Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Monty — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 18:00:43 GMT

Hi gang, what I meant was in my humble opinion, I believe if entered in the Belmont as a 3 year old Zenyatta could have won it, had she started as a 2 year old. Her heart & strength is still yet to be measured, as the longer the race the better/faster she gets, unlike most horses. I must mention again, bring on all "comers", the only thing that can beat Zenyatta is sickness,cold, and a sloppy/muddy track. She just does'nt have any experience with those elements ! I agree with others here, on a dirt track she is even stronger and faster. Pray for good weather,and we'll let the "queen" speak for herself. Easteners are in for a real treat! Go Zenyatta !!!

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

CPT — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 18:42:32 GMT

If better horses want to get the spot that the washington park handicap provides maybe they should enter the race. I do agree that the wrong horse won the race though. Giant Oak had a horrendous trip gettting caught wide early and moving early. However if Giant Oak won I would see no reason why he shouldn't enter the classic. Runs well enough over churchill to compete with the top guys.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

ruffianruns — Sat, 11 Sep 2010 02:28:23 GMT

Steve -

Thanks for highlighting Tell a Kelly's performance! Her burst out of the pack gave me chills.

And thanks for your take on MTB. As others have said, it was too weird seeing MTB that close to the leaders, how could he not tail off? He's a closer, let him be a closer. I just wonder if he's not in race shape considering the new weight he's carrying.

stevebiscuit - I love the idea of Rachel and Zen teaming up in the Classic! It's a VERY fun thought! I also think your take on QR is right - I don't think he'll have someone to track (unless some of the Candy Ride's show up) and that will hurt him.

Runfast159 - I can't believe Asmussen's luck. It is heartbreaking.

John - Unfortunately, the World Rankings don't work like the NTRA Poll. She'll be dropping until the Breeder's Cup and hopefully that performance will put her at the top among ACTIVE horses. Harbinger's number seems out of reach.

Oldie - Generally I agree that you can't fight a TB as it just ticks them off, but the first thing I thought of when I read your post was Sea The Stars and his Arc run last October. If you haven't seen that race, it's worth looking up. He fought his rider big time early in the race, so much so that I thought he was cooked.

Steve Haskin - You can spell my name wrong anytime!

Ann in Lexington - Thanks for sending me to Google again for more on Hindoo! And he won 19 in a row! How can race-offs NOT COUNT! Mind boggling!

Dr D - On watching Zenyatta's Classic - I never think she's going to get there either. I posted this on YouTube in the days after the race. I'd watched it a million times, and I never thought she would pull it off. The one thing that happens now EVERY time I watch the Classic - I just start laughing and I can't stop. I rewind it to around the quarter pole, watch again, and just laugh. It's just amazing.

Paula - I don't think you need to worry about Blame, at least not until the JCGC!

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

LStein — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 20:24:42 GMT

I would love to see Zen go to Tiznow. I don't know alot about pedigree breeding, but that baby would probibly be a spitting image of her since her and Tiznow look so similar. How cute, just like Rags' first baby looked just like her.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Robert — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 18:57:20 GMT

Ann in Lexington.....of course Giacomo "could" become a good sire, but the odds are against it. That's all I meant. Zenyatta is is too valuable to send her to him. A.P. Indy is getting up in years and she will probably go to him or Giants Causeway first. If Giacomo surprises and is a top sire, there is plenty of time to send Zenyatta to him. Giacomo did not show enough consistency on the track to make me believe he will be a top sire. I would go to Holy Bull before I went to Giacomo as he is a proven sire, but even he is not setting the world on fire. I am hard on stallions, but this toughness pays dividends. I am surprised every now and then, but as a rule, not too often.

Broad Brush "earned" his way to the top as Giacomo will have to do. It is possible, but I am not holding my breath.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

TerriV — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 17:54:25 GMT

Very well said, RachelLover! I agree with every word you said about Mine That Bird. My heart broke for him too and I was watching him instead of QR, even though I do love QR. I don't think MTB is a great horse but he is a very good one with so much heart. He could be an Einstein - around for years winning just enough for you to know that he can. What I don't understand is why he trains so well but falters during a race. The Woodward is a throw-out for him - on the pace and blinkers!! Give me a break! He's a closer.

I'm looking forward to reading all your commentary about the Breeders Cup, Steve. I haven't been since 1999 and can't wait to FINALLY experience Zenyatta.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Ann in Lexington (aka Pedigree Ann) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 16:50:47 GMT

Robert, stallions can surprise you. Ack Ack wasn't by a 'sire of sires', yet he was successful stallion and had a good sire son you may have heard of named Broad Brush. Candy Ride isn't by a 'sire of sires' in Argentina, yet he is throwing gobs of talented runners. Same thing for Cee's Tizzy and Tiznow. Do not get hung up on the 'sire of sires' thing, which is advertising-speak, not a breeding concept. In most cases, pedigree without performance isn't worth more, just because some of a sire's good performers became good sires.

Actually, many sires become successful BECAUSE they are not more of the same thing, like Ahonoora and his sons in Britain/Ireland and Monsun on the Continent.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

miles2go — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 15:10:07 GMT

Thank you for your obsevations and insight. As a successful handicapper for the last 8 yrs. I

am always amazed at how journalists keep making excuses for lucky and or bad horses. Mine the Bird is a GIII horse that had the perfect ride and conditions for

an upset win in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Biggest upset I have ever witnessed. Giacomo was more deserving than this horse. Quality Road, give me a break, will not make a mile and a quarter. Last yr

Rachel Alexandra beat a bunch of suspect horses and wins horse of the yr. Thank you big-headed East Coast Media. Most overrated horse in the last 40 yrs. Had Unrivaled

Belle over Rachel and obviously steamed on Blame over Quality Rd.

Good Luck next yr.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

markinsac — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:58:09 GMT

Steve from STl, Steward Cheney also said, "Who the owner is, who the jockey is, who the trainer is or what the odds were have no bearing on the inquiry." But he also said, "It would be unjust to disqualify a horse in a race, especially a grade 1 race for this infraction . . ." He stuck his foot in his mouth again! He said grade 1 races should merit more fluffing, if you could put it that way. He should keep his mouth shut! I just don't like the stewards taking advantage of the bettors. They shouldn't be allowed to call it one way then another way. The Del Mar stewards NEVER INTERVIEWED EITHER JOCKEY! I mentioned that TC is owned by Jenny Craig. Well she did a classy thing by apologizing Summer Movie's trainer, Sherman. I wonder how that made steward Cheney feel?

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 06:39:02 GMT

I know it's too early for Derby Dozen and Derby picks. I don't know if Jaycito will get to The Breeder's Juvenile but I think he has a great shot of making it into The Derby. He placed in the DM Futurity Sep 8th. I like his style and pedigree. I was hoping to see something from him and I did. Hoping he stays healthy. I'd like to see his trainer Mike Mitchell get to the 2011 Derby too. Might be tough to keep the jockey, Garcia though.

txhorsefan

Isn't it amazing how that happens. I've got to find some kind of chill pill or meditation technique or something before November. I think Slew's idea of a defibrillator makes sense too. I'm already nervous !!!!

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Kim — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 05:20:03 GMT

Monty, Zenyatta would not have won the Belmont 2 years ago, because she was a 4 year old at the time and thus was not eligible for that race.

When she was a 3 year old, the Belmont was won by Rags to Riches over Curlin. Zenyatta had yet to step into a starting gate at that point.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

steve from st louis — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 02:35:52 GMT

Markinsac, thanks for that info. I can't believe Steward Cheney made such a dumb remark. Well, come to think of it, nothing those stewards would say should surprise me. A black eye for Cali racing, indeed.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Smart Strike — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 02:34:41 GMT

Regarding whether Twirling Candy should have been DQ'd. There is no doubt he compromised the other horse and I do think the stewards were influenced by the money bet on him. People today are more afraid to do what is right. If you look at the great Dr.Fager's lifetime record it shows he ran out of the money only once. That one "out of the money" race was the Jersey Derby, which he finished 1st in, winning by 6 1/2 lengths and breaking the track record. He was disqualified for "crowding" horses on the clubhouse turn. Not even on the far turn but on the clubhouse turn. He wouldn't be taken down today.

I agree with those who say QR is not a true 1 1/4 horse. In the right circumstances he could probably win at the distance but I don't think Churchill Downs against Z, B, LaL and others is going to be that spot.

I really think LaL has a big time chance to win the Classic if Baffert can get him reqady. He just had his first work today since the Haskell. Baffert could train him up to it but that is asking a lot. I believe the horse is maturing into a big time runner though.

LaL, Blame and Z are 3 of the most tenacious runners we've seen and that would be a great race. None of them would quit.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

markinsac — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 02:18:09 GMT

Steve, that decision NOT to DQ Twirling Candy was a huge flub for California racing. Many here think the stewards took care of the Craigs who have ties to Del Mar. I have no problem with rich owners who contribute so much to the game, but shouldn't they and their horses have to play by the same rules as everybody else? Steward Scott Cheney stated that the incident happened so far away from the finish line, it had no bearing on the order of finish. Does that mean that ANY incident that occurs 5 furlongs from the wire should be overlooked? I'm talking about $10,000 claimers too. It was another black eye for California racing and I feel that those Del Mar stewards should be fired!

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

steve from st louis — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 02:16:44 GMT

Tim: You have no idea who you're "talking to" on the other end of these blogs. I know more than a few owners and trainers who spend time on some of these sites only when Haskin reports, not to mention vets, pinhookers, agents and some former National Turf Writers' Association members and a former head of the Turf Writers' Guild in Chicago of whom I'm particularly fond. Thumping your chest here, as the kids say, don't impress me much. Don't talk down to someone unless you're trying to help them up. There are other blogs on this site where that attitude is encouraged. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but the fact that your family rented out rooms to jocks and you "learned" from them has no bearing on your critique of Quality Road. I don't necessarily disagree with what you say, just how you said it.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

LStein — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 01:15:54 GMT

I'm sticking with the QUEEN all the way. Win, lose or dead heat she is and always will be my favorite racehorse. She is a complete original. There will never be another. LONG LIVE THE QUEEN!!!

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

txhorsefan — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 01:14:28 GMT

Very interesting article, Steve, and the comments are thought provoking as well. Trying to take into consideration the points that everyone is trying to make, I went back and watched the race on you-tube again and while I have a great deal of respect for Quality Road, I think I'll have to side with several of you who think the classic distance may be a little far for him. I do think he's a top horse and he's absolutely gorgeous to boot, but I'm not sure myself about the length he's willing to go. Of course, far be it from me to second guess those of you who are much more knowledgeable - it's just my feeling so far. Thank you, Steve, for bringing up Mine That Bird. My heart was aching for him during that race and I'm with all of you who are also hoping they will soon find the key that unlocks his talent. I do believe it is there, I think he is capable of so much more than he has shown us this year.

Giddyup - your comment about Tell A Kelly cracked me up! Thanks!

Dr. D - each time I watch one of Zenyatta's races my heart stops and I think she's not going to make it even though I've seen the race before and I know the outcome! She's trying to send me to an early grave - lol!

Celeste

txhorsefan

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Paula Higgins — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 01:08:36 GMT

Tim, I hope you're right. I tend to agree. My big worries are a sloppy track (I think they might scratch her if that happens) and Blame. He is a closer. I just hope he is a slower closer and her stride puts him away.

David Ingordo (the man who found her for Jerry and Ann Moss) is certain enough about her ability to win the BCC that he challenged Jason to a bet on his blog. As is well known, Jason is not her biggest fan.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 23:20:02 GMT

I just finished watching the replay of last year's Classic. It was one of the strangest feelings I've ever had. Even though I already knew what happened, while watching the replay I STILL didn't thinks she was going to get there in time. Unbelievable. And suddenly that name...Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, I can't stop singing Zenyattaaaaaaaaa.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Terri Z — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 23:12:43 GMT

Robert, I did not mean to infer that Zenyatta will be bred to Giacomo. I thought that there might be some agreement where to initially board her in Kentucky; Jerome Moss is on the board of directors at Santa Anita and Frank Stronach's Magna Corp owns Santa Anita. And of course, Stronach owns Adena Springs.

I just hope all the horses stay healthy and strong and that its a wonderful Breeders Cup Classic.

I would like to see Zen supercede the record set by the great Eclipse and then see her win the Ecipse award for horse the year.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Giddyup — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 22:51:50 GMT

There is no question Tell A Kelly was the star of the weekend. The last time I saw a female show that kind of acceleration she had my VISA card and was dashing off to a shoe sale.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Tim — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 21:51:46 GMT

People,unless you grew up at the track and starting handicapping at the age of 13 like I have,you don't know what you are looking at when you watch a race. QR ran against allowance horse and high priced claimers in the Woodward and still was in an all out drive coming home pretty slow his final eight. It was at a mile and an eighth and he wasn't pulling away from the field. At a mile and a quarter against legitamite Grade 1 competition he will be in big time trouble. Say all you want about trying to come up with a horse to beat Zenyatta but it aint happening man. First of all she is 5 lengths better on dirt and the further she goes the better gets. On synthetics she struggles with the surface but still wins under a hand ride while she is just beginning to gear up at the shorter distances. In the Classic she will be in full stride because of the distance which will make her appear as if she's stepping it up a notch like last years Classic. She's not taking it easy in races like the Hirsch. It's a combination of surface and distance. I know a little about the way horses run since we rented rooms to jockeys at my house in Beachmont in the seventies and eighties. I've learned quite a bit from them.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

SaratogaSinner — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 21:41:49 GMT

Just for the sake of pointing it out again, the track has been EXTREMELY deep this meet. If anybody is questioning Quality Road's ability, I think the condition of the track must be taken into consideration.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Marc — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 21:24:01 GMT

I think Quality road was workmanlike in his win--I honestly wasn't impressed because it was a weak field and perfect set-up---of course I can be wrong and he did only what needed but I didn't think he was awe inspiring. He will, to win the BC.

As for Zenyatta I love her and think her talent is unquestioned BUT what if we have a sloppy track? Does she run? Next not to jink her but she hasn't really had a bad trip other than slow paces up front and going wide. A horse coming from the clouds is always prone to get stopped at some time or jammed in with all sorts of run. Hopefully it won't happen.

Tell a Kelly on the other hand---Wow! Now my pick for her division but the Synth and Main to be answered.

re: Countdown to the Cup: The Road Keeps Going

Livesoutwest — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 20:44:13 GMT

Yeah, and Onion was outfinishing Secretariat in the Whitney because it's such a test of champions. And trainers want to make sure their top stock peaks in August.

Please.

I don't know if Quality Road can hold off Zenyatta or Blame at 1 1/4 or not, but I do know you haven't seen his best race yet.