Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 15:44:20 GMT

ABF: Monmouth. But I think at least one of "wives" is in Fla now...and Colmus is at Gulfstream. Should be a hoot!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

janejumbomargarita — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 19:48:45 GMT

Wow....what a great list. This will help me for sure in the Road To The Roses online fantasy game! Thanks for the very early heads-up! I like Manicero out of Mass Media and the Smarty baby Rogue Romance! Good luck to everyone!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 03:58:50 GMT

Slew,

Yes the "wife" exacta thing was very funny. What are the chances of horses with names like that happening again! I think that was down here by me in the Meadowlands in NJ?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Ranagulzion — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 02:45:58 GMT

COLDFACTS,

You are becoming a spin doctor. Your post dated Jan 9, 2011 9:04am is there for all to see that I didn't misread your comments.

Buckpasser was one of the greatest broodmare sire ever. I haven't studied the posible reasons why he or some of the other notable sires failed to throw Derby winners, but I have studied AP Indy and made my conclusion. Be my guest and prove me wrong if you can.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 14:06:05 GMT

By the way Coldfacts, it is you and Gunbow that have forced me to research these horses. Thank you.

I find I have no adequate discussion unless I do my home work. In the Derby hopefuls, I've created a chart for myself that includes "Back Class"...in this case, Mr. P....Slew...Sec..

.Roberto..Sib Exp..Northern Dancer, Affirmed..etc...which is how I come up with so many Mr. P's.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 13:46:18 GMT

Coldfacts: Of the 35 I have so far, 19 3 year olds trace their bloodline to Mr. Prospector:

Alternation, Archarcharch,

Astrology,Beamer,BAT,Brethren, Coil,J P’s Gusto, Jaycito,

Justin Phillip,Pants On Fire,Rogue Romance,Smash,Soldat,Tapizer,

The Factor,Wilkinson,…AZ Warrior,Awesome Feather

It's a cold fact!.......;)

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 13:35:14 GMT

Coldfacts: I said your information is valid...and then you argue with me that it is. What are you arguing about when we agree? You say that I'm unable to justify saying that your information is correct? Whaaaa?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 14:13:13 GMT

ABF: I sort of doubt (though anything can happen) few will top Larry Colmus and his call between 1st and 2nd place horses, My Wife Know Everything and The Wife Doesn't know.

There's always, "Uncle Sam and Uncle Mo Stay Thirsty, with their Pants On Fire, and jump into Heron Lake, as Wilkinson slices through the Coil to battle with the Shadow Warrior, while Sherriff Cogburn just squints at Casper's Ghost."

Nope...just not as funny as Colmus!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Off the Wagon — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 04:51:40 GMT

I'm watching the Bluegrass Cats.... no one mentioned Kathmanblu in the Oaks discussion above, and I agree with Steve that Zayda is a good addition to the watch list. This Freshman sire had an awesome year!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Coldfacts — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 03:28:16 GMT

Slew,

“Coldfacts does present valid information”

You make these wild statements that you are unable to justify. Let me set the stage for a question to follow.

My posts like most are comprised of opinions and verifiable facts/information. It is widely known that everybody has as opinion. Opinions can therefore be challenged. Information presented in posts, assuming it is correct can be verified. If verifiable information is presented to support an opinion, why would there be any question about the validity of the information. The information is either relevant or irrelevant. Now! What might be relevant to me might just be irrelevant to you.

I would appreciate you citing an example where I have provided invalid information. I would also appreciate the basis on which you deemed the information invalid.

Your claim about Bold Ruler not being a stamina influence was put to the test with the information I presented. Instead of revising your position on this issue you provided a very soft response. How can one stallion and his sons be so fortunate to be bred to mares that have the requisite stamina influence to produce so many winners of TC races? Why are other stallions not so fortunate? It must be overwhelming clear that the common denominator is Bold Ruler. You are entitled to your opinion but not the cold facts.

“And here's one for coldfacts...of those (so far) 33 possibilities, 18 of them are related to Mr. Prospector”

If you have 33 colts from the Mr. Prospector sire line on watch, you have clearly not done your homework. There are only four that figure at this time. Monzon, Riverting Reason, Premier Pegasus, Rouge Romance. The RAN sire line appears very soft for 2011. The AP Indy line is the hot line at the moment. There is one colt from the Ribot line that closed from another zip code for second in a 9F race at Gulfstream. I am anxiously awaiting his next start. His dam was sired d by Dixieland Band who was just one Big Brown away from being a triple derby wining broodmare sire.

Ranagulzion,

“I stated that Alydar was an elite sire and far more successful than Affirmed. Coldfgacts thought that I was being facetious.”

Since you have chosen to misstate the fact, let me set the records straight. I listed a few stallions that did not sire a derby winner in spite of being bred to elite mares i.e., Secretariat, Affirmed, Storm Cat, Deputy Minister and Northern Dancer. You objected to the inclusion of Affirmed citing that Alydar was the better stallion. How does the sire of two derby winners’ merits inclusion in a list that highlights stallions that have not sired derby winners? Alydar was irrelevant to the point being made. Affirmed like Secretariat was a TC winner and the most successful horse the Raise A Native sire line. This sire line has dominated the TC series of races and the most accomplished horse from the line has made no contribution. How could anyone object to the inclusion of Affirmed in the above list? Alydar was the better stallion. There was never any dispute regarding this.. However, to suggest that Affirmed does not belong on my list is simply crazy.

NB: How many derby winners did Dr. Fager, Buckpasser, Damascus, Citation, Round Table and Nashua sire? It’s safe to assume they got some of the top mare available during their stud careers. Could it be they also possess the late development genes?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Tonka's Destiny — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 00:53:04 GMT

Steve, thanks for the list and the insight. I agree with Betsy, Jim, HPHP, Witty Gal, John T and Amy that To Honor and Serve is my favorite. And Yes Amy, the name has special meaning to me as well, since it has been my pleasure for the last 23 years to serve the people of this great nation, in the Army. And I too, would like to thank Amy for her service.

I hope that Ranagulzion is wrong about his prediction and hop that To Honor and Serve can win the Triple Crown, and not just for the opportunity to get him to stop blogging.{:-) The debate between him and Slew is entertaining, to some extent. That having been said, it looks like a very exciting trail to travel this year, in my humble opinion. Thanks again, Steve, for the blog.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 23:33:53 GMT

Slew,

I can just imagine the Churchill track announcer if Pants On Fire comes barrelling down the home stretch in the Derby or we get an Uncle Trifecta!!!!!! The stretch call will be pretty funny!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 13:49:33 GMT

And darn it, Steve, because of your latest blog, I just had to add more 3 year olds (most notably Heron Lake-love the breeding-liking the instinct).

Now I'm up to 35 with Seattle Slew influencing 17 of them.(Bernardini has 6 of those) Mr. P. stays at 18.

Every day that goes by, I continue to become more confused. Watching them run will be the only thing that will whittle down my list. (or add to it?)

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 13:24:55 GMT

Ranagul: Before I get to damsires, I'll start with maturation. Most horses are not mature until they are at least 4. (Zenyatta, Cigar, Rock Hard Ten).

Some are quite precocious, and appear to develop early at 3. (Rachel A, Secretariat, Seattle Slew). Some are not precocious but are forced to develop earlier than their maturity might allow. As a result, they are injured earlier. (Eskendereya, Take Control, I Want Revenge). AP Indy has the genetic propensity for precosity (via Slew + Secretariat), but he, himself, developed normally. Sometimes, he'll have the occasional foal who matures earlier (because he can git it) ala Bernardini and Mineshaft. But often he has a foal with normal maturity, (4yrs) like Pulpit and Stephen Got Even. The conclusion becomes that AP Indy's foals mature normally, but he can, and does, occasionally have a precocious foal who becomes a super star at 3. That is his early genetic influence.

As far as the unimportance of a damsire..that's simply foolish. Most breeders can explain to you just how important the influence of the dam really is in breeding.

Sea the Stars was a Cape Cross colt whose dam Urban Sea won the Prix de l'Arc and was sired by Miswaki but carried both Mr Prospector and Buckpasser genes. When folks talk about Cigar, it's not Palace Music they discuss. It's his dam sire Seattle Slew that's remembered. When people talk about Storm Cat, damsire Secretariat becomes most prominent over Storm Bird. These damsires were never just "along for the ride". And when you're hyping a colt like Uncle Mo, it's not his sprinting sire Indian Charlie who you base your hopes on for the Derby. At 10f, it's the dam side of his family who carries the influence of stamina with Roberto and Northern Dancer. They're not just along for the ride. They're THE ride.

As far as 1978, yup...my favorite was Alydar, and in 1973, my favorite was Sham....but at least I did get it right in 1977. I always loved my Slew. ;)

It's been fun. Can we now move on to the other Derby contenders. Stepping up in class, Soldat is promising, along with Wilkinson. Even Pants On Fire (what a name) has some speed. Beamer lacks maturity, but by May we may see better. Now Tapizar is really fast, and has the breeding to carry his speed over a distance. He has enough to put him ahead of Uncle Mo; I just want to see what he does on a track that's not souped up.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Ranagulzion — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 23:18:16 GMT

Slew,

You obviously haven't been paying attention over the years. Every year AP has a slew of runners that promise much but fail to deliver either because they are not ready in time for the first Saturday in May or they break down under the duress of being forced by trainers trying to make the Derby. Its the same old same old story. It will be no different this year. Throwing Bernadini into the equation surely spices things up because he has a few that already look very promising, but I'm confident enough to take the gamble against him being a first crop Derby winner-producing sire based uopn the failure of AP Indy and his other sons so far.

I've already dealt with the Dam sire issue but in case you forgot here we go again. Super Saver is the product of Maria Mon, a former champion 2YO and decendant of Raise A Native via Derby winner Majestic Prince. Maria's Mon (deceased) in a very short career at stud produced 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos from his first crop and 2010 Derby winner Super Saver. AP Indy as broodmare sire to Super Saver is a "tag-along" (piggy-backing on a prolific Derby winner producing line). Interestingly, Super Saver's half brother Brethren is also sired by a Derby-winner-producing influence Distorted Humor that produced Derby winner Funny Cide from his first crop. Here again AP is in for the "ride" but I will give him a credit if his daughter Supercharger repeats the Derby winning feat with Brethren since that would be a very rare accomplishment indeed. How much more help does AP need? I'll admit that there are sires like Dixieland Band, Deputy Minister and Secretariat that have proven themselves as extraordinary broodmare sires. However that is a completely different category from a stallion's performance as a straight sire. This point you refuse to admit because it doesn't help your beloved AP Indy to become a Derby winner producing sire. Sorry I can't help you any further on this point. Let experience be your teacher (if you pay attention).

Regarding Alydar, I have mentioned him in other posts. In fact Coldfacts and I had a very recent discussion in which I stated that Alydar was an elite sire and far more successful than Affirmed. He thougt that I was being facetious. At least you and I can agree about Alydar (LOL).

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 17:14:25 GMT

And here's one for coldfacts...of those (so far) 33 possibilities, 18 of them are related to Mr. Prospector.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 14:41:54 GMT

As far as your odds go Ran, I'm looking at 33 hopefuls (there are more I haven't accounted for yet)for the Derby (which includes 2 fillies). Of the 33, 11 connect to A P Indy, 5 of those through Bernardini.

And then there's the brilliant Point Given who has a solo act with Coil. You never know!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 13:49:19 GMT

Ranagul...actually, to underscore just how important a dam sire is...it was Secretariat's daughter,Terlingua who foaled Storm Cat, who sired Tabasco Cat, who won the Preakness and Belmont... but to you...he is unproven. Poker was the damsire of 2 Derby winners, Slew and Silver Charm. A P Indy was the damsire to Super Saver. So you actually lost your bet last year. In all your talk about proven sires, I find it odd you never mention Alydar, who sired 2 Ky Derby winners, Alysheba and Strike the Gold, or Unbridled who sired Grindstone, who sired Birdstone who was sire to MTB and SB.

Now, all you seem to want to do is measure (hmmm) instead of discuss probabilities. You are too quick to dismiss winners of other legs of the Triple Crown, and seem not to notice that most of the runners last year were mostly descendants of Mr. Prospector, Seattle Slew (via AP Indy) and Secretariat.(via Indy). When I consider the Triple Crown, I'm always looking for the horse that can go 12f. As much as I like Uncle Mo, unless he's a freak, (which he may be) I don't see him taking the Belmont. Which makes me lean toward horses that can get 12f...and sires that already have..thus I'm still leaning on Indy....Bernardini..

...and just maybe Vindication.

Darn those Jets! Now the "stealers" have a chance at getting 2 rings ahead of the Cowboys. Darn, darn, darn. My single consolation is that they have to try and do it at Cowboy stadium. Go Packers!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 05:13:12 GMT

Slew

I'm almost being forced to root for a son or daughter of Bernardini to win the Derby. I was a big fan of Bernardini's, and he certainly looks like a sire capable of producing a Derby winner. We're going to see newer sires siring a Derby winner, of that I have no doubt, and at any time a brand new theme of Derby winner sire patterns could emerge. Why not start this year? I've been a Steeler's fan since Big Ben went there. I followed him in college thinking he was the closest I've seen to Joe Montana in field awareness and instincts. So go Da Steelers. And I know that you are just having fun but it is true fun. Or Real Fun. I hope you are eating your oatmeal and not just pulling the wool over my eyes.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Ranagulzion — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 19:46:52 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Just be patient my friend. Our little dispute will be settled on the first saturday in May. It is not impossible but so improbable that I'm willing to quit as a blogger on here if Bernadini becomes a first crop Derby winner producing sire. If my opinion can be proven on the track to be so ridiculously baseless i'll quit. Plain and simple. I wouldn't say Bernadini will never throw a Derby winner because he could possibly be an exception to "my AP Indy rule" but I'm willing to gamble against him joining the illustrious band of first crop Derby winner producing sires. Its a probability thing based upon the record of his sire line.

Slew,

You'd like us to believe that you're so knowledgeable about this game. Please do me a favour and name ONE son of Secretariat that sired a Kentucky Derby winner, just one will do, my erudite friend (LOL). As for 'Queeen' Zenyatta, my thoughts are fairly well known/documented on these blogs. She could have been three time HOTY with smarter racing strategy but I'll let sleeping dogs lie. The thing I regret most about Zenyatta is how unnecessarily polarising she's been made to become, but I'll rest my case. She is retired and the 2010 HOTY (good for her but an injustice to Blame). May she have a wonderful and successful career as a broodmare. Hopefully the connections will avoid a mating with AP Indy so that she, being a Raise A Native line broodmare will have a reasonable shot at producing a formidable Triple Crown aspirant.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 19:37:22 GMT

Dr D...Thanks but I think I'm just having fun. The name Beamer actually reminds me of BMW..the car without the muscle of the Porsche. (Slew) For me, I still don't have a pick for a Derby favorite. Coldfacts does present valid information, I just don't always agree with his conclusions. Ranagul just needs a better foundation. The most exuberant display of "unbridled joy" I've ever seen was Carl O'Callahan at Dubai with Kinsale King. It was sooo contagious. Oh well...back to my oatmeal...it's getting cold.

Looking for the Packers, and no Cowboy fan will cry if the Stee.. lose to the Jets...but somehow that's really iffy yet.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 16:41:59 GMT

Slew

Your words of wisdom, your insight, your humor, and your knowledge are much appreciated. Very interesting what you said about Beamer. He is very young and I hope they go slow with him. I did notice the lack of muscle definition. Definitely a competitor with talent but needs time and a cautious approach. Love the name. Reminds me of the bookworm on Twilight Zone. And love the trainer, who gave us the greatest post race moment in Derby history. I will never forget that one. Unbridled joy from the darling Frances Genter along with Nafzger's enthusiasm. And their hug and kiss. A priceless moment. I wonder if they named the horse "Unbridled Joy" after that moment.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 14:18:42 GMT

By the way, Soldat was quite impressive. Beamer may be the youngest colt/filly in the race to the Derby..but I like him too..he just hasn't acquired the muscles he'll need yet. Wilkinson was sharp..along with Pants on Fire.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Slew — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 14:15:49 GMT

Ranagul..I will be sad to see you go. A sire is not proven by the Derby..he's considered proven by graded stakes winners. Oh yes, I know you have your own little world of ranking...it's just a shame that it's in conflict with the rest of the world's rankings. By the way, Secretariat never sired a Ky Derby winner (his sons did), but it certainly didn't make him an unproven sire. And you want to tell me you've never heard terms like..."feeling one's oats".."off his oats"..."sowing his wild oats". Come out of your little cave, dear...there's a much bigger picture out there than your myopic vision seems to allow. After all...you did choose to never notice Zenyatta, and she's been in your face for 3 years, big and bold and beautiful.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby ProMo

Coldfacts — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 12:15:45 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“Bernadini is an unproven sire as far as Triple Crown aspirants are concerned”

I think you should revisit the above statement as you have totally misunderstood the point I was making. All he stallions cited in my post were first crop sires. They were all unproven as far as Triple Crown aspirants were concerned. In spite of this status, they became sire of winners of TC races. Your adamance that Bernardini will not sire a derby winner from his first crop is puzzling. Others with lees pedigree and racing record achieved this feat. What disqualifies Bernardini? To Honor And Serve appears to be his best prospect. His Hall Of Fame trainer has stated that this colt is his best hope to win the coveted race. You do not even have him in your Derby dozen. I implore you to restore balance to your analysis. There is nothing to be derived from stubbornness.