Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

philly — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 19:14:08 GMT

Will someone please address the catastrophic injuries at Santa Anita in the recent weeks? I am angered and shocked at the numbers. Stakes (Tapizar, Lieve), Allowance (Magic Launch), Maidens (Super, Redemsky, Destined Journey), just to name a few. How many more "vanned off"? Even in morning works! Turf or dirt, long or short, stakes or claimers, something is desperately wrong. And when will they create a new turf course for sprints/extended sprints that does not require crossing the main track?? How many times do we see horses react by jumping or bolting?? That course is just plain INSANE. Please, someone... do something to correct the surfaces. If i were an owner in CA, I'd move my horse to another state.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 15:25:00 GMT

I hope The Factor is not this years version of Conveyance. He also reminds me of a horse Bobby Frankel trained named First Defence who was a sprinter. Maybe The Factor can learn to relax a bit and rekindle my hopes that I had for The Pamplemousse a few years back. With the new Santa Anita dirt I just don't know what to make of the fast times. Even if The Factor can not stretch out for a two turn race, he will surely be one of the best sprinters around. And with Miswaki on the dam's side I would love to see him run on the grass. What a race California would have with The Factor lining up against Sidneys Candy at 1 mile!

Sway Away just blew me away when I noticed his ears prick up and his stride lengthen, he looked like he was flying. It looked efortless with his head way up in the air he just gobbled up ground and caught The Factor rather quickly. Both of his races were very impressive and I only hope that he can stretch out and win the Santa Anita Derby. If he can stretch out, I have him right up there with Dialed In. Both horses run with their heads up high and seem to motor past the competition with push button ease.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

John T — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 22:08:16 GMT

Forbidden Apple

Yes I was impressed with Sway

Aways late kick and am looking forward to seeing what he can do as

the time is coming to stretch out further.March should be an interesting month as all the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby

will have at least one run before it is over.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 19:29:00 GMT

Forbidden Apple

Poor City Cool who prides himself on his speed tried to keep up with The Factor and was crushed. He finished last, well beaten. They will have to repair his ego. To set those early fractions(43.41, 1:07.31) and finish up like he did says something about The Factor's ability. He wasn't fully conditioned for this race and this will move him forward. If they can't slow him down he will have distance limitations somewhere along the line however. I was a little more impressed with Sway Away live than I was with the replay. How far he can carry that closing speed is still a question mark despite his breeding. Still, I like him better than I do The Factor for The Derby at this point. It's going to take a lot of work to slow down The Factor enough for 10f. They might run out of time. The reason they may progress gradually to longer is that his stride is so efficient. The Preakness is possible also or they may give up and make him a star sprinter. His speed is phenominal. Rogue Romance live I thought less of than I did in the replay. In the replay it looked like he could progress from there. Still not sure if 10f will suit him as is the case with most of them.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Coldfacts — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 19:18:03 GMT

Steve,

“but he’s going to have to come home faster than :38 2/5 and :13 3/5 for the final eighth.”

The fractions of the Lewis were 22.84, 45.64, 1:09.22, 1:35.07 and 1:48.63. Coming home in 38 2/5 and: 13 3/5 for the final three eighths and eight are entirely reasonable considering how fast the first 6F were. Listed below some of times for 2010 9F preps:-

FL Derby - 23.21, 46.46, 1:10.76, 1:36.09, 1:49.19

AK Derby - 22.65, 46.26, 1:10.75, 1:36.52, 1:49.37

SA Derby - 24.00, 48.50, 1:12.33, 1:35.55, 1:48.00

B/Grass - 23.89, 47.96, 1:12.33, 1:36.63, 1:48.69

Sham - 23.62, 47.61, 1:12.22, 1:36.52, 1:48.72

Florida Derby was a full second slower at the 6F and Ice Box came in 38.43/13.13

SA Derby was three full seconds slower at the 6F and Sidney’s Candy came home in 35.67/11.45

Blue Grass was three full seconds slower at the 6F and Stately Victor came home in 36.36/12.06

Sham was three full seconds slower at the 6F and Alphies Bet came home in 36.50/12.20

The SA Derby, Bluegrass and Sham were contested on synthetic tracks. However, the times illustrate the point I am trying to make. The last three eights and eight for those races were run in an average of 36 & 12 seconds plus due the fact that the 6Fs were run in 1:12 plus. Compare the FL & AK Derbies run two seconds faster at the 6F point. Ice Box & Lion Of David came home in 38.43/13.13 and 38.62 & 12.85 respectively.

There have been six clocking of 1:10 plus for 6F in six derby preps contested at 9F over the last 4YRS (2007-2010) The Pamplemousse 2009 SA Derby;(37.57 & 12.77 ) Line Of David 2010 AK Derby; (38.62 & 12.85) The remaining four time were recorded in the FL Derby (2007-2010) In three of those 4yrs the average times (38.23 & 13.17) Quality Road Track record time was 37.06 & 12.44.

From the above the closing splits recorded in the 2011 Bob Lewis are consistent with those for races run with the 6F split at 10 seconds plus or less. No 9F prep in the last 4YRS was run with a 6F in 1:09 plus.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 18:22:28 GMT

Was anyone else impressed with the explosive late kick by Sway Away in the San Vicente? All of you Afleet Alex fans sure have something to be excited about. And his dam is by Seattle Slew, that performance has me excited for the Santa Anita Derby!

Joe,

Rogue Romance ran okay, he should improve next time out along with Santiva and Mucho Macho Man. But Dialed In is already a fire breathing stud, he just needs to break better next time out.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Betsy — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 17:34:16 GMT

THAS is ready to roll, working a bullet 4 furlongs at Payson yesterday.

Stay Thirsty is working very well for his 3 year old debut as well, furlongs in 1:00 and change, breezing.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Betsy — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 17:32:07 GMT

Does anyone know if Heron Lake is ok? He's Zito's other talented 3 year old. I know he was not going to make the Derby, but he showed a lot in his debut; thing is, he hasn't worked in 2 weeks, so I'm afraid he may be hurt.

Thanks!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 14:08:56 GMT

I would like to point out that Mucho Macho Man ran an improved race, running back in 20 days after his Holy Bull 'speed and fade' debacle. That's what usually happens second off the layoff. Blinkers off and an easy pace didn't hurt, either.

I liked Santiva's race; first off the layoff, he made move to reach MMM and got tired, which he was entitled to do. Next out he should be stronger, if they don't wait too long and waste the fitness improvement of this race.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 14:01:52 GMT

Paula,

Tapizar had a mental meltdown in the paddock, was rank and pulled his jockey through insane fractions, and got justifiably tired. All young horses have some bone chips and/or flakes in their knees at this stage and few require removal; I see this 'explanation' as a face-saving move, to preserve stallion value.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

John T — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 02:17:03 GMT

I could not have been more impressive with Inglorious finishing second to a 3/5 shot in

the Rachel Alexandra running on well at the finish.She should go on to have a very promising year.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

EUGENE LEVEY — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 01:25:54 GMT

Mike Repole told me at the affair AWARDS that he intends to come to TAMPA for the TAMPABAY DERBY.i TOLD HIM that i would give him my table.Now i see that he is thinking of that mile race at gulfstream the same day..On another note: i like

TO HONOR AND SERVE

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

tcc — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 22:45:36 GMT

Didn't the Risen Star just raise Dialed In's star a bit higher?

Slew 20 Feb 2011 10:02 AM

It probably raised To Honor And Serve also, as MMM chased the THAS home finishing 2nd twice.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Slew — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 15:02:22 GMT

Well...Pants On Fire maybe needed to have them lit. Beautiful movement from MMM, RR, and Santiva. Machen still seemed a bit tired from his previous runs. Most impressive runs at the FG came from Bind and Kathmanblu. I will anxiously wait to see Bind's next run; it should prove interesting. Didn't the Risen Star just raise Dialed In's star a bit higher?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

JOE — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 13:50:41 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

You were right and I am still trying to wonder what Julien was doing the entire race. The horse was not in the race at all.

tcc and Steve,

Lets just see how Ghost Is Clear and Corey runs this race. After his last race I would like te see him be ridden ride out the last sixteenth of the mile whip no whip at all and see if the horse is wanting more ground.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Steve Haskin — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 06:37:32 GMT

tcc, they have always been very high on him. If he wins the Southwest you wont have to try to get him on the list.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

tcc — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 01:57:09 GMT

Steve,

I am really trying to get Ghost Is Clear on the list for the K. Derby. I think this horse is a big sleeper and is just now showing his ability.

JOE 16 Feb 2011 8:40 PM

He is listed in the entries for the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn race #9, on Monday(2-21).

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

cuban chef de race — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 00:12:46 GMT

why don't you show my comments?now i realize how smart i am ,okey i hope to see you in the winners circle and believe me i know the game.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

cuban chef de race — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 00:04:28 GMT

rachel if you see me in person you are going to forget those claiming horses.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

cuban chef de race — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 23:25:41 GMT

mr haskin i do admire you as a handicapper i do remember when you did mention charismatic as a possible derby winner because i did try to compare his sire summer squall a half to a. p .indy and storm cat then i did realize that summer squall was better breed then storm cat,i know horses belief me but i notice when somebody has talent.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 06:46:15 GMT

I don't know why the title of this article makes me think of "splish splash I was takin' a bath long about a Saturday night." Some of the most successful up and comers are going to be ones taken off of the Derby Trail. Head em up and move em out. Get along little dogie.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Bumper — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 00:37:58 GMT

It is highly unlikely to develop a Derby horse now who hasn't won yet, but tomorrow's 6th at Gulfstream has several well bred colts and don't be surprised if someone emerges from this race further down the 3 year old classic trail.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Slew — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 00:18:28 GMT

I really neglected to mention Santiva only because I have not yet seen him run. In an interview, Borel said he's flying back tomorrow to ride Elite Alex on Monday, and he's excited about his horse.

Perhaps if Uncle Mo ran 8 races as a 2 year old and won most of them, you might want to compare him to Secretariat. But he ran 3 races, and has not yet run this year. He's a beautiful horse, and he's fast...but he'll need more than that to go last distance needed, and stay sound on the TC trail.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

NoMo — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 21:50:49 GMT

Jon-

That was funny!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: A Tap Top Flop

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 20:06:51 GMT

Jon,

Keep dreaming, Uncle Mo will never again be mentioned with Secretariat after the upcoming 3 triple crown races.