Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 19:48:56 GMT

Forbidden Apple

There are a few developing quite nicely, and at least one of them is going to be flying late, and blow by Mo in The Derby. Mo won't be facing scrubs. They are underestimating the competition based on their inability to understand the progression of some 3yo. And they obviously think that going into The Derby undefeated is important. Oh well. Mo should provide a target anyway. And a win is possible for him.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 15:51:46 GMT

Dr. Drunkinbum,

Your last post simply spells it all out for me with the handling of Uncle Mo. His connections are extremely confident and are taking the other colts lightly. They better hope that he has enough stamina for the KY Derby. I hope you are right about Dialed In racing in an allownace race soon, he sure does need another tightener.

Alex's Big Fan,

You are correct, Soldat is looking like a champion, he is beautiful. Soldat's tomlinson numbers are incredible, he can win on any surface. I can not wait for the Santa Anita Derby and the powerful kick of Sway Away. His last race was freakish and he is so strong, just full of muscle.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 08:37:27 GMT

Alex'sBigFan

Good idea on the animation. As far as Alex's kids- Don't count your chickens before they hatch. I'm not counting Elite Alex out quite yet. I like them both. I'm light years away from knowing who I'll be betting on and rooting for in The Derby. I hope they all get there safe and come out safe and it will be a great race. I hope Mo makes it there. I don't know why with only two 3yo preps they are choosing the T. Writer as one. I'm pretty sure Dialed In will run before the 12th, maybe this weekend. I guess they think that Mo is so good that he doesn't need race conditioning or quality opponenents to get ready for The Derby. I don't like it but if their goal is just to win The Derby they might pull it off but I doubt it the way this group is progressing (assuming they all stay healthy and enter.)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Alex'sBigFan — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 23:40:40 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

Soldat is looking like much the champion to me. He can go wire to wire like his grandpappy Danzig, Hard Spun's father. Hard Spun must have had a high Tomlinson figure as he fared so well in the Monmouth slop. Wonder if Soldat is a mudder? Hope Soldat can rate off the pace too like Dialed In, and how he would fare against Dialed In's explosion. I like McLaughlin as a trainer too, classy trainer, in my top 10. Yeah, this Timely Useless is getting more confusing. It throws a wrench into the whole thing with Mo. Slew noticed his galloping style, hard instead of gliding. You are right, if he wins against 4 or 5 horses in the Timely and Wood, it does not guarantee a Churchill win no matter how much he loves the track there. Soldat's and Dialed In's resumes, pre-Derby, are looking more impressive. I told you Sway Away was the better son of Afleet Alex.

Dr. D.,

Too funny about Mo going in a parade on a float to the Timely Useless or Rider! Someone should animate all these great bloggers' funny horse stuff and barn conversations in a Bloodhorse Child's Edition. What a way to get kids interested in racing! I see a lot of kids at Monmouth now every year. The big mystery remains the Timely Writer was written for Mo just in the nick time, but why and for what purpose?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Slew — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 18:28:30 GMT

Coldfacts: Gee...we agree on something ;)

I like Mo but could never climb on his bandwagon, and I couldn't figure out why not until I went back and watched all his races. Then I knew...it was his stomp.

I still have confidence in THAS. I really like his efficient gliding motion, and I think the FOY was just to get rid of the cobwebs, and I'm not about to discount him yet. Rogue Romance and Soldat both evince a beautiful running style. Now we'll move into March, and it should prove very interesting.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Aluminaut — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 17:37:17 GMT

Paula,

His name was Tiznow.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 05:19:49 GMT

Forbidden Apple

I'm based on the West Coast, near an excellent Derby Fever Clinic that I have failed to make use of. I didn't make use of the Mayo Clinic for my mayonaise addiction either when I lived near it. Some afflictions are better left alone. I hear the treatment for Derby Fever is brutal. Dialed In-so if that turns out to be the case then I'll be rooting against him. He may be talented enough to pull it off though.(2 races as a 3yo pre-Derby) At this point I'm having difficulty imagining Soldat not being in the top three in The Derby. Sway Away is one I like but need to see more of. Kiaran McGlaughlin is an excellent trainer and man and I would love to see him and his team win a Derby. Long ways to go still. I don't really start to narrow it down until the big preps are over, then it's all about how they are working out and looking from there. The earliest I've made up my mind is the Wed before The Derby. It's usually on Fri or Sat. Mar 12 is when we'll see where Jaycito is at. Some of them will surprise later as they are in the midst of a gradual progression. And some seem to pop up out of nowhere sometimes, ready to run the race of their life. The only thing I know for sure is that this is my favorite time of year. Sometimes I wish the preps could go on forever. I've started much earlier than I used to, following the trail. I start with 2yo in July now. I found the withdrawals between The Belmont and January to be too severe, so it has pretty much become year-round for me now on the Derby Trail. I've got a sturdy mule, and he has a stubborn mule and we ride the trail together. All else becomes secondary to the quest to find the Derby winner at the end of the dusty, rattlesnake infested trail. We've found some gold along the way though.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

cuban chef de race — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 04:01:50 GMT

every year you see the same trainers who have won the derby before getting hammered in the future bets and that is okay because there is always a first time for the others.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

cuban chef de race — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 03:31:32 GMT

stay thirsty has one of the best pedigree this year overall his botton line with storm bird,Roberto,art and letters etc that is class and stamina also his sire bernardini who i think is going to represent his sire AP indy with honor and is out working his stable mate uncle mo,he is a better price then many false horses you see this year he is not my choice but merits more respect.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

cuban chef de race — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 03:10:48 GMT

if jaycito is 21x1 gourmet dinner most be 5x2,victory gallop won the belmont but fortyniner grandson trippi is better sire then gallop,they are playing the trainer big mistake my friend.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

cuban chef de race — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:59:11 GMT

the only reason i see the field as the favorite is because pletcher has the maiden cal nation unrace at 2,borrel has the mount on elite alex a 17 hands colt,and sway away closed like a cheetah on the santa anita expressway,this are the only reasons i do see in that field to tell you the truth.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

cuban chef de race — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:45:16 GMT

remember when the experts said to win the derby the horse most be moving forward and have more then two preps?,well street sense and mine that bird don't fit this profile and the last five derby winners had only 2 preps.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:14:41 GMT

Woodrow

At this point I would have to concur with your assessment of Zito skipping the FOY with Dialed In. It appeared to me to be the perfect opportunity for the two turn race that he wants, and would have been a good test and conditioner. Too many trainers nowadays are too afraid of missing The Derby and baby their star horses rather than getting them ready to win The Derby. There aren't too many John Nerud's anymore either, although Al Stall would appear to be one. The trainers that have gotten their Derby Fever vaccinations, and believe in a path to greatness that doesn't necessarily incorporate The Derby, or feel the best path to greatness is to bypass The Derby. Soldat won the FOY easily. My feeling is that if he was pressed more or challenged that he would have responded and run even faster. With Dialed In in the race we might have seen something really special, maybe a tremendous duel and learned more about both horses also. Only time will tell with Dialed In. Soldat is on the perfect path. He appears to have a great deal of natural stamina, and the competition of the Florida Derby should set him up nicely for The Derby.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

cuban chef de race — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:07:53 GMT

remember when soldat ran at 2 on wet tracks he loves?well i did notice that when the pace is fast he tend to loose ground slowly,because the derby pace will not be made for him.and my second concern about this nice colt is that the florida derby will be his third consecutive 9 furlong's race and he needs to improve that time and final 1/8 on a fast track in the florida derby,because there are some speed balls waiting for him in the shadows,we need two more rounds okey?.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:04:19 GMT

Dr. Drunkinbum,

Are you based on the west coast or east coast, just curious? I can not get past my top three as of February 27. I love the way Dialed In explodes late in his races, he will welcome a race at 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 miles. I just made a call again today and my source tells me that Dialed In will train up to the FL Derby.

Soldat has run hard in all of his 7 career races on dirt and turf. If he stays healthy, I will be looking forward to his presence in the 2012 Dubai World Cup. I can not say enough about team McLaughlin, and this includes his brother Neal and his sister in law Trish McLaughlin. Kiaran,Neal, and Trish are all very professional and deserve a KY Derby victory. So far as a 3 year old Soldat has made everything look easy. I believe the FOY took nothing out of him and he will be even better in the FL Derby. People are saying he got an easy lead, this is true, but he will rate just fine in his next start.

Sway Away is my X factor who still needs to prove himself beyond 7f. The recent issue of Bloodhorse showed up at my doorstep yesterday and Sway Away looks like solid muscle. The Santa Anita Derby field better have their running shoes on because Sway Away is gunning for you!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Coldfacts — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 14:33:33 GMT

Slew,

I mentioned sometime ago that Uncle Mo's galloping action had to be putting a lot of stress on his shoulders. I was abused for making the a statement. This is one of the reasons I do not have him on my list. Horses that gallop that way are not ideal for repeated long distance races. It may be the reason for his light schedule going into the derby.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

furlongs — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 08:24:55 GMT

Well THAS ran about like I figured short off the layoff. Soldat was solid as he was in the slop at Gulfstream but I don't care for horses that go gate to wire at Gulfstream. I mean it is just so easy to do. Soldat has moved into the top 3 for the Derby but with RAN on his bottom side I have to hope he continues to win so I have another throwout in Derby 137. I am still looking at Dialed In, Brethren as my top 2 so far watching races as most impressive. Both have plenty of Breeding as well to go the Derby distance and have a relaxed running style which is what you want plain and simple. I am still waiting to see what Baffert can do with the head case Jaycito, if he has matured he could be a huge factor and I love his breeding to go the Derby distance. I was looking at his works and Baffert is putting a sl=olid foundation in this horse he has worked 7F 3 times in the last month or so, and I like that comeing into a race off the shelf. I would like to see him win his comeback in style and then just run sneeky good in the SA Derby so you can get a halfway price on him come Derby Day. Although if Mo wins his 2 races by daylight I guess second choice will be good enough for anyone to be happy about unless you are ultra greedy. I have noticed since Mo is not going to Tampa someone on here has been real quiet lately!!?? DRAYNAY where are you?? Jump off yet? No he is just waiting to get that 1-9 on the March 12th and tell everyone how he swept the card at Gulfstream and hit a $100 pick 3 ending with Mo... Just some thoughts again about these 3 year olds as if anyone cares. Good luck at the races everyone!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 06:57:46 GMT

Forbidden Apple

That's a very nice top three checklist you have there which coincidentally is very similar to mine. My top 4 in order is Soldat, Jaycito, Dialed In, and Sway Away.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 06:53:43 GMT

"Duh, Gee Tennessee, Can I drive the limo that picks up Uncle Mo for the Timely Rider." "Chumley- I've got a new plan and due to my superior intellect, this one cannot fail. We're going to have a parade on the way to the Timely Writer and Uncle Mo's going to ride on a float to the race. It will be a float of the Twinpsires and it will be filled with a 100,000 screaming fans all holding winning tickets for Uncle Mo in The Derby. It will be the largest float in history." "Duh, OK Tennessee."

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Paula Higgins — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 23:16:12 GMT

Disappointed in third for To Honor and Serve. Didn't love what I saw. Don't think it's all about the longer layoff. Soldat continues to do well and his trainer's confidence in his works seems to be well placed. The list continues to shake out.

Also wishing Eibar Coa continued improvement. Some good signs there if he is having some movement and sensation in his legs. He may get it all back.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:10:14 GMT

Alex'sBigFan

It's slowly changing, and eventually more drugs will be banned, and more levels reduced, and penalties stiffened. It's going to take one state and one big track to take the lead and the others will have to follow. It's going to happen so why not speed up the process? Everyone knows that drugs take a toll on the body. Thanks for your compliment.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Linda in Texas — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 17:40:44 GMT

There are so many what if's really when it all boils down, so i merely

mention, What if Uncle Mo loses in a race Timely Written for him against 3 or 4 unknown horses? Because who is going to step up and enter their horses against Uncle Mo? That is what i am looking forward to, of course, after some great races today.

But what would a loss do to his fee for the breeding shed then??

Got my afternoon chores finished up early so i won't miss a single race.

Safe trips to all today, horse and jockey and especially to all the underdogs! I love surprise winners.

And special best wishes to Eibar Coa on having some feelings and movement in your legs, sir. Speedy recovery for sure for you and yours.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 16:12:43 GMT

The story of the horse Timely Writer is both inspirational and tragic. He was sired by Staff Writer, an unraced son of Northern Dancer, from an unraced mare of decent breeding; at the Keeneland Fall Yearling Sale, he brought only $13,500. He came out of New England at 2 to win the Hopeful and Champagne and was co-high-weighted with Eclipse Champion Deputy Minister on the Experimental. At 3, he prepared for the Kentucky Derby with wins in the G1 Flamingo and Florida Derby, but missed the big race with an injury. Coming back in the fall, he started by winning a handicap at his Suffolk Downs base (giving 15 lbs to 2nd and 3rd). In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he was well-fancied and had gone up to dispute the lead coming out of the turn when he broke down in his left leg; in falling, he took half of the 8-horse field out of contention. Euthanized on the track. RIP Timely Writer.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Slew — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 14:21:38 GMT

2 years ago when I watched Pioneer of theNile and The Pamplemouse run side by side, I favored POtN because the Pamplemouse pounded the track too hard and I didn't think his knees would hold out to the Derby. They didn't. I think Uncle Mo is amazing, and I would love to see him pull it off...but, he raises his knees high, he pounds the ground harder than other colts, and his stride is not a stride but a leap. He tends to leap from spot to spot rather than glide. To me, that's not stretching out...it's dangerous for the jockey, and it's a form that would be difficult to maintain during a Triple Crown run. I worry about his future. I worry about his present. I love the way Mike Repole has reached out to the fans, and I'm hoping his confidence is rewarded. But I have my doubts, and this "special" race just confirms what I have so far just been suspecting. In the TC run, speed helps, but endurance, stamina and efficiency is what will win the day.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Mos and Cons

Coldfacts — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 13:57:52 GMT

Champion 2YO War Pass had a race specially written for him so it not unusual. Whatever route Uncle Mo takes it’s going to be difficult for him to win the derby. He was led by the maiden Riveting Reason in the BCJ. There are some very fast colts heading into the derby and he will possibly for the first time know he is in a race. Two preps or no prep heading into the derby is no big deal as a Sir Barton & Regret did not have a prep heading into their derbies. Sir Barton went on to win the TC and Regret beat the boys. Sir Barton was not the only horse to break his maiden in the Derby but he is the only TC winner to do so. Is Uncle Mo as good as Regret and Sir Barton? Who knows! Assault had six loosing starts as a 2YO.it appears Regret ws lightly raced as a 2YO.