Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

cuban chef de race — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 04:17:47 GMT

in my opinion j.velasquez did not make to honor and serve run better then he was suppose to but may be he wants to satisfied his mentor desires.just an observation.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

cuban chef de race — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 03:59:20 GMT

i am not a scientific horse player i lose very often but when we are talking derby you better listen to me,a. cross,astrology,coma to the top,gourmet dinner,j.p.gusto,jaycito,machen,mucho macho men,,santiva,stay thirsty,etc for me they has not chance,to win.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

cuban chef de race — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 03:47:52 GMT

for me,stay thirsty is over match,gourmet dinner is a quality dude but can go not farther,soldat is nice but need to see a fast pace going 10 then who can beat him ?do not fallow instructions because is better to be prepare then suffer,the beauty of this race is understand what can happen and not to lose.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

cuban chef de race — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:40:14 GMT

i don't see a problem with uncle mo in the this gulf stream race but in the wood or the derby,i just don't like the mystery about his preparation for a race like the derby.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

cuban chef de race — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:15:29 GMT

soldat's jokey alan garcia don't have much experience in the derby his first mount was in 2009 and that is one of the reason why some jockeys have won the derby 2 or 3 times including borrel,so it is a factor to know the right moves to be effective on derby day.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

cuban chef de race — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 03:56:57 GMT

in my opinion mineshaft has better pedigree than bernardini and with the right mare has a better chance to sire a derby winner then him but i will say this for the second time miss do little and gran dam eliza by mt livermoore is not the right mix to be really effective in a race like the Kentucky derby,i do visualize a problem at the end with this nick.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Slew — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 14:40:37 GMT

Coldfacts...ok...Derby winners Derby winners Super Saver and MTB...uhhh...exactly how many races did they win ...after the Derby? I want to see a great TC winner, not a solo act who barely manages to get around the track post-derby. Can you say...peaked too early?

Exception...Big Brown...purely and simply...he was a champion. The times still didn't matter. He was always going to win his races....his stumbling block just may have been his own jockey....or a dislodged shoe...who knows.

I said it before, and I'll say it again...the times in the PREPS are not as important as the way the horses handled the courses and a more competitive field (something we don't really know because they're all avoiding each other.)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 14:06:39 GMT

I could not agree with you more. I would call him the Mark Cuban of horse racing.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

SLOHORSE — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 23:02:33 GMT

LINDA/TX'ZENYT/JOHN AND FRAN U .R. RiGHT ON... REGARDING MIKE REPOLE HE IS A BREATH OF FRESH AIR FOR RACING. HE IS VERY COMPASSIONATE REGARDING HIS HORSES INCLUDING THE LOWEST CLAIMERS...HE HAS GIVEN VERY GENOUSELY TO THE VARIOUS TB RETIREMENT PROGRAMS AND IS 100% CORRECT THAT THE FANS NEED TO BE MORE APPRECIATED,WITHOUT THEM NO RACES..MIKE IS THE TRUE AMERICAN DREAM.HE MADE IT THE HARD WAY WITH A DREAM AND HARD WORK. I'M PULLING FOR HIM ALL THE WAY

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Wed, 09 Mar 2011 19:36:45 GMT

Mike Repole is loud and annoying. It seems like he wants the spotlight too badly, and not just for his horses but for himself.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Footlick — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 14:44:15 GMT

Buddy- it does bother me that the Derby winners haven't gone on to win after the TC. It probably isn't unheard of, but it is troubling to me. I think our thoroughbred as a whole in the US is bred for 7-9 furlongs. It is a demand on such horses to ask them to run 10 furlongs in early May. When you have to pinpoint stamina influences in their pedigrees that go back 4 generations, it is a stretch to think that the stamina from that horse is going to be enough to call a horse bred for 10 furlongs. I like that there are a more with turf stamina influences, and I feel breeders have realized that there needs to be more stamina introduced into the breed, but it does take time and won't happen overnight. When people analyze a horses pedigree, I always hear mention that his sire could go 10 furlongs so his offspring will too. But it doesn't work that way. You have to see what the sires offspring do on the average, not what the sire did. The classic example is the horse Apalachee. He was a son of Round Table and stoutly bred. But he turned out to be a sprinter in Europe and a Chef-de-Race classification as a brilliant/intermediate rank, meaning he passed on speed to his offspring. So it didn't matter that he was stoutly bred because that is not the trait that he was passing on. Many sprinters in Europe have, through smart breeding, sired horse who have won regularly at 10 furlongs. If you look at a dosage diagram, which I look at usually to see how balanced a horses pedigree is, you find an inordinate amount of horses bred in the US that have no stamina wing points whatsoever. To me that is disturbing, because stamina wing points tends to give a horse stoutness and durability, more so than speed influences. Anyway, thanks for suffering through my long-winded post, but the lack of recognized stamina influences in US breeding is one of my pet peeves, as well as allowing meds on raceday. Sorry to be so long-winded.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Footlick — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 14:25:02 GMT

Coldfacts- I know that your thing is history and statistics, but you can't compare this year's preps to past year's preps. These horses aren't running against past Derby winners. Let's see if some that are running on or near the pace now rate and close when they get a faster pace in their final preps. Then we can talk about whether they will be cooked or not.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Jon — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 13:49:56 GMT

Don't want to ask a dumb question, but do some horses just instinctively know how/when to change leads and others don't and keep jumping back and forth? I didn't know this was something that any horse ever really had to be taught. Could it indicate a physical problem?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Zenyatta John — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 13:27:41 GMT

Please -

There is NO comparison between Mike Repole and IEAH.

Mike Repole is a respected business man who made Billions because of his desire to do so.

Now IEAH are suing each other because their empire is crumbling. They even CLOSED the Equine Hospital they opened ' because it's slow'. How do you open a animal hospital and complain it's slow? It's supposed to be about the horse, not the profit for vet bills.

I don't know Mike Repole , but I do respect him.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Derby Dew — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 11:42:33 GMT

Steve,

Your insights into these TC preps are priceless. As a big Dialed In fan, I'm glad he got that 1 1/8th race under his belt. Zito should have him just right (without squeezing the lemon) for the Florida Derby. Win or lose, he should be well primed for a big effort in the Run for the Roses. If he's 10-1 or more in Derby Pool #2, then I'm all over him.

The Rebel Stakes is shaping up to be one of the more interesting prep races to date. I'm looking to see Elite Alex move forward and also anxious to see what Alternation brings to the table.

The pace on the Road to the Roses is really starting to pick up.

Steve, your writing on the Derby Trail really spices up these preps and gives us Derby junkies a lot to digest. Thank you.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Steve Haskin — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 08:14:35 GMT

Ben, I agree what you said about Graham Motion. When I spoke to him about Toby's Corner after the Whirlaway, looking for some encouraging comments, he seemed less than enthused and a bit surprised he accomplished as much as he had. I certainly think he deserves another chance. I was really taken by him in the paddock. I had loved him watching the replays of his races, but I didnt realize he was such a grand, stately looking colt until I saw him in the flesh. I wish he would have had more of an impact on the finish, and would love to see him rebound.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Footlick — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 05:03:31 GMT

Buddy- Buckpasser had a quarter crack and was sidelined until the day of the Belmont. Dr Fager was not ready for 10 furlongs that early in his career. But Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Damascus, Spectacular Bid, Riva Ridge and many others that I am not mentioning all raced more than 5 times after the Derby. It truly just depends on the horse. As far as being taken away by breeders, Buckpasser started 31 times in his career which spanned 3 years. Dr Fager, Damascus, Riva Ridge, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, Seattle Slew all raced through their 4 yr old year. Breeders didn't whisk them away. They completed their three seasons as many did before they went to stud back then. 31 races by a top horse is almost unheard of now.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Coldfacts — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 03:31:07 GMT

Slew,

“There's too much emphasis on the times in the preps. These are PREPS....not the big dance”

A lot of posters seem very dismissive of times recorded in derby preps. You are amongst this group and as a knowledgeable thoroughbred enthusiast I find this disturbing. The last four derby winners exhibited exceptional speed at some point preceding their respective derbies. Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in the fastest time for the distance of 8.5F. The KJC has been contested at 8.5F 22 times. Mine That Bird was the Canadian champion 2YO based on winning 4 stakes/graded races. He worked a fluent, fast time 10F that Steve commented on in one of his daily reports from CD. Big Brown won an allowance race in 1:35 plus in hand. Street Sense won the Tampa Bay Derby in a NTR. These colts all exhibited exceptional speed that set them apart from the rest. The times in the most recent major preps suggest that the winners have not set themselves apart from the rest. The times are mostly slower or marginally faster than 2010. Of course the CA horses are running much faster even with adjusted time for the speediness of the SA strip. Soldat, MMM, Stay Thirst, Santiva, Astrology and the rest are slow horses by derby standards and thats a cold fact. Uncle Mo, Jaycito and Dialed In are far superior to the rest in the speed department.

All of the derby starters will carry126LBS for the first time and most will be required to run faster over a longer distance than they have in the past. Those who do not have derby speed can stay home. Speed can be produced on the lead and sustained or at the closing stage of the race. Those who are accustom to 24, 49, 1:13 will not suddenly graduate to a derby pace of 22, 46. 1:11 as they will be cooked going that fast. Yes sir, time reflect how fast these colts can run and is a very important means of measuring their respective chances.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Coldfacts — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 03:17:28 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

The Derby trail does not start on the 1st of January. It normally starts during the 2YO season. Uncle Mo emerged as the winter book derby favorite because he won two G1 races impressively as a 2YO.

“Can you tell me how many Grade One races have been run for 3yo on the Derby trail so far?”

None! However, many on Steve’s list had 2YO careers and were not considered good enough to entered in 2YO G1 races. When a colt breaks his maiden in a G1 race he should be given the respect that such a feat deserves. Jaycito and Uncle Mo are the only Gl winners in the dozen that stated as 2YOs.

“How can everyone on the list be a Grade One winner?”

I am struggling to provide an informed answer as I am having difficulties with the relevance of the question. I have revisited my post and cannot find any portion that implies that I expected ever member of the list to have G1 winning status. However, one must acknowledge that two of twelve is low.

“If it's not impossible it's very close”

Again I am not sure what the above is communication. There is a group in Steve’s list that is indeed very close. They are all slow by derby standard and are there because of their graded earnings. They will be closer to the back of the derby field.

“And where's your list?”

You evidently missed my posting with my top eight and those on watch. Itcan be found in the previous Derby Dozen.

“ Don't Stay Thirsty, have a drink”

I always relish a drink or two but I cannot consume what Stay thirsty has to offer as I respect my liver. In all seriousness, Stay Thirsty is not fast enough to win the derby and his two 8.5F races clearly support my conclusion. If he can barely beat one colt that is tired and back pedaling and another that has bolted, how can you want me to take a drink of what he has to offer? If you really want to have a good drink, take some of what Riveting Reason has to offer. He has more foundation and speed and at this point is the colt most likely to win the derby. He a falls into the triple positive category on the derby chart.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Linda in Texas — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 02:37:23 GMT

ben walden,jr.- what a nice post you wrote about Toby's Corner. I like this horse, his name makes me want to know him and his record of winning 3 or 4 lifetime and 3 in a row going into the Gotham is not too shabby.

And i also like the strapping big ones. Let's hope someone else realizes his potential and i will not give up on him. He obviously has your respect and i will join you.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Trebloc — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:43:51 GMT

Mr. Walden,

Get Lucky 2010 broodmare of the year?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Linda in Texas — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:39:01 GMT

Buddy, if you truly love the sport of Thoroughbred Horse Racing, and would really like a taste of it. I mean a really gooooooood taste of it.

How bout some of the greedy breeders and owners sending you some of their feed bills, shoeing bills, tack bills, vet bills, tax bills, groomer and manager bills, walker bills, stall bills, jockey fees,Transport Bills, entry fees, and last but not least, Trainers. And

not to forget what these great big beautiful dumplings cost at the sales!

We are lucky there are people, owners, not greedy breeders all,who spend their money so we the public can share in anything they get in return for their expenditures.

I say a Huge Thank You to All Owners.

Times have been a bit tough Buddy,

if some breeders need to cover the costs of their upkeep, then they do what they have to do. That opens the doors for new horses to come in and take their places.

I don't mean to sound like Miss Goody Two Shoes, but i owned horses, plain simple pleasure horses, 5 of them all at the same time for many years back in the 50's and 60's. Times have changed and so has the cost of upkeep of all horses.Especially high strung Thoroughbreds.

I hope you find something good in the sport of horse racing otherwise i would suggest another sport to bet on. And i am being very sincere.

Thanks txhorsefan,you would have said the same thing.I always enjoy your posts.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Buddy — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:38:03 GMT

Kelso was a gelding and I missed that. He was a great race horse and we don't have them anymore on account of the greedy breeders. Also the Derby Winner hasn't won a race in almost three years can you tell me why that's good.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

ben walden, jr. — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 00:53:51 GMT

i wouldn't trade toby's corner for the winner of the gotham. toby's corner ran faster in the whirlaway than he did in the gotham. people are so quick to give up on the strapping big 3 yo by bellamy road including graham motion who appears to be opting for leaving ny for chicago's illinois derby...a real vote of confidence! toby's corner was strangled headlong into a turtle's pace the first half mile in the gotham and was very wide both turns, and in fact figured to "bounce" a little bit coming out his fast race. toby's corner is suited perfectly for the 1 1/8th wood memorial which was won by his sire. the colt was running at the end of the gotham as well. lastly, it is a shame that this colt has done most everything right in his short career...won 3 of 4 lifetime and 3 in a row going in to gotham...and isn't entitled to being saddled by his trainer. i believe toby's corner will win a grade 1 race going two turns if given the chance...perhaps the only way he will gain public and stable respect.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Thirst Quencher

Slew — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 00:28:08 GMT

Buddy...Kelso was a gelding...won HOY 5 years straight. What more do you want out of a horse? I don't think he was taken away by ANY breeders, especially a "greedy" breeder.