Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Bill Daly — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 17:56:57 GMT

Steve, you make a good point about the Derby being more difficult to win than it used to be. Your reasons are sound as well. Moreover, starting on the turn with the two gates really compromises the chances of the horses breaking from the extreme inside posts. Mskes one wonder how many of the Derby winners of yesteryear would have won their races had they encountered the obstacles horses like Looking at Lucky faced?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Cathy — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 16:46:44 GMT

Re the Dubai bounce, everybody knows (except trainers and owners) that after sending a horse to Dubai they are never the same when they come back here. That explains why we aren't sending as many over there anymore. As for the Derby, put your money on Soldat, and forget Uncle Mo, as it will be his first really hard race.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Deltalady — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 16:01:40 GMT

I'm waiting for the day when I feel like I've learned enough to argue with Steve! On the other hand, most of your followers have provided some interesting perspectives as well. This is my first time to follow the Derby Trail all the way from January, and other than Mo, the list has certainly been shuffled and re-shuffled over the past 3 months. Without exception, I've picked the wrong horse in every race so far! Luckily, I have several favorites, so I will be happy with whatever the outcome is and for everyone to come home safely. Cheers all!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Betsy — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:23:20 GMT

Mott hardly sounds like he's brimming with confidence about THAS. He hopes the horse will improve and he hopes he shows more gameness in his last; he as much as admitted (even right after the FOY) that THAS folded pretty quickly. No matter what he said after the FOY, it's apparent now (it was apparent to me then) that Mott was not happy at all. I don't think he has any idea what he's going to get from this colt on Sunday.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Jen — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:00:15 GMT

Uh....If Elite Alex goes for the Belmont Stakes in June and not the $1 million Queen's Plate at Woodbine, that would be diabolical!!!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Zenyatta John — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 11:23:41 GMT

Richard -

The Dubai Bounce is a real deal. Shipping back quickly is deadly - they have learned to leave the horses for another week in Dubai to avoid the Dubai Bounce.

Now that's a Coldfact!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Bill Daly — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 01:52:42 GMT

Right now, Bind looks like a need the lead sprinter. Napravnik had a hammer lock on him and spent a lot of effort trying to get him to rate. He'll be a very nice horse if he learns to relax. Big maybe..

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Point Given — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 23:23:16 GMT

Zenyatta John,

Elite Alex is at best an average horse. Amen to That.Go "Factorsoldjaycito".

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

sherpa — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 23:14:15 GMT

Decisive Moment ran very well in the Spiral considering it was his first race on synthetic. It will be interesting to see if he takes to CD. I like that he has almost 6 wks to train there.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Willcox Ted — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 23:07:24 GMT

Steve,

Appreciate your mention of my super sleeper Derby horse, Willcox Inn. I've haven't seen him on the worktab since March 7th. Do you know if he is still in training for Michael Stidham?

I'm looking forward to him having his break-out race in the Blue Grass.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

The Rock — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 23:03:58 GMT

Zenyatta John,

Thanks for the info. Just saw Bind's race. Very rank all the way around the track. Still really like this horse despite the defeat. 1/5 off the track record. And despite being very rank, the horse pulled away from the rest of his competition but one. This horse will relax better with the race under his belt. I really wish Rosie would've let him roll and maybe he would've settled. But oh well. Can't blame her for trying to get him to rate either. It was a good experience for both. Now its off to Keenland for a nx1 other than or the Lexington. Interested to see what Al Stall does next.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Matthew W — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 22:33:29 GMT

Steve in the 1980 Strub, my briother Pete and I walked up the entry way to the saddling barn so we could see Spectacular Bid and Flying Paster up close....there were two others who were real lookers, Relaunch and Valdez--but I was drawn to the two horses that took me for a ride that previous Spring,or Derby Trail--two horses with such superb race records, that despite having General Assembly and Golden Act in the field, BOTH Bid and Paster went off under 2-1---then they ran the race.....point is, here's to ya, old chap, for correctly recognizing the contenders and for understanding that, usually, it's the Derby Trail that trumps all in this Sport Of Kings--that 1979 Derby Trail has stayed with me moreso than most of the winners of the race....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

John McEvoy — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 22:20:06 GMT

Love all these enthusiastic comments. Elite Alex? I don't think so, even though Calvin, who I like, has never ridden him right.

The Derby will be another 20-horse crapshoot, with nothing horses banging into good ones. The Factor may run their legs off before Mo comes coming. Post position will be huge. Anyway, it is much fun to speculate and read the impassioned responses from your large following, Steve. Rgds, JMc

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 22:12:39 GMT

Zenyatta John,

I'm solid on Soldat, Mo, Factor, and maybe Dialed In and Prepeg. I've posted this ALWAYS. I tossed Elite Alex from sixth a month ago. I don't see the mental interest there in him either, I agree, but Steve and Fran have kept my heart with him so I have him around #8 now, and I said a reluctant #8 in Steve's other blog. I don't get these wide runs Calvin is doing with him. Love the trainer and the sire so I'll give Elite Alex just a glimmer of a chance. Where is Jeremy Rose and why can't he ride Elite Alex? He rode Afleet Alex and if anyone could figure out Elite maybe he could. Does anyone know if Jeremy rides for Tim Ritchey anymore?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Thetruthisoutthere — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 21:00:41 GMT

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Pants on Fire from Derby contender consideration just yet. Would the owners have agreed to sell that other horse (the name already escapes me) if they didn't like the two left in the barn?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Freetex — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 20:54:21 GMT

For the naysayers, take off one of your shoes and run full out for about a mile and see how you hold up... MMM is grit, heart, and talent in my view.

Astrology's performance was unexpectedly amazing.

I'm not giving up on Elite Alex either. I hope he makes it to the Derby.

Nehro's tenacity was impressive.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

txhorsefan — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 20:28:11 GMT

Family commitments eliminated any possibility of watching these races last weekend, so I do appreciate your breaking them down and analyzing what went on in each race. The replays on the computer screen are just not the same as watching on tv for me, plus I just like the way you are able to pick up important nuances of a horse's behavior in the race that might go unseen by my untrained eyes. In other words, thank you - now I'm going to go back and re-read your article and study a little bit more.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Supahorsenut — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 18:03:10 GMT

After last years Derby there was talk about not running so many horses. Are they still giving this any concideration?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

sally — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 17:49:22 GMT

Loved the article, Steve. I am on the Zayat-Jaycito bandwagon and I hope the Victory Gallop baby has a great shot at Mo this weekend and in the KD! I also think Elite Alex is to play no big part on May 7th.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Zenyatta John — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 17:36:36 GMT

Rock -

The BloodHorse has all replays available broken up between maidens, Allowance, and Stake races. You'll find Bind's race there with ease.

To Fran and Alex's Big Fan -

You just have to face the facts- Elite Alex is a slow average colt and no amount of 'wishing' or saying 'the horse knows he good enough' is going to make him any better. He might be a $25,000 claimer by September.

He's a a horse that just doesn't want to win. There are everyday examples of horses who are morning glories, but never transfer that ability in the afternoon.

Elite Alex might be lucky to win a G3 somewhere - but has absolutely no chance to win the Derby. Too slow, and disinterested. Maybe if they gelded him- he'd be more focused on racing.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

bellesforever — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 17:02:55 GMT

Nice write up and I so agree with you although I still like POF just because he is such a fighter..Alite Alex is still holding on to my heart as is MMM ..Astrology had a good come back race too..It may not be the winners who will be in play but I know POF will be on my ticket somewhere the others not so much.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 16:33:49 GMT

Where did you find those Derby fields of maidens and claimers, Steve. I remember 'the olden days' and because the horses raced so often, the field rarely had more than two or three no-hopers of that sort.

For example, in the 1970 17-horse field (not a particularly vintage year), there were only 3 horses who were not SWs BEFORE the Derby, with one of those stakes-placed.

The year before, only 4 horses showed up to oppose the Big 4 of Majestic Prince, Arts and Letters, Dike, and Top Knight. Two were major-track SWs (Arkansas Derby and Del Mar Futurity winners), one was a minor track SW, and one had no stakes credentials.

How about the Centennial Derby, when 23 horses lined up? Eighteen of them (18!) were SW or SP in Derby preps in the Jan-May period. Of the remainder, three were imports - Sir Tristram from England (yes, the umpteen times leading stallion in New Zealand), Set n' Go from Venezuela (Canonero dreams?), and Lexico from Panama. Leaving two US starters with less than sterling records: both became SWs as older horses.

Don't have time to do any others right now, but I believe you overstate the 'weakness' of Derby fields past.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

Point Given — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 16:04:38 GMT

Elite Alex a champion? I doubt if he gets closer to being one or even smell like one.Second coming of Dublin. The most hyped and a bag full of sorry excuses.He is who I think he is, a slow horse.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

tcc — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 16:01:17 GMT

Steve or anyone else on here,

Can anyone find a video of Bind's race on Saturday? I was unable to watch and want to see how the race unfolded for him.

Thanks

The Rock 29 Mar 2011 9:02 AM Go to

www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/video,you can find race replays on this page. 3-26, race #4.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Making the Most of Defeat

BillRink — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 15:44:16 GMT

Steve, Thanks for another great summary of this weekends races. I really enjoyed watching Dominus at SA, he's a nice mover and looked in total control with the win, I will be anxious to see where he goes next. Another race that was really intriguing was that AOC at 1m&70yds. over at the Fair Grounds. I thought Prime Cut got a great trip, looked good, and ran terrific down the stretch to get the win, (he kind of reminds me of Court Vision). However, I can't help but wonder what may have happened if Bind had been allowed to use his speed,(perhaps a new track record). It looked like Napravik really took a firm hold on him early on and he never settled into rhythm. This seems a little odd because usually Rosie can settle a horse with the best of them. Maybe the strategy was to try to teach him to rate just off the pace, or perhaps he was just to rank. Anyway, it looked like he really wanted to run Saturday and judging from his previous races I'm thinking, on a good day on a fast track, this colt should get a mile in 1:35 and change with no problem. Let's just hope this doesn't frustrate or drop his conidenence the next time he faces a similar situtation. Those last cracks of the whip didn't appear to help, and during the last 100yds. he looked a little tired from the struggle and may have given in. Who knows.., but it was an interesting race, and above all I hope he came out of it ok. How is Albergatti doing, and also have you heard how the filly Position Limit is coming along? Thanks Bill