Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

jayjay — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 07:33:09 GMT

I personally think that any horse that wins a graded prep race deserves to be in the Derby regardless of how they won the race. If they were good enough to beat who we thought were top contenders then they should be good enough for the derby. One thing I wish for a change when qualifying a horse for the derby is that they include what level of graded race they won from. There are races which are grade 2 or 3 that has a big purse (i.e. Sunland Derby). We all want to see the best of the best to get in the Derby. Basing it on graded earnings alone has too many holes. Also, I don't understand the prep races 1 week before the derby. For the sake of horses and to prevent greedy owners, can we have the last prep races run 3 weeks away from the Derby ? One can get lucky running back a week but then that's it. You can't ask the horse to run in the Preakness or the Belmont as it would gut the horse.

I know there's some of you that would say it's business, and it shows the type of person you are. Horse racing should be about the jockey and horse's safety first, the business part comes after that.

I understand we need more investors to buy and race horses to keep the industry going but what good are they if all they do is gut a horse just to make a quick buck.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

jayjay — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:36:40 GMT

I think they need to get rid of counting the earnings from the 2 yr old season. Most of these horses don't run well in their 2 yr old season and get better the following year. I still think the graded earnings should be the qualifier and anyone that wins a graded prep race whether it'd be a fluke win or not deserves to be in the Derby.

Is there a way they can move the gates a little further out ??? That one hole path is headed to a shrub and the 1 horse always have to either pull back or gun it and push his way to get the rail...very dangerous post I think.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Johnny — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:06:14 GMT

Happy Birthday Steve, I really enjoy reading your articles. I emailed Churchill several years ago and asked why they would not reduce the field in the derby to 12-15 and make it a much better race, they basically said with a 20 horse field it was giving more horses/owners/trainers a chance of a lifetime. The only thing I ever see changing it, and I hope it doesn't happen, is a major accident involving numerous horses that have to be put down and serious jockey injuries on national tv. Anyway, I'm kinda liking the Factor, Mucho, pants on fire, dialed in. and, watching nehro, astrology, shackleford.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Paula Higggins — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 18:23:06 GMT

ITA that a 20 horse field is too many. As for the ones remaining,I like Uncle Mo the best. A really good horse who may be a great horse. Then The Factor, Mucho Macho Man and Dialed In. Because of the cache (accent over the e) of the Derby, we will always see large fields. That is, unless the people who run it limit the field. I think they should decrease the field to 15 at least. But I don't think we should be horse snobs about this either. Sometimes a sleeper wakes up and does something magical, even if for only one race i.e. MTB.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Matthew W — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 19:44:12 GMT

Deacon I won a ton of $$ on Sunday Silence! In the BC Classic, Easy had prepped at 1 1/2, and caught a gruelling battle with the older Cryptoclearence that day--my thinking is it cost him the Classic, it took away his edge, and he lost the race by a diminishing 1/2 length/neck to Sunday Silence--it cost him a much higher placing on the all-time lists--at 1 1/4 Easy Goer, despite going 0 for 2 vs Sunday Silence, was the better horse....(my opinion).....at any rate I hit big on Sunday in the Classic/as well as the derby....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

GoldenBroom — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:44:36 GMT

Open up a spot thanks to Premier Peg's injury. Another reason why run Stay Thirsty...what if something like this happened to Mo in a workout? I still think this is why the conservative approach for Mo (that and his dominance though just a few races). I still think the field should be cut to 14 but to have a healthy horse and qualify and NOT go...that would probably be too hard for me to resist as well...I had a hard enough time giving up chocolate for Lent...

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Deacon — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 06:39:32 GMT

Matthew W: Like you said your opinion. My opinion, Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer 3 of 4, lost to him in the Belmont, but beat him in the BC Classic. Proofs in the pudding. To each his own I suppose.

Sad news about Premier Pegasus, this could even be worse then 4 or 5 months. Hairline fractures can escalate. This is usually about the time of year when our top 3 year olds start getting hurt and some unknown goes on and wins the Derby. Eskendereya last year, The Pamplemousse and I Want Revenge in 2009 to name a few. Very, very unfortunate.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Bob Fritz — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:46:58 GMT

Not only were Mine That Bird's graded earnings won on a synthetic track, but he earned them at two. Surely, if the standards were tightened in 2009 he would have been one of the horses left out. Sometimes a case of Derby Fever pays off.

I don't have a problem with 20 horses. It gives the Derby that whole "chance of a lifetime" aura, but limits the field to a size where it's not dangerous.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

GunBow — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:34:27 GMT

PrePeg was the one horse in the SA Derby I really thought could compete with a horse like Uncle Mo. To be sure, PrePeg had alot still to prove, but the talent, speed, acceleration, ratability, versatility, physique, and breeding were all there. Unfortunately, durablity wasn't.

Without PrePeg, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a moderate and unspectacular winner. The only horse I see that might be able to really step up and run a huge race is Silver Medallion. But, it's possible Silver Medallion won't like the dirt and/or the dirt in his face, and he runs up the track.

Anthony's Cross and Jaycito are solid horses, but they just don't appear to have elite talent.

Comma to the Top has an excellent chance, but the presence of Midnight Interlude makes his task much more difficult. I can easily see Comma leading to the 16th pole, but then being caught near the wire.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Sunny Farm — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 00:05:40 GMT

RichieD ; Hello ~

You have implied that MINE THAT BIRD merely had "Racing luck" ?

That colt came from far back & he swept by everyone,racing up the rail & squeaking through as only Borel would do. THAT is CLASS, not JUST "Racing Luck".

MINE THAT BIRD does deserve to go down in racing history.That was one of the most exciting races I have ever seen & that little horse showed a lot of heart.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

bornahorseman — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 22:21:56 GMT

dont count elite alex out this colt just needs to put together one race he is the diamond in the rough and with blinkers now we may see a new star to add to the mix

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Geronimo2123 — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 22:07:52 GMT

Well, it was a nice little ride for Premier Pegasus but the AP and DRF.com are reporting he has a hairline fracture and is out of the SA Derby and out of the Ky. Derby...

Who is going to step up now?

And are those rumors about Uncle Mo NEEDING to time off and easy Derby prep schedule due to soundness issues true? There are a couple of posters on other blogs who claim they work at PM and UM had issues this winter.

Probably just rumors, but if it WERE true we would never here about it either. If the horse is healthy, he does appear to tower over this field.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Matthew W — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 22:03:08 GMT

Steve, unbelievable blow to Mr Cho, who has six horses in his stable, made up mostly of homebreds...unbelievable highs and lows of this game....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Matthew W — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 21:41:05 GMT

Well I heard about PrePeg...talk about a stunner, that horse was looking so fine....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Matthew W — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 19:25:10 GMT

easy goer--yes Mine That Bird was 13th on graded earnings list--but those earnings were from Canadian races over synthetics--I have heard talk of tweaking the "get it" qualification method, and on future First Saturdays a horse like Mine That Bird my not draw in....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

allthewayfancy — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 18:00:46 GMT

Here is a radical idea. What if the field was reduced to 14 and only graded earnings earned in the horse's 3 year old year counted towards the Kentucky Derby? You would then get the horses who were coming up to the race the best and there would be more emphasis on a horse's 3 year old campaign. Horse's like Uncle Mo wouldn't be able to just have 2 preps before the Derby if they wanted to be insured a spot in the starting gate.....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

RichieD — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 17:18:06 GMT

This is why the Kentucky Derby is losing much of its luster. 20 horses in the gate is far too many, more often than not the best horse does not win due to "racing luck". Does anybody really believe that Super Saver or Mine That Bird will go down as great Derby winners? Too many of these super wealthy owners just want to be part of the party that is the Kentuck Derby. Why run Stay Thirsty? Repole already has Uncle Mo in the race and based on ST's last race he is destined to be an also ran. Uncle Mo looks to tower over this years field, let's hope he doesn't have some bad racing luck and lose due to some owner wanting to have his horse in the race just to say he had a sarter in the Derby!!! Dialed In could have a big say in the race but he may have to come 13 wide into the stretch.....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

WinngColrz — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 17:01:42 GMT

And we still have Santa Anita and Wood Memorial to consider....one thing we DO know over the years, you can't count anybody out! Although from a gambler's viewpoint we can probably knock a few horse off the betting list, I can't imagine being an owner of a horse who HAS proved enough somewhere this spring to be eligible, and then not run if he's 100% healthy. Dang straight, I would go if my horse had earned enough bucks to finance the trip and afford me a memorable once-in-a-lifetime experience, even if deep down I knew he really didn't have a shot. Oh you betcha I would.

Lisa

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Giddyup — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 16:48:26 GMT

Good observations Steve. Back in the day the Kentucky Derby was the defining race in the career of a thoroughbred, trainer and owner but now it seems to be just a piece of an overall business plan augmented by several other lucrative stakes.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Nick Kling — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 16:05:39 GMT

Steve,

Three years ago I did a survey of every Kentucky Derby starter from the previous 4 years. It revealed a staggering number never recovered good form after the race.

Here is an excerpt, "(From 2004-2007), 78 horses started in the Kentucky Derby. A staggering total of 14 came out of the race either never racing again, or starting just a handful of times, unable to regain anything resembling decent form. That is 18 percent of ALL horses who started in the (Derby)."

I haven't updated it, but doubt little has changed. I wonder if these pie-in-the-sky owners and trainers would continue to enter the hapless if they realized the carnage?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

jon — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 14:18:18 GMT

I'd like to see R Heat Lightning run in the Derby, since she would be a real threat against Mo, who needs some sort of competition in that race.

I really don't understand why there is such urgency to fill 20 spots for the Derby with colts who don't really belong in the race and who pose a risk to more qualified entrants. There is no logic in sending these colts the owners and trainers know won't win the race, and from an economic perspective, is a stupid investment.

I am frustrated at this stage because I have to wait until June for what is already destined-Mo's Triple Crown. I really hope that the colts who chase him end up retired since the sheer bravado of the trainers needs to be tempered a bit. Sham's connections sent him after Secretariat in the Belmont and he never raced again. Golden Broom and John P. Grier were both broken racing with Man o' War.

Premier Pegasus is a hack who tired while beating a bunch of speed horses in the San Felipe. The illusion of crusing home would be accomplished by stopping one's car and letting the car ahead keep going. The Factor has speed, but so what? Mo is destined to win and no one has yet to challenge him. I think the other colts chasing him will be sorely beaten, some will retire, or will never race again.

So, we know that Mo will win the Triple Crown. Who will be second and third among these claimers? Any thoughts? Mo has the ability to rate, run each quarter faster than the one preceding, and accelerates in a way that these colts can't match.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Bigtex — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 13:09:46 GMT

It'd sure be nice to see the favored win the Derby and run the table for the Triple Crown but it certainly makes for an exciting season if the unexpected comes to Louisville peaking and turns out to be the Superhorse "all along".

Steve, I just reread "Rachel and the Woodward". It brought tears to my eyes, true brilliance!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Jon — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 13:02:47 GMT

Sometimes a horse who wins the KD doesn't fully get the credit it deserves (Superhorse) at the time; that doesn't come until a bit later. Seattle Slew WAS a superhorse all the time, of course, but it was said...yes, well, but he hasn't been tested enough(--never mind how he was tested in the Derby after a disastrous start and then had to push his way through a wall of horses to gain a position and run very fast fractions with For The Moment, and then again in the Preakness by the very speedy and classy Cormorant--)and was just beating a rather mediocre group/crop that year. HE WAS MAKING THEM LOOK MEDIOCRE BECAUSE HE WAS THAT GOOD; was from the very start of his career. Nobody was going to touch him. Thank God he had a four-year old season that enabled him to crush Affirmed and finally put all that crap to rest once and for all. Uncle Mo may or may not be a great horse, but the "not being tested" part doesn't really hold water. If he's that good he will make the competition look mediocre the way Slew did.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

Matthew W — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 08:42:50 GMT

"....and you know somethings happening but ya don't know what it is--do you, Mr--CHO!!??"...Mr Cho about to know what it's like to be D Wayne Lukas/Bob Baffert/Nick Zito--all rolled into one!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Tickets Going Fast

easygoer132.2 — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 04:56:56 GMT

Mathew W

Mine That Bird ranked 13th in earnings going into the derby as per Dan Illman at drf.com (see his current blog)

Also, Super Saver was 11th in earnings.

Neither ever won another race!

They both had the benefit of great rides by Calvin Borel. I also think they benefited from wet tracks.

---

The current system needs to be modified. Perhaps earnings from a grade 1 should count more than a grade 2 and even more than a grade 3. What's the point of grading races if it doesn't make a difference?

And of course the standard established by Breeders' Cup of 14 entrants should be followed.

Maybe then a future 3 yo champion like Lookin at Lucky wouldn't get wiped out just after the start.

Suppose Uncle Mo or The Factor [assuming they run well in their final preps and are favored] get stuck with the 1 and 20 post. It could ruin their chances too and that would be a shame.