Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

J. S. P. — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 15:42:36 GMT

To roan roy: The last winner of the Blue Grass who went on to win the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold back in 1991. FWIW, I don't believe the Wood, SA Derby and Blue Grass should lose their Grade 1 status...

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

cuban chef de race — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 04:04:23 GMT

key who will be on the lead at the last turn? the factor is the only horse that has the ability to do that,now the 4 northern dancer descendants that won the derby had other things to say,ferdinand who i miss so much{more then his money minded owners} finish third in the fastest derby prep to snow chef who did not have the breeding to win and was by stamina sire nijinsky,sea hero ran 4th in the stingiest prep the blue grass and had a stamina oriented pedigree,this two horses were dual qualifiers,charismatic set a stake record winning the lexinton and his sire finish 2d to unbridle in the derby that was a fast derby and big brown won the florida derby like a monster,the factor is very fast but no to wire this derby with his over all breeding and mediocre last prep,so i hope he can ran better then arkansas but first or second is not going to be easy,rise a native is not here for me ,nasrullah time? this line has a lot of questions to unswer in this derby,dialed in in his 2d dam sire,nehro in his seasoning has done too much in a short time,pants on fire has la troienne top and bottom and six weeks lay off and uncle mo was great at two but his sire was at three and lost,i can tell you more but i do not have to see any more prep.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

cuban chef de race — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 01:53:34 GMT

this derby look like a puzzle for the professionals,so how the amateurs can solve this? AAA has no rest since last year,nehro the same,uncle mo one two turn race only big brown did it in 31 years,pants on fire 6 weeks lay off the last winner in 1956!!,soldat 5th in last race only swelle did it in 1984 and the track was sloppy,dialed in beat a horse that wasted more energy then him 13/4/5 final eight? will he close faster having M.T.livermoore as his second dam sire? brilliant speed will be name no speed at all,master of hounds has the money to travel he wants to see churchill downs as a tourist,the rest no comment.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

cuban chef de race — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 01:24:54 GMT

Borrel won the derby last year and now is working horses for Pletcher? has ever a derby winning jockey finish last the fallowing year? get off from stay thirsty calvin.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Phil McSween — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 06:16:03 GMT

El Kabong...thanks for the support. We can look for a loan together if the son of Mineshaft comes up empty:)

For the record Ky. Vet...i am not predicting Nehro will win...all i'm saying is...I LOVE HIS HEART. And he could as i mentioned run into pace, traffic and superior competitors.

I've had a few Derby winners myself...War Emblem, Smarty Jones, and Street Sense.

The big thing with Nehro is...who will ride him? If Asmussen puts Borel on him...KITTY BAR THE DOOR.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

KY VET — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 23:54:58 GMT

El kabong....I knew the hot horse was gonna be Nehro....people at the derby will love him....someone listed him 20-1? they missed that one huh? more like 10-1...People wonder why horses that look great on paper, run bad......the reason i make a living at this game....is, i can read the future, by looking at the past....these are the decisions we must make. I can lose every derby for the rest of my life and still be way ahead in kentucky derbys....4 out of last 5...hard hit....i'm thinking i might lose this one....this game isn't this easy.....and if nehro improves again, hey may win.......we will see who is right.....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

El Kabong — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 20:56:06 GMT

Phil M, KY Vet

With all do respect I'm with Phil on this one. I like your (ky vet) theory of a horse running their race too soon and several horse have done that and even been made favorites-Bellamy Road- and your examples of Sidney's Candy & Stately Victor as you mentioned. I just don't feel that Nehro's efforts resemble the type of performance that would squeeze a horse. Quite the opposite on Nehro, I think those last two will serve him well, just as Super Saver's tough gutting 2 preps gave him the right foundation. Phil, we'll either being donating to a good cause-KY VETS- or filling our pockets. I'm ok with both.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

KY VET — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 20:43:55 GMT

Slew! He was always a great horse! those races did'nt knock him out, because he was always great! unbeaten....nehro was lousy...now he ran the best races by far in his life....i'll put you down for likeing nehro.....i say the lemon is squeezed....you must understand what i'm saying don't you? good races take something out of you! watch and learn!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

PomDeTerre — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:59:10 GMT

As a non-professional handicapper, I can rest assured that I have lost far less money than Ky Vet, particularly as I simply cannot subscribe to his vapid handicapping theories. EVERY winning horse is subject to the bounce, and EVERY losing horse is a candidate to fire big the next start. So in theory, one should wager on every horse in a race who hasn't won his last out, and cross yer fingers that he'll fire. One of em has to win by default. No thank you. I will stick to my mundane methods of past performances, recent works, distance & surface, pedigree, jock & trainer, and the almighty weather.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Slew — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:51:27 GMT

KY Vet....Slew was no better than usual in his preps? Are you not aware of his record?

"Billy Turner, "Slew's" trainer, waited to start Seattle Slew as a three-year-old until March 9, 1977 when he set a seven-furlong track record at Hialeah Park Race Track in winning an allowance race by nine lengths. On March 26, Seattle Slew won the Flamingo Stakes by four lengths in the third-fastest time in the stakes' 51-year history. On April 23, he completed his Kentucky Derby preparation with a 3¼-length victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes."

PLEASE get your facts straight before you post anything so ridiculous.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Penny Not Tweedy — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 08:02:22 GMT

I met Jon Court when he was an 18 kid from FL, riding at Centennial Race Track in CO. He was sleeping in his leaky van, had a wife & baby (Justin), but he worked hard, loved to ride, and always had that big smile. I'm so proud of his career, and beyond thrilled that I'll be making my first trip to the Derby this year - Jon, the Fires', Arch3 & his connections would all be very deserving of this win! Best of Luck!!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Phil McSween — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 05:09:03 GMT

Ky. Vet....i do understand what you are saying: The Bounce Theory. A horse will regress after one or a series of hard efforts. And i will concede, Nehro is a bounce candidate. He could also encounter severe traffic trouble like many promising horses do in a bulky field in the Run for the Roses.

I looked up Nehro's dam, who is named The Administrator. This Afleet mare is a former stakes winner, that has foaled 7 horses. Aside from Nehro, two of them have done well at the races. St Marden won the G3 Discovery Handicap (9f) and Sweet Lips took the Sunshine Millions Distaff, so NEHRO's breeding IS THERE.

I just really like this guy, and i find that when you really like a horse, THAT is the best time to make a wager. We shall see my friend. Peace !

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

KY VET — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 02:54:52 GMT

Phil! how ya doin? Maybe you don't understand what i'm talking about. slew was great 2yrold. so were other 2...they were coming off good races, yes...but nothing way better than usual...nehro started off not very good...he has improved a ton....good races take a toll.......you'll see...

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Phil McSween — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:50:13 GMT

These names ring a bell?

Seattle Slew

Smarty Jones

Barbaro

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Soldier Course — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 23:54:22 GMT

Linda in Texas:

Thanks for adding the details about the horrific van fire in NC. When I read the article I had the impression that the fire got out of control so fast that there was little that the driver could have done. And thanks too for not mincing words about the jerk with the cigarette. Hope the authorities find out who did this. "Deliberate" is just too much anguish for my sad soul to fathom.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

KY VET — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 22:11:18 GMT

Who won the derby off 3 big improving races?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Phil McSween — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 19:40:45 GMT

Ky. Vet..respectfully...i hope you're dead wrong. Nehro has run 3 good races in a row and you seem to believe he is spent. I don't buy it. Lots of horses can run more than 3 good races in a row and I hope Nehro is one of them. He's a gutsy, talented horse well worth a win play in the Ky. Derby.

My worry with him is...who will ride him? Micheal Baze rode him in his explosive maiden win and in his brave runner up effort in the La. Derby. But most recently, Corey Nakatani was up for his freight train-line finish in the Ark. Dy. Will either be aboard the son of Mineshaft on May 7? Or will the connections enlist the magic of Calvin Borel or some other hot shot? Regardless, as Steve say...HE IS LIVE !!! Ignore him at your peril.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

mararacing — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 17:07:28 GMT

I have been watching the Ark horses since Feb and think that the horses coming out of there have a very good shot in the Derby this year and look a lot better than those coming out of FL and CA. Was shocked AAA went off at 25-1 odds as the horse had done little wrong. Certainly would be no surprise to me if this horse wins KD - good preps, pedigree, connections, all the makings. I dont think Nehro will win the Derby but think he will finish in 2-4 position, depending on whos in the irons. I'm still keeping The Factor as one of my top pics for now and will watch carefully what happens once/if he reaches CD. I like his pedigree and he gets a lot of soundness from his dam side and least anyone has forgotten, Bold Forbes was a front running KD winner, won Bel and was 3rd in the Preak. Additionally was the sire of Tiffany Lass-Oaks winner. Kinda glad race was so horrible for Factor as think he'll be seriously overlooked and not on top Steves Derby Dozen. I dont see Baffert bringing 3, Jaycito, Midnight and Factor, so expect that who ever is training well will play into my decision and who rides who. Bafferts a smart cookie and in it to win it. Still like MMM as well. Dont think Mo will be in the KD but if he is, wont be one I'll pic. Just not feeling the Indian Charlie. I agree with an earlier poster, the Ark race call was terrible. Too bad Jones has Joyful Victory cause think she is derby caliber filly. Dont know what to think of Santiva now. Love Dynaformers, which gave me Barbaro but difference is Barbaro won and raced well on the Dirt prior to his KD at 3. Brilliant Speed has a Derby pedigree, love the Passing Mood-Buckpasser on the bottom end but until I see him at CD and his works, jury is out. Will be interesting to see what happens next 2+ weeks. Always enjoy the posting Steve!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

KY VET — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 15:30:38 GMT

Why was the lemon squeezed? why will nehro go off form? because he improved too much!! he fired! super saver was always good but not great. his to preps, he was just there at the finish. good but not too good. nehro ran by far the race of his life, and then even better.he fired!! people...don't lose your money on this horse...the ship has sailed.!! On the other side of the coin, is a horse like uncle mo...he ran a 108 beyer 5 months ago...he ran 2 races that took nothing out of him...no stress...now,since he has a 108 to come back to...those races will make him really fire!! why these people can't see this is unreal..........it's how a horse is coming up to a race...thats the thing...infection/no infection...what did those races do? prep him to fire big!!!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

roan roy — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 13:09:58 GMT

To Stephanie and everyone else ragging on the Bluegrass Stakes and whether it's still a viable prep for the KY Derby:

In the last five years, the Wood has given us 2 fourth-place finishers in the KY Derby. The Santa Anita Derby has given us a second and a fourth. THE BLUEGRASS HAS GIVEN US A FIRST, A SECOND, A THIRD, AND A FOURTH. Maybe we should be discussing whether or not the Wood and SA Derby should be downgraded from Grade I status.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Gin — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 03:13:28 GMT

Wow so many posters here have loved this article and have given you once again high kudos on your wonderful writing! You have been great with everything during these preps thanks again!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

garyD — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 02:33:25 GMT

Concerning The Factor,I would feel better if Shackieford were not there to pressure...He's officially #23 in money but technically #21 and there's still 2 wks....The Bluegrass has no business still being a g-1,but the same could be said for numerous other races, i.e the O.Phipps and the Personal ensign..,small purses,small fields..g-1's should start at $1m so they are not confused with preps

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

Cuppy Track — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 02:06:01 GMT

Was it me or did Terry Wallace get caught anticipating how a race was going to be run and blew the call of the Ark Derby??...he totally got thrown off when JP's Gusto went to the front....One of the worst calls of a grade one race I've ever heard.....he didn't know who was running behind JDG on the backstretch....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

jon — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 01:32:18 GMT

Pletcher is dialing down expectations with Uncle Mo's possibly skipping the Derby. If he does, then I would be asking him to run R Heat Lightning, who just ran a bullet at Belmont.

If one realizes that GI issues sideline horses the same as they do people, Mo would be compromised if he isn't training or eating 100%. In that case, I'd rather see him skip. If not, he either wins it, or goes off the board.

In any case, we have the second charge of colts peaking before Derby Day as the precocious colts such as The Factor drop away. I am still wondering about Rattlesnkae Bridge and Mountain Town. More than that, I think R Heat Lightning can win the Derby, since other than Dialed in, I don't see any standouts if Mo remains on the sidelines. That means no Triple Crown Winner, and another bunch of crappy colts like Da Tara...

That said, I'll be interested to see who is foolish enough to enter colts who clearly don't belong in The Derby, and will never race again when they do. Twenty horses in a race is simply a cavalry charge, luck, and strikes me as flat out stupid. Keep the fields small, competitive, and flukey colts like Super Saver won't win.

I will keep my fingers crossed that we have R Heat Lightning in there, Mo recovers, or some mystery horse take the Triple Crown.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Arch of Triumph

El Kabong — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 00:46:47 GMT

KY Vet,

You make very good points and I appreciate the cap lock adjustment. Like you, I see the potential in MMM and Soldat, but I still like Nehro. I do not feel he has been "squeezed." I think his campaign resembles a horse you brought up, Super Saver. Both had two hard fought G's and finished very similarly, high 90's. So why do you think Nehro is squeezed if SS was not? How are Nehro's preps any different from Super Savers two from last year? Curious to hear your explaination.