Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Coldfacts — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 17:53:59 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Has Dynaformer sired a deby winner?

Has Gone West sire a Belmont winner?

Has Gones West son sired a Derby and Preakness winner?

Has Deputy Mminister sire a Preakness and several a Belmont winner?

Has Deputy Mminister been broddmare sire of several Belmont winners?

Has Buckpasser Been grandsire of two derby winners and broodmare sire of a Belmont winner?

If the answers to the above questions is Yes, your conclusion about BS in clearly wrong.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Ranagulzion — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 04:22:01 GMT

Matthew W,

I agree except that Mine That Bird had dirt pedigree top and bottom, and was produced from the prolific Derby-winner-producing Raise A Native sire line (can't say the same about Brilliant Speed).

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

rjb92 — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 00:34:20 GMT

brilliant flunked my 5 part test before his last race and i didn't use him. maybe his excuses are valid. i will use him along with midnight, dialed and factor in my triple.(fool me twice shame on me)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 18:59:17 GMT

Steve,

I remember about 1 month ago you had a blog with random 3 y/o colts listed. I was the only person to even mention Brilliant Speed as a horse that had talent and deserved a chance on dirt. His Bluegrass race was spectacular to me. He sat last and went flying by an extremely slow pace. I see him as a serious KY Derby threat. And yet he did not even make your April 18 D.D. list, I don't get it. You included Master Of Hounds and Animal Kingdom(who are both obvious grass horses to me), but no Brilliant Speed. Dynaformer has been known to throw both turf and dirt runners. This big horse has a long stride and should fall in love with the 1 1/4 mile distance of the KY Derby. This son of Dynaformer has brought back many happy memories of the late great Barbaro.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Barb — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 17:00:26 GMT

Last year I liked Stately Victor so I found excuses to explain away his dirt losses and bet him in my Derby superfecta. That didn't work out so well.

So this year the only way I'll play Brilliant Speed is if Rosario rides him in the Derby.

I still can't believe he got Make Music For Me home in 4th last year. That horse had zero dirt form, got badly beaten in his only 9f start, had one lifetime win and that was on turf, and so forth. IMHO that was a better ride than Calvin on Super Saver. At least Calvin had something to work with.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

StonesRoy — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 11:04:34 GMT

If Rosario stays on Brilliant Speed, I'll have to find a way to use him, as Joel has been en fuego this year.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

jayjay — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 10:58:42 GMT

SteveH : Man, this is going to mess me up because I've decided to throw out any horses that ran in the Bluegrass...but this article makes me wonder about BSpeed. I'll have to wait to see what post he gets and of course, his odds. He'll probably go off at around 15-1 or so, what do you think ?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Matthew W — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 01:31:20 GMT

Ranagulzion--Mine That Bird qualified for the Kentucky based on his synthetic track earnings as a two year old--if he hadn't gotten in, I suppose there would've been a dirt horse who would've drawn in--of corse, Birdie won by from here to across the street--by your methods he doesn't qualify, right? I say wrong!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

KY VET — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 20:52:29 GMT

Yes! the reason is.....they ran too good!!! Are you getting this people? you don't want to run too good!!!! Trust me! Nehro fans! you better listen.....the lemon has been squeezed! I make a living betting on horses.....just look at the field last year coming off great top races.....on and on...and on.....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:34:06 GMT

Once upon a time, we had quite a lot of horses who, like Round Table and Kelso, Ack Ack and Cougar II, John Henry and Exceller, Candy Ride and Lava Man, 'swung both ways': as good on dirt as turf. Now the assumption seems to be 'if he's good on turf, he can't be good on dirt.'

It would perhaps amaze some of these folks to realize that for decades when there was little if any turf racing in the US, the leading sires were largely turf-raced foreigners - Sir Gallahad III, Blenheim II, St. Germans, Bull Dog, Nasrullah - not a one of them ever set foot on a dirt course. Yet they sired dirt winners, Triple Crown winners some of them, numerous champions. Surface preferences are due to more than bloodlines and are not set in stone by pedigree.

Most of you are too young to remember *Hitchcock. He was a German-bred horse with generations of turf breeding who had finished third in the German Derby and won a G2-type race in France, all on turf. Yet when he came to the US, he adapted to dirt well enough to win the Suburban Hcp and two runnings of the Gallant Fox, back when those were top races (soon to become G1 and G2, respectively).

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Fran Loszynski — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 15:50:45 GMT

Jess Jackson was given two great gifts in horseracing before he left this good earth, how lucky he was. I'm sure the cancer became secondary to him simply because he had CURLIN AND RACHEL ALEXANDRA. What a great hoorah to go out on. I wanted to use your column to blog this Steve- because you liked Rachel and Zenyatta, heavy hitters this year and to lose a heavy hitter like Jess Jackson-he loved Rachel, so a heavy hitter columnist like you I choose to write this. I always liked Jess Jackson I thought he had "spunk"

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Steve Haskin — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 14:38:32 GMT

Rich P, I didnt say 8, I said 9, and I didnt say they were soundly beaten, I said they were out of the money.

From 120 down to 113 -- Bellamy Road, sinister Minister, Holy Bull, Millennium Wind, Unbridled's Song, Serena's song, Read the Footnotes, Skip Away, and Holy Bull again.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Ranagulzion — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 13:14:21 GMT

Dan C,

Take it from this AP Indy critic; the pensioner will have his breakthrough in this year's Derby via his best son Mineshaft. Dialed In will win the Kentucky Derby and Nehro (also sired by Mineshaft) has a great shot.

Brilliant Speed will not finish in front of Santiva at Churchill Downs. The latter is the only Bluegrass horse with a live shot at great odds. Something needs to be done about the Bluegrass Stakes in relation to the Derby because it keeps a couple of competitive Dirt horses on the outside looking in while giving a backdoor entry to grass/synthetic/unproven dirt runners. Thats a problem worth fixing instead of the annual attacks on the Graded earning system by some blog posters.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Rich P — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 13:03:07 GMT

Steve--You mentioned in your video with Lenny that a derby Trivia release said the top eight Derby Beyer figures all were soundly beaten. I tried unsuccessfully to find this info on-line. Can you be more specific.

Thanks, Rich P.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

donnyess — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 06:58:22 GMT

BS shows no precocity from the 2yo record, no dirt form, both of his wins were off 114n/c paces. The time to bet him was the Blue Grass where he was up against a weak field. Chances to hit the board improve on an off track.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

John T — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 03:12:36 GMT

Brilliant Speed looks more like a

Belmont type but it will be interesting first to see how he handles dirt again in the Derby.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Steve Haskin — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 02:34:39 GMT

I'm certainly not touting Brilliant Speed to win the Derby. I just found him instesting in many ways as a horse to keep an eye on in the exotics, especially this year. And, yes, Animal Kingdom is also intriguing if he handles the dirt. Brilliant Speed has far superior dirt breeding than Animal Kingdom. Hey, how about boxing those two with Master of Hounds in an all synthetic trifecta.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Paseana — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 01:48:18 GMT

Steve, I'm wondering if it might be an omen that Avalyn Hunter put up a pedigree piece on Brilliant Speed at exactly the same time you put up this blog entry!

You and Avalyn are both such terrific writers, and seeing work from both of you side-by-side, so to speak, is more than enough to make me know that I'm going to be working Brilliant Speed into the mix at least a little more that 2 weeks from now!

By the way, Steve....have you read Avalyn's books on Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector? Fabulous stuff! I highly recommend them!

Also, I agree wholeheartedly about Mrs. Weber being deserving of a Derby winner. I wish her and her Live Oak Plantation the very best of luck!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

David S — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 01:17:32 GMT

Played Blue Grass solely on surface handicapping and Brilliant was the bet. If I look at the Derby I can't back him as Dynaformer's are better on Syn and Turf. On other hand, they can run on dirt and love his distance capabilities. Odds will be the deciding factor.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Cuppy Track — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:29:56 GMT

I too made a nice wager on BS in the Bluegrass but, I'll pass in the Derby. He beat Twinspired and King Congie by what...less than a length??...Let's face it...the BG was a nice allowance race for Turf horses.

For those of you who love BS should really like Animal Kingdom who beat Twinspired soundly in the Spiral.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Zenyatta John — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:21:46 GMT

Wow! Second dam a full to Touch Gold! As much as he seems like a turf/poly horse , with those genes, he is eligible to jump up like Barbaro did.

I will have to take him more serious now and see how he works leading up to the race.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

FourCats — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:15:32 GMT

I will be looking very closely at any horse in the Derby coming from the Blue Grass. The track was extremely slow. The Blue Grass time of almost 1:51 would not usually be competitive for the Derby. But it was actually ok considering how slow the track was and how slow the other prep races have been. Probably the best race in the Blue Grass was from Twinspired as the track was favoring come-from-behind types. I would also give a close look to King Congie. Horses that make a sudden, premature move and then flatten out often do really well next time (and are often overlooked).

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

txhorsefan — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 23:40:16 GMT

Thank you, Steve, for analyzing and sharing this information about Brilliant Speed. With the times he has had with racing so green and immature at the start to then being able to go around horses and keep on going, he may have just the type of experience that is needed to navigate the cavalry charge of the derby. I'm always amazed by all the details you are able to pick out of watching a race and I thank you for your expert eye!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

timelywriter2 — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 22:00:42 GMT

Great comments about Brilliant Speed, which I endorse wholeheartedly. Fortunately, I saw all these features, the chiseled looks; swift acceleration; great distance pedigree, and troubled trips before the Bluegrass. Hence, I was able to win and set aside enough to bet on him to win again, i.e the Derby. BS sure looks like the real deal.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Brilliant Speed Revisited

Matthew W — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 21:13:23 GMT

Steve--nothing with Rosario is a toss-especially in a year like this, where, after their excuse laden final preps, horses like Uncle Mo and The Factor will be heavily bet, tire misrably, then everybody is gonna say "it figured, excuses or not, those two were not meant for 1 1/4, their connections practically have said so, themselves--it's most likely going to take more stamina to win the Derby--Brilliant Speed did all of that closing on Sat--I only saw the race once, but it looked to me like jockey Rosario dod not whip him until the very end--right before the wire--he was too busy steering him/keeping him clear--and changing leads on the fly--Joel Rosario is the best jock to come along in a long time--if he's up, I'll use Brilliant Speed--he passed them all--all in the stretch--they did what it takes, sometimes, in the Derby--pass lots of horses.....