Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

sceptre — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 23:01:53 GMT

Linda in Texas- my "immediately eliminates him from consideration" referred only to my previous sentence (that having Jump Start as a sire would eliminate Pants On Fire from consideration as the best bred of the potential Derby starters). Perhaps my phrasing should have been less ambiguous.--Sorry, but just now read your post.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Linda in Texas — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 22:54:03 GMT

sceptre - i need educating, why does Pants on Fire's Sire Jump Start immediately eliminate Pants on Fire from winning the Kentucky Derby?

I looked Jump Start up in the stallion register and after i counted the dapples on him and saw that the area around his flank's ripple,(that is what one poster said to look for in a good racehorse) and read about his wins and honors, the only thing i can possibly come up with is his ability to race longer distances. Might that be the issue that eliminates Pants on Fire?

I am dead serious here in asking.

I hate to ask a dumb question which this probably is to some, but i would rather ask a dumb question, than make a dumb mistake.

When i file something away in my head, i want it filed in the right drawer.

I think Jump Start is a rather handsome fella.

Thank you.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Giddyup — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 15:29:57 GMT

Good stuff Steve but where are the really crucial categories like BEST IMMITATION OF A ZENYATTA DANCE STEP and FASTEST AT DRAINING A DRAFT OF GUINESS?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

sniper — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 15:37:00 GMT

Point of interest

Raise a Native never ran further than 5F I believe--or at most 5 1/2

Although you can't compare the two with RAN being far more productive I am of the Halo camp which has lately set up shop in Japan.

Another line that should be sprint just as an example is the Northern Afleet from Afleet who was a great sprinter and should have won the BC Sprint---when stretched to 1 1/4 distance against what was very kind to say average group in the Queen's Plate and even with a big lead at the 1/8 off a good trip he couldn't last. Now my point--Afleet speed-Northern Afleet -speed but with stayers popping up--then Afleet Alex's which seem to run everything (I am quite surprised at his success so far)Breeding is far from an exact science. I am a firm believer that if a horse is talented enough his bloodlines don't matter. If you look hard and deep enough you can explain anything--John Henry? The Bible Code vs Moby Dick with the right computer program.

Far more productive to watch races and then pick. If Frankel were to come he would be my pick he could be very special---The Master although nice horse is 2nd tier--another question/point which I am not going to look up---just memory--wasn't it a filly that beat him in Dubai?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

JayJay — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 02:32:48 GMT

The Rock : Had a good day at HP yesterday, hit the Tri and .50 superfecta on the 6th race. It was pure hunch play on Kayla. Put her on 2nd for both tickets and nowhere else. Sometimes you get lucky...

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Pharlap — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 01:13:31 GMT

For the Pants on Fire advocates this is only an attempt to save you from yourselves. POF is an only early speed type that has not yet run the opening half in less than 1:12 and 1/5. He is at least a length behind several others in the race with that time and the Derby is no time to be running the fastest first half that he has ever seen. Up the track finisher with Comma on Top, Dec Moment, etc.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 22:40:29 GMT

Sceptre,

Once again, your "facts" are in error. War Front covered ("bred") 109 mares in 2007-not the 49 stated by you. It has absolutely no relevance”

The 49 mare bred relates to War Chant and not War Front the cited stallion. They are both sons of Danzig and the names are close. You will note that Midnight Interlude was the colt being highlighted not the slow Soldat or the extremely swift The Factor. I have state repeatedly that I prefer foals from stallions with small books. The relevance of this is unimportant as its one man’s views. Giaant’s Causeway bred 167 mares in 2007 and has one slow runner in the derby that has no chance of winning. Tapit bred nearly 200 and has no starter. Fusaichie Pegasus bred 150 and has none. I do not expect anyone to support these views so you need not worry about misinformation.

“just as the Raise A Native sire-lined Derby winners have no relevance”

Can history determine relevance? If you were in the market for a thoroughbred with classic potential, which sire line would be your first option? Northern Dancer that has procured 4 derby winners in 30 years ; A P Indy that has produced 2 derby winners in 25 years or Raise A Native that has produce 15 in the last 30 years? When one sire line produces the winner of 23 of last 30 Triple Crown race this achievement is unprecedented and can in no way be seen as irrelevant.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 22:06:02 GMT

Sniper,

Those are indeed some cold facts. I have no need to cheat as I have been doing some research on the dirt runner sired by Kingmambo and they are few and far between. Consequently, MOH is behind the eight ball with that bid of clod fact.

“Breeding DEFINITELY has it merits certainly not an all encompassing factor.”

Another cold fact! However, the RAN sire line has proven it itself to be the best in the world. The dam of the 2011 Dubai World Cup winner was sired by a son of Mr. Prospector. Curlin, Dubai Millennium and Street Cry won the Dubai WC and they were all sired by sons of Mr. Prospector. Add winners of the Melbourne Cup, The Arc, Japan Cup etc you will get how dominant this line is. I refuse to take lightly this sire line as it has proven over and over that it is superior to the rest. All MOH has to do is bring his A game to the dirt and his superior the pedigree will do the rest. He is the best at 10F going into the race. While I respect the achievements of the RANs ire line, I will not become paranoid about it as your statement above is colt facts.

“NO HORSE "LOVES" RUNNING 1 1/4--IT'S A LONG RUN ESPECIALLY WITH 126 POUNDS ON THEIR BACK”

I do not believe any horse like running with weight in its back. However, 10f and 12F races in Europe are literally obstacle courses and the European trainer are better at training horse for these distances.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Oldie — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 21:52:08 GMT

Coldfacts, I have great respect for your depth of knowledge and the amount of research you do, and am grateful for your willingness to share it with the rest of us. Therefore I hope you realize it is with absolute sincerity that I say: with all due respect, speculation is most certainly an acceptable basis, and in reality the only true basis, for a list such as this.

I derive immense pleasure from the discussions that always ensue from Mr. Haskin's columns, your contributions included. For me, this website and these discussions provide insight unequaled by any other single source, and have left me feeling reconnected to a sport I have loved since childhood.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Slew — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 21:37:09 GMT

How could I omit Toby's Corner and Stay Thirsty...I think they are both worthy adversaries? Ah well, I'll probably pick my horses in the post parade after all. And they might prefer to call them dark bays, but if a horse is black/dark bay, he's automatically one of my favorites. (gee whizz..there are more than 3...I'm stuck again.)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Slew — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 21:26:26 GMT

Always liked Pants On Fire...so happy to see he's being recognized. However, he seems, to me, to need to lead as does Soldat, The Factor and Uncle Mo. I think Archx3 and Midnight Interlude are mid-pack runners, and might have the best shot in the Derby. Dialed In...ultimate closer, and it will be tough for him but, considering the effort from Ice Box last year...it can be done. Mucho Macho Man, for as young as he is, is a really big boy, and I think he's tough and resilient. Another mid-pack runner. Master of Hounds...too much traveling from the uk to Dubai and back and then to the US..and no runs on dirt. Frankel, I wouldn't doubt but MOH has too much against him.

Personally, I love the horse and would love to see POF favored by the Derby gods with his wonderful, wacky name...etched forever on the rim of Churchill Downs. (A chuckle for the decades.)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Soldier Course — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 18:14:43 GMT

This year I am trusting my intuition, which worked so well in 2003 and 2004. Pants On Fire.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

sniper — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 17:50:09 GMT

OK Coldfacts I enjoy reading your posts and appreciate your study but logic is off because you miss obvious factors.

Sadlers Wells---name 5 horses by him that ran on dirt--period!!!!!-- OFF THE TOP OF YOUR HEAD. "Don't cheat and look some up." I am quite sure that as good of Stud he was ---if he stood in KY he would have some other than grass major winners. So throw that in the mix.

Breeding DEFINITELY has it merits certainly not an all encompassing factor.

HERE ARE SOME COLDFACTS

NO HORSE "LOVES" RUNNING 1 1/4--IT'S A LONG RUN ESPECIALLY WITH 126 POUNDS ON THEIR BACK--SOME ARE JUST BETTER AT IT. SOME ARE BETTER AT RELAXING AS WELL, WHICH HELPS THEM NEGOTIATE THE DISTANCE.

ANOTHER COLDFACT

NO HORSES LOVE RUNNING IN MUD OR SLOP--AGAIN SOME ARE JUST BETTER AT IT AND DON'T SLIP AND SLIDE AS MUCH AS OTHERS AND TAKE MUD IN THEIR FACE BETTER.

ONE LAST COLDFACT

SOME HORSES JUST HAVE AN EXTRA DESIRE TO WIN--IF IN WITH THE RIGHT BUNCH THEY WILL FIND WAYS TO GET THERE FIRST. SOMETIMES EVEN WHEN THEY ARE NOT THE FASTEST.

Other things to consider are trainers who can get the horse at the peak on the right day---Riders although last on the list in importance can by bad judgment cost a win. No jockey ever has run the race for the horse.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

El Kabong — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 17:42:33 GMT

Rachel,

Sing it sistah! I love your Soldat music. He still looks like a strong candidate to me too for all of the above. Foundation looks great and those times at GP leave me to believe that there has to be a reason for it other than--slow horse. How can Soldat run the 1 1/8 faster in the slop and return 4 weeks later, stronger, only to run a slower time on a "fast" track. I'm familiar with the concrete under the puddle for sealed tracks, but you don't see track records set on sloppy tracks. The times have looked slow at GP for the 1 1/8 all season on "fast" tracks and there track record at that distance is slower than most other tracks. Lack of water, too much wind? Not going to hold it against him or Dialed In.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

sceptre — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 16:54:49 GMT

Coldfacts:

Once again, your "facts" are in error. War Front covered ("bred") 109 mares in 2007-not the 49 stated by you. It has absolutely no relevance, anyway, just as the Raise A Native sire-lined Derby winners have no relevance (as it is, by far, the most prolific sire-line in the US). Please, no back and forths-it's all a waste of my time to argue with you. I mention all this only for the potential good of others-you seem to be beyond thoughtful reflection.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Sherry — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 14:57:18 GMT

Yes, I too like Pants On Fire. Years ago a filly came to me with a severe case of ringworm. My vet at the time (great guy) suggested tube worming. We did it and two weeks later she was dappled and broke her maiden by 10 lengths. Just a suggestion.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Bill Daly — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 14:40:54 GMT

Incidentally, if it keeps raining in Louisville the horses will need boats to navigate the course. The Ohio River is way up and flooding areas of the city. Some roads are impassable. Not sure about the neighborhood around CD though. Anybody have any info about that?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Rachel — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 13:55:48 GMT

Soldat: raced 8 times multiple tracks, 7 first or second, stakes from 7-1 1/8, turf, dirt, slop, front or come from behind, 2 of top Beyers for 2011 3 year-olds.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Still likin Graustark — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 13:34:01 GMT

Every year I analyze the derby contenders to look for Graustark in their pedigree. I could not believe the Graustark influence in Pants On Fire. It's easy to root for him to win it all.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Bill Daly — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 13:20:32 GMT

Thank you for the information on Pants On Fire. That is what people have come to expect from you and nobody else! Great work, Steve.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

EasyGoerFan — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 13:12:23 GMT

Pantalones en Fuego! I asked a friend to pick out the best name of the Top Twenty contenders and he was the winner. He's gonna scorch'em! :)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Moose — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 08:17:45 GMT

Well, I got "Lucky" with my future bets...AAA, Stay Thirsty and wait &

see if the other two get in. I've bet the wrong horses before only to see them come in. I use to do it for my uncle who was in a wheel chair. Once he told me to bet a 14-1 shot at River Downs and by accident I bet on the fave for fifty bucks.

My knees were shaking as his horse was in front by 6 lengths coming home. I was thinking of all the money I would owe him if his horse won. Halfway down the stretch his horse's tongue started hanging out...and here comes the fave to win. Do I tell him that I bet the wrong horse?

Another time I messed up his 2 dollar daily double bet at Turfway, but it came in and paid $450. We fought over should he get it all, and in the end we pooled our winnings for the day and split it.

In Barbaro's Derby, my RedHead g'fried liked BG Cat asking me to bet him to win. Are you kidding me? I'm a "handicapper" Ha! That one cost me 75G's......never doubt a RedHead.

I wish that my uncle were still here.....Moose

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Freetex — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:09:38 GMT

Thanks Steve, so much information to absorb with so little time. Egads! This Derby is a 5000 piece puzzle.

I still lean toward Aaa, Mmm, Mo, and the Factor. The Factor reminds me of War Emblem.

Of course there is MI, Toby's Corner, and Di too.

Geeze Laweeze!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Dona — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 04:30:04 GMT

If the track is fast, I'm going with Brilliant Speed! Just gotta give the Grand Ol' Man Dynformer some love! Rainy? Pants on Fire with Rosie on his back. Either way, it would be a jaw dropper for the masses.

I think Brilliant Speed can run on any surface. He's trained well on dirt and I don't think it will be an issue. He's one of the few that will relish the distance.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Pre-Derby Awards

Footlick — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 03:35:43 GMT

Brian Russell- It is nice that racing in Dubai is so simplistic. I hope you had all the winners on the card, since you have it all figured out. And as far as Master of Hounds being beaten by a filly, she is very high class and was in amazing form in Dubai. They totally outclassed the rest of the field. She was a very determined closer and better that day. He was making his first start in 4 months- at 9.5 furlongs. Our horses have just made it to 9 furlongs after two or three races, because our trainers feel that it is too much to ask them to go 9 furlongs off a layoff. But, he goes 9.5 furlongs off the layoff. Give the horse credit. Question his ability to run on dirt, that is a valid argument, but don't slight his performance.