Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

UncleStosh — Thu, 05 May 2011 01:37:27 GMT

Wow, for a veteran, profit producing handicapper KY VET, you sure sound like a newbie. No real handicapper would be so certain that a horse whose best race was at 8.5f, 8 months ago in his 2 year old season, coming off an infection in which the trainer sounds as if it is still present, and an owner who seems like he would run the horse with anything short of a broken cannon bone.

Fact: UncleMo nor any other horse in the field has run "fast enough" to win the derby bc none of them has ever run the Derby distance. Handicapping 101 lesson #1.

Lesson#2: 8.5f is closer to a sprint race than a route no matter how many turns there are.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

KY VET — Tue, 03 May 2011 01:30:03 GMT

MISCONCEPTIONS.....Alot of people think these workouts mean anything.. who taught you this? a book? These horses are already in shape! workout times are close to meaningless...the only thing about them, is showing how they feel...not how fast....any of these horses can work in 58 if they want to...YOU DON"T WANT THAT!..."oh! uncle mo isn't working fast!" who cares? You should want that! He is a smart horse(not high strung) which is a great sign! He is able to rate! Its the high strung 58 for 5 f ones you gotta worry about....by the way Mo outworked the older horse that ran a 107 beyer earlier in the year..then out worked stay thisty....OH YEA...Mo doesn't look good!!! the zen lady says he is not pulling like last year.....GREAT!!!! that is a good sign! not a bad sign.....I DON"T CARE IF MO GET DEAD LAST! HE ALREADY SHOWED HIS GREATNESS! It WON"T be the distance, or the breeding...it will because he isn't sound, or somone does a mine that bird, and improves 8 lengths..Same for dialed in...They already ran great....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

MikeM — Mon, 02 May 2011 21:43:42 GMT

I'm sure UM gives a very nice appearance,shinny coat etc. etc. But in watching his work it is very clear that JV had to nudge him along to keep up and gallop out.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

KY VET — Mon, 02 May 2011 20:46:05 GMT

As i posted earlier....Only uncle Mo has run fast enough to win the derby!!!! plain and simple....It usually takes a 105 or better!!! all other horses you people are picking can fire their best race, and lose the derby!!! Go into this race knowing that fact....So Whoever wins, will improve at least 3 to 5 lenghts....which happens....So....the question is, who can improve to a 105? Since Mo already has run faster, he is likely to....if Mo isn't right, then a horse that is improving, lighter raced, is the smart way to go....But some people keep saying the opposite...not enough bottom they say....no common sense! Nehro has run too many improving races! get off this horse! you will lose! biggest dissapointment of derby! mmm good horse hasn't fired...got a chance if modoesn't fire, but you gotta believe mo will fire...if he does, all the close to the pace horses are toast......and none of the closers except dialed in has run fast enough! So go with a horse that is improving but not tired.....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

KY VET — Mon, 02 May 2011 20:29:49 GMT

If i ever have to wonder why i make money in this game, all one has to do, is to read these comments many of these posters make...Some people try to say uncle mo didn't run fast in the breeders cup! really? Hey, thats fine if you like a horse, and not another horse...but the reasoning people make up is crazy...someone said,"dialed in lacks the sweeping move needed for the derby." really? Are you on drugs? what are you watching? His move is jaw dropping! Have you actually watched his races? Then theres the guy that doesn't like mmm because he is young? He ran great as 2 yr old, been there against everybody all year! all of a sudden he gets younger? Is this that bad brad pitt movie? logic would make sense to like him more not less if he is younger right? Bizarre! Uncle mo ran 3 Great races right? 108 in the cup....one of the fastest ever...and some people say maybe he matured early, and won't improve off 2 yr old form...which is ok...except he doesn't have to be BETTER! does anybody get that? MO might be worse than last year, but its from attrition...running fast hurts horses!!! mo loses and people think its because he didnt mature? I thank god for you people every day!!! Try to make some kinda sense!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Weekend — Mon, 02 May 2011 20:05:28 GMT

Thanks Zen for you perspective.

On a totally different horse, Master of Hounds.

Obrien is one of the best trainers in the world. He has never really sent horses to the US for the derby when he could have. One of my buds who is a huge player said he has heard MOH is coming with a shot. Do I like him, no, but I have been wrong many times before. He could be there at the end with Animal Kingdom, the two with the best breeding and tomlinson numbers in the race. The horse with the best tomlinson number won last year....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Zen's Auntie — Mon, 02 May 2011 19:02:04 GMT

Billy's Empire

Conformationally, I think Mo is among the top of the crop - He ALWAYS looks good to me.

I WISH I was watching these 3 year olds in the slop every morning Live but Its all video to me (DI is the only one in here I have seen race live) but I like being able to replay and focus on differrent aspects of the work - this is my hobby NOT my job so its just honest fun.

Im telling you, to me on various angles on the TV Mo just did NOT look like his old self yet. Not even as good as he looked in the Timely Writer (he should have stayed in FL - they grow things inthe SUN for a reason) Certainly Not Better than was as a two year old. He just doesnt seem to have the Muscle he carried going into the BCJ. Go back and look at the crease in his croup and how his neck shoulder and dip in front of the wither is filled in even as a 2 year old. Also speaking of head set look at his relaxed lewerd pupming and pulling action that I liked so much in his crushing BCJ. He is not moving that nice Sunday.

Im not saying he looks terrible, Im saying he is not as good as he CAN BE. Horsemen are seeing this pretty plainly.

I realize Stay Thirsty has improved, this should be no surprise; He is a bred well, good looking colt that cost 250K more than his workmate. Much improved but not this much, Mo is NOT his top self thats still my opinion. We can agree to disagree on it.

Well put Danny UK.

Johnny,

DI has grown up so much into this its just amazing. I need a deep closer to Love, its my thing, and its him right now especially in his fitness condition - hes Made to close to the 1 & 1/4 so is Nehro - can you see them duking it out?

JUst one more MO thing - I know Mike R Loves these horses but...Pride goeth before the Fall. I wish Mike would Just run ST. He is actually bred a little better for the 1&1/4. and approaching best form.

Im not sure who looked not so good but I will say Rosie has a MUCH better mount than Calvin.

3M (its kinda ironic a horse would be sponsored by GLUE makers right? or is it just me?) is Ready for this as any of them are as well.

Wish I would have seen Toby's Corner and Master of Hounds but didnt get to. I think not being At CD now is a disadvantage.

Archarcharch just looks great to me. Him and Court are a real team so focused and workmanlike wasting nothing and that means something.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

dionjpf — Mon, 02 May 2011 16:48:36 GMT

Hi All,

Do not leave out comma to the top, he have the speed and stamina to win this, I agree with all that like soldat and sandive, Mo will not last the 1 1/4 and finally to make the tri stick in stay thirsty you return will be BIG

Good Luck

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Danny UK — Mon, 02 May 2011 16:27:14 GMT

Of the American colts, only Uncle Mo and ArchArchArch have really shown true class. I'm interested in Stay Thirsty because of his pedigree, and it wouldn't be a complete shock if Pletcher had another ace up his sleeve.

Master of Hounds is interesting, because he's shown enough class over here, to suggest he can really mix it with the big boys over middle distances and longer. It's his stamina rather than speed which is so impressive. A sloppy track will really play to his strengths.

Overall, I think Hounds is good enough to run to a place if not win (especially in testing conditions), and I can only really see ArchArchArch or Stay Thirsty finishing infront of him.

I hate to say it, but I don't think Uncle Mo will ever reproduce his two year old form. He was an early bloomer, but the colts with the bigger size and scope have all improved beyond him. Perhaps his future lies as a sprinter, or perhaps he's just destined to be an average horse, much like St. Nicholas Abbey (over here) last year.

I'll be backing ArchArchArch, Stay Thirsty and Master of Hounds, and over a slopppy track I'll be heavily favouring the latter.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

MikeM — Mon, 02 May 2011 15:55:35 GMT

In his final work UM worked likw ST and ST looked like UM. JV had to keep after him to keep up. Shakelford looked great and will be heard from.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

SACK THE SECRATARY — Mon, 02 May 2011 15:47:52 GMT

Props to ZA,I guess you are there to see the workouts in person.If you are which horses do not look that well?And now the chief architect of vitamin water is calling the shots for the derby. If UM wins is he gonna promote vita water for free and save the company the money paid to human athletes to promote it.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

bill daly — Mon, 02 May 2011 15:18:34 GMT

Kudos to Neil Howard for his win Saturday night with Machen and for his sensible approach towards the horse. Machen, as most of us know, has shown he is a gifted one-turn horse who may turn out to be something special. Howard emphatically stated he planned on keeping Machen on the one-turn track. It's really refreshing to hear that. A lot of people would have toyed with the idea of running him The Preakness, but not Mr. Howard. He's been around too long and knows a classic horse when he sees one. He did train Mineshaft, a true classic horse, so he knows something about a thoroughbred's potential. Really nice to see somebody out there with some common sense.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Giddyup — Mon, 02 May 2011 14:27:49 GMT

That first paragraph in your blog should be sounding an alarm Steve. Just too many quality colts have fallen by the wayside and this is a disturbing trend that has been going on the past few years. I don't know whether it has to do with breeding, training or what but the industry simply has to find some remedy so that the marquee event of the sport showcases the cream of the crop and not simply "survivors".

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Johnny — Mon, 02 May 2011 13:33:32 GMT

Zens Auntie:

I agree just from the Pics I saw Dialed In looks awesome. I saw him at Gulfstream this year twice and he looks like a different horse.

He is in my mind the best horse going in..He is going to have to pass alot of horse though..

Dialed In 2nd by a nose??

To who though that is the question???

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Weekend — Mon, 02 May 2011 13:28:31 GMT

Ok, just a quick note. I watched horses and works from 530 to 9am on Saturday.

Zen's Auntie. I have to disagree with your above statement regarding Uncle Mo. I was at the 5/8 gap clocker stand talking to Pants on Fire's farm worker . (get to him in a minute) The Derby horses special training period had just started. A few of the horses went buy and comments were made about Shacklefords akward action, how Joyful Victory was pulling Larry Jones big butt around the track etc. and then we looked down the track and saw a Derby horse. At about the same time, 2-3 people said"who is that?" in very curious way. Uncle Mo galloped by looking like a million bucks. His coat had a sheen to it, his head was high, and he was full of himself. His chest and neck area made some of the other derby horses look plain. He was a sight to see, and I saw him plenty as a 2yo. Would we of like to see one more work, yes, but Pyhsically, he looks great.

Following up on the looking great comment, Animal Kingdom is a freak. He looked fantastic as well. He looked like he had no issue whatsoever getting over the fast track. He did it easy and was not blowing at all.

Pants on Fire, as mentioned earlier, looked dapppled out as well. I saw no lingering effects of the skin rash/ringworm that was mentioned he had after the risen star. He went by and looked really good as well.

Plum Pretty still is looking great on the track. She is doing everything easy.

Joyful Victory looked the best on Saturday, with Summer Soiree right behind her. I am worried about her getting in a speed dual and tiring out. going back on Wed and thursday morning for final looks and updates.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

datflippinrabbit — Mon, 02 May 2011 13:13:13 GMT

I'm sold on Pants on Fire i'll be looking for him at the top of the stretch carrying a ton of odds.AAA should be in the mix as well.The La Derby and the Ak Derby were by far the best preps.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

The Deacon — Mon, 02 May 2011 06:29:47 GMT

Love this post Steve. I still Uncle Mo wins the Derby if he sound. I also think Stay Thirsty has a shot as does Midnight Interlude. Baffert can never be counted out in this race.

I know folks like Nehro but I think he may still be to unseasoned to tackle the 10 furlongs demands of this race and also he may have to go around tiring horses. It is a daunting task to ask a young 3 year old to do this...........good luck to all

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Indiana Johnny — Mon, 02 May 2011 03:25:19 GMT

Steve, how many more updated reports will you do before Derby?

I've always liked MMM and Soldat, and still do. I got them with Uncle Mo in pool 2 $10 ex box.

I'm dropping Mo from my tri box, adding AAA, and still undecided on the 4'th., maybe some hefty odds with either Stay Thirsty, Brillant Speed, both have a good TDR #

Hope to see more from you soon. We're getting close.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Mskya — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:40:32 GMT

Hi Steve, you just gave me the confidence I needed to go ahead and take my leap of faith on my derby horse. The horse that has fallen off the radar. The only horse that keeps jumps out at me, even when all logic seems to point against it. That horse is Soldat.

The way I see it, I'm putting a line through the Florida derby. Dropping his 103 beyer down to about 96 because it was Sloppy. That gives him a 96, 96 springboard pattern coming into the derby. Maybe he can pop a 105-108 beyer for this.

His running style is perfect, like Super Saver's. I like him for 1st or 2nd. Really like that no one else likes him (except for you) Thanks again Steve. I hope we both hit. :)

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Coldfacts — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:06:15 GMT

Steve,

I think what is being missed is that fact that the group Uncle Mo was brilliant against is not the group he will be running against in the Derby with the exception of Stay Thirsty. Below are the splits for the 2010 BCJ. He was 4 1/4L ahead at the post in the BCJ. The second place finisher BAT possibly completed the race in 1:43.60 to 1:44. Why was the closest finisher only able to come within 4 1/4L of him? The simple answer is, the closest finisher’s best time for 8 1/2F on that day was 1:43.60 at beat. The others were completing 8 1/2F in times of 1:45 and greater. Let’s assume Uncle Mo is just as brilliant as a 3YO and compare his BCJ time to some of the times recorded in some of the prep races. The 8.5F times for races used in the comparison were extrapolated and might be a bit off:

BCJ 23.57, 47.27, 1:11.92, 1:36.33, 1:42.60

FL Derby 23.30, 46.35, 1:10.63, 1:36.38, 1:43.22

AK Derby 22.54, 46.53, 1:11.22, 1:36.18, 1:42.76

SA Derby 22.31, 47.33, 1:11.53, 1:36.05 1:42.35

The winners of the above derbies are clearly better than Stay Thirsty who Uncle Mo defeated by 14 ½ in the BCJ. The times recorded by some of the derby winners are in some cases faster and in other cases are much faster than the runner up in the BCJ. Uncle Mo the brilliant 2YO would have to improve significantly to dominate the entire group in the derby field. Below are the fractions for his only serious race as a 3YO :

23.49, 47.98, 1:12.28, 1:37.26, 1:43.59, 1:49.93.

He ran about a second slower than his BCJ effort. It was reported that his post race examination revealed an infection that might have contributed to his less than stellar effort in the Wood. Let’s ignore his Wood related medical issue. How much improvement was expected from Uncle Mo as a 3YO? Was he expected to be running 1:34 for a two turn mile? Even the very good ones rarely, if ever record such times for two turn miles. Was he expected to improve his 8 1/2F time by two seconds to 1:40.and a bit? The WR on dirt is 1:39 and a bit recorded on the speed strip of the now defunct Bay Meadows. Uncle Mo recorded times as a 2YO that it was unlikely he would be significantly faster as a 3YO. His 2YO brilliance if repeated will not be sufficient to dominate the cream of 3YOs as they are running just as fast as he was as a 2YO. It is not likely that he has improved by two second and that is what it will take to be as dominant as he was as a 2YO.

He might have survived this far but he will not survive the tag teams awaiting him in the derby

re: Haskin’s Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Zen's Auntie — Mon, 02 May 2011 01:21:05 GMT

Mo, I love him too, I wish they would just scratch him now already. He is still thin in the neck and shoulder and hasn’t really had a chance to muscle up right for this kind of test. I keep hearing a really hard sell of how great he is doing… hmmm.

Mo has never looked so much Stay Thirstys equal as he did today. It's nice for ST but does NOT bode well for giving Mo a chance to show how good he really is.

I say wait till the horse can win, I know TP made a point to say there is another path choice for UM "if he wouldn’t be ready" and it would be in MO's best interest to explore this path now.

Others are coming in at mid to high 90% of their top form and he is Maybe 80%. It looks like he needs a few more weeks of HARD work and Groceries to regain his natural form. There will not be a TC winner here lets be realistic 1 & ¼ then 1 & ½ on this much condition? I do believe in racing up to a big race but that’s too much to ask of a colt at Mo’s depth of bottom right now. Mo is really a special horse. He isnt his best right now. So why not shoot for HOTY by waiting, training and winning races you can win.

Maybe he will win despite not being his best. If he wins it will really be something.

Moving on...

Zito had a halo this morning (I swear he had that apparition look!) talking about how the clould’s opened up For Dialed In to go out and look like "all that" magnificent prancing and bucephalous stuff. All Nick needed was a vestment...

Dialed In was breathing fire and easily looked like the fittest horse coming into this race. I cannot believe how much filling in growth and form he has put on since March.

There is so much luck involved, starting again Wednesday. I’m not sure that DI can run down Archarcharch Or Mo or whoever has the lead at the top, but I will have hackles raised screaming when he makes that late move. He's no Zenyatta (maybe someday, hey I can dream if I want too) but he gets it done mostly.

MMM looks like his feet are size 5 they seem Huge, good for concussion dispersal, bad for ripping off shoes... maybe it’s his gear or the glue ons too and how tall he is - but DANG.

Also much is being made of his little beating around the wire to which he responded well . I know it seemed harsh to some observers but you actually have to train the colt to respond properly to the intense whip when asked - if you never crop them in training you get weaving misdirected energy fright and who knows what else MMM looked like he was just hand galloping along fast but half loafing and I liked his response too, it so that was good training. This horse is really growing up fast and looks light on his feet fit and ready with a HUGE stride benthic heart girth and big freaking feet.

Props to Machen, who caught Dominus thinking bout the winners circle - that dirty chestnut is a gutsy little Horse and deserved the win. We will see many more stakes wins from this gritty horse who made every inch.

re: Haskin’s Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Matt Helm — Mon, 02 May 2011 00:28:35 GMT

Just read in DRF that Repole is poppin off about how much he is going to bet on Uncle Mo to make sure he is the favorite on Saturday.Go right ahead Mike spend some of that vitamin water money.Nothing would make me and thousands of others happy if this is the case.PS this dude reminds me of Ernie Paragallo without the black shirt.

re: Haskin’s Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Johnny — Sun, 01 May 2011 23:39:58 GMT

Like the box tri Steve..

I read on another site that MMM has glue shoes on his front feet..

I see Dialed In getting 3rd or 4th but not the win..

Toby's Corner I like alot.

I am also going to do a 5 horse tri bomber box..

Keyed by Schackelford he is getting alot of press now I was hoping for 30-1 on him

Good luck to all.

re: Haskin’s Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

Steve Haskin — Sun, 01 May 2011 21:50:53 GMT

post positions have no bearing on it, nor does Uncle Mo. As I said it is based solely on my rankings on March 9 as explained in the story

re: Haskin’s Derby Report: Repole Pair Sole Breeders' Cup Survivors

robinm — Sun, 01 May 2011 21:12:41 GMT

So Steve, do I interpret this to mean you still have Uncle Mo as "1" in your Derby Dozen but will not be using him as 1 of the 5 horses in your trifecta box?