Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Wrensflight — Sat, 07 May 2011 23:42:49 GMT

Wow, Steve, you nailed it!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

datflippinrabbit — Thu, 05 May 2011 00:48:46 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

i don't like Nehro as he is still green,has two solid efforts winning none and his last work was not spectacular,his odds will be shorter than POF who beat him.Go back and look at the La Derby,he really dug in when MMM came to him,and that race was one of the few to come back in under 1.50.Ya can't bet em all.POF is live with his ability to stalk and keep out of the hunt.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

sniper1 — Tue, 03 May 2011 19:14:08 GMT

Still early but as I won’t have the luxury of how the track is playing to post time because I will be at the track –no big bet in either race

For the benefit of those brave "Prognosticators" who put their picks up and boast they are brilliant—I have no such delusions of grandeur in this year’s Derby but for comparison sake I will live with these picks for the challenge.

OAKS---Really wanted R Heat Lighting to run because I didn’t like her—now I am chalk—automatic lowering of wager

Joyful Victory . Zazu, $20 Exactor Box and on top of in tri’s

Lilacs and Lace, Daisy Devine, Kathmanblu underneath $24 ticket in tri

Derby Pick/Bet

By DEFAULT

Dailed In

over

Archarcharch, MMM, Decisive Moment, Midnight Interlude, Nehro, Stay Thirsty with

Archarcharch, MMM, Decisive Moment, Midnight Interlude, Nehro Stay Thirsty, add Soldat and Shackleford in 3rd--$48 ticket

Then put Midnight Interlude on top of Dailed In for 2nd

with the same (include the 3rd horses) $7 add on--total $55 which is more than this Derby is worth

If I hit it will pay enough especially if Decisive Moment can crack the first 3—I just watched the races again and just saw how close how many average horses were there at the 1/8 pole in the Wood so I just can’t Mo it (although if he bounces back it won’t shock me) and think the second place was not really Derby class although on that day I used him because I thought the field was so weak and the winner just beat him. The winner and place horse both checked more than once in the Wood so that even makes Mo’s Wood worse. Soldat really didn’t run well in the FL Derby but did in the slop--sooo

I would be truly surprised if I wasn't pretty close in the Oaks---the Derby that's an animal of a different color---I suspect I could be way off

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

sniper1 — Tue, 03 May 2011 16:41:27 GMT

Horses for Courses

Although in another blog I mention that Joel might be the top rider in the game now to the Borel (after the wedding)camp and in a zone I would still make JL my first choice because he rides there.

Now for reality ---a rider usually is the least important part of a win---I put the exercise rider and groom in importance before the rider. You say 5 lengths over any ---I say 100 riders-- we have so many good ones --are within a length. I don't believe the top jock in FL or NY this winter even have a mount.

Horse runs the race not the jock.

Another tip---agents make the jock not the other way around---look for A Garcia to have a great few years---he has the best in the business

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

poormansracehorse — Tue, 03 May 2011 16:28:08 GMT

So many different takes on this years Derby! Usually I have one or two favourites but not this year. I'm just going to take chicken route perch on the fence.

BTW folks please stop making the editor in me crazy by referring to horses as 'out of' a stallion. Horses are 'by stallions' and 'out of' mares, never the other way around.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

sniper1 — Tue, 03 May 2011 16:26:49 GMT

All is about done as far as workouts--of course I am not on track and have to get drips and drabs on HRTV (TVG was much better and informative) but the only horse that consistently worked well "to me" MMM--Now whether he is good enough is another matter.

The star of this article although I could be very wrong--after watching the Spiral a few times I still think the 2nd PL finisher ran a much better race. He is my weirdy for the Derby to make the ticket.

AK might well have more potential but when handicapping a event it is the now that carries the most weight.

From weather reports it doesn't look promising of a fast track with rain on Oak's day. If the Derby wasn't hard enough already it may could down to the horse that handles the off track best.

Good Luck to all.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

sargon — Tue, 03 May 2011 15:47:30 GMT

This is off topic, but last year you made a post of the best dirt fillies of the last 50 years. I believe you said you might do one of the grass fillies-do you think you might do that? If so I can't wait to see it.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Gardner — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:45:56 GMT

Have you seen Twice the Appeal yet? Is he getting over the track okay? Does he appear to be a horse that will relish a tight rail trip?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Zen's Auntie — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:45:25 GMT

And it just gets more WIDE open, I understand Motions desire to err on the side of Caution. Kudos Grahm

I like Archarcharch's maintenance move. This colt is ready.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Monarchos Matt — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:42:33 GMT

Mr. Haskin-

Thanks for the report on Animal Kingdom. With the defection of Toby's Corner, he seems like the next best closer after Nehro and Dialed In, and perhaps Brilliant Speed...and shoulx offer a lot of value. However, what gives me a bit of pause is that his win in the Spiral over the poly doesn't look as good on paper as it did visually. He ran a length off the pace of a :46.1 half and then came home in :39 and change for his final 3/8 and then in :13 and 2 for his final 1/8. Any thoughts on those fractions? Perhaps he'll improve on the dirt but those closing splits don't appear competitive here.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

barryaksarben — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:37:36 GMT

Buster had some good comments but I couldn't get past the error. A horse is not out of his sire but by his sire and out of his dam. Not to be a nudge but it kept throwing me. Any top horse with Candy stripes in his lineage is going to be FAST. I love him as a sire and still have chills when I remember Candy Ride's Pacific win.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:34:45 GMT

HorseForCourses, Animal Kingdom's female side has stamina coming out of the wazoo. German classic blood, the stoutest in the world. He even has a line back to Kincsem, she of 54 wins in 54 starts at the highest levels.

And Mr. Frisky was not a sprinter; he's the horse who won the Santa Anita Derby with the beginnings of a massive tumor growing in his sinuses. Criticizing his Derby effort is like criticizing Lost in the Fog for his loss in the BC Sprint, with his fatal cancer already started in his gut.

Toby's Corner pedigree reminds me of Silver Charm's in a way. Solid racehorses in all the slots and plenty of old-style US bloodlines - no Raise a Native or Storm Cat. Do not overlook the stamina influence of Deputed Testamony, damsire of Bellamy Road.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Mcguane — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:33:24 GMT

Steve,

Disappointing news for Toby's Corner's connection. The story has come out the Toby has been withdrawn from the Derby due to lameness in his left hind and did not ship from Fair Hill to Churchill Downs as expected this morning.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Monarchos Matt — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:32:12 GMT

Datflippinrabbit-

If you're of the opinion that the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby were the two best preps, as I am, doesn't Nehro deserve your attention? He was the most impressive horse in both races.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Weekend — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:03:31 GMT

toby's corner scratched

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Slew — Tue, 03 May 2011 13:23:21 GMT

I've Been watching the works and I have to say...perhaps it's a very good thing the horses are forced to work in the slop, because it's more than likely they will have to deal with it on Saturday.

Animal Kingdom has a push button acceleration that was amazing to watch, but he really pounds the track like a jack hammer. However, Archx3 and POF seemed to glide over the sloppy track with little effort and and maximum economy. They were beautiful and exciting to watch. Stay Thirsty is the sleeper of the bunch. His stride is elegant. I really preferred his work to Uncle Mo's. MMM runs very well, but he seems highly intelligent which makes him very young and curious. With a crowd of 100,000, will he keep his concentration on the track? Twice the Appeal??? You simply can't ignore Borel. I'm still of the opinion that the mid-pack runners will win the day. (And I'm absolutely rooting for Rosie). But if Ice Box could run so well last year, you simply can't exclude the deep closers. I guess the final picks will come after post positions are drawn. One more day....one more day.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Weekend — Tue, 03 May 2011 12:59:57 GMT

RAIN RAIN RAIN, get you mudders on your tickets. Soldat, MMM, Toby, Animal, Stay Thirsty,

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

datflippinrabbit — Tue, 03 May 2011 11:53:40 GMT

This Derby is wide open as said by many trainers,so you've gotta play for money,i'm sticking with my nag Pants on Fire,La derby was the best prep by far with two horses coming back to run well.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

HorsesForCourses — Tue, 03 May 2011 10:33:19 GMT

I like like Animal Kingdom's Pedigree, also. Leroidesanimaux seems more to produce the type of horse with speed, and he seemed to be pretty much a mile-type horse when he was running. I bet his daughter, Sarah's Secret, at Hollywood Park and won with her on Sunday when she was going 6F on the turf. I have been in the game a long time, I strongly feel that his progeny are not geared for 1 1/4 mile. Dialed in is one of the few horse who has not completely showed his "hand" yet, as he has only had 4 races, and they haven't gotten to the bottom of him as many of the other horses have gotten to their full potential. I think he has the best breeding in the race, as Mineshaft was

a true 1 1/4 mile horse, being out of AP Indy;many of the other horses are questionable as they seem to have alot of sprinting blood in them.(Warfront, Mr. Frisky etc..). I like Brilliant Speed with the world's greatest jockey, Joel Rosario, who is much the best jockey in this race. He may be the greatest rider ever. Brilliant Speed's pedigree is super strong for 1 1/4th miles, being out of Dynaformer who also produced Barbaro; his dam is from a tremendous line that suggest distance and her sisters won at the classic distances and the dam is related to 1 1/2 mile Belmont winner Touch Gold, tremendous horse With Approval, and Canadian Triple Crown winner Izvestia. Add the best rider in the world to these factors and you may have the Derby Winner. Uncle Mo is out of Indian Charlie, who seemed just like a Miler as Baffert never could get him to get the classic distance. I reviewed all of the videos on WinBy5.com (they have a great Kentucky Derby Primer page where you can watch all of the races quickly and on one page), and they also have all of this information, and stories, about Joel Rosario that are very convincing that he gives your horse a 5-length advantage over even the best jockeys.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Buster Says — Tue, 03 May 2011 10:31:14 GMT

I got down on Animal Kingdom in the future book. When most of the Derby horses are looking for an oxygen tank in the stretch, this one will still be running.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

trackjack — Tue, 03 May 2011 09:58:54 GMT

KY VET,

I'll correct you. The word 'tank' is not in Steve's description of Shackleford.

Try politics, then you can put words in a person's mouth they didn't say.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

Paseana — Tue, 03 May 2011 04:57:38 GMT

For what it's worth, Leroidesanimaux's damsire Ahonoora also had a say in a pretty nice dirt racemare that ran a few years back.

He is the broodmare sire of Azeri!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

SACK THE SECRATARY — Tue, 03 May 2011 03:22:03 GMT

Have a few more pints of vitamin water so you wont stay thirsty and its about time to narrow that top ten list to 5.So lets get the workout list narrowed down too.Top five workouts,bottom five.I think commenting on workouts is very subjective anyway and the way the media has positive things to say about almost all the workouts is enough to confuse the casual fan.BTW what is a textbook workout and do you think all the trainers read the same book.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

mintjulep53 — Tue, 03 May 2011 01:59:17 GMT

Steve- I am a fan through your published prose and via your comments on "At the Races". Your insight esp regarding the Derby Trail is wonderful. You have a unique ability to blend historical facts & your personal observations. You are my eyes @ Churchill your observations confirm my own feelings. Seeing Shackleford's work time and then reading your opinion validates he is worthy of Derby consideration. Keep up the good work!

re: Haskin’s Derby Report: An Animal on Dirt?

KY VET — Tue, 03 May 2011 01:33:55 GMT

Correct me if i'm wrong....the fact that shackleford looks like a tank........that's good? thats a mile and a quarter horse? or a quarter horse? really? that's what we should look for in a distance horse?