Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

artistinwax — Wed, 25 May 2011 17:31:16 GMT

Is Shackelford over on the knee on his front right foreleg? If he is, it certainly does seem to function okay at the moment.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Slew — Tue, 24 May 2011 13:47:12 GMT

Wubert, I still think that the Belmont just be Nehro's turn.

KY vet: Don't know how you make a living at handicapping, since you haven't been right yet. You sort of remind me of Draynay....Always chalky...always wrong.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

KY VET — Tue, 24 May 2011 01:07:42 GMT

THE MESSAGE ABOUT DIALED IN...WAS FOR THE DERBY! I THOUGHT 9/2 WAS GOOD ODDS....THEN I WENT OFF HIM AFTER MY PEOPLE DIDNT LIKE HOW HE LOOKED AT CD.....I BET MMM....THEN BET DIALED IN IN PREAKNESS....SO WHAT? IM NOT ALWAYS RIGHT...I DO MAKE A LIVING AT THIS GAME...

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

PomDeTerre — Mon, 23 May 2011 14:30:53 GMT

looks like another losing Preakness for the "professional gambler" KY VET, a/k/a Charlie Cigar with his "gift" of Dialed In "at 3/1 or better". I'm happy with my exacta tix.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Wubert — Mon, 23 May 2011 05:18:31 GMT

"Some question Shackleford’s inability to win the Derby after setting such a slow pace. Don’t be fooled by that pace. The track was on the cuppy side that day and that takes a toll on a horse going a mile and a quarter. From a visual standpoint, the field was not bunched up, as it should have been had that been a legitimately slow pace. Instead, the field was strung out almost 20 lengths, which normally signifies a fast, now slow, pace. That means those horses may very well have been using the kind of energy they would have had the actual fractions been faster. So, we’re not taking the slow pace all that seriously."

Great heads up on Shackleford! Too bad I read this AFTER the race. The question now, can Shackleford win the Belmont? Animal Kingdom, Nehro and MMM caught him at the longer distance. Shackleford held them at bay at a furlong shorter. Can he hold them off at a mile and a half??

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Linda in Texas — Sun, 22 May 2011 20:51:25 GMT

Steve, the next to last sentence in the statement you made in your article was re: Shackleford - "the key with him is how the pace scenario plays out." You were so correct. Once again he and Flashpoint had the key to the pace.

Flashpoint just tired and Shackleford didn't. Animal Kingdom got behind traffic which could have caused his loss.

Shackleford will appreciate 3

weeks to recuperate and then i hope he runs in The Belmont.

Shackleford's owners left Pimlico with the $600,000 The Preakness win brought, another $550,000 for a bonus for a previous Shackleford win and then whatever portion of $200,000 that Paddy O'Prado earned for winning The Dixie Stakes. Not a bad day at the track for The Owners of both Shackleford and Paddy O'Prado, for sure Romans, and the jockeys. Romans must feel very gratified.

Thanks Steve, will be interesting to see who is going to sign up for The Belmont.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

IOWay — Sun, 22 May 2011 02:33:49 GMT

As I predicted, Sway Away was a joke. Such a shame that he missed the Derby. Too bad for racing that Animal Kingdom is no longer alive for the TC but congratulations to the Shackleford connections.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Paula Higgins — Sun, 22 May 2011 00:42:53 GMT

Well, didn't expect Shackleford to win. Animal Kingdom did very well but had too much to do at the end. Makes one appreciate deep closers like Zenyatta all the more. He is a very good horse regardless. Astrology ran a very respectable race as well. Mucho Macho man was a surprise because he wasn't in the top 4. Donna noted he had lost weight and she didn't think that was a good sign. I guess it wasn't.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Slew — Sun, 22 May 2011 00:05:57 GMT

Oh fickle fudgesicles! Another Triple Crown crumbles before my eyes, and my bucket list remains shy of that ultimate prize. Dangnabbit!

Shackleford...AK...Astrology....butwhat a race it was!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Old Timer — Sat, 21 May 2011 22:44:57 GMT

First you and George Costanza give us a $300+ exacta at the Derby. Now you gave us the Preakness $119 exacta (boxing the Derby horses). Steve, you are the man.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

prudofrompuertorico — Sat, 21 May 2011 18:13:48 GMT

Safe trip to all,I am rooting for my fellow countryman, JOHN VELAZQUEZ In Puerto Rico we are wishing for a triple crown.Mr. Haskin comments about bouncing back is our hope. Thanks for your column as always, excellent!!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Swale1984 — Sat, 21 May 2011 13:34:12 GMT

Splits of 12, interesting analysis. I get the feeling that Animal Kingdom has some tactical speed, and I look for him to sit off the pace, no worse than 7th or 8th. He ran there for a bit in the Derby and came out no worse for it. I also see a stretch battle for the ages with MMM, but I see AK holding on for the win. If he does win, I think the biggest threat to a crown is Master of Hounds in the Belmont.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Wabstat — Sat, 21 May 2011 11:46:15 GMT

Big races call for big opinions. Four turf/synthetic horses won on the main track at CD on derby day, including Animal Kingdom. I'm taking a stand that the Derby winner will not hit the board at Pimlico. Mucho Macho Man and Sway Away sit behind the fast pace and are the players in the stretch run.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Coldfacts — Sat, 21 May 2011 11:41:31 GMT

The last time the most powerful force in Kentucky Derby history was kept off the board was 1999. There were only two starters from the Raise A Native sire line in the 2011 Derby. One was Master of Hound who under a poorly judged ride was a close 5th thus breaking an 11 years sequence of top four finishers for the RAN sire line. The Preakness field contains four starter from the RAN sire line. The RAN sire line has produced 7 of the last 10 Preakness winners and there is no reason it cannot go 8 of eleven. Who are the starters from this sire line? Norman Asbjornson, Sway Away, Dance City and Concealed Identity. The most accomplished of the quartet is Dance City who is also the least experienced with only 4 starts. He is the colt I like to win the Preakness.

It is rare for me to be selecting a horse in a TC race trained by Mr. Pletcher. His record in TC races has forced me to regard him as dismal Todd. He has never won the Preakness as most of his derby starters are rarely wheeled back in 2 weeks. Super Saver being an exception and he bit the dust. If Mr. Pletcher’s record in the TC series of races is dismal, that of Mr. Dominguez is worst. While Todd has won the Derby and Belmont, Ramon is still on zero in the series. So why would I be focused on a lightly raced May foal against such a strong field? The simple answer is I love May foals and his top end speed and bottom end stamina are extremely appealing. He is expected to be forwardly placed possibly just off the lead pack that should include Shackleford, Flashpoint, Concealed Identity and Mr. Commons. Both the sires of his first and second dams (Pleasant Colony/Northern Dancer) won the Derby and Preakness and were 3rd in the Belmont. He therefore should have far more bottom end stamina which should allow him to run by the leaders from his expected striking position close to the pace. With this colt’s tactical speed, I foresee Mr. Dominguez with a ton of horse tracking the leaders and unleashing him at a time of his choosing. I do not foresee the 2011 Preakness being won from well off the pace. The horses that will be upfront are not a bunch of cheap speed pace setters. I expect the pace will be far more honest than the ridiculous 48, 1:13 of the derby.

A victory by Dance City will be difficult based on all the negatives. His trainer amidst all his achievements has never won the Preakness. His rider has never won a TC race. The most telling negative is the fact that of 34 broodmares that have produced the winners of 45 TC races for the RAN sire line, none were sired by a stallion from the Ribot line. Dance City dam sire Pleasant Colony is from the Ribot line. History was made in the Derby and I see no reason why it cannot be made in the Preakness.

Both Mr. Motion and Mr. Pletcher lost their #1 derby prospects. Mr. Motion won the Derby and I think it's Mr. Pletcher’s turn.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Lexington Bloodstock — Sat, 21 May 2011 04:01:59 GMT

Ragozin hocus pocus aside, the three Derby horses will be there again. Mucho Macho Man is yet to turn three years old and will only improve. His jockey made premature move in the Derby and this good horse came back to be third, on his own. He should wear down the tough and excellent Shackleford who will have the lead at some point after the half. Dialed In may be third if the pace is suicidal as he used the Derby as a prep for this race. He will have to be as good as Zito says he is to win it. Maybe. Animal Kingdom? Another time, maybe.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

vapaul67 — Sat, 21 May 2011 02:48:13 GMT

According to TRAKUS MMM ran approx 100 feet less in the Derby than A.K. and still got beat 3 lengths to a horse making his debut on dirt and did not have a favorable pace setup while MMM had everything set up perfectly for him, and now people honestly believe this horse can make all that up in 2 weeks where he is less certain to have a good trip and the pace should set it up for DI, AK and even Sway Away. But hey, I hope all of you throw your cash at money burners Shack and MMM b/c I won't be on them that's for sure. Mainly hoping for a good race without incident, regardless who wins.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

PomDeTerre — Sat, 21 May 2011 01:53:34 GMT

guess you'll be tearing up a bunch a tix tomorrow CIDAR CHARLIE A?K?A KY VET

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Alex'sBigFan — Sat, 21 May 2011 01:29:39 GMT

I don't feel all that confusion of the Derby this time. It seems a clearer picture. I pick Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Dialed In, in that order. We are on the TC trail with Steve and all I know is that I really don't want to see 3 different winners of the 3 races again. The sport needs stars and I want that TC winner badly. Wouldn't it be great to have an equine athlete all over the media.

Move over Jeter!!! Motion threw out the pitch at the Yankee game the other night, cool.

Good luck Johnny V & Animal Kingdom, bring it on home to New York!!!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

El Kabong — Sat, 21 May 2011 01:05:16 GMT

charliecigar

very nice. I can't stop laughing.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

skyfire — Sat, 21 May 2011 00:49:04 GMT

Sorry, it felt like you picked ALL - I think MMM will win, with Astrology second.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

calico cat — Fri, 20 May 2011 23:48:21 GMT

Splits of 12,

Wow! That was exciting!!! Almost as good as a real race. :) However, Kingdom wins the Preakness and goes on to Belmont with the TC on the line.

GO ANIMAL KINGDOM!!!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

PomDeTerre — Fri, 20 May 2011 23:01:05 GMT

Call me overly cautious, but I disagree with AK shipping in Saturday. It's a minimum 90 minutes on van with no traffic (right) and no tranq, obviously. And that is at BEST. At worst- a flat tire, an accident, traffic, bad weather- this could be a disaster, possibly with an unsettled, washed out or a no show Derby winner at the gates. I realize AK benifitted from his Fairhill stay, but this is cutting corners way too close imo. I'd want my horse at the track at least a day or 2, settled in and familiar with his surroundings; I hope this isn't a huge error in judgement.

This colt, Nehro, MMM and Shack owe me absolutely nothing after the Derby; But I would like to see another TC winner, & I think AK is the real deal. I really hope they made the right call on shipping. I hope the racing gods are on that van on Saturday.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

TJLuvsTizs — Fri, 20 May 2011 22:34:08 GMT

I agree that the derby horses coming back should be very tough to handle. You can't fault Astrology for his efforts, as he has finished on the board in every single race. However, I don't think he is good enough to win or compete for the tote board.

I get the feeling this could be a chalky race like it was in '07 with Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Aside from last year, the Derby winner usually competes for the top two spots. I am very confident that boxing AK and MMM is the way to go, and use the other derby runners under those top two in the trifecta.

Can't wait for tomorrow!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Splits of 12 — Fri, 20 May 2011 21:57:06 GMT

Here's how I see the race breaking down. Flashpoint gets the lead with Shackleford collaring him in second. Astrology breaks sharp from the rail and sits a length off the speed in third. Mucho Mach Man, Norman Abjorson, Midnite Interlude, Dance City and Mr.Commons sit 3-5 lengths off the leaders rounding the first turn. In the next flight it should be Sway Away, Animal Kingdom, Concealed Identity, and Isn't He Perfect, with Dialed In and King Congie in last. As they hit the backstretch Shackleford decides h's had enough of Flash and grabs the lead and quickly disposes of him. As Flash drops back MI and Mr. Commons come up to pressure Shack while he relaxes to a two length lead. As they leave the back-stretch those two run out of gas and MMM advances into the three path. Next up comes Dance City, while Animal Kingdom begins his rally. The others are waiting patiently as Shackleford rounds the far turn and opens up another length as they straighten out for home. Then in one fell swoop Animal Kingdom goes four-wide and inhales Shack who starts to flatten. As they hit the 1/8 th pole, MMM and Sway Away make a move at AK he starts to feel the pressure. Dialed In and King Congie come with their rallies as the others start to sputter. MMM inches closer and Sway Away fights on gamely. With 200 yards to go AK and MMM battle on and Sway Away digs in but can't go with the Top 2. As the fight it out MMM gets his head down on the final jump to defeat AK. Sway Away holds off King Congie who beats out Dialed In to fill out the Superfecta. 1. MMM 2. Animal Kingdom 3. Sway Away 4. King Congie 5. Dialed In.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Mucho Confusion

Ascot_Doll_wins — Fri, 20 May 2011 21:50:49 GMT

Afleet Alex is one of my all-time favorites and his Prekness win in 2004 the most dramatic that I have seen. Sway away is quite an intriguing horse and I have heard that he is difficult to ride.

I like Astrology's pedigree quite well and would not be surprised either to see him win. That being said (and since betting is not available anymore where I live) I will be rooting for Animal Kingdom because he looks strikingly similar to my rescued thoroughbred ex-racer Ascot Doll.

Thank you for a brilliant analysis.