Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Karen in Texas — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 21:01:34 GMT

Slew---Yes, Animal Kingdom had a most unfortunate trip and Stay Thirsty certainly validated his entry with a surprisingly good showing. Ruler On Ice? No, you never know what's going to happen...so it's entirely possible the Cowboys may make it to/through the play-offs, if the Mavs could do what they did last night!

Rachel O.---While it is a miracle that Afleet Alex stayed on his feet in the 2005 Preakness and won, that was toward the end of a mile and 3/16 race on a dry track. If I remember correctly, Jeremy Rose did not lose either iron. Animal Kingdom clipped/stumbled at the beginning of a mile and 1/2 race in the slop, and Velazquez lost an iron and could not "ride" without it until it was regained into or past the first turn. AK still managed to make a decent run, but there was too much to do. Have you read Barry Irwin's remarks on Brisnet? I'm sincerely hoping AK came out of the race all right and with no latent injuries. I believe Saturday was his first time not to be in the money, or actually not to be first or second in a race.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Rachel O — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 19:22:43 GMT

Well, Steve, a great article but you didn't mention Ruler On Ice at all as a possibility. He's quite a character, and as energetic today as he was yesterday. Did he ever wear his garlands in the winner's circle or did he say "nuts!" to that? We didn't see the outcome on TV because of the zillions of commercials. I have a feeling we'll see a lot of him later on this year.

I can't help but remember Afleet Alex's triumph in the Preakness in spite of being knocked so hard and stumbling almost to his knees. Jeremy Rose had to hang on for dear life. I don't know why Johnny Velasquez "knew" AK had lost after he'd clipped heels.

Then there's Zenyatta's Breeder's Cup performance last year. She reacted to the dirt in the face just the way Animal Kingdom did in the Preakness, and made up as much or more ground than he did, losing by inches.

I don't understand why AK ended up so far back in the Belmont, unless he was just tired.

I had a hunch that a longshot would win. Interesting that all the horses than ran in all three races ended up behind the ones winning the money. Either they just don't make 'em like they used to or they are not training and racing sufficiently. Unless something changes I don't think we'll ever see another TC winner.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 18:33:47 GMT

It was the same all day, as it usually is at Belmont when it is wet; you have to be on or within a length or two of the lead to have any chance of winning. The results of yesterday's dirt races tell you nothing about the quality of the winners, only their running style.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Rachel NH — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 18:05:59 GMT

What's with the voice over of the race? Doesn't even mention AK going to his knees, etc?

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 15:55:38 GMT

Time for the new Derby Dozen and our first Triple Crown winner in a zillion years in 2012 !!!! Look for Hard Spun's. Did you see Artest, 6-10-11 3rd BP? Looking forward to the current 3yo's proving their talent the rest of this year and the "mediocre group" label being debunked again as it often is, and continuing the great ride with Haskin for the rest of this year, and for next year's Triple Crown win. Woohoo, a Triple Crown in 2012 !!!(I think it's too early to jinx it, but I may not mention it again until it's done). Whoever is going for it, PLEASE reject an interview from Bob Costas.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Slew — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 14:32:28 GMT

Here we are, a day late and a dollar short. Wouldn't you just know...poor AK...can he have had a worse trip? And the 2nd stringer who no one discussed before the Belmont...or even after..Stay Thirsty certainly had the class to go 12f, and I'm really proud of him. I think he's going to impact Saratoga with flair this summer, and I can't wait. I mean...didn't Bernardini savage the top summer races? Sonny boy may do the same. Ruler On Ice???? 24-1???? On any given Saturday, you just never know what's really going to happen no matter how prepared you think you might be. (Does this mean the Cowboys may finally go to the play-offs? Too much to hope for!)

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

iceknight — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 04:42:00 GMT

Thanks to all the super confident bettors betting on AK and Nehro. Of course I lost some money on AK, Nehro, More money on MuchoMacho & Monzon - but I made back some in 2-3 exotic spread. My big wins came in accurately identifying Mission Approved as a top contender in one of the earlier stakes. Race replays+time are crucial for a serious bettor. Anyways, I noticed that close to $9 million was on the exotics for Belmont and close to $7.9 million on the WPS pool. WOW! I am staggered. (started wagering this preakness- go astrology! All 8 starts in the money!)

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Paula Higgins — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 23:04:40 GMT

Congratulations to Ruler On Ice and his connections and to Mike Repole's horse Stay Thirsty. Great race by both of them. I think Animal Kingdom's early difficulties took him out of the race early on. But truthfully, I don't see him getting it even without clipping heels early on and the mud. Shackleford ran well but he wasn't going to get it either. He didn't seem to mind the mud.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

APBarZentariat — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 20:00:13 GMT

I'm with Pedigree Ann & Gardner. I personally think the only reason O'Brien is sending MOH over here is to dodge Frankel.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Gardner — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 17:46:59 GMT

I agree with Pedigree Ann. Do not understand the fascination with Master of Hounds and for all the same reasons. And to add to what she said, MoH has got to be getting jet lagged so the "fresh" horse angle is highly questionable.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

20onthenose — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 17:17:37 GMT

sometimes, ya gotta take what the track gives you. I woke up this a.m. with the full intention of betting Animal Kingdom on top, but then got a funny feeling that the Belmont will have a big surprise. So I am putting AK on the bottom of exotics and looking for that plodder who is going to surprise everyone finishing in the top 4. Went with Kevin Plank's Monzon, gonna put my Under Armour on and hope the 40-1 shot makes the top 4. Wish me luck

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 15:19:26 GMT

I have to say I don't get the fascination with Master of Hounds. What has he done? He's won a maiden race and run third in a subpar G1 2yo race to Casamento (10 in the 1000 Guineas and 9th in the French Derby) and Seville (who trailed home 10th in the real Derby). He was run down in the stretch by a filly at 9.5f in Dubai when he had a clear lead. O'Brien knows he isn't all that good and is hoping to get lucky. He wouldn't subject his better 3yos to this treatment, flying back and forth (with other runners with better shots in their races, by the way). And he isn't even guaranteed to stay 12f.

Sure, Kingmambo has sired stayers, but he has also sired specialist sprinters and milers. MOH's dam won races at 6f and 7f at 2, but tried in classic races at 3, she never hit the board; her best finish was a 4th in the French Guineas; rather one-paced in longer races. In her one race in the US, she trailed in 11th of 12 in Hollywood Park's American Oaks. One half-brother was a multiple G3 winning sprinter, another a low (and I mean LOW) level stayer (and both of these were by the same sire!). The genetic possibilities are all over the block for MoH and 9f horse is just as likely as 12f horse.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 14:39:52 GMT

tbpartner43, Astrology stretched his pedigree as far as it will go in the Preakness. He may be by A.P. Indy, but he is also a half-sibling to speed-burners Lunarpal, Lunargal, and Lunarlady. His owners got a classic placing for the stallion ads in the only classic he had a shot of hitting the board in. They know he had no shot at 12f.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

surendra — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 11:37:06 GMT

MMM is a good value bet @ 10 to 1.

For Trifecta I like AK - NEHRO- MMM

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

tbpartner43 — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 11:13:57 GMT

Can someone tell me what happened to Astrology? I missed any announcement if there was one. I sure expected to see him in this race.

May this be a safe race for all.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

chester — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 11:12:19 GMT

Good luck to everyone and especially the horses and jockeys.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

chester — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 11:11:22 GMT

Great column, a real crap shoot. I like animal kingdom but not at 2/1. I still think shackleford is the horse to beat but lot of talk about master of hounds.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

7 1/2 Furlongs — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 04:18:48 GMT

Mr. Haskin -

With rain and a wet track forecast for Belmont 143, I'm siding with Santiva. I liked the son of Giant's Causeway back in January and see no reason to abandon ship in June.

My notes on off-track pedigrees indicate Santiva will appreciate a wet surface as well as any of the other eleven Belmont contestants. I think it's his turn to run a biggie.

On a dry, fast track, Animal Kingdon and Nehro look pretty tough. Can't say how either will perform on wet surface. These three are my trifecta, unscrambled.

My prediction for the final time is 2:29.65. Best of luck with your selections.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Alex'sBigFan — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 02:26:03 GMT

Happy Belmont everyone! It's almost here, not even 24 hours away now. I like AK, Nehro, and Shack. Maybe with combos of Brilliant Speed and Santiva. I can't see Master of Hounds taking it all but if he does then more power to him. Shack looks so fit in the video that it would not surprise me at all if he is better than we think and goes the whole thing once again. I did not see any rain at all by me in NJ and the intense heat has gone. Hopefully tomorrow will follow suit. I noticed that 5 of the Belmont starters were actually in Steve's original TC article this January 5th, where he listed about 50 possibles for the TC route. The 5 that made it to the Belmont are Stay Thirsty, Monzon, Santiva, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford!!!

That's pretty good Steve!

Good luck betting everyone, may the horses all come home safely.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Bigtex — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 02:23:14 GMT

ANIMAL KINGDOM will do as he always does, win or place. I'm with you Steve, he's a win ticket.

NEHRO's Derby finish has me concerned about him, however, the pace here won't any quicker than the Derby, and he has tremendous turn of foot.

SHACKLEFORD won't hold off AK in this race.

MUCHO MACHO MAN can't run with AK when the pedal's down.

The Ex & TRI Box will come down to ANIMAL KINGDOM, MASTER OF HOUNDS, SANTIVA, AND NEHRO. Alternate to add to the Tri Box is SHACKLEFORD.

But how about this, Derby finish for the Superfecta!

NEHRO

MMM

SHACKLEFORD

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

Matt Helm — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:58:02 GMT

Steve absolutely right Ak and Nehro must be included in all the exotics I love BS.MOH,Santiva,or ST to upset the apple cart in the big apple.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

deloulcrespo — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:01:05 GMT

Nice work Steve, I agree with you, about animal Kingdom and Nehro as the top two, especially with Nehro who got the nedeed rest out of the Preakness.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

JamesRockford — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 00:37:53 GMT

"STEVE AK will destroy feild"

THAT is a LAUGHABLE statement. You thro all your money on AK at 2/1 and I will LAUGH at you when I walk to the window and cash my $1200 ticket on Nehro at 5/1 or my $800 ticket on Master of Hounds at 8/1 or 9/1.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

nickie — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 00:30:33 GMT

Steve, the runners I am including will be Santiva,Master of Hounds and MMM...I will try and build around these 3, and although I understand track can change from day to day, it looked awfully deep[with moisture hopefully not cuppy]...I can hear the wags allready when the winners time is aroumd 2:28...good luck to all!

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: Look to the Exotics

5starday — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 23:03:47 GMT

NEHRO would love a muddy track, afleet and AP INDY in his pedigree.