Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Medlocke — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 20:30:19 GMT

The BC Classic is going to get some much needed appeal. Just be patient until So You Think finishes up with his trip to Longchamp, and comes back to Ireland with the Prix De l' Arc De Triomphe trophy. Then you'll see Aidan O'Brien's eyes start lighting at the prospect of sending this horse to Churchill Downs to try and complete the Arc/BC Classic double. Even on conventional dirt, So You Think will gallop the American horses in the Classic off their feet at 1-1/4. They just won't have an answer for him, IMO.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

tcc — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 00:41:13 GMT

Steve:

Was just reading this.

The Goodwood will not feature Twirling Candy, who was second in the Pacific Classic. Hampered by a bruised foot in early September, Twirling Candy will be trained toward the BC Classic or BC Dirt Mile. Trained by John Sadler, Twirling Candy had his first workout since late August on Sunday at Santa Anita, going a half-mile in 47.40.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Bill Two — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 14:51:35 GMT

I may be guilty of hyperbole in my previous post where I said that THAS should be one to ten, but the point is these weights seem unfair. Unless ROI is better than I think, he's up against it spotting that much weight to that field. Rattlesnake Bridge is an improving colt who apparently is sitting on a big race, although, like THAS he hasn't won a big one like ROI has. The thing that makes me reconsider about THAS is what Richard Migliore said recently on HRTV - he said that THAS looks great when everything goes his way, but when it doesn't he's not so good. I really respect his opinion. Still, I have the feeling that this colt has grown up and will produce a really good effort tomorrow.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

NASCAR PRO — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:56:29 GMT

Good comment about the 114 lbs that THAS will go to post with,this is the lowest impost of his carrer.This race is a Derby what are the conditions that allow a ten pound difference between ROI and THAS.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

txhorsefan — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:59:12 GMT

Excellent points, Steve, in all regards. The Classic could be shaping up to be a more interesting race than I first thought if some of those scenarios you mention do come up. Thanks for pointing out so many interesting ideas to ponder and thanks to everyone else for their thoughts as well. Maybe it isn't going to be as humdrum as I had been thinking - lol!

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Old Timer — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 20:40:32 GMT

Steve,

Your comments on Twirling Candy remind me of old Black Tie Affair. Back in 1991 he also did not seem like a horse for the mile and a quarter but he took them all the way home.

I also agree with Gio Ponti. What the hey, why not?

Lastly, there is something about that Super Derby. It seems like the perfect springboard to BCC. Maybe it is because I remember cashing some nice tickets when Tiznow got that Super Derby-BCC double. Plus, you have to respect Baffert. I definitely lean to the three year olds this year. Prayer for Relief or Stay Thirsty.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Linda in Texas — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 16:57:57 GMT

Alex'sBigFan - you know that when i posted about Winter's and Turallure's wins that i failed to mention Unbridled Humor's win. I had written down the win place and show on her race and watched it but it was 2 pages over on my notes and i missed it. But there were also 2 other grays who won on Saturday. It was a winning Gray day for sure. And we finally got a bucket of rain here in my Texas town speaking of gray days,but we need a lot more. Rain perked up the leaves a little.

But Winter Memories' race still makes me skip a breath just thinking about her blast from last. My word, and makes me lightheaded just thinking about her.

She reminds me of Skippy a lot. She has a long neck and holds her head so high it draws your attention to her. She is just plain gorgeous when she runs.

Glad you made it home ABF. And though i love Mo i am going to have to stay with Stay Thirsty now. He has earned respect, so if they run together, i will be for ST. I hope they do not run in the same race and stated that.

And i want to say just a little somethin' somethin' to all the wonderful people who post their remarks and knowledge and the mixtures of opinions that flow forth. I love them all, good, bad and wrong. I know i am getting there in the Racing Department when i can form my opinion and am backed up by the pros when they state their posts. And you pros all know who you are.

Thank you Steve, and I was not a teenager in 1969. I was 29 and holding!:)

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Bill Two — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 13:09:46 GMT

Jersey Boy, you have a good point. To assign To Honor and Serve a feather for the PA Derby is a farce. Judging from the way he ran the other day he will be one to ten and should be.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

GoldenBroom — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 12:49:15 GMT

I think these next 2 weeks should be telling if we have a favorite (or at least who are the strongest 2 - 3 horses per division are). Some horses get tired the end of year, others perk up in the cool weather. With some good ones coming off the injured list too, I think it will be an exciting 5 1/2 weeks (that's all it is til the Breeders Cup weekend).

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 22:49:20 GMT

Mary in VT

You guys must have been nutty as a fruit cake and going bonkers while watching the World Series in The Cuckoo's Nest when watching Zenyatta but I too was cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs watching Winter Memories in her last race. "No way Jose. You have got to be bloody kidding me Maria. Did she just do what I think I saw? Mac?"

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Will — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 22:24:14 GMT

Here's hoping you've set Gio Ponti's connections to again considering entry in the BC Classic. Like your thinking concerning GP, Steve. Cannot find a chink in the line of argument. To summarize your bent of mind: 7 seconds in Grade 1s in the past two years is a good indication Gio Ponti needs a different path back to the Grade 1 winner circle. He has not shown the explosive turn of foot late in his career and when sharp that will be needed to beat Goldikova and other Europeans in the BC Mile. The Turf Classic is a distance too far. Gio Ponti is bred for dirt (and should have been making well thought out dirt appearances throughout his career). The Churchill Downs dirt course has proved a kind surface to grass horses - think Animal Kingdom and Pool Play. It's worth the gamble to see if Gio Ponti can do something bold and historic late in his career, and it may just be that his connections missed the best of the horse's abilities and potential by staying away from a dirt surface his breeding says Gio Ponti would relish. Keep putting the bug in Clement's ear, Steve. He may yet see the light. I've been hoping since Gio Ponti failed to catch Goldikova in last year's BC Mile that Clement would think about trying the horse in a couple of Grade 1s on the dirt this year with a possible career climax in the BC Classic so that we, the racing public, might gain some sense of just how good Gio Ponti could be on the dirt. Keep up the lobbying effort, Steve, in this campaign to bring Gio Ponti back to the BC Classic. Here's hoping you stir up a groundswell of support from the racing public for this idea, producing a chorus of voices clamoring to see Gio Ponti attempt something bold and historic on the dirt in the Classic - one so loud and pervasive that Clement cannot fail to take notice. Love to see what is, as you say, admittedly far fetched come to fruition and create some expectancy and excitement in the racing world.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Bill Two — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 21:37:48 GMT

The thing with Winter Memories is that she was able to close like that and blow by other closers - including the impressive Hungry Island - to win this race. A race she had no business winning given the pace setup. She really ought to be in the Turf Mile. A filly with that kind of kick takes a back seat to nobody.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Mary in VT — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 17:36:46 GMT

My husband and I go cuckoo for cocoas puffs over the late kick on Winter Memories. What a class filly she is. We think she is the most exciting horse running in this country right now. LoOoOove the way she uses her pelvis so that her croup seems to slant distinctly upward like a cat at one point in every stride when they let her go. Yowza. Have watched it in slow mo repeatedly. She is doing something the rest of them aren't doin'.

Don't think I have ever seen her get a good trip which is very frustrating. Thank heavens she will rate and settle and relax, and is capable of firing again if her jock has to check hard.

I was sorry to hear that her people are going to call it a year after that race at Keeneland that they are pointing to. No BC??? Could she not give Goldikova a run for her money, especially shortening up to a mile?

Still very much enjoy following every little move that Blind Luck and Havre de Grace make. They are two good ones that help to define each other.

Deep respect for Gio Ponti. Stay Thirsty coming into his own now. Want to see Acclamation in the Classic mix.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Ivan — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 16:10:39 GMT

Steve,

Of all the horses you mentioned, I think the horses with the most upside is Prayer for Relief. I was extremely impressed with his run in the Super Derby. He found another gear in the stretch after setting up pretty salty fractions. Is one to keep an eye on.

Uncle Mo has the talent to be a major player in the Classic, I still have some doubts about waht kind of foundation he will have going a mile and a quarter for the first time, and after going thru a very rare and dangerous illness. I would prefer him to go to the Pennsylvannia Derby to have a more fit horse going to the Classic.

Neither Gio Ponti or Twirling Candy are of my liking. The first one has not been tested against Grade 1 company on dirt, while the latter has not been able to pass horses like Game On Dude and Setsuko, which have not been consistent in California. Furthermore, the jury is still out on his dirt form. I'll pass. And I'll pass also on the Euro's, although this crop is one of the weakest of the last twenty years. They can get a share.

Right now my money is on Tizway, if he runs as I expect him in the JCGC. HDG and BL are contenders if they go for the Classic. Stay Thirsty is thriving at the moment, lets see what he can do in the JCGC. Wide open, to say the least.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

JerseyBoy — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 15:54:49 GMT

Forget what I wrote about To Honor And Serve above.

The race has been reduced to a farce. He has been assigned 114 pounds. What a joke!

When will they start assigning weights under weight-for-age terms in all big money races? The purse here is a million dollars.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

plodderman — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 13:52:26 GMT

GIANT OAK. Only needs a legitimate pace to run the field over. Do some handicapping guys and stop looking at previous results - without reading between the lines.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

The Deacon — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 05:45:45 GMT

You can make a case for about every horse that may or may not run in the classic. Certainly wouldn't disagree with your assessment of Gio Ponti or Twirling Candy. This years crop of 3 year olds is down and the older division is not too exciting execept for Blind Luck and Harve de Grace. These 2 mares have saved the year for me. Picking a winner is a crap shoot at best.

West coast horses haven't fared well at Churchill Downs in many a year. With the possibility of cold weather I don't see it changing this year. Other then Acclamation, who probably won't run in the classic I don't see any contenders coming from the west. Uncle Mo loves the track but can he get the distance, that is the question. Especially off of 1 race back, which he so desperately needed.

Stay Thirsty didn't fire in the Derby, which may tell us that he doesn't like the track. The only logical choice if I were picking today would be Tizway.

It would make a nice story if Gio Ponti wins but the connections may not even run him.

I wouldn't rule out Shackleford, he seems to like the track and the 10 furlongs isn't a problem. He has been resting and should come into the race in fine form.

Game on Dude is a hard hitter but can he beat the east coast runners.

So many questions and so few answers. Certainly no standouts, it wouldn't surprise me if the favorite went off at 5-1.

It's asking a lot of So You Think to run in the Arc and then come over here and be competitive. The Euros know that we have a weak crop this year so they may send the whole calvary. Nevertheless, the classic should make for a great betting race. Good luck to all.........

You look good Steve, you even look like you lost some weight.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 05:25:59 GMT

Linda in Texas,

When my "darling" husband returns from this lengthy vacation in Morocco I will email the photos to Steve of the gray and horses I got to walk and maybe Steve can be so kind as to forward them for you to enjoy.

I watched the ponies at Los Al in Ca. this Saturday evening. They were so cute. All the gate attendants had pink shirts on and the horses had pink wraps on their legs. My white horse was working and it was awesome looking. What a cool horse, I have got to know it's name.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

dinney23 — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 03:52:34 GMT

100% could not agree more about Twirling Candy!!! MY PICK!

Cris, Awesome Gem is an iron horse. It's umbelievable what he has accomplished and how hard he tries every time. I have total respect for him and everything he has done and I route for him every time. He is a champion. With that being said, i don't think he is not up to facing this group. In his prime maybe, but he is running where he should be: in secondteer GR.1 races.

Bornahorsemen, Acclamation would not be able to go to the front and hold on like he did in the classic. With the dirt and much more speed which should develop in this race, I don't think it sets up for him. I want to see him on his natural surface, the turf, and try and take on the Europeans!

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Paula Higgins — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 03:44:05 GMT

I would love to see boh Mo and Stay Thirsty in the BCC. I am in Mo's corner all the way, even over the girls. He has had a tough year and to see him come back in this fashion would gladden my heart. There are a alot of horses to love out there. ITA Rachel in NH.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 02:38:22 GMT

So You Think it Tizway too early to Flat Out pick a BCC winner? Man I am getting mighty Thirsty from eating all of this Twirling Candy and with a little Blind Luck and some divine intervention from Grace, and with 2 bridges to cross (Gio Ponti & Rattlesnake) we might be looking at our BCC champ, Mo!!!

Sorry couldn't resist combining the names again! Nice article Steve, I love your idea of Gio Ponti going in the BCC. I like him but I agree with Paula, of the two my heart is with Mo as well. It is tough choosing between Havre and Mo but my heart belongs to Mo.

I too so wish Animal Kingdom could be in the BCC, another one robbed of his chances by that Belmont mishap that I'm still miffed about.

I credited Awesome Gem and his owners blogs ago for continually running him all these years. He's been at it a LONG time!!!!! He deserves to be in it too, after all he did run the 2007 BCC with to quote Dr. D. "Rachel's husband!!!!!"

Mo and Thirsty coming down the stretch in the BCC - Mo goes, "You go Thirsty." Thirsty replies, "No man you always go first." Mo, "No Thirsty, you go." Thirsty, "I can't man this one is yours." And so on the the wire..............!

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Matthew W — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:49:22 GMT

Steve, you are, as usual, correct in your identifying Twirling Candy as the Classic horse to beat--his most recent race was, perhaps, the most impressive race run in US this year! He came home like a real racehorse--and that was some kinda animal holding him off--no, he prefers a mile over 1 1/4--but so did Ack Ack, Ancient Title, Precisionist, Swaps, Dr Fager, Native Diver--horses who, when they put it all together, were able to dominate at 1 1/4--I have laid off Twirlybird, and his 8-5 odds---now he's 12-1 and that's a whole thing alltogether! I'll take some of that, in face a whole lotta that 12-1! In fact, when you throw in that Tizway and Harve De Grace would probably prefer shorter than 1 1/4, all of the sudden Twirlybird's latest, a gut-wrenching duel with Acclamation, who was coming off his Eddie Read Tour de Force (and the Eddie Read is a top-class race) his latest race looks very good compared to these--I have him as the horse to beat, and I'd love to see Jerry try the Classic with Blind Luck--a full field would be advantageous for a closer, she would get the pace that she rarely gets in those smaller fields--there would be a story within a story with the fillies--and yes, we are spoiled on fillies, with Azeri, Rags To Riches, Rachel Alexandra, Big Z and now possibly a one-two finish? That's unlikely, as Tizway/Twirling Candy are gonna be real tough to beat, and while very good I am not confusing those two fillies with Zenyatta, or for that matter, with Rags To Riches--it's very rare for a filly to beat the top males at 1 1/4--very rare indeed! They would be bad bets, especially Harve De Grace--I just cannot see her moving with Tizway/Twirybird--then holding them all at bay--I do not see that kind of filly, if they wanna try be my guest, I'll toss Gracey completely and maybe include Blind Luck based on her love of the track/running style, which should benefit her/get her a piece, at least....Think Rosario needs to stay up on Twirlybird--think he should stay up on Zazu--think Zazu will win the Ladies Classic, and I like her over any and all comers--including the so-called super duo...also like Creative Cause in Juvy/think he'll like two turns....Ultra Blend will get a price--she has developed into a top class filly....also like Smiling Tiger in Spring--he'll fetch a price and he's all class....speaking of all class, Freaky won the Go Man Go Sunday night at Los Al, Freaky, with the all-white face, former HOY, paid 7-1 over a fast field of Quarter Horses--that's the "play a top-class horse when ya get a big price" angle--that's the Twirling Candy angle--sooner or later he's gonna blow them all away, just like ya thought he would, eventually--only he's 12-1, and this time I'm gonna have him!

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

beau — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:09:10 GMT

They would be crazy to risk something happening to Gio Ponti in the Classic. Stick to what he likes, try Goldikova again this year. She is geting older as well.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Karen in Indiana — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:01:12 GMT

P.S. I think they said Acclamation doesn't like the dirt, didn't they?

re: Countdown to the Cup: Classic Appeal

Karen in Indiana — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:00:21 GMT

Here I am - in Indiana - and if they ran a race with Acclamation, Twirling Candy, & Setsuko, I wouldn't know who to root for because I like them all. Wait - that's happened already! Love the Unusual Heats and since most of the males are gelded, Acclamation looks to be the best one to carry on that line. They are a little quirky, too.