Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

plodderman — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 18:22:59 GMT

Ranagulzion: Let's see Uncle mo beat something of merit at 2 turms before you anoint him. This Classic Field has no horse that will be remembered as a great champ and yet Mo will tire come mid stretch and prove his worth as a great one turn horse, just like Zenyatta proved she could beat the gals on synthetic, but nt the best on dirt. Do you think Zenyatta would have been 19-0 racing against boys all the time. And so goes Mo........

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

TXLonghorn — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 15:21:25 GMT

I completely agree with your assessment of Ruler on Ice's Pennsylvania Derby! In the final furlong, I distinctly remember thinking, "This is interesting..." Contrast that with my thoughts at the end of the Belmont, drenched from sitting in the rain all day: What the hell just happened? I think he's got a real chance.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

PointGivenTCL — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 00:35:43 GMT

JerseyBoy,

Timeform has a consistent record of assigning over-hyped horses ridiculously high numbers for stellar performances, as well as for favoring British-trained horses. Look at your own rankings of three-year-olds, for example. Frankel has been given a 142, and I don't doubt his impressiveness or the fact that he's the best three-year-old colt in the world, but were any of his performances this year (including this weekend's) really 10 pounds better than Danedream's performance in the Arc? Watch her last two races, then tell me she should be rated with the likes of Dream Ahead and Strong Suit. Her performance was rated lower than deserved because she was an unheralded, German-trained filly before her breakout performance.

This doesn't even take into account TimeForm's incredible bias against any horse who is not based in Europe - Americans, Japanese, Aussies. You can cite their rankings all you want, but they are clearly not an infallible or even very accurate way of determining the "best" horses in any part of the world.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Lorrie — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 01:55:01 GMT

No excuses for SYT this time. He had the run of the race. Just not enough left in the tank at the finish. Will he still come over here for the BC? A defeat in the Classic would not do his stallion prospects any good so maybe they'll keep him at home.

This is a horse who benefits from hard work and they do seem to be too soft on him. At this same time last year he ran 3 G1 races just days apart, winning 2 and 3rd in the 2 mile Melbourne Cup.

I still think he's worth putting your money on Steve. Never write off a champion.

FRANKEL, what a monster this horse is. We haven't seen the best of him yet and I hope we get to see him here one day.

Write that book Steve but don't confine yourself to Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. You have been round for, let's just say "more than a day" and I'm sure you have some great stories to tell and memories to share.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

fanofallthree — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 02:36:50 GMT

As usual, you have a way of stringing words together like no other. Thanks.

I've got my picks narrowed down to 6. LOL!

Just curious though. How much are you going to wager on So You Think?

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

oso7 — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 04:35:42 GMT

Smoking Baby,

I laughed when you mentioned Oso Parkway. I live in San Diego and every time I drive north on Hwy 5 I wish I could get one of those freeway signs for my house. Oso is actually one of my dogs, a rescued, abused terrier mix who is my all time favorite dog--and I've been blessed with a lifetime of marvelous dogs.

Slew,

I am so pleased that Mr. Haskin posted your response to Jason Shandler and his incessant need to denigrate Zenyatta and John Shirreffs. JS gave him a cold and icy response last year in an interview and it appears Shandler can't get over it. Then you throw in his neophytes such as Draynay and AAF and you have the perfect witch's brew of West Coast haters of horses and anyone associated with CA racing. At least they are worthy of a derisive laugh now and again.

Steve~I would hope you might consider writing a book on Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, two wondrous fillies who elevated the sport, much as Blind Luck and HDG have. For me, there is no finer writer on racing than you and I would cherish the opportunity of purchasing your book on them.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

KY VET — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 01:59:24 GMT

Coldcuts!!! the wack quack...there he is, blinding us with his science. Cant win because he is 6!!! No 6 yr old can win...ever!!! Cant see why mo is good...one of the best beyers ever as 2yrold.. how about a 118 beyer? nope!!! cant see it!!! tizway...nope cant see him run good...he only has best races by older horse....COLDCUTS! HOW TO YOU TYPE WEARING THAT STRAIGHTJACKET???

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Footlick — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 00:14:18 GMT

JerseyBoy- I also look at Racing Post ratings and Globeform ratings

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Slew — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 23:54:12 GMT

Jersey Boy...as I said, unlike the American Hoy which is totally subjective, "Cartier award winners are decided by POINTS EARNED IN GROUP RACES....plus the votes cast by British racing journalists and readers of the Racing Post and Daily Telegraph newspapers." As for 10f race Saturday, Nathaniel is rated at 128, while SYT at 127. But SYT is favored in the odds 9/4.

I really can't believe Snow Fairy's odds are 8/1, as is Twice Over. I expect the odds to be much lower by Saturday.

Thank you for the link.

Footlick and Racingfan: Thanks. I simply couldn't take the idiocy any longer, and Jason seems unwilling to accept any criticism.

This may, indeed, be a most historic BC if all these UK champions come. Apparently even Frankel is now considering it.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

JerseyBoy — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 20:34:29 GMT

Slew:

My tool is Timeform.

Cartier is a popularity contest. The Timeform rankings remain in effect until year end, regardless of whether a horse is active.

Below is the Timeform ranking of 3yos.

There is little contest between So You Think and the 3yos. He has to give them 5 lbs.

If you want to see the Official Ratings see the entries in the Champion Stakes on Saturday.

URL attached.

THREE YEAR OLDS

142 FRANKEL

133 DREAM AHEAD

132 DANEDREAM

131 STRONG SUIT

128p SEA MOON

128 EXCELEBRATION

horses.sportinglife.com/.../0,12495,451779,00.html

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Slew — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 17:58:08 GMT

Jersey Boy, Canford Cliffs is a miler and has been retired,and Rewilding is no longer with us. So You Think is now ranked at 138 with Frankel at 136 in the Cartier HOY race. Unlike the USA, the Cartier includes trainers and fans opinion, but also assigns points for each race.

Older horse category is still led by SYT with 138, and Goldikova 2nd with 112.

Frankel leads the 3 yr old division with his 136.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

JerseyBoy — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 16:28:33 GMT

Lorrie:

Below is the latest Timeform Ranking of the top older horses in Europe. This shows you what his current level is. He is number 6 overall.

TOP OLDER HORSES

133 CANFORD CLIFFS

132 REWILDING

131 SO YOU THINK

130+ DEACON BLUES

130 WORKFORCE

129 GOLDIKOVA

128 HOOF IT

128 TWICE OVER

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Footlick — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:33:12 GMT

Slew- Thanks for venting for us all.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Lorrie — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 12:23:42 GMT

To all the doubters who don't get why So You Think is so well thought of, go to YouTube and watch some of the great races he has won. The Cox Plate twice, once when he was only a 2yr old, (he was foaled in Nov 2006 and the Cox Plate was in Oct 2009). 3 G1's in 2009, 4 G1's in 2010 with a 3rd in the Melbourne Cup and that's just in Australia. Then wins another 4 G1's in the UK so far in 2011.

So here's a horse who's won from a mile to 10 1/2 furlongs. Show me the horse here with a record that's even close to that. If he shows up for the BC (not a certainty,) if he handles the dirt (not a problem as long as they get a jockey who's not afraid to get up near the front), we will see a true champion.

It can't be any easier for the horse to change trainers than it is for the trainer to train him as well as his previous trainer did but despite everything they've thrown at him he still gives his all every time.

I for one would love to see the likes of Frankel, So You Think and Black Caviar run in the Breeders Cup. It would make it a truly international event.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

JerseyBoy — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 11:30:33 GMT

Coldfacts:

I like your analysis, but a little correction is required.

You wrote of To Honor And Serve:

"I have no doubt he can succeed where his sire failed".

Bernardini did not fail in the Classic. He finished second to Horse of the Year Invasor.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Coldfacts — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 04:16:28 GMT

RANAGULZION

“You've always underestimated him (nothing new from you)”

I know my English is not the best but I have tried in many ways in spite of its deficiency to state that I do not dislike or try to undermine the Mighty Mo. He has been labeled great and I just cannot understand why. Both Mr. Haskins and Mr. Sandler specified that trainers would avoid him on the Derby trail and yet again I failed to see why. Secretariat was not avoided. There seem to have been some kind of insanity about this colt. Graham Motion specified that he had no desire to s tart Toby’s Corner against Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial. I was shocked when the statement was reported. He abandoned his crazy status and the rest is history. The betting public was not advised of his ailment prior to the Wood as he left the gate at either 1-5 or less. It was reported that he grabbed a quarter in the race. Subsequently reports detailed an unknown ailment. The only reason he lost the Wood was because he was ill consequently Toby’s Corner victory was undeserved. His loss to Cables Posse was due to his illness and long layoff. When will it end? Why is Uncle Mo great? Could it be his multiple track and stakes records; his widest margins of victory; his turbo charge acceleration; The fear drives into opponents. I beseech you to tell me.

“His speed figures have consistently showed that he's the best colt of his generation in America”

This is the sort of statement that misrepresents the colt. The fastest time for a mile belongs to (Uncle Mo). The fastest time for 6F belong to (The Factor). The fastest time 9F belongs to ( To Honor and Server) The fasts time 10F belongs to (Animal kingdom) How can you justify the above?

Uncle Mo will not win at 10F against the top G1 horses. He is not a genuine router and I am prepared to eat a healthy portion of crow for my position .

TIZWAY:

At age six he will not win the BCC as no 6YO has ever won the race. Top rated horses like Pleasantly Perfect, Cigar and Zenyatta all failed to win the great race as 6YOs. Should I assume that Tizway is better than the aforementioned champions? He is a miler at best and will not beat the 3&4YOs at 10F.

THS is the horse to beat. His stable companion DROSSELMEYER will have no trouble with the trip and will be returning to the track where he recorded his first victory.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Fuzzy Corgi — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 02:56:31 GMT

Slew - Great post! I got tired of Jason's constant Zen-bashing (CA bashing too) in the middle of last year. The blog became too tough for me to bear when crazy comparisons were made like... "synthetc surfaces in CA are 'plastic' but anywhere else in the country they are a legitimate racing surface" or "Zenyatta was a complete disgrace in the Classic in 2010". I thought it was a very thrilling race and any horse that finishes only a head back to a nice horse such as Blame has no reason to be called a disgrace. I could go on but what's the point? I have never read his blog since, and never will again.

This has been an extremely tough year for consistency with the horses. Illness and injuries seem to have been a real plague in 2011. Horses will run a stunning race then in their next start they are distanced by the rest of the field and... leaving the fans, handicappers, and often the trainers scratching their heads. Havre de Grace is probably the most consistent runner from NA to be going to the Breeders' Cup this year. I would have also added Acclamation to the list but he is on the sidelines the remainder of the year. Bummer. Gio Ponti never disgraces himself but he's been a bridesmaid most of this year.

Of course, any horse who can string together more than 2 wins back to back is a welcome sight this year. I will still completely enjoy two full days of World Class Breeders' Cup racing and my traditional race day chinese take out!

P.S. He may not be Breeders' Cup material but Rapid Redux is so exciting to follow!

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Racingfan — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 01:13:28 GMT

Well said Slew! I have nearly stopped reading his blogs because all he does is bash Zenyatta at every opportunity. Thank goodness we have Mr Haskin's blog - the best writer around and someone who really knows his stuff!!!

FYI to ZENYATTA AND RACHEL fans ---a book called Horse Racing Divas just came out that is about them and 10 other famous females. It's available thru Exclusively Equine...I already ordered mine.

P.S. Is that why you have been declining to write a Zenyatta book Steve? If so, you can still do it. A whole book about her and written by you would be the BEST!

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

JP — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 00:37:50 GMT

I agree with Steve with putting a Euro on top. The American horses are full of questions and this is the weakest Classic field since Saint Liam a while back. Havre De Grace might be able to get a mile and a quarter but she has already proven she cant get it before Blind Luck gets there so I am not sold. Im going with Game on Dude, no valid reason, just eliminating the rest.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Slew — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 23:49:55 GMT

Thank you, Steve. I needed to release that pent up frustration.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

NASCAR PRO — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 23:30:22 GMT

I dont think their are any dominant horses entered for this years classic as of today from what I know.I hope to see at least a 12 horse field, and then It might become an interesting betting race,in the exotic pool, especially because the favorite should be an entry(everyone on this board should know this entry.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Ranagulzion — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 18:43:54 GMT

Coldfacts,

I should point out to you the reason why your conclusions about Tizway and Uncle Mo are faulty:

1) Tizway is a very fast horse with a high cruising speed and stamina inherited from his sire, two-time BCC winner Tiznow.

2) His authoritative victory in the Whitney should dispel all doubts about his stamina because he was drawing off from Flat Out at the end.

3) The Saratoga track was playing deep and slow, a cold fact that you've chosen to ignore

4) Tizway does extremely well coming off the layoff and is really thriving right now and primed to produce a career best effort. Remember that I warned you.

Regarding Uncle Mo:

1) You've always underestimated him (nothing new from you)

2) His Wood Memorial run is a toss out performance due to ill-health and should not be held against him.

3) His speed figures have consistently showed that he's the best colt of his generation in America.

4) He has tactical speed, is very rateable and explosive when roused by Johnny V (so watch out my friend)

5) He has stamina influences in his female family to see out the ten furlongs in top competition.

I'm looking forward to the results on the track once again Pal. Enjoy.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Slew — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 18:00:38 GMT

oso7: I don't think Twirling Candy is headed to the Classic. His connections seem to feel he's better at shorter distances...and so do I, as much as I love to see him move.

I love Giant Oak and Tar Heel Mom, but I feel both are G2 horses with occassional flashes of brilliance just like Jeranimo.

I'm going to beg Steve's pardon, while I vent. Been reading Jason's blogs and, lately, no matter the topic, they all turn into a Zen bash. I'm tired of it. I dared him to print what I had to say...he didn't. So here it was........

"Aaaaaargh! I'm sitting here tearing out my hair. I thought this blog was about the 2011 BC Classic. I should have known better. No blog of Jason's could go for very long without rehashing 2009 and 2010...not the BC...just the mares.

To denigrate any race horse does a great disservice to them all. Don't call yourself a fan of horse racing; you're just a fan of your own hot air, enamoured only with your keyboard and merely stroking your own opinion because you think it's all that matters.

It goes on...and on...and on...goaded by Jason whose own handicapping skills seem to have tanked for the past 2 years, and who is left with so little on which to expound so he keeps pounding Zenyatta? Do you even have the guts to print this? Do you have the guts to control your own blog? Do you have anything new to say?

I would rather talk about So You Think...and the fact that Havre de Grace has run faster times than the boys. She's my 2nd choice for the Classic. I love THAS, but he's still recovering. I think Mott has a champion, who has a better turn of foot than Stay Thirsty. I think the Classic is the wrong race for UM, just as last year I thought it was a mistake for QR. Brilliant at a mile...Uncle Mo may be back..but not for 10f."

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Ranagulzion — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 16:49:10 GMT

Coldfacts,

I enjoyed your BCC analysis. Good stuff. I took note that your current fancies are THAS and Drosselmyer. The latter finished strongly in the JCGC but he's too slow to be a winning factor in the Classic. I think that he has a better chance in the Marathon, although he'll still have his work cut out to defeat AU Miner in that race IMO.

I'm not surprised by your views about Tizway and Uncle Mo: I think that you'll be proven wrong again about these. As for So You Think, pardon me but I didn't get your point.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Think Twice About Classic Rankings

Smoking Baby — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 16:42:34 GMT

oso7 (I always think of Oso Pkwy in Mission Viejo, Ca. when I read your posts) I feel you pain about Blind Luck but I do want to say that not everyone that is in the racing business is necessarily in the breeding business. Selling breeding stock is just another part of the business and if someone overseas is willing to step up and pay the highest price that's no disgrace it's just free enterprise.