So You Think, Dude

re: So You Think, Dude

Linda in Texas — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 01:57:39 GMT

Fran Loszynski - your wish came true and and Afleet Again took your well wishes all the way to the wire with a win.

That was so nice 41-1. I was happy for him and his connections, and for you Fran, also!!!!

I was a happy camper with the grays winning today. :)

Game on Dude 'almost' did it, but not if Drosselmeyer had anything to do and he did.

Now we still don't have a Horse of The Year locked in.

re: So You Think, Dude

Fran Loszynski — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 17:23:44 GMT

Good Luck Afleet Again in the Marathon. Bring it home again for Afleet Alex. Lexington is close by, Alex will be watching. Hope you are feeling well Steve. and your family is well- Something is in the mail for you this weekend you'll enjoy reading.

re: So You Think, Dude

Linda in Texas — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 15:50:45 GMT

Seeing Stay Thirsty pictured with the article on ll/3/11's Bloodhorse.com article just makes me smile. I finally realized as i accessed the site what it is about him that attracts me, i think that he should have been named "HAPPY GO LUCKY" and i hope he will be.

He just looks like he really likes what he does and is content and i simply cannot give up on him. So i will be pulling for Stay Thirsty, And not for any other reason.

The Legend, so yes i, too, like Stay Thirsty and always have.

In my little central Texas town there is frost on the pumpkins and going to be down to 20 in the morning. A nice change from 110 in the shade although a little early.

May your choices for The Breeder's Cup Races be winning ones and most importantly, may all those carrying those hopes come home safely.

And Goldikova, this old lady will be pulling for you Grand Lady. You are extraordinary and to be honored for sure!

Thank You Mr. Haskin, hope you enjoy the week end of racing.

Just too bad there is not a Breeder's Cup race for Gelded and Gutsy Horses like Rapid Redux so he could receive a trophy. He deserves one and I admire him tremendously as i have said before.

re: So You Think, Dude

Terry M. — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 21:41:47 GMT

Pedigree Ann, you said it! We need a return to stamina, and that means longer races. Since when does a stayer go 8 or 9 furlongs? When I was young, a stayer went anywhere from 10 furlongs to 2 miles. If there were more long races with big purses, maybe breeders would concentrate more on soundness and stamina and durability instead of breeding for juveniles that can run a quarter in 21. Horses that have a quick flash of brilliance, then get injured and are retired to the breeding at 2 or 3 to produce more fast juveniles that won't go a distance (in terms of furlongs or in durability) are not good for horse racing. Horses that race from ages 3 to 6 or longer can build a following amongst the public and bring new fans to the sport, too.

re: So You Think, Dude

Slew — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 13:02:05 GMT

No one here doesn't know my pick is So You Think, and it was the Coral-Eclipse that convinced me of what a great heart he has, winning even though he was never comfortable during the entire race.

Just how many of these horses have run 10f? well? SYT (up and down those undulating courses in Europe), Havre de Grace, (The races she lost were by only a nose hair to Blind Luck), and I'll toss in one three year old for the tri-To Honor And Serve...he's bred for it. Right now, Uncle Mo is the favorite, and I don't think he has the experience.

Poor Bob Baffert has angered the racing gods, it would seem. Only Game On Dude didn't draw post position 1.

I will miss Prayer For Relief, Nathaniel, and what happened to Bourbon Bay? I thought he was doing the marathon? Meeznah is 12-1...are they kidding? She's my favorite in the Marathon with BB out.

Big Drama AND Jackson Bend in the sprint? I'm looking for a dead heat with 2 of my favorites.

Goldie and Gio dead heat too? It's the final race for both of them, and they deserve it sentimentally, but Zoffany is no slouch.

Haven't been in touch lately. With 10 inches of snow last Saturday, I thought my hibernation was supposed to start. Help??? DR. D, I need some tequila and a palm tree on a beach somewhere warm.

re: So You Think, Dude

The Deacon — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 06:18:28 GMT

Pedigree Ann: My point exactly.......the Breeders Cup has become watered down in my opinion. It's turning into a circus more then a world championship. What do I know, only been in the game for 56 years.

re: So You Think, Dude

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 14:40:14 GMT

Deacon, when the Breeders' Cup was inaugurated back in the 1980s, there were plenty of major 10f races for older horses in the East. In Florida, there were the Widener at Hialeah and the Gulfstream Park H at GP. The there was the John B. Campbell at Bowie, and the nearly 10f Pimlico Special. Over the summer, there was the Suburban, the Monmouth H (aka Amory Haskell H aka P. Iselin H), and (sometimes) the Saratoga H. In the fall there was the Woodward (before the 12f JCGC), the Meadowlands Cup, and the Hawthorne Gold Cup. In the days before I started watching racing, both the Whitney and Mass 'Cap were 10f, too, not to mention the Arlington and Washington Park Hcps, before they were moved to the turf. I see I've left off Canada's 10f Dominion Day H, too.

Why have the tracks shortened or eliminated their 10f stakes for older horses? I have no idea. Ask them. Maybe trainers who can't train stayers pressed for the change, or the 10f races were blamed for later poor performances, the way Shug complained about how the 12f JCGC 'dulled' Easy Goer for the BCC. (Easy Goer, a big-striding muscular animal, was not as good on 8f tracks as he was on the NY tracks overall. Sour grapes, IMHO.) Thank goodness for the West Coast, where the big handicaps have maintained their classic distances, although other races like the Strub (G1)and Del Mar's listed-level Cabrillo were hacked back.

That reminds me that another thing that is missing from the current program - G3 and listed level races at 10f, where horses can try their hand at the distance without having to go head-to-head with top horses. Like running in a local marathon before you try Boston. There are horses out there who can run well at 10f who won't get the opportunity because they aren't G1 animals.

re: So You Think, Dude

Coldfacts — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 12:16:46 GMT

RANAGULZION,

I have nothing but respect for your opinions even if I do not agree with some. However, I think you have been so blinded by your emotion for Uncle Mo that you now refuse to see.

“Uncle Mo is the only one capable in my view and I feel very confident that he's coming to put on a show. You might want to call this year’s BCC the Uncle Mo Show”

The following horses finished second to Uncle Mo: Admiral Perry, Mountain Town, Boys At Tosconova, Rattlesnake Bridge and Jackson’s Bend. I do not believe any of the aforementioned have the résumé of the top horses in the BCC field. Uncle Mo defeated Admiral Perry on debut by 14 1/2L. To Honor and Serve defeated Admiral Perky in his maiden win by in excess of 32 1/4L. Uncle Mo defeated Rattlesnake Bridge by 3 3/4L in the ungraded Timely Writer. To Honor and Serve defeated a much improved and Gl placed Rattlesnake Bridge by 5 1/2L in the PA derby. Of the horses uncle Mo defeated in his BCJ victory only stable companion Stay Thirsty has emerged as a serious horse. He finished 10L behind Uncle Mo in the BCJ. To Honor and Serve exited the FL Derby with 3rd place finish and an issued that sidelined him. Stay Thirsty was in the race and finished 10L behind him. Here is a case where three horses that Uncle Mo has defeated handily THS has defeated by either similar and wider margins.

Both colts were sidelined with issue that impacted their 3YO campaigns. The issue associated with one was far more serious than the other. Both have returned and have run very fast races leading up to the BCC.THS has contested five 9F races with his last two being considered preps for the BCC. Uncle Mo two preps for the BCC were at 7F & 8F. None of the last 10 US based BCC winners entered the race without at least one 9F prep. How can you seriously consider the BCC the Uncle Mo Show? Come on man!

re: So You Think, Dude

JerseyBoy — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 10:20:19 GMT

Coldfacts:

I re-read what you wrote.

The use of a small "c" is misleading. You are obviously referring to the Breeders' Cup Classic, not Classic races in general. But now I am amazed that you have discerned a pattern after so few runnings of the BC Classic.

Merry Xmas to all.

re: So You Think, Dude

Coldfacts — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 01:26:08 GMT

JerseyBoy,

“Monster Gl performers have extremely poor records as classic producing broodmares”.

Poor record does not equate to no record. Poor was used in the context of number of Gl winning broodmares in the system to the number of classic wining horses they produce. The Blog is about The Breeder Cup so I do not want digress into an area that is not relevant at this time. At a later date I will provide the cold facts to support my poor record conclusion.

re: So You Think, Dude

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:20:58 GMT

Terrific article Steve! I've been watching TVG's "The Works" all weekend. Game On Dude had one awesome work at Santa Anita in a lot of company and he excelled. He really looks tough, but Mo has speed too and I think can put him away in the stretch. Mo's work was yes, lackluster and mundane, but I think that is all they were gunning for, just a maintenance to stay fit work. I gotta say Steve, your Stay Thirsty's work was great, I was impressed. Maybe little Thirsty can do this after all? Interesting that Mo, Havre, and Thirsty are all next to each other in the Classic gate, the only thing separating them is a Headache! Flat Out's work was awesome, looks like a freight train and he was the one I was not sold on yet. I still don't get why Havre was training on poly at Keeneland, Larry must know something we don't. TVG's staff was not impressed with her poly workout, let's see how she looks on Churchill's dirt when she arrives. Can't wait to see ROI's work. Still picking Mo, Havre, ROI for the Classic.

Linda in Texas,

Yes I was watching the ponies too! At Los Alamitos they had all little kids in a parade and Halloween custume contest. Great marketing idea. Everyone was in T-shirts at Los Al and here we were in NJ in an almost blizzard! Yikes it was awful, I had to cancel all plans and stay in on Saturday longing to be in CA!

Off topic: Watching races from Australia the past few weeks and noticed some gate strategies. In one race a horse did not want to load, they tried to walk him around and just back him in the front of the gate but he did not like that either. That was it, they scratched him then and there, no ear pulling and no blindfold. Then in another race two horses were a little agitated about loading. The got both in the gate riderless and the jocks jumped on the last minute. Again, no ear pulling, no blindfold.

Now back to BC reading and who is in what race. Who's on first?????

re: So You Think, Dude

JerseyBoy — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:17:36 GMT

This is the year I sit out the Breeders' Cup. Every horse I like is poorly drawn.

Soccer looks more exciting. Let's go Chelsea!

re: So You Think, Dude

Matthew W — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:16:41 GMT

So I think, dude, The Classic looks weak--maybe the filly will win/maybe Unclo Mo is able to get the distance--but there's a drop off, maybe the Aussie will sieze the day--the two year old fillies turf drew strong--it is the most compelling of the Cup races--I love Pure Gossip, the Euro, and Somali Lemonade are the real deal, too! Amazombie is peaking for the Sprint, Tanda is a great price for the filly sprint, and Miss Match sure isn't miss-matched in the Ladies Classic, is she?

re: So You Think, Dude

bohemiastable — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 21:54:41 GMT

I disappeared from the thoroughbred scene having my early picks for the sprint Noble Promise and having Check the Label checking out in the Queen’s Plate then getting nothing but dirt in his face in next race and retiring for the remainder of the year with $1000’s of mine including a P3 and P4 with a $90 horse used in the race proceeding. So much for my thoughts of a Canadian Bred champion this year. Most disappointing loss of my season because I was so sure of him.

Disappearing act continued from my first love of thoroughbreds when I bought into (5th) a NY trotter who trained exceptionally well before getting sick. He recovered well enough to go undefeated in 3 small last closers and win a $35K minor restricted stake so I have big dreams for next year with many restricted big money NY Sires stakes. That said my first love is always those who use jockeys not drivers, when the BC comes and I take off work to go on Friday.

My thoughts first are as always WHY? HDG would win the Filly/Mare so why go and prove try something. I have been in Blink Lucks camp throughout but this is a great mare. Take the big pot and HOY.

Mo certainly was impressive and I became a member of his camp when he destroyed a nice “now horse” in Jackson Bend in the NY race. Mile a gift for him but he as the mare goes for all the marbles and leaves me thinking is he ready—the talent there but??? Classic?

So here are thoughts given what I hope is for fast track and firm turf.

Not going to pick all and be vague of a few divisions just think the Euros will win both 2yr old turf stakes; I saw no stars in NA. The mare turf will go Euro if the replant (STACELITA) doesn’t prove she is better now, GOLDIKOVA who I will cheer for her fourth win in the race, and definitely the one to beat but not as invincible as before. The big one on turf—the Turf Classic- I just think a Euro win will. The betting opportunities are there but unlike some I don’t bet or pick wide open races with confidence, yes I have opinions--- but

Big Drama best horse in sprint by some fair margin but is he right? Watching no bet—want him to win

TURBULENT DESCENT looks best and is the only horse this year I bet almost $1000 as odds on in the Test—hate short prices and this isn’t as easy---will be watching that race. If itchy to play a tri with Switch and Great Hot be a small wager.

I will be also watching UNION RAGS as he hooks up with Hanson, Drill and Creative Cause---and others who I won’t dismiss. Nice race to enjoy without a bet. I am more interested in this one than any of the races from a fan’s view.

SECRET CIRCLE on press and figures should win—but—why at 3-5? Money better spent.

Now the spot plays that actually will have fair money of mine trying to increase my bankroll.

IF CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE was good as he was he would be my pick for a double in the Turf Sprint because this IS his course, but he hasn’t been the same so I like CARACORTADO if the turf is hard—he good and a hard trier in a race without stars—the winner of the Nearctic REGALLY READY will be good and tough if you watched the race GRAND ADVENTURE needed to get out of a box for most of the stretch and a non-threatening 4th—would he have won? Don’t think so but at 40-1 a perfect bomb for tri’s. Good race to try to play exotics at a number. Will get 5-1 or better on Cara I expect.

In the MILE DIRT I think the race is worth a decent exactor box with THE FACTOR and JACKSON BEND in the weakest race next to the turf sprint. Very nice horses but not what I think of Champions when the term is used. Bend has always been a favorite of mine over achiever. Factor gets loose—might be gone?

The “Classic” won’t pretend I wouldn’t try like the Derby and bet---a no confidence bet nevertheless on Flat Out seems likely for me hooking him up with other trying to strike a ticket. I truly believe he will show up and run well, but is at the mercy of others not being great. Good story if he wins

Two horses I expect who will be slighted that I expect will run their hearts out and make their owner proud even if they don’t win would be COMPLIANCE OFFICER and GIANT RYAN their win streaks are not flukes. Problem is if Big Drama and Goldi show? These are World Champions not state affairs.

re: So You Think, Dude

Cris — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 21:54:05 GMT

In these talented fields it is easy to overlook horses. I think Rattlesnake Bridge may surprise. Drosselmeyer is ready for a big effort although he may not be fast enough for these. He is going to be there for the exotics. Chantel's sloppy riding habits will not be forgiven like it is in California. She better ride cleanly. Ice Box will be coming. Gio Ponti has been given a job to do and he will do the best he can as always. He is a horse who has been raced at the wrong distance most of his career and made the most of it. A horse with a similar fate is Shackleford who is finally running at what I think is his prime distance and I hope he brings it home. HDG has never been as good as Blind Luck and although I am a fan, I hate to see her in the Classic. Why not a race against mares? Good luck to Mike Smith who should be able to enjoy the day on Mr.Commons much better than he did on Zenyatta even if it was their finest hour.

re: So You Think, Dude

The Legend — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 17:09:19 GMT

I have enjoyed reading all the comments but not one of the bloggers have mentioned Stay Thirsty? His work yesterday was outstanding! Much better the Mo.

Stay Thirsty get's the perfect setup for the Classic. He sit's behind what is expected to be a very quick early pace and get's first jump on all the closers. I will be using Stay Thirsty and Flat Out in my exacts and in triple box'x with the rest of the field. Does anyone else like Stay Thirsty?

re: So You Think, Dude

Footlick — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 14:24:38 GMT

Ranagulzion- unless I hear something that would put me off So You Think he will be my choice for the Classic. My only question mark for him is dirt. We know he loves the distance and he is fit. THAS and Royal Delta are training awfully well, aren't they? As well as Flat Out.

re: So You Think, Dude

JerseyBoy — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 13:51:46 GMT

Coldfacts:

When you make a grand statement, you need to say whether the statement is one of fact or just an opinion. If it is a statement of fact you need to give the source of the information or some readers are left wondering.

You wrote this:

“Monster Gl performers have extremely poor records as classic producing broodmares”.

Where do the following broodmares fit?

Snow bride:

Dam of unbeaten Epsom Derby and Arc winner Lammtarra. She won the Epsom Oaks.

Miesque:

Dam of super sire Kingmambo. She won the Breeders' Cup Mile twice.

Urban Sea:

Dam of super sire Galileo and Sea the Stars. She won the Arc.

re: So You Think, Dude

GoldenBroom — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 12:14:07 GMT

I think a mile, especially at Churchill may be too much for The Factor. Going to be pulling for Shackleford all the way...Though I'm not sure he can get a mile at Churchill under 1:35 and with this bunch, it just may...

re: So You Think, Dude

The Deacon — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 07:17:23 GMT

Stacelita is my best for next weekend.

Horse betting is fickled, how many times have we all gone up to the window with the intent on laying down a Benjamin on one horse and by the time we reach the window, we change our mind or we add 5 more horses to the exoctics. Such is the confusion of this sport. Wouldn't it be something if we got big prices in just about every race. i got a strange feeling we ain't gonna see much chalk win, except of course for Stacelita.

Not this year Goldy, you got 3 trophies, time for Gio Ponti to go out in style.

Still like Harve de Grace in the Classic, she is well rested, won the Beldame with ease and already handled Flat Out. Uncle Mo is the wild card, if he gets the 10 furlongs then he will win big. Until he proves that he can win at the classic distance I am leaving him alone. Winning a one turn mile with a high Beyer at Belmont is one thing, duplicating that on a sandy cold surface near twilight at Churchill Downs is another.

I have an observation: There are 15 Breeders Cup races and only 1 is run at 9 furlongs (1 1/8) and that is the Ladies Classic.

Interesting because most of our races during the year for the males are run at 9 furlongs. The Derby, Travers, Santa Anita Handicap, Pacific Classic, Hollywood Gold Cup, and JCGC are the only 10 furlong preps for the Breeders Cup Classic (unless I missed one).

Just look at all the 9 furlong prep races we have and not one Breeders Cup 9 furlong race for the boys..........

Good luck to all.

re: So You Think, Dude

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 02:58:18 GMT

Ranagulzion

The track won't matter for Ice Box even if it's the exact same consistency as his Derby run. He's deservedly the longest shot in the field. I'd give Rattlesnake a better shot than Ice Box who has shown no willingness to compete for many races despite looking very good physically. I'll stick to my longshots. Thanks though, I do appreciate the effort.

re: So You Think, Dude

predict — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 02:58:18 GMT

Very intresting pace scenario, and the Classic looks to be anything but easy to predict this year. I don't think anyone will be greatly surprised at who wins, even if Stay Thirsty wins. This will be an interesting race to see how it all pans out. I don't see any reason why So You Think should not take to the dirt. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him even be better on the dirt, having as much Northern Dancer blood in him , he could excel on the dirt. I go with him to win and expect the two big names, Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace to disappoint, mainly because I don't see them as winning at a 1 1/4 miles. I expect Flat Out, Ruler on Ice and Stay Thirsty to be in the top four.

The horse I'm excited about seeing how he does is Sea Moon in the Turf. He's my best bet for the cup races. A lightly raced 3 year old might be a crazy bet here, but I think he could be something special who's ready to surprise.

re: So You Think, Dude

Mary Zinke — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 02:14:08 GMT

hi to footy now people will talk lets hope

re: So You Think, Dude

Point Given — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 00:16:19 GMT

The only thing in horse racing that Baffert has not accomplished yet is to win BC's Classic.Baffert's Entries will run one and two (Prayer For Relief & Game On Dude).

re: So You Think, Dude

KY VET — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 00:09:50 GMT

I cannot believe BAFFERT is going to run in the mile.....BIG MISTAKE!!! The mile has too much speed, and better horses.....i will be shocked if he does that...everbody is reporting mile....hard for me to believe.