Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 15:35:37 GMT

You're right - I was going by memory. But back then, my DRFs were precious and I read and re-read them until they were (I thought) engrained in my memory. Mayhap the wording was different; the writer may have been speculating that Arachne would make a good mate for him because of etc. I keep thinking Gerald Strine for the columnist, but he wrote for the Baltimore paper not the DRF, didn't he?

Didn't start going to tracks until I went to college in So Cal in 1970, so never saw Dr. F in person. Took columnist's word for it. Meant no disrespect; great horse. Not what idiots today call great (after 2 or 3 races), but truly GREAT.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

sceptre — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 00:36:22 GMT

Pedigree Ann-

Tartan didn't "acquire" Arachne-they bred her...Can't say whether you should or shouldn't believe a DRF writer, but perhaps you should question your memory (as, at times, must we all).

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

sceptre — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 00:29:50 GMT

Pedigree Ann-

"There's nothing in his pedigree that makes him a stayer. Still, he does have beautiful action, and the smoothest, longest stride I've ever een on any of my horses.---

direct quote from John Nerud, April 24, 1967, Sports Illustrated.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 14:24:46 GMT

Sceptre, I read it in a DRF column about the mare Arachne. Don't recall who wrote it, but said columnist noted Arachne's neat, correct action and suggested that Tartan had acquired her to breed to Dr. Fager as a correction. (Arachne did produce a SW and a SP winner by Dr. Fager.) I shouldn't believe a DRF writer?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Mike Monarchos — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 01:38:40 GMT

Mike Smith's riding Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby? If so, great! Bode probably needs to win to have enough money to make the Derby. No pressure there.

I watched the replay of the Wood several times and didn't really see any extreme paddeling. Maybe with a short oar. I wasn't obvious to me though. I'm going to watch again so I can see Gem throw his ears up at the wire like Steve said.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

glazeman — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 00:58:01 GMT

Steve, In case you didnt notice, Done Talkin who won the Ill. Derby, was the 29th 2 yr.old maiden winner from Delaware Park to win a Grades Stakes race.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Slew — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 15:59:58 GMT

Holy Candy opted for the Blue Grass. Mike Smith will be on Bodemeister for the Arkansas Derby.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

sceptre — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 21:56:56 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

Dr. Fager DID NOT "paddle like a duck", rather, he had a fluid, nearly perfect action. How do you come up with such hogwash? -perhaps you read it on another blog, from one equally uninformed.

Steve, you were quite familiar with Dr. Fager-why not set her straight?..Yes, there have been poor movers that still became top racehorses-Skip Away comes readily to mind-but paddling, and the like, is a hindrance to optimum performance.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Bill Two — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 17:08:56 GMT

Right on with Morgan's Guerilla who ran a great race at Hawthorne. As a longtime Maryland racing fan I was happy for Ham Smith who won the race with Done Talking. I see a lot of horses with much ability, but how that translates to performance in the Derby, who knows? We've all seen so many horses who are world beaters at the Wood or Santa Anita distance who need a cab to get a mile-and-a-quarter. Tread carefully before jumping on anything we've seen so far. I heard you on TVG this morning and I agree with the points you made about Gemologist, but I'm not sold on him yet. I'm

leery of Graham Motion and Went The Day Well, but who really knows how such a lightly raced horse will react to the Derby environment? He'll get the distance probably, but that's all we know right now. All I know is that I haven't seen anything yet that resembles Big Brown or even Monarchos.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Auburndee — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 16:39:47 GMT

Thanks for the article: I love Holy Candy; in fact, I've been following all the Candy's since Ron McAnally brought Candy Ride from Argentina.

It sounds like Sadler is leaning towards the Blue Grass. I'd rather see him in Arkansas. I'm not a big synthetic snob, but Kneeland seems to be the worst transition for dirt horses.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Deltalady — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 14:36:04 GMT

You sure called it, Steve! The Santa Anita Derby and The Wood turned out just as you hoped! You're on a roll!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Mike Monarchos — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 23:44:39 GMT

Well Gemologist managed to hold off Alpha in the Wood. Alpha looked like he had Gem, but the son of Tiznow held him off just like his dad did in the 2000 & 2001 B. C. Classics. The final time was slow

(1:50.96). I don't really know how the track was playing today? I ended up keying Gem on top of Alpha, My Adonis, Teeth Of the Dog, Street Life, and the Lumber Guy in a dollar tri so I made a little money. The best thing about the race was that two of my Derby Futures picks made the Derby field.

I know Alpha checked on the first turn, but Gem ran wide all the way to the stretch so their trips balanced out.

In the S.A. Derby I bet a 1,4/1,4/2,6,8 tri. I can't believe I left out Baffert's other horse (Blueskiesnrainbows). That dollar tri paid 250.00! I also put Paynter on top in an exacta and tri and he got fourth. That race time was 1:47.88, but Santa Anita is a fast track. I'll Have Another is another horse I have in Derby Futures, and he made the field. Now I need Bodemeister to be first or second in the Arkansas Derby next week.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

PomDeTerre — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 16:38:47 GMT

Santa Anita:

Midnight Transfer

Paynter exacta

Wood_

Alpha but this race isn't worth a bet

Illinois-

Morgan's Guerrilla (with Rosie on board)

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

plodderman — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 16:20:45 GMT

Wood Memorial:

Let's assume that the Lumber Guy and Gemologist set the pace. Niether should come home on top and there is no telling which will outlast the other. Alpha, although off for a while should be able to take advantage of this duel. Casual Trick was heading in the right direction, but then ran 2 clunkers. They were two tough races, but the class hike proved to be too much. Teeth of the Dog was tooth and nail (pun intended) to get home on ytop with a 13 second final 1/8 against Maidens, so that is a toss. Street life is interesting, but after running the first half in 51, he would need to be a superstar to run down the others. This leaves us with My Adonis and Tiger Walk. My Adonis hasn't run enough to win at this level on a fast track. Seems to do his best on the wet track. (sorry Mike W) Tiger Walk on the other hand Will love this pace set up and should be flying home. Although I love Alpha, I would box ALPHA/GEMOLOGIST/TIGER WALK/THE LUMBER GUY. And then come back again with both ALPHA/TIGER WALK on the 1-3 positions. There you have it. Go make some $$$

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

El Kabong — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 14:45:47 GMT

Steve, Pedigree Anne

No question the Ark Derby is the easiest spot if they run Holy Candy, but I agree with Pedigree Anne that Derby Fever is often the motivation for decisions that would otherwise never be made. In this year of controversy, I hope all trainers, especially those at the top, will use extra care in their decisions on when and where to run their dependent kids. Think of them as family and make the right decision.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

RiverCitySmitty — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 14:42:34 GMT

Are the stars aligning for The Lumber Guy? Perfect for those who play hunch bets. First, the name. He won his first stakes in the Miracle Wood and now goes in the Wood Memorial. I think he just adds to the pace scenario and hardly ever make hunch bets unless it's my favorite number.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 14:14:47 GMT

Dr. Fager is supposed to have paddled like a duck. Didn't slow him down. Or cause him injury.

The Pamplemousse paddled AND hit the ground hard with his front-heavy stride. The latter action led to his injury, not the paddling.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Mike Monarchos — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 14:03:42 GMT

Thanks Steve,

I love Gemologist and I don't want to see him get hurt. I think he'll do well today in the Wood. I think Gemologist will let the Lumber Guy lead, and pass him at the top of the stretch. He'll then hold off the late charges of My Adonis, Alpha, and Street Life. I'll key Gemologist over those three in exactas, tris, and supers.

Street Life closes well, but the times in his last two inner track races were slow! I don't see how he can win. My Adonis has been training at Aqueduct, and should get second. Alpha has been off for almost two months and has been working in Florida. He's had six works, which seem good, not great. I'm not sure about him. He needs to get at least third to make the Derby.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

RiverCitySmitty — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 13:26:44 GMT

I think the best way to handicap the Illinois Derby is with a ouija board. A ten cent superfecta with 5 horses only runs you 12 bucks in this unfathomable race.

Mike Monarchos: The times in Street Life's races were slow due to the dawdling fractions up front. He overcame that and today will get a much swifter pace to run at. Chad Brown will win a couple of stakes today besides this one.

I like Midnight Transfer in the SA Derby.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Steve Haskin — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 06:27:14 GMT

Mike Monarchos, its called paddling. Its an abnormality in the stride that is caused naturally. nothing you can do about it. its not desirable, but it doesnt affect the horse's performance.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 00:59:12 GMT

Sending a one-race maiden winner at 5.5f into a G1 at 9f against seasoned stakes performers is the most bizarre thing I have heard of a trainer doing in a long time. Yes, he's by Awesome Again out of a full sister to Tiznow so he should love the distance. But you don't even know if he can beat winners or go two turns yet! It is far too late for him to make the Derby with a chance to win at this point, so why throw him to the wolves?

Same sort of thought on Holy Candy. If they want to have some horse later in the year, they should let the Derby go. I don't care how impressively he beat maidens; if bad maidens were stopping in front of him, he could look like the second coming of Hindoo and still not be ready for this level of competition.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Alex'sBigFan — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 00:33:37 GMT

Good article Steve and cute title too.

Hmmmmm.......Martin Garcia is riding Paynter? Ok, Paynter is my first choice for the Santa Anita Derby. Garcia is a brilliant young rider and I have a lot of faith in him. And Marilyn's dream................

Santa Anita Derby:

Paynter

Creative Cause

Midnight Transfer (I gotta give the little Hard Spun a chance)

For the Wood, I'm still:

Gemologist

Street Life

My Adonis

I have no idea what to make of the Illinois Derby.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Don from PA/DE — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 23:57:00 GMT

Yes Steve, after Saturday the KD Gods will be beaming, I expect "Gemologist" to win big time with any of the other 7 coming in behind him, but strange things can happen, and if not, we may be looking at a new "unexpected" star, but "GEM" should be shinning brightly, and peaking at the perfect time to move on to big stardom....Don

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Mike Monarchos — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 23:35:01 GMT

Steve,

Will you please give your thoughts about Gemologist's unusual action with his left front leg?

This is the second time I've asked. I ever said PLEASE! Thanks.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: What Does Candy Have in Store?

Mike Monarchos — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 23:28:10 GMT

I just can't see Street Life winning the Wood. Yes he's won his last two races, but the times were very slow. 1:46 and change in his last 1 1/16 race. He might get up for third if he's lucky. Gemologist should be hard to beat. Alpha should get second to insure a Derby trip.

In the Santa Anita Derby Creative Cause is the best colt, but he doesn't have to win. his trainer is taking the blinkers off him for the first time. That's kinda risky. I'm going to put some money on Paynter because of a dream. Maybe I'm just dreaming, but I'll try anything to cash a ticket. I even keyed Draynay's pick in thr 4th at Keeneland today. Bad decision, his 3 horse got beat by a longshot!

I'm still trying to decide who to bet in the Illinois Derby???