Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Tiz Herself — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 19:43:19 GMT

After rewatching the BC Juvenile and seeing Dullahan close to fourth (on a track described as peanut butter) he has to be considered.

Congratulations Steve on your Charles W. Engelhard Award. Could not have been awarded to anyone better!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 14:19:11 GMT

Beyers are a guide,and when one horse stands out above all others you better pay attention.When they are within 5 pts of each other its a subjective call.BTW Bellamy Road ran a 122 Beyer,which is a figure that older handicap horses used to run to win graded stakes.Bode has run 3 100+ figures using Beyers,and Brisnet.Dont use him if you like because you dont have him in the futures bet, and are adamant that he will lose.Thats why his odds I hope will be over 5-1.He is not a lock as a 3yo,but if he gets a similar trip,running within himself near the lead you would be illogical to think he dosent have a chance before the race is run.BTW I hope he rates off of Hansen and 1 or 2 others and gets a Big Brown type of trip.It is possible remember Baffert said he didnt like his stretch run in the San Felipe so he removed the blinkers for the Arkansas Derby,that could be what he needed.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

plodderman — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 20:03:52 GMT

Will Bodemeister bounce? No. Does it matter? No. He has beaten NOBODY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't let those 100+ Beyers fool you. It's easy when everything goes your own way.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 21:51:18 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

The comparison of Bodemeister and

Bellamy Road is apt, but a major difference between them might be their prep race.

Bodemeister was off the bit and almost nonchalant cruising to the wire, while in the Wood Bellamy Road was driven in the stretch, whipped and scrubbed all the way, when he should have been eased. Seven lengths would have been enough, no?

While his race caller was saying "He's got a lot left," I was thinking "Adrenalin spike. Bounce."

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

plodderman — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 21:33:05 GMT

Hansen-Schmansen.

Does anyone remember that the Ky Derby usually has a faster pace than the norm. One demension horses like Hansen-Bodemeister-Circle, ALL are done in by the fractions. The "best" horse rarely wins. Most horses that need to run 1-2 gennerally get burnt. Hansen is a 1000% lock to get run into the ground. He'll look great at the 1/4 pole, good at the 1/8 pole and beat at the 1/16 pole. Same with Bode and Circle.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Bill Two — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 20:20:06 GMT

Dullahan was absolutely brilliant down the stretch Saturday. Assuming he can run equally well if not better on CD dirt who will beat him? I remember Bob Baffert was asked by a reporter a few years ago whether a particular horse would be able to translate superior synthetic form to dirt. He didn't even hesitate answering and quickly stressed that most horses run better on dirt. With all of the speed horses signed on to the Derby this year - as usual - Dullahan certainly appears to be one of the horses to beat. I wouldn't forget about Went The Day Well either.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

El Kabong — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 17:08:50 GMT

Slew, you do, I do, I saw laz did and I know Steve will mention it. Still, there are going to be plenty who will under estimate Dullahan and that's just great news for me. I have seen enough from this guy and I just hope Kent can guide him home. He has all the goods. Now he needs the trip.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 17:02:26 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

I was right with you on Bodemeister cf. Bellamy Road and looked at his stretch run several times in slo mo. I don't think he'll bounce. He was off the bit and breezing, almost nonchalant; not likely to overproduce adrenalin and get an adrenalin shutdown off that finish. No stress on him anywhere in his run.

Bellamy Road in the Wood, on the other hand, was pretty hard ridden in the stretch, whip and scrubbing, when by rights he should have been snugged down. Some of these riders seem to forget they have a stake in the horse's next race.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Karen in Indiana — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 16:47:03 GMT

Cris, HRTV interviewed Dale Romans yesterday and asked him about that & Dale said 'Everybody knows that's just what Kent does, pulling them up so fast'. I would hope that Dale told Kent 'Don't do that again or you are off this horse'.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 16:31:45 GMT

Have a heart, guys. Doesn't a driven young trainer ever get to a point where he can rest on his laurels? D. Wayne is closing in on 80 years old. Let him wind it down some without sneering that those who rest on their laurels are wearing them in the wrong place.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

MikeM — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 16:21:10 GMT

Pedigree Ann - Unless the majority of the speed horses decide not to get caught up in a duel, which I'm sure none of them want.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

furlongs — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 15:57:01 GMT

Pedigree Ann- Take Charge Indy wants no part of the lead in the Ky Derby. Calvin goes to the lead when he needs to not because he wants too. TCI will rate behind horses and its up to you the handicapper to guess if he can make his move in the turn and make the lead at that point or just fade with the other speed in the race. I have never been much a fan of TCI but his FL Derby was a solid set up to be sitting off the pace and have that first run on all the closers in the race. He along with Creative Cause and I'll Have Another could be dangerous horses in this years Ky Derby. I am really looking forward to seeing how Dullahan works before the Ky Derby. I wanted to list Union Rags as well in that group making there first run but I wonder with the current jock if that move will be too late (AE:FL DERBY) and he just gets gobbled up from the closers in the race. Or the speed in front of him continues to go on. Anyway should be a fun race to handicap and watch as well!!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

furlongs — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 15:44:52 GMT

105 now up to a 108 beyer! LOL By the time the Beyer Boys get this horse in the starting gate guess he will be up to a 110, its a complete joke!! This is just a small reminder why I use Brisnet PP's before I would DRF... I thought Bodemeister was super looking in the Ark Derby and I think he has a world of talent but he is going to have to look Hansen in the eye in the Ky Derby and that is not going to be an easy task. Hansen was running splits at Keeneland that truly makes it a wonder how he hung around at the end! I thought Hansen ran the best race of his life in a losing effort on Saturday when you consider the fractions he was setting. There is no doubt to me that Hansen is NOT a horse that wants to rate and is a need the lead kind of horse. With Bodemeister and Hansen being two of the fastest 3 years out there at this point this Derby is looking like its going to be fast up front, and when you have it fast up front something has got to give. Now let the real excitement begin!! Good luck at the windows...

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 14:05:39 GMT

Baffert cleaned up in Arkansas this year because the 3yos training there were not much. As were the horses racing at Fair Grounds. It happens in cylces, sometimes one region is loaded, sometimes it is another. Have to be flexible and recognize which is up and which is down for the season.

I have but one word (well, two words) of caution for the Bodemeister fans - Bellamy Road. He was a genuine horse and a genuine stayer (showed it in the Travers) but got caught up in a fast pace and couldn't finish in the Derby. There are some non-cheap speed horses coming into this race - Hansen and Take Charge Indy for two - and nobody should be getting an easy lead.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Cris — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 12:38:08 GMT

Shug is the best hay and oats trainer out there. As a fan I have always felt if Rachel Alexandria had been turned over to him the joy she once had for racing would have given us the treat for the eyes we had come to expect of her.

Kent is a gifted jockey and must have needed to pull the horse up, otherwise he would have galloped out. As wonderful as Big Brown was and is, the shadow of how the horse was handled by his team keeps following Kent around. Kent did nothing but watch out for the horse and himself. I hope he has the best of luck during the triple crown and can get the stigma of Big Brown's Belmont off his back.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 23:48:31 GMT

Furlongs nobody took me up on the bet he ran all 10 and he won 5 placed 2 and took one show with Sabercat.Eight out of 10 in the money.In retrospect all the horses were well placed in their races and had the screws tightened,after all he won the training title on the last day of the meet, the same one we are discussing.Btw I do look at past performances but in a slightly different way than they might teach a newbie in habdicapping 101.I have been doing this for a long time, and I know what races I have more success at and I know just using past performances without using added edges(learned over years)is a losing proposition for me.But my point is that we all should not follow like sheep and we should use our own insight or discoverd angles to be profitable over a longer term.I have been profitable over a one year period when I was betting every single day,so I am not just making all this up on the fly.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Yetive — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 21:35:42 GMT

Hi Steve,

Now that Optimizer has proven he should really only race on turf, his preferred surface (being by English Channel), you should also know that his great ancestress, Blitey, also produced the unraced Oh What a Dance -- dam of champion, Heavenly Prize. BTW -- I still maintain that you are racing's *best* writer, bar none.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Matthew W — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 20:59:00 GMT

Creative Cause will be the highest priced favorite in Derby History! Him, or Union Rags, will be 7-1 at the lowest! Dullahan, if he dirts, looks nice! "My horse", I'll Have Another, just went up to 10-1! More contenders than I have ever seen! Best proposition bet in racing history! Distance, field size, faster pace, and all those contenders--can you dig it?!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Linda in Texas — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 17:19:02 GMT

Steve, now you see why i won't go out on a limb and bet one over the other. I keep a handwritten list of every race and entrant with their numbers. As HRTV shows the parading i look over each horse, i write my thoughts at the bottom of each listing and then i watch the race. I must say that i had Dullahan,Hansen and Hero of Order but i was not 100 percent correct. Earlier i wrote out beside Daisy Devine's name "will win" and she did. And what really surprised even myself, after watching the horses parading to The Arkansas Derby, i wrote "Bode will win,Mike S aboard, i hope they have EMS near Baffert with oxygen." Wishful thinking that came true on his win. And Secret Circle his stablemate right in there at second. This was a really great day of racing. And after feeding my animals, i came back to watch more races out of Charles Town and good grief there was Pants on Fire, Tackleberry, Caixa Electronica and Uh Oh Bango and more racing for a million bucks. Caixa a 7 year old won coming from well back. What a nice way to end a super day of horse racing. Even Homeboy Kris won his race in the llth at Calder.

I saw no injuries but had a real scare watching Dullahan being pulled up and stopping way too quickly. Those types of stops are what injures a horse if he wasn't already. Hope he is okay today.

Now how does the Kentucky Derby

stack up? Reshuffle the results here then take into consideration the ones who did not race yesterday and try and come out with the winners. To me it is anyone's race to win. I think the handicappers have a real test in store to figure out where to place their money.

Almost forget another fave and It's Tricky won at Aqueduct in Race 9 and a Grade II. Love her name, said it before.

Thanks Steve hope you enjoyed the races. Will be waiting for your next words of wisdom.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Slew — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 17:14:58 GMT

As impressive as Bodemeister and Mike Smith were, and getting a 105 Beyer...does anyone realize the Bluegrass was faster..on poly yet?

It amazed me. But if they keep Mike on Bode, he's headed to my #1.

I think Hansen's biggest headache is his owner behaving like a total jerk. Enough antics! Let the horse be who he is, and get the hell out of his way!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

furlongs — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 14:05:10 GMT

Chief... How much you lose booking those bets on how many races a trainer wins at Oaklawn? If you would have looked at the racing form you would have seen going in no one was hotter at Oaklawn in the last 7 racing days then Asmussen/Nakatani. But then again that's right in order to pick winners your not suppose to read a form and look at numbers! Maybe draw straws or play tiddlywinks to come up with the winners...

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

furlongs — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 03:02:00 GMT

Draynay that Nehro is a real beast huh! LOL look for your N2X race and 3/5 before you cash on him...

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 01:20:28 GMT

Plodderman OK keep playing the horses and when they start going out of their stalls on their own we will know that they are in complete control of what they do.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

sceptre — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 01:00:37 GMT

Very impressed by Holy Candy's performance in Blue Grass. Had he not been bothered at the break he may have gotten to the Derby and been my pick. Similar to what happened last year to Alternation-and we see what kind of horse he's become.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Karen in Indiana — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:07:58 GMT

Steve, what is it with Kent Desormeaux pulling up horses so quickly after a race? I watched him wrestle Big Brown to a stop after the Preakness (not going to the Belmont, a sore point). It looked like he did the same thing with Dullahan. These aren't cars with brakes, it takes time to stop that much momentum. The way Dullahan was hopping around after the wire, I would be mad as heck if I was Dullahan's trainer.