Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Uncle Smiley — Sat, 05 May 2012 00:24:03 GMT

Believe You Can.

It is one step at a time for Rosie Napravnik.

But each step is a dance!

LJ took the right move, downgrading Mark Valeski for BYC

And put Rosie in the record books where she belongs!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Cassandra.Says — Wed, 02 May 2012 08:16:07 GMT

KELSTER:

I call 'em the way I SEE 'em. Tell me a horse winning a graded stakes under a masterful ride by Rosie and I'll take a look at it; something in the same class as Chantal's rides on the Dude or Emma-Jayne winning the Pan American on Rahy's Attorney.

Rosie is a hustling rider at bush league tracks and has earned a try at the tracks Chantal and Emma-Jayne ride on. That's all.

And let me assure you that ANY woman other than an owner has to work like a dog on the backstretch to even get a chance.

Were you around at the beginning when they had to sue to get a licence?

Some great cinematic moments along the way, like a tough little blonde saying to a reporter "Are you trying to say that some skinny teenage boy who's spent the day in a sweatbox is stronger than ME?"

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Uncle Smiley — Wed, 02 May 2012 01:00:25 GMT

So let it be written, so let it be done. Mark Valeski is withdrawn by his conditioner.

Sad to see that last year's pilot of Pants on Fire, is as of now without a mount next Saturday in Kentucky.

Next year, Rosie, next year.

Unless, nah, this is horse racing... Miracles never happen.

Uncle Smiley

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Kelly Wietsma — Tue, 01 May 2012 13:01:45 GMT

Cassandra.Says...WOW...What planet have you been living on? Rosie is ranked 9th on national leader board. Wilson 115 and Sutherland 132. Rosie winning at 20% clip and in the money 56%! Wilson 10% and 40% and Sutherland 11% and 36%. Get a grip!!! NO COMPARISON!!!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Uncle Smiley — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:35:10 GMT

Happy Ticket,

My seniment follows the first paragraph of your last post. Rosie N, on Mark Valeski, what a wonderful win, should the racing gods so allow.

She is brave, experienced in difficulty, and tough.

PS.. If this sport has a hero, Michael Matz is one of them

Uncle Smiley

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 01 May 2012 00:05:45 GMT

I love Larry Jones too, in my top five favorite trainers group. I get a kick out of how he rides his horses, yep, by the time the jock gets up the colts have it easy! I've been saying all along that Valeski could sneak right in there to show in the money. I hope the human Mark Valeski gets to go to Churchill to see his namesake run.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

robinm — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 22:26:37 GMT

Interesting comment from happyticket, not a fan of Union Rags trainer. I've rarely heard anything negative about Michael Matz; in fact I can't recall ever hearing any negative comments, quite the opposite.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

slewofdamascus1 — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 22:15:35 GMT

My case for Trinniberg was way too long, huh? :) I respect your perrogative. I thought Trinniberg deserves something positive said about his chances, I believe there are many in the field less-deserving than he. He's coming off two graded-stakes victories (with ease). The DRF's "KD Top Twenty" is being merciless in their snarky attack, and totally beyond the pale in my book. The connections do not deserve that kind of disrespect. They trained last years' New York Bred Champion. I hope you will write something appropriate about his entry. I truly believe that if the perfect storm develops, he's 10-1 to wire the field, maybe less. This colt does not resemble his 2yo self, who was far from being a disgrace.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

happyticket — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 15:31:11 GMT

I really like MV, and I like him even more with Rosie in the irons. It would be history if her and MV could take home the roses. Roses for Rosie-she deserves the opportunity to earn them. She has worked extremely hard in her career...she is a fighter with guts, a big heart, with the drive, passion, and intelligence to get her and MV home. Her, MV, and Larry J. are my feel good story and underdog pick. I got a soft spot for them underdogs.

I can't recall a derby in the last 10years that had more than 3 top contenders. This year we have several big horses competing--so exciting. Some of my favorites are Hansen because of his guts, beauty, and spunk, Gemologist--he is just so talented and brilliant just like his daddy. Creative Cause: very intelligent horse with personality. I have a good time watching this horse in his works, I like to watch his ears and can tell he is very pleased to do his job and toy with his riders. I'll have another: this guy is gutsy and gives it his all every time. Liaison: this horse has had it kind of ruff, that one race where he about went down has seemed to cramp his style a bit but I still think he is a good horse he just needs to get over what happened, but he wont forget it and we will see if he can over come that in the derby. Its either going to make him a man or break him. Union Rags: I like the horse, but I am not a fan of his trainer, but I will cheer on the horse.

I like all of the horses, good luck to all and a safe trip for all the jockeys and horses.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 14:46:37 GMT

I'm finding it hard to get enthused about a trainer who uses a 180-lb. exercise rider when he wants a fast work.

Rosie the best ever? I think not. I watched three videos just to look at her ride, and her horse came out of the gate sideways in all three. Her home track is a small pond. My vote would go to Chantal Sutherland or Emma-Jayne Wilson.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Don from PA/DE — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:54:10 GMT

Thanks again SH, nice scoop, I agree that LJ is a true horseperson, experiencing he and his wife at DP for years,being stabled next to Giacomo before the past KD and being a mystery is quite funny and interesting to me, typical I guess..if LJ runs MV he

does a chance of hitting the board, especially with Rosie, but yet again,so does anyone, I wish them well....but do feel "Gem" will be sparkling in winners circle

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

slewofdamascus1 — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 07:36:04 GMT

Nicely-penned story (as usual). This man did a heck of a job with Hard Spun. I have not looked closely at Valeski's races, so I can't comment on his chances. I would, however, like to comment on a topic that has been percollating in my mind ever since I watched the Bay Shore Stakes and really analyzed the performance of the winner.

According to all of the mainstream weather prognosticators, there is a 30% chance of isolated showers on Saturday. As a fan, I would prefer dry weather. As a handicapper, and as someone with the muscle memory of having picked Go For Gin in the 1994 Kentucky Derby, I am wishing for a sloppy track similar to the one that occurred 18 years ago when Gin upset the field wire-to-wire. Some will be surprised to know that Gin ran a sub 23 openning quarter that day when pressed by a long-forgotten competitor, but that's what it took to establish control. Peace Rules proved over and over that fast openning quarters are not an anathema to winning long distance races, just as Gin did 18 years ago this week. What matters is getting control and relaxing for the 2nd and 3rd quarters, if possible.

Much has been written about Trinniberg as a no-hoper in the Kentucky Derby and as a spoiler only. Even though I am a fan of Trinniberg since last season as a 2yo (born out of my love for his stablemate - "New York bred" Champion of the Year for 2011 - Giant Ryan), I concurred with this line of thinking, initially. After all, I am a handicapper who understands the game; going from 7 furlongs to a mile and a quarter with no two-turn experience is not a preferred method of winning trainers. But then I watched the Bayshore and I saw something I wasn't expecting to see: a horse who could actually outrun his expectations. Once I made that determination, I had to ask myself some serious questions about the circumstances he was likely to face in that race. Just because he might have the ability to run farther than some believe doesn't mean he's a contender in the Kentucky Derby. He needs a set of circumstances to line up - a perfect storm - to have any chance of pulling off this miracle.

It was clear after the Swale Stakes at GP that Trinni was a new horse this season. Prior to that race, my thinking was that taking the blinkers off that he had worn for all of his 2yo races was a sign that this colt had made great strides since October 2011. The results did not betray that line of thinking. And the Bayshore Stakes absolutely stamped Trinni as one of the top 3yo sprinters in North America, one of the top 3yos period.

When I compare his advancment to the advancement of other Kentucky Derby starters from 2yos to 3yos, he is actually one of the few who have improved markedly. The runners from the now-famous Breeder's Cup Juvenille - while confirming the form from that much-ballyhooed race - have not exactly leapt forward in their speed figures. They have maintained good form, but none has stamped themselves as can't-miss Derby winners through scintillating performances. Let's be honest - there has been only one scintillating performance, and that dude from Cali never raced as a 2yo, which - hello? - is a problem, a big problem if he's going to be the favorite or thereabouts. He's never faced anything remotely close to the experiences that await him on Derby Day, not to mention that he's a colt with a history of getting warm prior to his races. Curlin could only manage 3rd, and I reckon that Curlin was further along, experience-wise, at least.

So, Trinni has that in his favor; he's a kind of "now" horse. But because he's stretching out for the first time, he needs more help. He may be receiving that as we speak from the hype that has surrounded his entry. It is well understood, through the results of the Giacamo race and others just like it (Monarchos race), that anyone who challenges Trinni and forces the pace will have set themselves up - and anyone close to a "hot" pace - for an unpleasant result. Now, this is important, as a corralary to that: remember, nobody thinks Trinni can make the distance, regardless of what happens pace-wise and that includes all the other trainers, especially those who stand to lose the most by challenging his position as the pacesetter. Therefore, it is likely that Trinniberg will be left to his own devices in this race, believe it or not. Let me say that again: It is a distinct probability that Trinniberg will be allowed to make his own race after the first quarter. At this point in my thinking, I am getting excited because I can see the potential for a perfect storm developing. The final circumstance that is required, in my mind, is a sloppy track.

While many will look at Trinniberg's flop in the Breeder's Cup Juvenille Sprint as reason to believe he will not handle the off going, that is simply not the case as far as I'm concerned. Just prior to that race, Trinniberg posted a bullet 48 and 1 workout (best of 22) in the full-on slop at Chruchill. His trainer made the following remark that day last October (from a bloodhorse article): "That’s why we had no problem working him today, because we know he loves it,” Parbhoo said of Trinniberg, who finished second in the Sept. 5 Three Chimneys Hopeful (gr. I) on a sloppy track. “I thought he breezed well this morning.” They "know" he loves it.

It's well known that a sloppy track is almost always speed-favoring because it is almost always sealed to protect the integrity of the course. If rain comes to Churchill this saturday, and its slated to rain early and/or late, I expect the track to be sealed, no question.

Go For Gin's fractions that day 18 years ago - though fast early - were pedestrian through the middle and late stages, he sailed through a 47 and change half, a 1-11 and change 3-quaters, and he glided home, never challenged. While Trinniberg has never raced beyond 7 furlongs, he has a strong, classy foundation at two. His dosage is under 4.0. But that last race really won me over as it relates to his current form. If one watched that last race, one will see many things that are rather startling. He ran his final sixteenth in just under 12 seconds and it was faster than his penultimate sixteenth which was a shade over 12; he was actually pulling away again at the wire from his nearest competitor, who was under a strong drive and heavy pressure. As a handicapper, whenever I see a horse who runs his last sixteenth fasther than the previous (or quarter fractions, respectively) - I take a serious note. That can be a powerful indicator of readieness and "top" form. When one watches the head-on of the stretch drive, one will see a big stout colt who is not shortenning stride at all, nor coming off his correct lead, while his competitors are being flogged for every ounce of energy they have to give, to no avail. He toyed with the field.

Meanwhile, Trinniberg won the race under a mild hand ride, completely unchallenged. His gallop out was tremendous and I'm not just saying that, he was flying. When they turned him around to bring him back he quickly broke into a gallop and he wouldn't have blown out a match. This is what made me ponder the circumstances that would be needed to give him a punter's chance to shock the world in 2012. I believe I have laid those out. In my opinion, the two colts with the best last race prior to this derby are Bodemeister (no surprise) and Trinniberg (mild surprise, at least, I would imagine). One will be 3-1 or so and likely favorited. The other will be 50-1, and allowed to make his own race. Hmmmmm......

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

an ole railbird — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 03:45:12 GMT

my hats off to larry jones, for being a hands on trainer. it says a lot for a guy ,when he takes onthe task of galloping the horses that he trains.i always did a lot of it myself. because i could make a horse go like i wanted ,easier than i could explain it to someoneelse. but an ole drinking buddy & some sort of a mentoir ,who had been vory sucessful jockey& retired to be a sucessful trainer, gave me this advice." riddem all you want, but you will never become as good as you can be until you learn to quit second guessing your jockey. when you are a trainer you train, you train. when you are a jockey ,you ride races. damn few people can do both." i am quoteing new. mexicos own son ,mr. billy powell. he set a good example for a lot of us. i willgo back to being "an ole railbird.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

kincsem — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 02:57:18 GMT

Go Rosie! She WILL win a Derby, it's only a matter of time. Best female jockey, ever!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Oldie — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 02:06:33 GMT

Steve, interesting piece, along with the companion BH Staff article quoting Larry Jones saying the colt seems to have recently realized he's a race horse. I took special note of what Jones said about his exercise riders, and hope they do as well, if they want to ride the good horses :)

It sounds as if the owner and trainer are trying to make the right decision for their horse, which I appreciate as do most fans of the TC races and the KD in particular - I hate reading post-race reports that say half the field didn't belong and "only" got in on earnings, mainly because it diminishes the performance of the horses who finish well, but also because it diminishes the race itself.

It sounds like we had better pay attention to Mark Valeski if he goes. Thanks for your valuable insight. As always, top of my list.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Mike Monarchos — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 01:42:48 GMT

Great article Steve! Like I've posted before, Mark Valeski is one colt that won't have a problem carrying 126 pounds. After carrying Larry Jones around Churchill it will be nothing to carry Rosie. I'm looking forward to his work tomorrow. He barely lost to El Padrino, and El is one of my favorites. Although, I must admit I wasn't impressed with his 4 furlong work at Palm Meadows on a muddy track this morning in :53 and change. El Padrino is supposed to like an off track. Mark Valeski has the advantage over him by being at Churchill.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 01:04:47 GMT

If Larry Jones likes what he sees Monday then certainly Mark Valeski belongs. We know he's a gamer, and if you toss his last, his other numbers stack up well against most of these. It's a tough group but Valeski is definiely capable of an in the money finish. Didn't Bluegrass Cat lose a shoe in his final prep in 2006? So he was dismissed at high odds and came in second to Barbaro I believe. Normally you want to see a really strong performance in their final prep, and usually a second will suffice but the numbers aren't very strong in Valeski's final prep, but when they have an excuse like he did you can toss it and go by the other numbers and gameness. This would not be a case of Derby Fever as some entries are over the years, in my opinion.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Uncle Smiley — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 00:41:02 GMT

MV... A sleeper with a firecracker in the irons...I shall leave it to you experts...

Across the board...

There is great potential...

Uncle Smiley

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 23:38:51 GMT

The performance of Rousing Sermon in the Louisiana Derby (3rd, 1 1/2 lengths behind Mark Valeski) indicates just how poor this field was. Rousing Sermon had not been close to the winners in his stakes runs at 3 in California. Other horses who did not win their stakes attempts in California cleaned up in Arkansas. Neither of these circuits was up to par this year; I can't see any horse that trained in either place winning in Kentucky and doubt any will hit the board.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Remember Mark Valeski?

robinm — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 23:35:45 GMT

Thanks for the great article Steve.

I love Larry Jones and I love Mark Valeski. I think he's got a great chance, but I think it's awesome his connections won't send him unless he is "better than ever". I wish more owners/trainers felt the same!