Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

JayJay — Wed, 02 May 2012 05:55:52 GMT

I can't wait for the post draws tomorrow, hopefully it'll help me solidify my current pick. If not, I'll need to get Creative and find a Gem with Long Legs. I may ask the Godfather for help but I'll probably just end up getting a Sermon. I need to slow down and think about this more, maybe Have Another while watching "doo wop" video by Hansen. Finding the real Alpha, the Prospective Meister from this field is tough, need to watch the post parade to see who will Take Charge to Optimize my chances. I know for sure that this is not going to be a Dull race, a Union of the best colts guarantees an exciting race. I may have to Liaise with other folks who Nose more. I need to find the closers who will cut through the tiring field like a light Saber, not like an ice Berg drifting in the ocean. I just hope that when I'm Done Talking my Went The Day Well. Good Luck ALL!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Bill Rinker — Wed, 02 May 2012 05:29:29 GMT

Hi Steve, great article and loved those pics. I'm not sure this is the appropriate time or place but I thought I'd throw this out to see what perception you and your reader blogers might have on the subject of the Derby's number of entrants. I love watching all the preliminary stakes and allowance races at two and three, and all the anticipation that goes along with the process of drawing in. It's intriguing and at times somewhat bitter sweet to watch these youngsters develope and hopefully move forward in their racing careers. As we get closer and closer to race day the questions arise as to who the winner might be and why? However, in addition to the formula of breeding, background, and form, there lurks the perplexity of the size of the field. I've always thought that this takes some of the luster off the out come of the race, in terms of jeopardizing it's integrity (that is the race itself not the individual winner ). As we all know sometimes luck apears to have a deciding effect on racing, and hopefully when it happens it's a good thing. But when racing luck goes bad it can be tragic and heart breaking. In my personal love of racing I am not that naive to believe that everything has a pleasantly predictable outcome but I would also like to think that we can have a reasonable amount of control in some areas. So in the realm of excitement, prestige and economic gain are we setting the bar a little to high for this coveted title of Kentucky Derby winner. I have great respect for all of the trainers that are represented in this years Derby. I am relatively new to racing by comparsion to so many in the field but I truly love watching, working and studying Thoroughbred Horses. Listening to and reading what others have to say is enjoyable and educational most of the time. But in the end you form your own opinion and hope your right. Some of the things on my mind when considering the Derby outcome have been the number of horses in the race in relation to their back ground. How many races they had run, and what they went through in those races, what the trainers background entailed, who would be in the irons, and many other questions as well. So if at all possible here's one more question that I'd like to know your thoughts on. Can a world renowned race that has been coined "a crap shoot" by so many of it's most brilliant participants be considered safe with such a large number of entrants, or has the perception of reality in regard to this become somewhat overcome by "Derby Fever"?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Bigtex — Tue, 01 May 2012 21:31:57 GMT

Well, I have no idea which way to go on EX, TRI, and SPR, yet.

However, the 4 longest shots on the board will get my play, you can take that to the bank.

Is Draynay ok since Mark Valeski was withdrawn???

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

PickingTheDerbyWinnerSomeday — Tue, 01 May 2012 18:11:09 GMT

Steve

Would appreciate your thoughts on the looks of TCI. He should be arriving at his barn any minute. He will be in the $$ if the post draw is right.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

aspradling — Tue, 01 May 2012 18:04:15 GMT

Hi Cassandra, you may wish to look at our Derby prep-list page here...

www.bloodhorse.com/.../2012

Hope this might help!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 01 May 2012 17:24:27 GMT

BODEMEISTER:

When the conviction developed that a horse would never win the Derby if unraced at two, the competition was almost entirely horses with much more experience than our current field. No hard-knocking, consistent horses with infinite bottom will be in the lineup. Point to Bode.

Looking at his four starts in order, his rate of improvement is dazzling. In his first, he tracked, but couldn't close on, American Act. In his third, he gave American Act the rail and parked on his flank, putting him away on the turn (AA finished 7th). The Arkansas Derby showed another great leap forward, and he looks to me like a much fitter horse than the one Creative Cause edged past.

Rain? Another point to Bode, I think. He'll be well able to avoid a faceful of mud. Unless I'll Have Another says "Here's mud in your eye." (Sorry.)

I can't ascribe Mine That Bird's mud form to Dullahan; they're too different physically. Unless -- anybody seen their feet? Flat soles?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 01 May 2012 17:08:53 GMT

Steve, I think we need a column and a board devoted to "If The Rains Come."

It would be nice to get a peak at their feet. Maybe you could ask?

In general, while I enjoy watching a horse striding "long and low as a Southren houn'" it's not key for me, as a horse breathes with its stride, and short, quick strides mean more oxygen going in. Also mean more balance and confidence in the mud.

We've seen several prima donna performances from our contenders, and I would not be surprised to see some "Don't wanna" reactions from some fancied horses if the track is slick.

I can also imagined Hansen airing with his quick "flick, flick" stride and coming back with his coat unsullied -- at least, unsullied by anything not applied by human hands.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

twiggy — Tue, 01 May 2012 17:05:32 GMT

Union Rags has Barbaro's spirit with him and he will be the winner of the Derby! Rooting for him and Michael Matz all the way!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:31:28 GMT

All I can say is, "Handsome is as handsome does."

A human with a body-builder physique is rarely the Olympic champion in weight-lifting. Remember the Soviet super-heavy-weight champion (Munich and Montreal) Alekseyev? With his pot belly? (All muscle, they say, giving him a lot of stability.)

While a shining coat and bright eye indicate health, size, beauty, and muscle bulk need not indicate superior ability. Saarland was gorgeous. Alydar was larger, bulkier and caught the eye more than Affirmed did. Picking the horse who looks like 'a beast' can lead you to ignore a superior athlete.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Bill Two — Tue, 01 May 2012 15:27:26 GMT

Interesting insights you give us, Steve. I'm really intrigued with I'll Have Another. This is a horse that has always been underestimated and I'm sure he'll be double digits on Derby Day, but the way he's training over the CD strip tells me he is very much alive and warrants some of my filthy lucre. I'm eagerly looking foreward to your next installment.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Sue MacGray — Tue, 01 May 2012 13:37:47 GMT

Arrrrrgh, every time I think I've made up my mind, I read another column or a statistic, or see another picture and I'm completely befuddled again. As a good Scotch/Irish girl, I can't leave Dullahan off my list. Plus he looks fantastic and has a great turn of foot. I guess at this point, I'm liking Dullahan, UR, Gemologist, Bodemeister, I'll Have Another and Daddy Nose Best - in no particular order :( If it's muddy, I'm throwing El Padrino into the top three. It's so difficult because they all look so classy at this point and seem to all have a decent shot. I originally loved Hansen, but the competition is in much better form this year (as opposed to the juvenile BC) and I'm still not sure about the distance. Creative Cause looks great.... I just read the story about Trinniberg and now I'm getting tempted that way, too. Oh, well, looking forward to more of your comments later in the week (as well as the other experts here). Thanks Steve!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

ksweatman9 — Tue, 01 May 2012 13:17:56 GMT

Okay, let's say all these ponies are fit and ready, all of them are blessed with some degree of talent, all of them are capable of winning the roses. Now, the luck. Let's see who draws what post and how it will impact their trip. Then we wait and see what the weather will bring to Churchill Downs on May 5th, and if it will affect the track condition. After that, everyone who had their mind made up as to the outcome of the Derby may want to re-evaluate their decision. I'm only going to bet the longest odds on the board, just for fun. You would have to be clairvoyant to call this Derby, and that I'm not.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

JR — Tue, 01 May 2012 13:17:12 GMT

Hi Steve,

Great commentary and pictures. I'm real interested in what you think about Gem and El Padrino when they arrive considering their maintenance works at Palm Meadows, also TCI and Alpha after his problems.

Remember, you are the eyes and ears for those of us who can't be there. Thank You for all the great work you have done.

Kind Regards,

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Tiz Herself — Tue, 01 May 2012 13:12:37 GMT

Union Rags looks fantastic- have no doubt that if he runs his race he is the horse to beat. Creative Cause I worry if he gets into traffic as the same with Gemologist (who I love too!).

I have to ask as I am still learning about speed figures, which ones are more reliable? Bris or Beyers? (the difference?) thanks everyone. Or does DI and CD play as big a part as thought?... hadn't paid much attention to those because the lack of understanding them. I get the higher the number the faster the horse (?) thanks.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

willie1 — Tue, 01 May 2012 10:06:45 GMT

After all said and done I think Union Rags is the best 3 year old in the country and will take the Derby however my sentimental favourite is Hansen but I don't think he can make the distance I hope I'm wrong. I think he could sure turn into a great miler. Looking forward to Fri. for the Oaks and the Derby on Sat.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Johnno — Tue, 01 May 2012 09:58:55 GMT

Came from Australia for the Derby last year and was not disappointed. Wish I was there again this year. This is bloody hard race! But Union Rags seems to have ticked all the boxes and can go all the way, yet he will have to fight tooth and nail for the Roses. Here's to a great race. May the better horse win! Enjoy, my American mates.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

JayJay — Tue, 01 May 2012 08:56:06 GMT

One more thing, any chance you'll do a write up on the KY Oaks field ? I'd like to hear your opinion on the princesses as well. Thanks!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

JayJay — Tue, 01 May 2012 08:49:33 GMT

When I saw the title of the article from the TCM home page, I thought.. "YES! Finally, Steve's going to help me get an idea who's doing well" lol. Well... I am glad to join you and your team with my swimming brain. This is a tough bunch to handicap. I feel that, more so than in the past, the post position draws will be a major factor. After reading this, I feel like all the horses are evenly matched and that's very irritating (in a fun way of course.) It's a great challenge to handicap this field and if I'm able to pick two horses hitting the board, I'd be satisfied even if means I didn't the trifecta. I hope I hit the tri though, even if the first three favorites hit the board, the trifecta will be a signer.

I'm looking forward to your thoughts on Gemologist specially, and El Padrino who before the Florida Derby was my top horse. I'm not too excited to jump back on him until I see him in the post parade and of course hear what you think of him when he gets there. The other horse I'm interested in is Daddy Long Legs. Hopefully he ships well. Thanks for the great insights.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

robinm — Tue, 01 May 2012 05:48:07 GMT

Love the bathing pic of Rags. You can see clearly from his conformation why this colt has such a ground-covering stride. Short back, relative to his underline, and long forearms. He also has a great shoulder. Physically, he is hard to fault. Interestingly, white in the eye is supposed to indicate a difficult disposition. I haven't heard whether or not this is true of UR.

Maybe Steve has some knack for making every horse he photos look great, but if these colts run to their looks, we are in for a treat.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Matthew W — Tue, 01 May 2012 05:40:15 GMT

Steve the biggest bet I have ever made was a win/place bet on Tabasco Cat in The Derby--where he finished 5th or 6th in the slop, before his Preakness/Belmont routs....now I am about to break my record on I'll Have Another, who has compelled me to dig out some Benjamins for Saturday--I became intrigued after The Lewis, where his fractional times were unbelievable, when you compared them to other good (older) horses who ran that Feb 4th day--the subsequent work on Big Cap Day, before the crowd, was startling! He was waiting, ears moving forward/backward as if to say "I'm ready when you are" to the jock--head low, along with the color, looking like Affirmed, this guy uses minimum energy and is push-button! Mr O'Neil has developed horses to get more distance--nice allowance horses like Sky Jack and Lava Man, he won many 1 1/4 races with them, Gr 1 at that, and I'll Have Another has been tested by Creative Cause, he can battle, rate, has speed, and his female family is chock full of stamina--factor the unknown jock, the relatively unknown trainer (!), and the contender-laden field--you have a 10-1 longshot! Thanks for the observations, I'll be reading your columns daily, keeping my fingers crossed for 'Nuther, I think he might be a special one!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Draynay — Tue, 01 May 2012 04:48:36 GMT

Union wins and Bode will not hit the board.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Shelby's Best Pal — Tue, 01 May 2012 04:39:12 GMT

Wonderful comments and beautiful photos! I'm excited!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

Davids — Tue, 01 May 2012 03:44:47 GMT

Steve, for me the only way of splitting half the field is going to be the post position draw. Then again, what if they all get reasonable draws?

Aesthetically, there is not much between them either but Union Rags has a dominating presence/charisma and I'll Have Another looks spectacular. Mind you, it's not often that the prettiest horse that wins the roses.

Seems as though its going to be quite warm on Derby Day, that may just what a calm horse like El Padrino needs.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

tjconway — Tue, 01 May 2012 03:08:22 GMT

1) Alpha

2) Gemologist

3) Bodemeister

Remember folks, were talking 126 lbs.!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Early Observations

fuzzbert — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:52:32 GMT

I'm picking Union Rags, Gemologist, Dullahan, and Bodemeister. Of course any of the other 16 could win it too. Whoever does win, will be the best horse running his best race on that day. To all the contenders, may they stay safe and run sound. Good luck to all the bloggers.