Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

zarvona — Mon, 07 May 2012 18:30:25 GMT

MARIO "THE ICE MAN" GUTIERRREZ

Congrats to J. Paul Reddam & connections and to

Doug F. O'Neill &

"The Ice Man"

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Linda in Texas — Mon, 07 May 2012 14:58:40 GMT

Steve playing straight man for Lenny was funny, i did not get to watch it until after the Derby. Still funny.

I am so glad that Bloodhorse had a much bigger presence at The Kentucky Derby this year. Thanks from a devoted fan. I check out Bloodhorse.com before i check my pulse! Every morning. And it is the last thing i check before turning off my computer at night.

Dr. Drunkinbum, very true words nicely written about California Horses. Maybe they will get some respect now that a male horse is spearheading with a Kentucky Derby win. But i doubt it. Some can even manage to find negativity in a Flower Alley! Pardon the pun. I believe i am right that out of the top 6 horses, 4 were from CALIFORNIA.

Re: Baffert, whom i do like, it takes a pretty serious uncontrollable and unexpected setback for most to realize how terribly delicate the fine line is between life and the other word. Baffert should be proud that Bode ran like the wind, set the pace and was super.

I'll Have Another was awesome to

catch him, i never thought he was going to do it as i sat in amazement watching him overtake Bodemeister. I'll Have Another has one heck of a long beautiful stride. Bode came back pristine and I'll Have Another was covered in grit and dirt. He wanted that wire and had a bit left in his tank. Amazing.

Y para Mario Gutierrez, gran carrera de caballos, fantastico viaje!

Team O'Neill, Doug and Dennis, be proud. You all just might be on to something as you are obviously doing everything right!

And thanks again Steve. You are a real trooper and i hope you realize just how much you bring to all of us with your knowledge of this supreme sport.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

ksweatman9 — Mon, 07 May 2012 13:28:52 GMT

Some folks are actually blaming Mike Smith for Bodemeister's loss. He did as he was told by Baffert, that's my understanding. If they want to blame someone, they should blame the connections of Trinniberg for throwing him in the mix. Hansen and Bode were like a couple of pit bulls chasing a rabbit. Hansen was so tired he faded into the middle of the pack. Bodemeister had enough stamina to hang on for second, but the rabbit chase probably cost him the race. Trinniberg put a spin on Derby 138, but I can't take anything away from I'll Have Another. WHY do some of these Derby winners have such stupid names? If you thought there was even a remote possibility that your horse could win the Kentucky Derby, would you tack a name on him like I'll Have Another? Yuck. Next year I'm going to bet on the horse with the dumbest name.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Dee — Mon, 07 May 2012 04:10:28 GMT

Hope you enjoyed the Derby, Steve. The thing about betting is that it makes you focus on your horses and not be as excited/notice at first what a great race I'll Have Another ran. I was worried about that 19 hole, I thought he would wind up at the way back of the pack like Union Rags. Not to knock anything Julien did, but watching the overhead replay, I wish he had moved the horse earlier in the race when there was an open hole. Union Rags, if he is as good as everyone believes he is, should have more than one gear to be able to make a mid race move to be mid pack. Not any horse I can think of, not any of the greatest race horses, could have come from stone dead last and won (Zenyatta the queen of dead closers couldn't nip Blame on a track that favored come from behind trips).

Dullahan surprised me- but Bode, I'll Have Another, and Went the Day Well ran huge as well, so I am not too disappointed in my picks. Except Daddy Nose Best. Gemologist I didn't have in my trifectas, only my super, but I was surprised he didn't do better. Sad news on Take Charge Indy's ankle chip, but good in a way to hear that he ran so poorly because something went wrong and not lack of talent. Daddy Long Legs however, too bad I couldn't bet on last because I called it, all except him bouncing off the rail as he was coming to a dead stop. Everyone thought Trinniberg would gun to the lead and drop like a stone.

The Preakness will be exciting. I am really happy for the team and the winner, and unfortunately I chose to believe the now untrue myth of no one's ever won from the 19 hole.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Akita Girl — Mon, 07 May 2012 03:06:00 GMT

Big Congrats to I'll Have Another and his connections! How ironic that the only horse to finish the best out of the top 5 from last year's BCJ is the only one (from that top 5) that I didn't use. Another year-another Derby over-so quick...sigh...

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Steve Haskin — Mon, 07 May 2012 01:54:19 GMT

Thanks everyone for your comments. Sorry I was too busy to respond to them.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

trackjack — Sun, 06 May 2012 23:40:35 GMT

Steve:

from your article regarding the pedigree of I'll Have Another; "There is more stamina and class in this pedigree than any we can ever recall."

As your favorite pedigree you nailed it and he ran to it. Thanks for your insight. 'Ever', that's a powerful statement. Are we witnessing greatness?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Matthew W — Sun, 06 May 2012 19:34:21 GMT

Steve now it's time for the Haskin piece, and boy am I glad Doug O'Neil won his Derby--I thought he'd get second, but when he started gaining, I knew that little grinder would win! He'll get the Belmont--that race was made for him--beating Bodemeister would be tough to do in the Preakness--Bode would be favored, again--(did you notice the drop, from 6-1 to 4-1, just as the gates popped open, must've been in the millions...), but The O'Neil Story is a treasure trove of good story--Haskinize it, por favor--they deserve the very best---and their horse reminds me of Affirmed, in so many ways....

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 06 May 2012 18:09:34 GMT

Just like the song- and feel free to sing it- "California here we come, right back where I started from"!!!!! For you East Coast bias fanatics, remmember that Lucy, Fred, Ethyl, and Ricky sang it on their way to California from New York. It's time to get a clue- the trainers and weather in CA are the best. Baffert set the trend for excellence but the trainers in S. Cal are tremendous. Give them the horses and they will win. The bars across California are booming. Everyone is saying- "I'll Have Another."

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 06 May 2012 17:33:11 GMT

The Morning After

Baffert Ate Up Well- He actually had hay and oats- (oatmeal and a salad with alfalfa sprouts)

O'Neill Ate Up Well- He had a filet mignon, courtesy of the house with all of the trimmings and a cheesecake for dessert. Baffert would have won but he was afraid he'd have to eat The Meal of a Champion like O'Neill did.

Roman's Ate Up Well- He had a steak but it wasn't as good as O'Neill's.

Motion Ate Up Well- But he's not to the bottom of his feed bag(more to come from Went The Day Well, a strong and improving closer)

The rest of the trainers and horses shared a buffet of crow except for Creative Cause, Hansen, Union Rags, Rousing Sermon and Liaison who all were admirable in defeat and were all obseved at the "if only" table gobbling up the leftovers. On a side note- Bob Baffert is a changed man. Last year it would have been- "That sob, why didn't he know the fractions were too fast!!!!" This year it's "good job and it's OK." Amazing what an appreciation of life can do.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Bill Two — Sun, 06 May 2012 11:55:40 GMT

Give me some of that shock therapy that I'll Have Another had. Wow.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

furlongs — Sun, 06 May 2012 01:51:58 GMT

Draynay,

What did your Oaks/Derby double pay?? Oh that's right you didn't have it, I did... but then again you are the Derby Master. Nice call on Bode not hitting the board and nice job of your 6 horses in that box one did run 3rd! LOL Your a complete joke dude. Didn't cash on my Ex's or Tri's but I did cash in the race for $730!! But I am sure you did better then me... God why didn't I just $5 box my 5 horses from my Oaks/Derby Double!! Oh well still had a great time but man it was humid!!!! Good luck everyone at the windows...

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

happyticket — Sun, 06 May 2012 01:34:10 GMT

Wow, what was with the cheap shot done buy the media on Dr. Hansen on derby day coverage prior to the derby. That was not very nice. Over half of that clip was negative. I just think that the media could have been more positive, even if they were slightly truthful, that just didn't 'paint' a very pretty picture for horse racing.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Melanie — Sat, 05 May 2012 20:34:17 GMT

Nikki,

Yes, Slew was the only undefeated Triple Crown winner in history, so yes, he would have been unbeaten going into the Derby. Hansen traces back to Slew on the male side. I'm still hanging with Hansen - am hoping he'll take back with the speed to his inside, then take off through the stretch like he did in the Gotham. It's the Derby - anything is possible.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Age of Reason — Sat, 05 May 2012 20:15:32 GMT

Steve, what a wonderful Derby trail you have made this for all of us! Thanks so much for your wonderful insight!

Alright, so it's 2 and a half hours to post and I still can't figure this out. I've never been so confused about a race in my life; the Breeders Cup is way easier than this! But I don't want to be accused of pulling a KY Vet and posting my picks after the fact, so here's what I have right now: I'm looking at I'll Have Another, Gemologist and Take Charge Indy (no particular order) on top, with Union Rags and Alpha below those and perhaps Daddy Nose Best if the pace is below 1:11 for 6f. If Trinniberg or Daddy Long Legs win I'll never make a prediction again (lol), but best wishes to all! :)

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Matt Helm — Sat, 05 May 2012 19:19:48 GMT

12:15 west coast time.Union Rags inhales this field in mid stretch.This is the day he has been waiting for.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Giddyup — Sat, 05 May 2012 18:18:55 GMT

Good analysis Steve. I find it interesting that so much is being made of the "shoe issue" that Creative Cause had but no mention is being made of the shock therapy that I'll Have Another had. I came to the same conclusion as you that Dullham was the best value play but that was assuming the track was fast. On an off track I expect Bodemeister to just make the lead and use his superior speed to leave everyone behind. Good luck and a safe trip to all.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Chills on — Sat, 05 May 2012 15:00:26 GMT

After much thought and very little serious handicapping background but for a love of this sport,I kept my picks same and put a straight two buck tri on via my sis (lucky! And great hat!) 1. Daddy knows best 2. Take charge Indy 3. Gemologist. Note that I decided this before bode exploded and last preps run. Just found reasons to discount them all. Happy Derby Day!!!!!!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Shelby's Best Pal — Sat, 05 May 2012 13:51:08 GMT

Your weekly Derby Dozen has been so great and I want to thank you for your wonderful writing, amusing anecdotes, and historical perspectives. I am all over the place trying to pick this year's Derby winner too but you have made it interesting and fun. And I have loved, loved, loved your photographs. Happy Derby Day with thanks.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Stones — Sat, 05 May 2012 13:21:12 GMT

Bodemeister

El Padrino

Alpha

Daddy Nose Best

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 05 May 2012 13:13:31 GMT

Amazing how unsubstantiated rumors have affected the support for a horse with one of the best records in the race, coming off the toughest circuit of the year.

None of you people, not even Mr. Haskin, say you know anything about Mike Harrington or his usual training methods. Yet, because he doesn't operate the way everyone expects him to, all of a sudden his is horse is a toss?

Excuse me, there is more than one way to train a racehorse. Mike Harrington is a 4th generation horseman and a VET (the horse doctor kind - he left active practice to train nearly 20 years ago). At age 71, he knows more about horses than all of the talking heads who are questioning him put together.

If he runs the horse, the horse is fine. Doc Harrington is not about to get carried away with Derby fever. To quote the Lousiville CJ:

'Harrington might skip the procession that some trainers say makes for an indelible Derby memory.

'"My main focus is being able to perform in the paddock and get the saddle on him. If the horse gets there 20 minutes before I do, what good am I going to be?"'

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

furlongs — Sat, 05 May 2012 12:09:13 GMT

Went the Day Well and Gemologists are the 2 horses I am keying in the first and second place spots of ex and tri's... also have Bode,Union,Gem,I'llhaveAnother & Went the day well in the OAKS/DERBY Double going so hopefully I hit that. Draynay when the last time you had a $29 horse to win going into a nice double without hitting the all button?? If Draynay knew anything he would have known Believe You Can worked faster then his super horse UNION on the same day and bet a horse that didn't a dot in the middle of it for once!! Only thing better then 6-5 is 4-5 right Dray! Good luck everyone...

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Point Given — Sat, 05 May 2012 11:39:54 GMT

Spending my last $40 on my superfecta.

(1)BODEMEISTER

(2)I'LL HAVE ANOTHER

(3)DADDY NOSE BEST

(4)CREATIVE CAUSE

Apollo, if you are out there some where and planning to watch the race today,take that hundred year old jinx and shove it. Bodemeister will be the next TC WINNER.Yes you hear it here first.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

zarvona — Sat, 05 May 2012 11:25:27 GMT

"Based on what we’ve seen over the course of the past three days, we have to give serious consideration to I’ll Have Another, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy, and Alpha,..."

Wow !!! its about time you came around! I think that about sums up my analysis going into last week. And, "Alpha" will be a more serious play come the BELMONT!! Track is favoring SPEED! that bodes well for "I'll Have Another", his problem will be getting to the top 6 by the final turn. Look out if he's there !!! And of course for "BodeBeyer". AND if Andrew Beyer is right, that should also aid "Daddy Knows Best". Notice this playa is still shying away from the FAB BC 4 !!! AS of 7:30 A.M. ...

And to borrow a phrase from Woodstock... "No Rain !! No Rain !! No Rain !!"

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Figuring it All Out...Not

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 05 May 2012 11:06:19 GMT

Good morning Steve. Thank you for all of your in training photo's from this past week. After the Oaks I noticed that the early odds on Alpha were 22-1. Keep him in your mix for sure, even with Maragh this horse looks live at 1 1/4.

My first play of the day is the 7th/8th double: Amazombie with Daisy Devine.

My next play will be the 10th/11th double: Turallure with Alpha, Dullahan, and Gemologist

KY Derby:

1)Alpha- His recent 59 2/5 workout suggests that he is sharp. He also has the highest Tomlinson Distance # in the field. I know he will like the 1 1/4 mile disatnce and he will be double digit odds. My concern is Maragh and why did Ramon choose to stick with Hansen. For such a high profile and quality group of horses, Darley/Godolphin really does not have a go to rider. I'll play him to WP and key him in my exotics.

2)Dullahan: At first I was not thrilled with his choice of turf to poly prep races. After watching the Bluegrass, this long and powerful looking colt seems to be turning it up a notch at the right time. I will also play him to WP and key him in my exotics.

3)Gemologist- An undefeated colt that has improved his speed figures in every start. The progression is there and he looks primed for a big run today. My concern with him is running back 3 weeks after his allowance win and now having to come back with another top effort. Can he get the distance?

4)Bodemeister- The obvious issue with him is coming back in 3 weeks after a 108 beyer figure. His price will be short and he might be compromised by the presence of Trinniberg and Hansen on the front end. Or he could be the biggest freak since 1882!

5)Union Rags- I wanted to place him higher, but I just can't get over him not being able to get by Reveron in the FL Derby. At the same time I know that it was a prep and the KY Derby is the ultimate goal. The inside post also made me place him lower. Julien will have to go from the start and is that really what Union Rags wants? Plus he always runs a beyer in the low to mid 90's.

6)Creative Cause/I'll Have Another- I can not seperate these two colts at all. They will be used in underneath spots in saver exactas. Creative Cause is a nice horse, I just think he is still green in the stretch for my liking. With I'll Have another he has huge breaks between races and a series of long works. Maybe the long works will help down the lane, I question his explosiveness when it counts.

Good luck to all!