Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Tiara Terces — Tue, 22 May 2012 14:19:29 GMT

Well, by this posting we've had another exciting race with the same two finishing in the same order, and the Triple Crown could become a reality. We've been disappointed before, but in hind sight, I'd say if the Bid couldn't get it done, the others who failed also were not anywhere as close to deserving the honor. In fact, treating these valuable animals with kid gloves, which is understandable, leaves all of them wanting in my opinion. When compared with previous Triple Crown winners, recent contenders have barely been tested. Secretariat was Horse of the Year as a two-year old. Seattle Slew was 6-6 before the Derby. Affirmed and Alydar had raced 6 times as two-year olds. (4-2 Affirmed). Alydar won by huge margins whenever he didn't face Affirmed and did win the Travers by DQ. IHA is a nice little horse with a great attitude and will to win. Mario is amazing: so humble and grateful and appreciative of the horse. O'Neill is not the ogre the press wants to make him. His last alleged "milkshake" was in 2010 after the horse finished EIGHTH! It does NOT enhance or detract from performance. What's in it? Bicarbonate of soda, sugar and electrolytes. It's like having a carbonated drink with electrolytes. Anyway, I hope we do have a Triple Crown Winner, but it does not make IHA compare with past winners through no fault of his own. He just hasn't had the necessary challenges to establish such greatness.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

El Kabong — Sun, 20 May 2012 02:25:20 GMT

Wow,

The first thing I thought was, there are racing gods and they are mindful. Hope, keep the faith. This horse is a runner. That was really a great race. I could not be more excited for the Belmont. Barkeep, another cookie for Mr. Reddaam! And Hope and Mr. ONeil. man this is fun.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Uncle Smiley — Tue, 15 May 2012 23:57:45 GMT

Gun Bow:

Liked your commentary, great Preakness ahead of us.

Your last paragraph sums it all up "what if, what hapens, just plain what"

That is why my Daddy had no room for horse racing.

Too many whats!

I like to say What's Up!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Greg R — Mon, 14 May 2012 06:03:30 GMT

"Bill Two" and "Joltman" :

Maybe Mario Gutierrez should tie a red flag to the rail at the point at which he should make his move! Well, at least, mentally! Make a clear mental note of exactly where the right pole is. That is what Calvin Borel should have done before riding Mine That Bird in the Belmont. If he had held up until the 5/16, MTB would have finished ahead of Dunkirk for the place and maybe challenged Summer Bird at the end.

Will be rooting for Mario, et al, to break the jinx.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

GunBow — Mon, 14 May 2012 02:56:48 GMT

Steve:

I agree, I'll Have Another has many of the attributes one looks for in a horse to make a deep Triple Crown run. Given he's already won 3 graded stakes this year, including 2 grade 1s, he should certainly be looked upon as the pro-tem leader of the crop.

I'll Have Another's physical tools are obvious; he has excellent tactical speed, nice cruising speed, and can carry his speed a distance. His speed allows him to work out good trips.

But what has become apparent in his last 2 races is that this is a horse with the ideal mentality, possessing the professionalism, kindness, and determination of an elite racehorse. I love how he is able to rate absolutely on cue, conserve energy, and then unleash this energy when asked. In the Derby, he settled calmly inside of Gemologist along the backstretch, not at all bothered by having that fairly good sized colt looming over him. No, I'll Have Another just bided his time, cooperating perfectly with Mario's correct assessment that Bodemeister was setting a stiff pace. Then, when I'll Have Another had to dig deep and reel in Bodemeister the final eighth, he displayed the same focus and courage he did when outdueling Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby.

With all this said, I still believe it more like that I'll Have Another will not win the Triple Crown. The first concern is the demands of 3 classic races in 5 weeks. We can project how a horse will stand up to the demands, but there's no way of really knowing until we see it. For me, the null hypothesis is that the horse in question will not be able to run 3 "A" races in 5 weeks. Simply, I believe it more likely a horse will regress in at least one of the races, or lose form completely, or suffer some injury than run 3 superior races over 3 different distances on 3 different surfaces against full fields.

As it concerns I'll Have Another specifically, this is a horse that doesn't exactly have a great foundation, having not started for 5+ months between August and February, then getting 2 further months off before running in early April. The fact that his connections were concerned about a bounce following the Lewis doesn't inspire amazing confidence that the horse can produce 4(SA Derby included) top efforts in a 2 month period.

To make matters worse, while the Derby winner is almost obliged to have to go on to the Preakness, the connections of other horses can take a step back, assess their horses, and determine if the Preakness, or the Belmont, or both, or neither is in their horse's best interests. Some of the Derby also-rans that bounced out of the race well and have a skills portfolio that fits historically with the Preakness will be back in two weeks to challenge. Others will be given an extra two weeks rest and be allowed 5 weeks between races when pointed just for the Belmont.

Should I'll Have Another get by the Preakness, he will have Dullahan and Union Rags among others waiting for him in New York. So, he's going to have to take Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Went the Day Well, and Hansen's best shot again next week before being confronted by some more well rested rivals in the Belmont.

And it's not like I'll Have Another has a large margin of error to work with. There were 4 horses within just 3 lengths of I'll Have another in the Derby. And while I believe the trips of some of these also-rans have been overdramatized, it would be difficult to write that they had better trips than I'll Have Another. What happens if I'll Have Another breaks slow, has to check, is too far off a slow pace or too close to a hot pace? What happens if he simply is slightly less sharp, or a rival slightly sharper than at Churchill? To win the Triple Crown, all these questions are going to have to go I'll Have Another's way, and statistically this is unlikely.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Geronimo2123 — Sat, 12 May 2012 17:54:04 GMT

Triplecrownkaren,

I share your concern on the "Milkshake Man", errr, "Alleged Milkshake Man." Alleged this time, that is...he has been nailed other times, although he swears on his kids (I am not making that up) he has never milkshaked a horse.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Geronimo2123 — Sat, 12 May 2012 17:51:10 GMT

"The other big question mark is how young Gutierrez will handle the trip? Will he know when to move and when to sit still on those endless turns? Or will he and the horse get lost out there? Remember, Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed all had some experience at Belmont - as did their jockeys. In fact all of the jockeys were intimately familiar with the track."

Bill Two.

Good points. One thing to remember, the horses since Citation that have won the Triple Crown have done so wire to wire in the Belmont Stakes. No need to worry about when to move, just go to the front. Which is what most of those jockets said, too. The easiest way to win a 12 furlong race with a typically slower pace when you have already won the Derby and Preakness is to go to the front and gallop the field around the track.

It even worked for Bold Forbes and he only won the Derby and could not even really get 12f!

Something to think about...but the fact that Big Brown or Smarty lost after being pulled off of the lead is hardly surprising. There are no big late moves in the Belmont Stakes...Even Big Red went wire to wire in the Belmont. It simply leaves too many things to chance to do it any other way. That way, if you simply cannot last, you go down valiantly like Funny Cide instead of in a bizarre like twist ala Big Brown.

But make no mistake, the next T/C winner we have, if we ever have another, will wire the Belmont Stakes like Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed all did. Pressure and speed duels notwithstanding...

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Karen in Texas — Sat, 12 May 2012 16:46:36 GMT

Whether it's personally coveted or not, the Woodlawn Vase is the most valuable trophy in sports. (That's actually been the subject of several board game questions for years.) It was crafted by Tiffany's and I think the current value is at least $4,000,000.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

steve from st louis — Sat, 12 May 2012 14:13:59 GMT

Alex, I would respectfully disagree that the Woodlawn Vase is the most coveted trophy in sports. My choice would be the Stanley Cup. But that's just me, as it is shared with 25 teammates with each getting some personal time. It even traveled to Russia in 1996 with the five Russian Red Wings and was paraded in front of millions of real Reds.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 11 May 2012 23:34:03 GMT

Here we are, same time as last year, looking to put the crown on top of another chestnut's head, this time Flower Alley's kid as I like to call him. I love him, he seems to have all the athleticism, the mind and awareness, knows where the finish line is and wants to get there, and ships well. Can't ask for much more. I agree with O'Neill about getting him to the venue weeks prior to the race, I've always stood for that. The more familiar with the surface the better, especially if he gets to Belmont. I'm sure O'Neill will be a catalyst in instructing Mario on Big Sandy, not to worry. Mario, as one blogger mentioned, watched all those tapes and I'm sure he will watch Belmont tapes galore and secure mounts there as well. Gotta conserve energy at Big Sandy and IHA's running style fits perfectly. Ok, hope they're polishing up the triple crown. I love the Woodlawn Vase, the Preakness trophy, the most coveted trophy in sports I believe, let IHA get that one first. But awaiting at Belmont as Steve says will be a rested Rags along now with a rested Dullahan. I want us to have a Triple Crown winner and be at Belmont for his coronation.

But for now, I gotta go eat some chocolate chip cookies, I've been craving them ever since Steve's "Cookie Monster" article!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 11 May 2012 22:07:56 GMT

I just had a milkshake earlier today, chocolate and it was delicious. Absolutely superb. So I don't get it. What's wrong with a good milkshake? Mine was one of the best I had in years. It might not have been quite as good as the malts I got in the malt shop when I was a kid but it was close. Remember those large metal containers that you kept filling up your glass with? And I don't care what anyone says, this is a really good crop of three year olds. We have Algorithms return to look forward to also. I'm glad Gemologist and Take Charge Indy had injury excuses in the Derby because their races were quite puzzling.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

shaban — Fri, 11 May 2012 22:05:50 GMT

What confuses me is that the Equibase numbers in the track program differ by up to 15 from the Beyer numbers in the form. And sometimes one horse has a better number than a second in the program but the second has a better number in the form. By the way, I don't know how many people played the whole weekend card, either at CD or somewhere else, but the hero of the weekend was Ghostzapper. His offspring kicked butt. I happened to hit the first one early Friday, decided to hop on the train, and won enough off him to cover my pitiful Derby bets. I've always been a sucker for a Rahy pedigree but Ghostzapper might be my new favorite.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

TerriZ — Fri, 11 May 2012 20:13:00 GMT

Changing the subject, has anyone interviewed Case Clay of Three Chimneys Farm? Three Chimneys went from losing the king (Dynaformer) of the farm to having the sire (Flower Alley) of the Derby winner in the course of a week.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

TerriZ — Fri, 11 May 2012 20:07:32 GMT

I just love to read about how O'Neil trains I'll Have Another. He gives him time to acclimate and adjust to each track. I don't know how any horse can be familiar with the track in just a few days. The horse can gallop how he wants to gallop rather than make him tense and possibly have a misstep.

And then I'll Have Another goes out with his mentor, Lava Man, who demonstrates how it is done.

I hope more trainers will learn from this.

The only negative things about the O'Neil group is their actions in the past with racing unfit claimers who broke down and possible milkshakes. Maybe it's good that this is all brought to the light. I hope O'Neil has learned his lesson and doesn't keep repeating his errors, unlike Rick Dutrow.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

SOUTHBENDFARM — Fri, 11 May 2012 19:21:29 GMT

Since Union Rags is not running in the Preakness, I'll Have Another should win this race easier than the Derby. I also have a feeling that Bodemeister won't run either. As For the Belmont, Union Rags wants nothing to do with 1 1/2 miles, neither does Hansen. Bodemeister has only 1 draw back at the 1 1/2 mile distance, and that is that he is out of a Storm Cat mare. That mare is a double copy mare though for the large heart, so maybe he got the Large heart and will relish the distance. His phenotype suggests he can get the distance. While the breeding of the Triple Crown Horses has improved for distance racing, the drawback that hinders our runners is the "so few starts" as mentioned earlier. That and the trainers runner horses in the Derby that have no shot...Trinniberg.... and the traffic jam that always happens on the 2nd turn. Notice all the Triple Crown winners came when the field was 14 or less horses. The Derby should return to the 1 gate and give racing a fair shot at a Triple Crown winner.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

ksweatman9 — Fri, 11 May 2012 19:09:01 GMT

Let the games begin, the horses that are skipping the preakness will have a leg up on I'll Have Another going into the Belmont. To snatch the 3rd jewel in the crown he'll have to overcome fatigue and being body sore to run his best at the longest distance, a real feat for any horse who isn't Secretariat. Up to the task, I'll Have Another? Win the Preakness first, then we'll see what you're made of. The long Belmont will either make you or break you. You know, the Belmont should be the first triple crown race, but then it wouldn't truly be a test of endurance, would it? It's not designed by flaw, it's designed by reason. Whether or not you sweep the triple IHA, come out of it safe and sound.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

UncleStosh — Fri, 11 May 2012 18:37:28 GMT

@mattheww - I could have written the exact post. The Bob Lewis was ahuge key race to me. IHA ran all the fractions and stopped the clock in 1:40 4/5ths. A month later CC runs the SanFelipe(1:41 4/5) at a slower pace of which he was 4 behind and came home slower and had a slower time only to get a 98 beyer upped to 102! after Bodes wins in arkansas! I had the Bob Lewis as a 105-108 and proffited for it. Also, IHA then validates he is the better horse head-to-head in the SA. Beyer has no clue. Add in that the Wood winner got a 98 for the most embarrassingly slow prep race of the year. If you look at the Wood winners the klast ten years, it is onbvious that any horse that stops the clock in 1:50 and change is not a Grade 1 caliber horse. That race was awful but because Beyer had the undefeated Gemologist rated so high, he gioves it a big score. I am stilll trying to figure it out as Broadway alibi ran a Mile two races earlier, set a legit pace, came home fast while being dialed down and she still would have had 14+ seconds to get another 1/8th and nip Gemologist. Yet he got a better Beyer figure than her. The Wood winner should hav egotten a 83-86 score. anyhow, point is that it is Andy Beyer who has lost his way. No Derby run in 2:01.83 is the second slowest derby in 30 years. Get a grip.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Matt Helm — Fri, 11 May 2012 18:17:49 GMT

Thanks TripleCrownKaren for keeping it real.Doug O'Neill is a personable and likable guy.But,he ain't squeaky clean either.People have fallen in love with IHA deservedly so.This reminds me of last year with AK.Team Valor wins the derby and suddenly Barry Irwin is the only stand up honest guy in the game.Winning Americas biggest race does not give any trainer or owner the moral high ground.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Shutterbug — Fri, 11 May 2012 18:15:00 GMT

The article people are referring to which discusses O'Neill's training methods is far from flattering. It is the third installment of the NY Times' expose on horseracing's underbelly... and it isn't pretty (especially the first which focuses on New Mexico's racetracks). I must admit that I have been virtually ignoring Doug's horses for years due to, as the NY Times puts it, their "tendency to breakdown", so for this reason alone I looked past I'll Have Another in the Robert B. Lewis stakes. The article even includes the worst possible indictment of O'Neill, the sad sad saga of Burna Dette.

But this year one can't help but notice the difference, the change in attitude, and improvement in Doug O'Neill. Last year he was evasive, as if he felt everyone was his enemy, whereas he started this year out smiling and beaming with pride and confidence. Then came the beatdown of Mr. Commons in the gr.1 Kilroe Mile by his claimer Willyconker, and now the emergence of the country's best 3yo I'll Have Another! I believe he is trying to put the negative stuff behind him and do everything the right way, as exemplified by his asking the advise of Hall of Fame trainers on how best to train I'll Have Another. In fact, I expect other trainers to take his lead and follow his blueprint (and Baffert's with Bode-ster) which will lead to even more future KY Derby contenders being kept lightly raced, further annoying the traditionists of the sport.

O'Neill's most brilliant training tactic with I'll Have Another is pairing him up with the legendary Lava Man. These two are very special horses, and this is a natural pairing.

Pertaining to the Belmont stakes, I would expect young super Mario to do his homework and come up with a gameplan, exactly like he did prior to the SA Derby when he watched race replays of every contender, and the KYDerby when he studied winning rides at the Museum.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 11 May 2012 17:58:25 GMT

TripleCrownKaren,

I don't play the races with enough frequency to know the ins and outs of trainers, so I can't take one side or another re O'Neill. However, in the article O'Neill mentions $250,000 in lawyers fees. If he has that money, he has the money to wage a marketing campaign, too.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

TripleCrownKaren — Fri, 11 May 2012 16:46:52 GMT

My only worry in this whole scenario is the "pending" issue O'Neill and the "milkshake" incident in California. Suppose he gets a suspension in CA....would Maryland and/or NY have to honor that? I know everyone thinks the trainer is Mr. Wonderful, but he's had numerous run ins regarding "substances" in horses he has trained. Not unlike Big Brown's trainer Mr. Dutrow. You have to worry about horse in their care and if they ARE actually doing what's in the best interest of their horses, who have NO SAY in the matter of how they are treated. OK....he was kind to Hope and all that....but it still doesn't erase past questionable behavior regarding the welfare of the very animals who are supplying him with his income. Stuff like this is what get "extremists" like PETA and the Feds looking over our shoulder. As Nick Zito says.....if we all run on just Hay, Oats and Water......THEN the playing field is level and SAFER for the horses and the Jockeys who put their lives on the line riding them.

I pray for safe trips for EVERY one of these horses every time the gates open. As a "rescuer" I see the damage done AFTER they've been "thrown away" for not running fast enough or winning enough.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

steve from st louis — Fri, 11 May 2012 16:44:53 GMT

Rusty, I hadn't read the NYTimes article so thanks for pointing out O'Neill in that poor light. In his defense, though, regarding horses breaking down compared to Motion--that isn't a fair comparison at all as O'Neill plays in the cheaper claiming theatre much more than Motion and O'Neill's stable is far inferior to Motion's in bloodlines. No defense of O'Neill though, especially when he swears on his children's eyes (?) that he has never "milked" a runner in his care.

Also, for a runner to win the Triple Crown, he has to be far and away head and shoulders ahead of his sophomore class, as Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed proved (Alydar not withstanding). And as Smarty Jones and Real Quiet proved in defeat, you have to have racing luck.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 11 May 2012 16:31:28 GMT

Cookies and milkshakes...

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

hank — Fri, 11 May 2012 16:23:13 GMT

Great comments Mr Haskins as usual, very dissapointed that Matz elected to skip Preakness, could of probably got his old jock back, and gave horse a chance to redeem himself, instead go back to home and complain about jock, The TCO2 charge makes things look a whole lot differrent,O'Neil says no but he took days in Illinois for it, Hope Bode wins, Baffert is the best trainer he may not have best horse but by far the best trainer, wish he had Union Rags. I twas really neat to stand on fence and watch Baffert in action, really a neat looking guy

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: I'll Have Another Triple Crown

MikeM — Fri, 11 May 2012 16:18:22 GMT

The reason guys like O'Neill and Dutrow survive is because there is no REAL penalty when they are caught. In fact they get rewarded as owners flock to their barns.