Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

deb — Wed, 16 May 2012 18:04:32 GMT

I agree, Mine that Bird was a super racehorse and respect should be given.

Loved your photo picks. Memories!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Bill in Atlanta — Wed, 16 May 2012 17:40:34 GMT

Steve,

Thank you for continuing to take the HIGH ROAD and the POSITIVE side of not just the chase for the TC, but just horse racing in general. As you have said so many times, this entire thing is supposed to be fun! Whether a fan likes or dislikes IHA, how refreshing is it for the entire IHA crew (owner, trainer, jockey, team) to look at their great fortune and hard work.....as HAVING A GREAT TIME! For the naysayers like KY VET and others that respond here with "this weak group of 3 yr olds" and "there are no exceptional horses.....", they need to get a life and try to enjoy the great animals and people that make up our sport.

I was at Churchill Downs last week with 163,000 of my best friends and it was a great time! I'm on my way to Pimlico now. Hope to see you there to watch these magnificent horse and jockeys!

Bill in Atlanta

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Davids — Tue, 15 May 2012 07:12:31 GMT

Greg R, I appreciated your point and agree with what you wrote. However, what I was attempting to further impress was how 'US bloodlines' seem to manage to run without the use of furosemide outside the USA.

By the way, I am not a maven on Australian horse racing, members of my family live there so I have a reasonable knowledge on the racing scene there.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

ksweatman9 — Mon, 14 May 2012 22:43:41 GMT

I thought from the beginning that Hansen would've done well had he skipped the Derby and went to the Preakness a fresh horse. That not being the case, I'm happy his connections are thinking of his welfare and letting him rest a bit before pointing him to a race more suited to his style. I'm confident that they will find the gorgeous colt's comfort zone and he will do just fine. What I hate is, now 3 of my very favorite ponies will probably be sharing the same field, Jackson Bend, Caleb's Posse and Hansen. Love them all, so what do I wish for, a 3 way tie? I think Hansen can rate and go a bit more than a mile. They'll just have to work with him, they have time. He was terrific in the Gotham, he can do it, but it's smart to cut his distance and let Hansen tell us what's best for him. I applaud the doctor for doing the right thing. Got to throw this comment in. MINE THAT BIRD was not a fluke in the Derby. His Derby win was more impressive than any other of recent memory, including the most recent. Then Bird came back for a 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont. All flukes? Sure. The folks who insist that Mine that Bird just didn't happen are the same people who had a negative opinion of Zenyatta when she was dominating the track. Yes, there are folks like that. What did Super Saver do other than win the roses? Big Brown didn't even really "finish" the Belmont, his run was so bad, he was pulled up. Why is it always open season on MINE THAT BIRD? He had more excuses for coming up short after the triple crown races than most horses do. Yes Bird, you still have fans.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 May 2012 22:26:49 GMT

Rusty Weisner

“The only ones to do poorly out of the Derby in the past dozen years have been Monarchos and Super Saver.”

It’s ironic that both were sired by Marias Mon and both had tough final preps and Derbies. In the case of Monorchos he closed to win after wicked fractions similar to those recorded by my Bodermeister. I excluded IHA after the medical procedure was undertaken. Will said procedure be necessary preceding the Preakness? Your guess is as good as mine.

Now that Bodemeister is heading to Pimlico, will half of a furlong make a difference between the Derby winner and runner up? What do the cold facts reflect?

In the last 50 years the Preakness has been won by the Derby winner 18 times and twice by the Derby runner up. Is it reasonable to conclude from historic data the reduced distance does not favor Bodemeister but overwhelmingly favor IHA? I have not gather data on the number of Derby runner ups that subsequently entered the Preakness, consequently a proper determination cannot be made of the success rate of Derby runner ups. Without this pertinent bit of data I would still conclude that history favors an IHA victory. The last Derby runner up to win the Preakness was Summer Squall in 1990. Before Summer Squall the record books would have to be turned back to 1960 went Bally Ache went one better in the Preakness.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Greg R — Mon, 14 May 2012 21:11:05 GMT

Davids, you miscontrued my point. I wasn't saying dirt racing was harder on the feet ; I was saying that it is harder on the horse, ie., more taxing at the same distance of ground.

Extremely firm courses, whether grass or dirt, can make for sore feet and ankles, but they are not more difficult for the horse to get over in terms of effort or energy expended. On the contrary, the deeper the dirt course, the tougher it is for most horses to plow through, even if it is cushier and more forgiving. On the other hand, your cement-like turf courses in Australia (your description) may sting the feet of some horses, but they can skip over it with less expenditure of effort, since the energy recovery phase of each stride is more efficient. If this helps, there is less "push-off" effort required.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Greg R — Mon, 14 May 2012 20:51:49 GMT

Why should anyone anticipate that horses will, once again, be bred for ten furlongs when they so seldom run ten furlongs? The most common distance for day in, day out American racing is six furlongs. That's the rub. By far the best-known race among the general public is ten furlongs, and the most prestigious race within the racing industry (BC Classic) is also ten furlongs. Yet race tracks typically write very few races at such a distance and certainly not for claming and allowance-level dirt runners.

Isn't this a bit schizo? Many (most?) thoroughbreds will never run beyond 1 1/6 miles. That is the root of the problem, if you expect the breeding industry to focus on producing ten furlong types for our classic races.

If purses for longer races were more common on an average day of racing, horsemen would tend to prepare more horses for those races, there would be more demand by owners for route horses, breeders would cater to the demand and we'd have a larger pool of candidates for endurance tests. The larger the pool of stamina, the better the routers that will rise to the top.

Maybe long races wouldn't fill so easily at first, but if they go off with short fields, that just leaves easy pickings for the trainers who are willing to enter and others would soon learn to get in on the opportunity.

So if you're griping about the state of American racing and breeding and you're pining for the marathon steeds of yore, maybe you should be looking toward the racing secretaries.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Grande Fan — Mon, 14 May 2012 20:13:09 GMT

It seems to be our nature as humans to analyze statistics, numeric formulas, training patterns, etc. We want to be "the one" who knew it all along. The frustration of having 34 years of talented and capable horses unable to grasp the holy grail of the TC keeps our pencils and calculators in constant motion. Take a breath and step back to remember - if we can get out of their way and give them the opportunity - the horse will take us there. Good luck to IHA and a safe trip to all.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Jennifer irelan — Mon, 14 May 2012 17:43:12 GMT

Steve- thanks for those pics. Dont know if i have ever seen the first one, and since he is my favorite horse im surprised but i have a QH Daughter of Tinners way that i could superimpose her body over that picture and it would be identical. She is an unbelievable athlete just like her granddaddy. Never tired of pics of him!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:50:45 GMT

I actually like the 20-horse field in the Derby. It's unique as a betting race, at least here in the U.S.

As for the Triple Crown, it's doable. In my short time enjoying this sport, since 2001, I've seen two TC-caliber horses fall short because of racing luck in the Derby, while others have put up a fight in the Belmont despite being limited by their pedigrees. I've seen a few horses come close already. It may take a few more years for circumstances to align, but it will be worth the wait.

The horses I've seen that lost the Belmont with the TC on the line tended to be headstrong, not tired or dull. Funny Cide had a :57 workout the week of the Belmont and was very rank in the slop. Smarty Jones was also pulling against restraint. War Emblem stumbled badly out of the gate but flashed his speed to briefly gain the lead on the turn. I think their pedigrees did them in more than the grueling campaign.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:35:02 GMT

JayGo:

I suspect Bodemeister will be the favorite in the Preakness.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:33:06 GMT

Better still, Hansen won't run. I think Hansen would have set it up better for IHA, but now I'm going to bet Bodemeister.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:16:39 GMT

Game on.

If IHA wants the Triple Crown he'll have to beat the best. We could see a memorable duel in the stretch.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:16:02 GMT

Coldfacts:

...and he ran well in the Preakness, a race less kind to a horse with his running style.

One of the things his performance in that race also confirmed for me: the winner doesn't "bounce" off the Derby. The only ones to do poorly out of the Derby in the past dozen years have been Monarchos and Super Saver.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

slee — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:10:02 GMT

For those of us old enough to remember at least part of the TC "drought" between Citation and Secretariat, and how Secretariat was described all over as a "wonder horse" when he won the TC, we may also remember that a short 5 years later, the world seemed to have changed.

Anybody else remember? After Secretariat in 1973 and Slew in 1977 and Affirmed in 1978, suddenly there were conversations all over the media about how thoroughbreds had gotten TOO good, TOO fast, TOO tough, and the TC was, suddenly "TOO easy"! Seriously.

It does take a wonderful horse with tremendous talent and, let's face it, more than a little bit of luck to win the TC. Riva Ridge, for example, really should have had a TC in 1972. As somebody wrote at the time -- if it hadn't rained fit to scare Noah that day at Old Hilltop, he would have won the Preakness.

The statement about the horses needing more work, if not more racing, rings the truest to me. How can you expect a world class athlete to stand (or lie down) 22-23 hours a day and then compete? Why not walk and jog them 5-10 miles a day to keep the joints moving and stretch ligaments/tendons and improve circulation and develop "bottom"? I know, time, money, staff......

And, Steve, thanks for the pictures. I'd forgotten Affirmed wore those weird orange wraps when he worked, at least up at the Spa. But once he started to move, you never saw the wraps!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 May 2012 15:14:39 GMT

JayGo

“These horses are not bred to win the Triple Crown, that is obvious.”

A lot of folks would disagree with your statement above. The Triple Crown is comprised of three races in five weeks covering 31.5 furlongs where each contestant is required carry either 121lbs or 126lbs. It was not structured to be an easy task for those that venture to attempt it. Many horses bred in the US have excellent stamina and speed influences on both sire and dam side. Thoroughbred breeding and racing has one common denominator and that is glorious uncertainties. A foal based on its pedigree and confirmation that is expected to be a claimer could turn out to be the next TC winner. Conversely one that is big and robust and regarded as an ultimate equine machine might be unable to get out of its own way. There are lots of things affecting the breeding industry but do try to breed for TC excellence. However, in spite of the industry’s best efforts, exceptional horses will remain a rear commodity as Mother Nature cannot be influenced.

I do not know the extent of your knowledge about TC winners. However, I encourage you to read the story of the first TC winner Sir Barton. Below are some extracts from his bio:

Sir Barton was bred in Kentucky by John E. Madden and Vivian A. Gooch at Hamburg Place Farm near Lexington. Madden raced him in his two-year-old season. He was entered in six races, winning none. Madden sold the horse in 1918 for $10,000 to a Canadian businessman.

At three, he made his season debut as a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. He was supposed to be the rabbit for his highly regarded stable mate, a horse named Billy Kelly. However, it was Sir Barton who led the field of 12 horses from start to finish, winning the race by five lengths

Triple Crown winner Assault is worth reading as well.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Nyfalcon — Mon, 14 May 2012 15:07:45 GMT

Okay, here's the thing I am getting at the derby curse! Mine that bird, super saver, animal kingdoms all DW all wonderfully horses , but could not repeat the trick of winning after they won the derby?why well bad racing luck maybe but what ever the case it's fact . Right now im hopefully that I'll have another will have a nother big win! He's fit and has all the momentive to keep this going although I would give him a zinger on Thursday just to wind him up a bit a quick jaunt down the stretch just to be sure. He sure looks good to me and I can't help but think of seattle slew when I see him tacked up and that gives me hope!! Break that derby curse we don't need another one of them .

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

JayGo — Mon, 14 May 2012 12:58:38 GMT

Right on, Steve.

Next Triple Crown winner, even if it's IHA, will get there by default not by sheer talent as in the past for the reasons stated in the article. These horses are not bred to win the Triple Crown, that is obvious. And why should they nowadays when there are plenty of high purse races on the calandar and the big bucks are in breeding? IHA will be a favorite in the Preakness, rightfully so, and may win the race but look at the competition. Many would-be odds-on competitors are skipping the race. And the same thing could happen in the Belmont, perhaps worse if other contenders pull off to improve there chances in the summer stakes. This is how you will get a TC winner nowadays.

I question why the TC retains the luster it once had. Certainly people in the racing community, like Steve, understand it is antiquated in today's racing world. Maybe the network with the broadcasting rights should add $5 million to the purses, make it a prime time event and market like hell to the public at large. Maybe Kim Kardashian should award the trophy?

Horse racing today is a vehicle for legal internet gambling. The "sport," at least in the US, is dead as a horseshoe. Baffert in Meydan with horses and health issues says it all.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 14 May 2012 12:46:31 GMT

I think running on grass even if it is rock hard still provides more cushion and less shock to the joints and thin legs of racehorses.They tried AW in this country with varied results so in the US it is always going to be dirt and the breeders need to breed horses whose joints can withstand the continuous pounding of training and running over hard dirt tracks.They are breeding a lot of colts that can work fast so they can be sold at high prices but they cant withstand much training and running without monthly breaks between races.

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 May 2012 12:33:05 GMT

Playfriskyforme

“If IHA can gets it done more power to him. He still won't be mentioned in the same context as the great Affirmed”

our hypothetical statement above has captured my attention. My immediate question is - Why? Wouldn’t he have won the same three races? Base on your comments, if IHA win the TC there should be an asterisk placed beside his name. Are suggesting that Triple Crown winners should be categorized? Are there lesser and greater TC winners? If this is your conviction then the categories would be far too numerous and would serve very little purpose. Secretariat would be considered the greatest of all the TC winners by virtue of his recording setting victories. However, that would be one parameter to measure greatness? Seattle Slew remains the only horse to complete the TC undefeated. Sir Barton the first TC winner is the only TC winner who completed the TC without previously winning a race. Yes! He won the Derby as a maiden. In fact his Derby like that of Regret was his first start as a 3YO.

There is likely to be something unique about each of the 11 TC winners. However, the equalizer is the fact that they all won this elusive title against the odds and competition they faced. Many great thoroughbreds have failed in their guest for TC glory. It is a testament to the difficulty of the feat.

NB: The majority of supporters of these blogs consider Mine That Bird’s Derby victory to be a fluke. In fact, in many quarters it is abominable to mention him in the same context as great Derby winners. Those who harbor these sentiments have failed to recognize the pin sized gelding achievement. His victory was achieved by the widest margin in the last 50 years. He rider employed the mercy rule or it would have been wider. He was brave enough to fly though the narrowest of gaps that saw his rider’s left booth scraping the paint of the rails. Very few Derby winning rider had time to look back and perform antics enroute to victory. His Derby victory is the greatest that I have ever seen. It left one hundred thousand plus dumbstrucked and bewildered. In spite of the impact of his victory I am probably the only one that is brave enough to state that his Derby victory was greater than even that of the immortal Secretariat. Context!

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Davids — Mon, 14 May 2012 06:24:17 GMT

Greg R, you may not have attended the Spring Carnival racing in Melbourne, Australia. Often, the grass tracks have been described as "running on cement" due to the usual dry season there.

Moreover, may I invert your question and ask: "Why do the US bred grass horses in the USA need to run with race-day medication when US bred horses don't need to when running in Australia, Europe et al?

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

sysonby — Mon, 14 May 2012 04:01:15 GMT

81 yrs ago, Twenty Grand won his Derby in the same time as IHA...71 yrs ago Whirlaway was faster...Middleground and Hill Gail were faster 62 and 60 yrs ago....Decidedly was decidedly faster 50 yrs ago...Northern Dancer was even faster 48 yrs ago...Affirmed was faster 34 yrs ago and of course Secretariat was a lot faster 39 yrs ago....All of this occured on tracks that were less manicured and slower than today...And they did it without computerized breeding selections and without modern meds and designer drugs....Improvement of the breed ? Sez who ?

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Greg R — Mon, 14 May 2012 03:59:15 GMT

"Davids" asks how US-bred horses can run so frequently and without race-day medication in Australia, but not in the US.

In Australia, they are running only on the grass. Isn't that part of the answer? Dirt races are somewhat more grueling, usually, and take a little more out of a horse, so repeating them at shorter intervals is not as feasible.

Steve H. - What about the horses that these Triple Crown winners were defeating? Were they also running rapid-fire race schedules? Seems rather likely. If nearly all the 3-yr-olds had the experience of competing in races that were close together, that aspect of the TC winners' foundation wouldn't carry so much sigificance.

If nearly all NBA players are very tall, then height doesn't explain the standout performance of the superstar player.

The picture of Seattle Slew makes him look like a very wiry individual. Did he give that impression in person?

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Linda in Texas — Mon, 14 May 2012 00:58:34 GMT

Steve, that is a gorgeous photo of Affirmed,using O'Neill's comment about how his trainee I'll Have Another looked on the track yesterday, Affirmed "looks just like a shiny new copper penny for sure."

Like a kid, i look at the pictures first, now i will go back and read what you wrote. Now that will be my Mother's Day Dessert. And Happy Mother's Day to everyone.

Linda

re: Haskin's Preakness Report: Five Weeks in Spring

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 14 May 2012 00:15:33 GMT

Beyer Speed Figures should go the way of Slinky, and Streaking. They had their glory but who wants them now? Beyer Speed Figures have been going downhill for years. Like politicians, lawyers and doctors, you can't trust them. 101 for I'll Have Another is ridiculous as are many other BSF I've seen over the last five years or so. Personally, I use Brisnet, the combination of Brisnet pace and speed figures. Another thing that bugs me is all of the horses losing that are getting more credit than the winner. "He went too fast early, he encountered traffic, he ran farther, the dog ate half of his shoes and we didn't notice until the race was over but he was much the best." "He would have won if, blah, blah, blah" is getting so that it is better than winning. And how many races did we have to hear that with Union Rags? I'm at the "put up or shut up" stage with all of the excuses for the "He shoulda won" connections and writers. The highly touted loser is much more likely to get more credit than the deserving winner. I know that there are legitimate excuses and sometimes the best horse doesn't win but it's gone overboard. Some of the excuses, especially for trips that aren't that bad are very weak. Really good and great horses don't need a perfect trip everytime. The only trip that really counts anyway is a safe trip.