Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Melissa P — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:13:21 GMT

I've been a fan of Brilliant Speed since he came to my attention prior to the Bluegrass. I follow Dynaformers. When the big horse went to stud, we bred to him the first two years. There was something about him. Of course, there was all that Classic dosage and distance/turf pedigree that was not found in many other stallions at the time. A great outcross for all the Mr. P and Northern Dancer blood out there. I would love to see Brilliant Speed do well in the Classic. It would be a great swan song. I made quite a nice return on a bet on Perfect Drift in the BC a few years ago, I'd love to do the same this year.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Soldier Course — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 16:24:58 GMT

For what this is worth, I've had one of my "flashes" that Brilliant Speed is going to be the winner.

This happens to me from time to time, and it's usually correct.

That's how I picked Funny Cide to win the Kentucky Derby in 2003, when everyone at my party that day said I was crazy. My revenge was raking all their money off the coffee table into my wallet!

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Linda in Texas — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 17:53:03 GMT

Correction: Little Mike is owned by Ms. Vaccarezza in Florida and trained of course by Dale Romans won the Arlington Million. A very nice win.

Handsome Mike (and he is indeed) is owned by Mr. Reddam and won the 1 Million Dollar PA Derby, very nice win also. Trained by The Douglas O'Neill Team.

I watched both races, wanted to correct myself before somebody beat me to it. Sorry about that,went back and re read my notes and found my error, no harm intended to either horse.

They both stand on their own successes.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

lunar spook — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:04:53 GMT

MIDNIGHT LUTE- I meant TURF not mile , regardless , bank it !!!!

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Othello — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 00:40:43 GMT

Mr. Haskins I want to believe that you're right. Why? Because you've been in this industry for such a long time and I would respect anything you say, with respect to your knowledge on horse racing. I will take your calculated risk. Your knowledge is 2nd to none. And I myself have done my home work. Position would be key. Remincient of his Turf run against a classic Turf field of runners of 2011. He will be right there.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:36:47 GMT

Actually if confucious bought some brew and invited all his philosopher buddies to make bets on cons AWD account while they got drunk and watched the races on his big screen tv.He would definitely not use past performances to pick his long shots in his exotic wagers because he would know the races are not run on paper and never will be.In fact to those guys rice paper is a lot more valuable than past performances(they probably could find better uses for this paper since they didnt have indoor plumbing or the accompaning paper eventhough it is printed paper.Confusious being the clever person that he was would know that everyone would read the same thing and assign the same odds if going by past performances to pick long shots.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Lammtarra's Arc — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 22:29:13 GMT

Age of Reason- You had it!...then let it slip away ;)

My personal tip for the breeders Cup is Fame and Glory winning the Turf sprint. Bank it!. ;)

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Paula Higgins — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 22:24:23 GMT

To all of those who live in New Jersey and New York, you are in my thoughts and prayers. I grew up on the water and I what it can do in a hurricane. None of it is good. As for Steve giving advice on horse betting, he is one of the few I would listen to. No one is being forced to bet their money. Free choice.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 14:54:29 GMT

Dear Deacon;

No offense taken. I merely offered a counter-example to show that high temperatures in SoCal did NOT make a difference in at least ONE situation. Hard to communicate tone with typed word. Sorry if you felt attacked.

Compared to the US contingent, the Euros for the Turf and Ladies Turf ARE like monsters; if Dangerous Midge (G3 sort in GB) can win a BC Turf... And so is Excelebration in the Mile; over the last 2 years, he has lost only to Frankel and has beaten some very high-class milers.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

nickie — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 14:17:09 GMT

I get a chuckle from ome of these comments. Drosslemeyer "a slug"? ok, don't think the people that were bold enuff to use him @ Belmont or Churchill would describe him in those terms. And if anyone reads "expert" selections and do not do their own handicapping you are missing the [imo] most rewarding part of this game, and that is coming up w/ your own #'s. Personally, I remember picking a winner a few years back at the Spa, and the next day noted "pik 6" guy and von vivant Steve Christ commented..."you had to be either drunk or played your favorite #'s to come up with this runner..." and I will tell you, I got more joy oughta those comments than cashing the $150 exacta! I know it's antecdotal, but do your homework, you maybe surprised..aside Steve, have been a big fan of Brilliant Soeed since his Spring 3yo. campaign, he certainly can make presence felt here, and @ >15/1 is a bargain![2 others I will be using next weekend, both should be value,...Atigun[Belmont run was huge], and Wilcox Inn, his last was the real deal vs a gelding that may be the tuffest since Forego[see '75 Marlboro]

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Age of Reason — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 01:45:09 GMT

*stand* a chance. Don't mock others when your own keyboard has been freezing up, I suppose.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Age of Reason — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 01:44:25 GMT

Midnight Lute--Don't be silly, everybody knows that Shackleford has already declared for the Dirt Marathon. With his quick turn of foot, Fame And Glory doesn't tan a chance! ;)

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Linda in Texas — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 21:57:12 GMT

Dale Romans is being a gentlemen trainer with the likes of Little Mike, Dullahan and Shack all being

walked to see their adoring public

at Santa Anita so says bloodhorse.com. Love it.

That is just plain hospitable of Mr. Romans. i have been a Shackleford fan from the get go when he always lathered up and needed to be by himself before a race. I am fond of all three of those horses even before Little Mike ran i was pulling for him just because of his name and his size. And darn if he didn't come in first. Only learned later that he was Redham's.

Steve, i was always told by my grandfather that everyone likes to pull someones leg once in a while!

Especially when they ask for it!:)

Yargs, i love all of Steve's and most everyone's opinions and come to think of it, no one paid an entry fee to be able to get on this blog and read it either. Plus it takes all kinds, horses that is. I hope your's always win.

I also like Wise Dan and Animal Kingdom, but given Animal Kingdom's previous injury i am not real excited about seeing him pushed unless he is totally 100 percent physically fit. I am just probably too cautious and i am not saying anyone is running him if he is not 100 percent fit. Just worries me. I have broken my left arm 3 times in the same place and every time i do, it leaves it weaker.

Batten down the hatches on The East Coast please,looks like 'Sandy' is going to kick up a little wind and water. Be safe all.

Thanks Steve.

Linda

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Mike Relva — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 21:41:54 GMT

Yargs

Think it's you that owes an apology....to Mr. Haskin. Can't even put into words how absurd you sound.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Lammtarra's Arc — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 21:27:03 GMT

Because people like YARGS can't think for themselves. BAD Steve for stating your opinion on YOUR column....lol. Last I read he didn't PICK BS to win he said this horse has a chance just like any other, and stated his reasons. I am picking Mucho Macho Man because after a race in which he does not win this year he comes back with a monster run. 10f should not be a problem for him. OOOPPPS sorry YARGS I might mislead the sheep to bet on him now...

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

predict — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 21:15:08 GMT

A couple of thoughts about the weather affecting the outcome of races. First, track conditions are the ultimate consideration which is going to determine any affect that weather is going to have on the outcome of a race; and this is truly a factor that must include a careful look at the breeding of a horse, mainly whether they're able to take to an off track or not.

Secondly, I don't see weather affecting a horse's performance based solely on where they have been running; rather I see it based on how they have run under past conditions. I truly believe some horses, due to their breeding, will do better in colder/hotter weather and it is totally trackable if you take the time, and will produce winners for you if you take time to notice. I have often noticed horses that excel when running in cold/ wintery weather and seem to be just mediocre when run in hot/summer weather. The best example I can give of this would be horses that descended from Stalwart, they seemed to always run best on cold/cloudy days and not so good on hot/sunny days. I know this example goes back aways in time, but this was an angle that produced winners for me when no one else saw the possibility.

On another subject, regarding My Miss Aurelia, if Aunt Aurelia says she is playing her, I would recommend not overlooking her!

Also, IMHO, Animal Kingdom is back, and will win.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

LauraS3514 — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 20:28:01 GMT

For everyone who called Drosselmeyer "a slug" - he had the best lifetime record at 10f+ of all the runners in the Classic last year: 6-3-2-0 (with the unplaced in his only start on turf). He just didn't have enough races that really suited him. (I overlooked him too - I didn't look up the pps.) Remember, a horse who can string together consistent :12 sec furlongs may only run 1:12 for 6f and 1:36 for the mile, but finishes the 10f in 2:00...

Who in this years' Classic field has the best 10f + record? THAT'S who to look at. Not at these 8-1/2-9f wonder horses who start gasping one step past 9f...

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 18:00:37 GMT

I still want to see Wise Dan and Roayal Delta in the Classic. It looks like both will skip the race, leaving it wide open. I might just stick with Fort Larned, even though he was awful in his last race.

Awesome Feather's last race was not as dominant as some people are making it out to be. Anyone who watched races at Belmont that week should have noticed how the final times were lightning fast all week long. She did look powerful against zero competition. With only 2 races in 2012 I have many concerns with her.

My Miss Aurelia was very lucky to win the photo at Parx. Her huge frame is what gave her the win. I blame the pre-race instructions for getting Questing beat. The jockey let Questing relax and then tried to make one run. Why take a speed horse out of her game? I know that Questing will be on the engine from the start in the B. Cup. She is gritty enough and classy enough to hold off the field down the stretch.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

dontelmeshome — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 17:19:06 GMT

Steve,

I would be much more offended then Yargs is, if I had to read through a column dissecting why the even money favorite has a good shot of winning.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 15:32:58 GMT

Confucuis say, "He who picks favorite and loses looks dumber than he who picks longshot and loses. Whoa Nelly."

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 15:15:05 GMT

Those that are traveling out west from the east be safe and have a good trip. I see where the national news stole Steve's Frankelstein term and turned it into Frankenstorm. Good luck everyone. Don't forget those longshots, there will plenty of them in this BC.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 15:00:42 GMT

Winning on a longshot is a 100 times better than winning on a favorite, and I'd rather lose on a longshot than a favorite anyday. Longshots win everyday, and with most of them you can't see it on paper. Some sneak through the cracks and win at high odds with comparable stats and numbers but most don't. Anyone that bets more than $2 should be making their own decisions anyway. More are likely to mourn not listening to Steve when his longshot comes through than are to regret listening to him (although he is not suggesting anyone bet based on his article about a possiblity). If you lose $2 and that causes you great financial distress then your problems are much greater than losing $2 because a writer suggests that it is possible a longshot has a chance. This was a fascinating article about a horse and his connections and looking beyond what's on paper. If all the races were won on paper-well you know tha story. In my opinion this Classic is as wide open as any in memory but if you can't form your own opinion go spend your $2 on Snickers bars and be happy, and enjoy the articles for their brilliance without taking the chance of it costing you or making you money. It wasn't Steve's final pick anyway and even with that one, it is your bet to make with your money, not Steve's. Proceed with extreme caution if you make bets based on opinions of writers or "experts", many of whom have extreme difficulty picking a winning favorite eventhough all they do is pick favorites !!!

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Karen in Texas — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 14:58:47 GMT

yargs---How silly! Games of chance are precisely that; one acknowledges taking a risk without control over the outcome. The reading of any "expert" opinion does not not suspend the inherent obligation of one to be able to think for himself.

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

The Deacon — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 07:22:35 GMT

Steve: What's a yarg?

Keep your opinions coming Steve, I happen to appreciate them........

re: Countdown to the Cup: A Classic Bomb

Steve Haskin — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 05:16:38 GMT

OK, Yargs, you convinced me. I apologize. I'll never do it again. I dont know what came over me.