Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Pik4Joel — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 01:23:02 GMT

Hi Steve - really nice to meet you and Lenny at SA - your picks were very close to my own - Trinniberg kills the late Pik 4, but got a solid late double to get out...A side note: you got me to go to Lost and Found to search for the Starlight Stables jacket - I figured this was my big chance to claim some of the upper-crust swag left behind by the Drunk Riche...Um, what I found was that there were two sweatshirts, one a Redskins pullover with what looked to be chicken marsala sauce spilled on it, the other a Russell Athletic sweatshirt like I had in 8th grade...The selection of walking canes was pretty cool - there was one that had an elkhorn handle that I was tempted to claim, but then I would have ruined my karma and broken my leg on the steps leading to the Press Box, so I left...No jacket, but I bet you could find another - I also bet that Shareta would win, so I am not too reliable, but a bigger fan of you guys than ever - thank you for your kindness and sense of humor...Regards to Lenny, see you next year! We will go to the Monrovia Pizza Company for some delicious pie - my treat! - Best - Joel

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Alex'sBigFan — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 22:55:01 GMT

Linda in Texas, Dr. D. et al,

Hi guys!!! Finally getting through. Geeeeeeeez, I'm in war-torn New Jersey. It has been badlam to say the least, people with no power STILL, no gas, gas lines today are still horrendous, devastation all over. I was fortunate and had power throughout the ordeal but ran out of car gas and had no power at my corporation for days in Jersey City. Yes, the coverage of the BC stunk, but I am grateful for the replays on TVG and Ch. 4 came in at the last opportunity. Unfortunate the coverage. I missed "The Works" which I just love, does anyone know if TVG even had it? They had the 2 preview shows which I caught.

Finally after days of no car gas, my brother came to get me and we went food shopping since my husband is in Morocco all during the storm and still there so I weathered it alone. I'm fine, safe, all my family is safe thank God. If you have food and car gas you feel like you have a million bucks this week. It's unbelievable. As I drove in to work today, Monday 11/5 every gas station I saw had long lines.

Royal Delta, simply awesome. I knew it. And Shanghai Bobby was a good little 2 yr. old. I guess Dude is pooped out, he's had a busy year. Flat Out looked really on his game when I was at Belmont for the JCGC so I figured him in the money. Great job by Wise Dan but Animal Kingdom to take 2nd after 2 career setbacks is huge I thought. Exciting but watching in NJ after the fact certainly takes a lot out of it. Why didn't Ch. 4 pick up the entire BC?

Linda, yep, Little Mike awesome and not so "little" anymore.

Thanks guys I was thinking about all of you guys watching the BC and enjoying it. Steve I hope you and Joan and Mandy were safe througout the storm in NJ. We in northern NJ were spared, apparently southern NJ is unrecognizable as we knew it.

So glas to be back and will be back later in the week. Much work to catch up on.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 21:37:00 GMT

Post Halloween we saw two monsters for sure maybe more. Wise Dan and Groupie Doll sure are scary, and Little Mike was unreal, he's a little monster. He may end up in the Monster's Hall of Fame too if he keeps that up. He probably should be there already. Many spectacular performances and some great picks by future Hall of Famer Steve Haskin. Will have to start paying more attention in class. Speaking of Halloween, we had a food fight at our Halloween party in 6th grade and were allowed no more parties the rest of the year. Looks like probable future little monster He's Had Enough could end up in Japan. Glad to hear what happened to Questing, that sure was puzzling. Puzzle solved.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

El Kabong — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:13:23 GMT

Ranag,

You laugh alone. Enjoy your island.

The rest of us have a fond memory of Steve hanging your pinada up, then blasting it with an arsenal of sarcastic retorts. We all walked away with a pre halloween treat. I suspect it won't be the last time that happens.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Matt Helm — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:43:31 GMT

Brilliant Speed was just seen approaching the quarter pole.I threw him in my exotics also Steve.He was the typical good looking well bred horse that never delivered.Im sure the betting public is glad he is off to stud.Hopefully Alpha is done as well.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Saratoga AJ — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:15:46 GMT

After Wise Dan's devasting performance Saturday, I just wish the Brits had the nerve to send their so called greatest horse ever, Frankel, over to the BC. They sent their second best miler, Excelerbration, who's only loses were to Frankel. That is until Dan beat him.

A 1:31.7 mile? That's only a couple of ticks off the world record. Did Frankel ever approach a time like that? Even allowing for the perhaps deeper European surfaces, it still makes you wonder.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 11:52:32 GMT

Hi Steve,

I was wondering if anyone has updated news on Questing? Her effort only reminded me of the Life At Ten circus. With football or baseball player's we would have had full coverage of an injury and the athletes well being. Horse racing has a long way to go when it comes to media coverage.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Ranagulzion — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 01:19:29 GMT

Coldfacts my friend,

You lost your files but have you lost your mind, posting those critical comments above, about my Breeder's Cup picks? You've been away a long time therefore I think that you deserve a mulligan. However you've got to come back in better form than you're showing on here if you intend to challenge my views for the up coming 2013 Triple Crown season. Steve can tell you that I'm a tough customer and a "mucho macho man" for exposing his "Brilliant Speed" folly.

El Kabong & Age of Reason,

You both drank Steve's BS coolaid but now I'm having the last laugh pals (LOL).

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Bill Two — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 00:01:48 GMT

Good analysis on the downhill turf sprint and the Classic, Steve. I had the exacta on the turf sprint primarily because I believe that past success on the downhill course is crucial. You were right on the Classic and I see where you made out all right on that race. Question: How in the world did Tapizar win that race? Is it possible to handicap and come up with that horse? If so, I would like anyone to explain it to me. LOL.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Linda in Texas — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 23:20:09 GMT

Steve - keeping your mentions the topic, you nailed several. Groupie Doll the winner and Dust and Diamonds placing. Then in The Turf Sprint you had Mizdirection, hooray for the lady here! Then in The Juvenile you spoke of Shanghai Bobby, right again! In The Turf you

favored Point of Entry, a favorite of mine also, but not quite to the wire first when Little Mike was in the race. Tender spot for him in my heart. So his win was amazing. You are allowed 1 mis step without a chewing out.:) Then on to The Sprint You mentioned 3

of the win place and show winners,

And had Trinniberg as a longshot to come in first. Correct again.

Now to The Mile, Wise Dan was highly touted and he did not disappoint, BUT neither did your Animal Kingdom placing. So glad to see him racing again and healed. His is a great story and Animal Kingdom finished quite smartly to finish where he did.

For The Classic you mentioned all of the win place and show contenders. The other two you liked came in to complete the top 3.

I wrote this this morning (sunday) when i re studied your longshots and thought if i posted something else it would be rude. I hope you had a buck or two on the ones you hit on.

Royal Delta was just so classy in her win. She is a magnificent creature to watch.

Little Mike, Trinniberg and Fort Larned were there with their game faces on and it was candy for my eyes to watch them win. I will keep quiet for a while and let someone else have the floor.

Thank you Steve. Some great horses

to look forward to next year from

the looks of the races.

Linda

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Cassandra.Says — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 22:18:37 GMT

Not impossible that these thoughts led you to play Trinni/TheLG/Smiling Tiger/All.

That would be the college fund taken care of.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Freetex — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:57:29 GMT

Great handicapping Steve!

Now, if only I had paid a little more attention, oh well. Next time.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Steve Haskin — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:51:03 GMT

Thanks, Saratoga AJ, but you forgot the Turf Sprint (Mizdirection) LOL I laid low most of the day, saving up for the Classic, so I did pretty well there.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 19:57:58 GMT

OK Coldfacts you are back again in time to write commentary on Wise Dan that is puzzling.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Saratoga AJ — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 16:53:08 GMT

That was some very good handicapping Mr. Haskin. Hope you were confident yesterday and were generous with your wagers, especially in the Sprint, Mile and Classic pic 3's, exactas, and late DD.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Linda in Texas — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 01:09:21 GMT

Steve i forgot to say thank you in my last post. Now i really have a reason to say thank you. You photo'd Trinniberg earlier in the week and he was sporting his red bridle and the red pom pom on his head. i thought again when i saw his photo that he is a smart looking racehorse. I have read a comment or so before about his red pom pom. But i bet they won't knock it anymore. That was a great win for a good and kind racing family, The Parbhoos. How nice. But not too bad for The Lumber Guy either to place in a Breeder's Cup Race. A gray you know and i love them all.

Thanks Steve.

Waited to hit the submit key until after The Classic. Like i said in an earlier post this week,

'glad The Tex Sutton plane remembered to stop and pick Fort Larned up in Kentucky' with the first plane load coming out of harm's way in New York. And then you also photo'd him in his stall looking pensive. And now he is The Breeder's Cup Classic Winner. Who knew? Last year at this time, i was not so happy. Z forever. And thanks again Steve.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Linda in Texas — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 22:49:40 GMT

Alex'sBigFan - I could not pass up watching Little Mike race today in the 3 Million Dollar Race. And guess what? The diminutive fella won. I don't own the horse, but i was pulling for him and have blogged about him before. I know in my heart he won that race for all the people who think they aren't big and strong enough to handle the tough hands they are sometimes dealt.

I hope you were able to watch him

race and that he gave you a little hope, it was truly a sweet win.

Linda

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Linda in Texas — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 19:31:32 GMT

Alex'sBigFan - i know the devastation and i am doing nothing enjoyable until i know all the people affected are with cover for their heads, a warm meal and a drink of fresh water.

My heart is with you and yours.

Just now checking Steve's blog and Dr. Drunkinbum's thoughtful comments are certainly seconded.

I hope you all are safe.

And of course that goes for you Steve and your relations. I hope frankly,that everyone can be safe. But sadly the news keeps getting worse as to the number of unfortunate victims.

I feel so guilty and helpless being so far away. Prayers are sent your way for sure from all of us.

Linda

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Coldfacts — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 16:38:57 GMT

Ranagulzion,

How are you my dear colleague? I have lost all my files with the historic data that have I used to annoy so many over the years. It is time for me to give up the game.

I see you have highlighted the horses to be avoided and for this I express my appreciation.

Mucho Macho Man:

Are you aware that the record between THAS and MMM is 3 to 1. Are you aware that THAS was only beaten 3 1/2L in the 2011 BCC. You will recall he was out of training for sometime due to the injury he sustained in the FL Derby. He therefore entered the BCC short of the foundation necessary to win. By the way, race favorite Flat Out was only 1L ahead of him. A bigger, stronger and fitter THAS must be the horse to beat. I will be placing a token bet of Alpha as he is bred for the distance and is likely to win a big one at this distance when least expected.

Noble Tune:

Two turf victories in moderate times does not equate to star on the rise. He will not hit the board.

Rennesgotzip and Great Attack:

Who is Unbridled's Note?

Optimizer:

He only wins when the opposition is mediocre.

Trinniberg:

Another of your monsters' that has not beaten any horse of worth. Check his record.

How many horses have recorded a time of 1:23 for 7F in the bull ring at Charles Town. That's 1:23 around two turns. You need to look at the Sum Of The Parts for a possible flying Fast Bullet.

Wise Dan:

If he tries to stay close to the 1:08 pace he will be fried to a crisp. He will not know what hit him when the closers rush by.

Groupie Doll:

When a son of Seattle Slew sires a sprinter, it will take a Flying Doll as opposed to a Groupie Doll to lower the colors of DaD. Try to focus on Contested/Rumors

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

nickie — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 15:47:22 GMT

price plays for me..Juv. turf...Geo. Vancouver[Aidan sez he likes to "hear his hooves",...downhill...Renee Gotzip, Mig enthused, Corporate Jungle...Renssalaer NY conditioner learned from the "magician"...Wilcox Inn all eyes were on 'Dan[and rightfully so], but this guy was lovin' life in last....good luck to all!

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 15:04:07 GMT

Chalk play of the day: Groupie Doll w/ Dust and Diamonds, straight exacta and w/Emcee in the double. Emcee is razor sharp and will be stalking the early pace and then run away and hide down the stretch.

Corporate Jungle has a big chance in the turf sprint at 6-1 or better, there is no Wise Dan in this field.

Fortify is my win play in the Juvenile, he should be around 5-1. The 2 turns are what he is looking for and now Ramon should have a feel for how this horse runs.

Point of Entry should love the firm turf and will win this one for the U.S.A. 3-1 would be a small gift for me, i'll take it!

Wise Dan is my play of the day and like Point of Entry, he will restore America's pride on the turf. This is by far my favorite horse in training for 2012. I think Obviously and Excelebration must be used underneath.

This year's Classic is a complete toss up, but I'm sticking with Fort Larned. I made a big score with him in the Whitney and he is far better than his Gold Cup performance suggests. I'll play him in exactas with Game On Dude, Flat Out, Ron The Greek, and Alpha.

Ranagulzion,

Mucho Macho Man will not excel at 1 1/4 miles, you should already know that about him.

What makes you think Brilliant Speed should have entered the Turf? I was a big fan of his in 2011. In 2012 he has been just as ice cold as the Albertrani barn. Nothing about his form has been brilliant, he should not have entered the Breeders Cup in any race.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Old Timer — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 12:17:46 GMT

Steve,

Nice advice on both Zagora and Calidoscopio yesterday. I also like Rail Trip but not sure if he isn't more of a synthetic horse. What do you think? Shackleford just looks to be a step below his form of earlier in the year. He'll be tough nevertheless.

I also like Mizdirection. It seems that the Turf Sprint is always one of the most wide open races. She hasn't run for a while, but sure is in good hands.

Good luck to all.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 04:50:42 GMT

Steve

Nice pick on the Marathon longshot winner, "the old man" but I thought you promised not to do that anymore? I guess you forgot.

Alex's Big Fan

I am thinking about you and hope that you are doing OK. We're all thinking about the ravaged East Coast and hope that you all can get through it. Just devastating.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Ranagulzion — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 02:53:07 GMT

By the way, Groupie Doll looks a cinch on paper and should win but Musical Romance is coming to put up a stellar defence of her Breeder's cup sprint crown.

Horse of the year "designate" Wise Dan. Enjoy.

re: Countdown to the Cup: Saturday Longshots

Ranagulzion — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 02:47:32 GMT

Steve,

Good luck with Brilliant Speed in the BCC. Big time jock, Mike Smith has served up an appetizer aboard Royal Delta in the Distaff (Ladies Classic) and he's coming to deliver the main course on Mucho Macho Man in the Classic. I tell you again, BS will not hit the board (that one should've been entered in the Turf).

In the Juvenile Turf Noble Tune should signal to all that he is a Turf Star on the rise. I'm expecting this colt to impress.

I like Rennesgotzip and Great Attack in the Turf Sprint, Optimizer to give Point of Entry a scare in the Turf and Trinniberg to wire the field in the Sprint with The Lumber Guy filling the exacta spot. I also like Smiling Tiger to get the show spot.

Unlike last year, ther will be no major upset in the Mile, not in a field with a super fit Wise Dan, piloted by Johnny V. No sir, everyone else is running for the minor places. Any unlikely surprise would come from Jeranimo IMO.