Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

insider p — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 19:39:45 GMT

Stardom bound will not race against boys connections were not to thrilled with last performance even though she won.The plan is to prepare her fot the Oaks where she will have to race her heart to beat Rachel A and Just whistle dixie if she wins that will prove she is the best but,to this point she hasn't race over any other type of surface so we'll have to see what happens.IEAH planning big surprize shortly?Patena as mentioned did not fire on off track.Fres Fire looks like real deal over same track but, again what happens in new surroundings?

I'm suspect on Dunkirk? rider changes and work pattern suggest might be some issues.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

stardust — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:04:11 GMT

Mike

I think we are on the same track with a lot of horses. Something is really nagging me about Stardom Bound. She is one amazing filly.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

stardust — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:02:49 GMT

Steve

What are your thoughts on Stardom Bound. If you already answered this, I misssed it.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Wanda — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 20:39:02 GMT

Steve where do you put VH now that he got beat up today?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Slew.em.All — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 22:27:08 GMT

Like I said last year right after the BC,Stardom Bound is the best in her class,regardless of sex..she does what she has to do and doesn't have to win by daylight.She takes command then cruises to the wire,that's the mark of a Great One..I agree with Mr.Frankel,the SA Oaks is the next logical step,them maybe the KY Derby.She's done enough to have a solid bottom underneath her.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Matthew W — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:42:42 GMT

Draynay I was with you on Big Brown last year...My vote for HOY was Zenyatta---The voters decided it was for "Whom would win at 1 1/4 on dirt"---and they got THAT wrong too! My $$ would've been on Big Brown v Curlin...That being said, I will disagree with your '09 choice---Derbys are rarely won on the lead--Vineyard Haven will surely be on the lead! Also he will not have run EVER around two turns--that to me is a worse angle that synthetics to dirt--and they're both bad angles! That filly intrigues me--I love her head-low running style! But there's really no reason to ever run a filly v males---unless it's The Arc, where stamina trumps strength--or even The Belmont---but a mare's value is not increased one bit by defeating males---I DON'T have to see Zenyatta v the boys---at the same time I don't think there's an older male that could beat her, or Cocoa Beach for that matter! I did think Winning Colors was the real deal/thought she'd win The Derby---I applaud Frankel for preferring to run her vs fillies--Bobby Frankel has evolved into a master horseman, ala The Bald Eagle--He waits on a horse--he places them right....like Charlie....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Matthew W — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:11:11 GMT

Anytime you put 20 horses into a starting gate, going longer than they'ved ever run, you have a VERY good chance at a pace collapse! That being said, Pioneerof The Nile looked very strong last weekend, into a soft pace at that! Also thought Bittel Road ran well into said soft pace--The one good thing about the Santa Anita track surface (and maybe the only one thing) is rains don't change it at all--horses train/race on it as if it's always the same, and that is a genuine advantage! As far as the filly goes, she's no Zenyatta/not close---but I think she's a Derby contender, based on her class, her style, and her connections! Also Midshipman won his BCup wire to wire--That alone makes him intriguing!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

MIKE RELVA — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:16:38 GMT

TO DRAYNAY:

I like Stardom Bound,also.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

MIKE RELVA — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:15:24 GMT

Zavona:

I don't think anyone can tell for certain who will show up in May,much less the winner!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

DONNA — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 15:12:33 GMT

I have to agree with Draynot. Last night i was looking thru some things and found last years first and second Derby pools and low and behold Big Browns name was not on either one of them. There maybe someone out there who comes from out of the blue. Look at how War Emblem came on the scene in 2002. I had never heard of him before the Illinois Derby. He wins wire to wire with 117 beyer, Baffert buys him for the sheik and he wires the Derby field. Just goes to show, you never know.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Draynay — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 14:38:32 GMT

I am glad to see you pay so much attention to each word Draynot. Big Brown burst onto the scene March 5, 2008 and Vineyard Haven burst onto the scene October 4, 2008. I have also learned in racing anything can happen once the gates open. You could have a maiden winner step on a horse going for the Triple Crown and dislodge his shoe...it happens. Horses like Old Fashioned, Mr. Fantasy, and Vineyard Haven like it up front and a battle could open it up for a closer like Stardom Bound. Who will my money be on? I made that decision back in October. Who will I be cheering for? That is easy the horse going to the barn with Big Brown... Stardom Bound !!!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

draynot — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 13:13:10 GMT

Interesting to see that draynay now is stating that if the Haven is better than last year a few have a chance. Very recently he was saying noboday had a chance against him if that was the case. Personally I take 2 yr old performances for what they are worth. That was last year and it's a big difference how those translate to a 3 yr old campaign. The competition if it's there changes dramaticaly over a few months. Just like any year at this point there is no clear cut favorite. Why just last year at this time most had never heard of Big Brown and he proved to be head and shoulders above the others that day who showed up for the Derby. There is alot of potential out there and that is what makes it so interesting.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Steve Haskin — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 07:40:54 GMT

Zavona, all I can say is you cant stuff 50 pounds of potatoes in a 10-pound bag. Seems like you have your own Top 12, many of which I never even heard of. When Midshipman runs and wins or finishes a good second I'll put him on there. From past experience, always wait for horses to actually run in Dubai before committing to anything.

Mike, Haynesfield is very talented, but as you mentioned, distance is a big question. The Gotham will be his big test.

JC, yes, the same concerns for both horses and any horse who has never raced on dirt.

mg, the last I heard, Donativum was not going to point for the Derby, but as you know things change in racing.

Draynay, I'm a big fan of Vineyard Haven, but how does his current trainer know he's never been better when he's never even trained him for a race yet? He probably never even saw the horse last year. Let's wait until Thursday. Then we'll know a lot more. If he shows he's the same horse as last year then he will move way up.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Justine — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 03:18:18 GMT

@ draynay: I'm sure Vineyard Haven appreciates your support, but let's wait until after he's run against the South Hemisphere horses before chatting up a storm about him, ;)

I feel pretty sad that the horse that's got me most fired up for the Derby Trail broke his maiden February 1st.

Can't wait to see what becomes of Mr. Fantasy vs. Haynesfield.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

draynay — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 03:05:56 GMT

There is no clear favorite for the Derby ? Maybe you better go back and watch the Champagne and listen to Vineyard Havens current trainer who says he has never been better. If he did get better since the Champagne all but a few have no chance.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Julie L. — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 01:28:42 GMT

A few weeks ago people began speculating about the Kentucky Derby and at that time I said that the only horse that had caught my attention was Pioneer of the Nile and after the Robert B. Lewis race he is still the horse I am closely following. I really like his breeding and believe it suggests that he should handle the triple crown distances. I am anxious to see his next race and feel that he is only going to get better.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

russell maiers — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 00:40:25 GMT

Nice article Steve, I sure appreciate the information. The opinions are starting to get stronger and what fun it is. With our friends across the ocean races coming up, and the under the radars having to face tougher coming up, it should really get exciting. My top six, box them all, will have to be Old Fashion, Stardom Bound, Candy Rides two sons, Ryehill Dreamer, and Mr Fantasy. Looking forward to the next updates.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

zavona — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 00:38:25 GMT

and what about "Amercian Dance"? isn't he bred to complete the BELMONT???

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

zavona — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 23:52:23 GMT

and come on!!! "Midshipman" isn't on the list yet??? And, it would seem that you overlooked the trip of "Papa Clem" off only a maiden run!!!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

zavona — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 23:48:48 GMT

where are: "Dunkirk";"Augustusthestrong"; "Eve On Jacob"; "Ice Road";

"Zenzational"; "Flying Private";

"Dynamoor"; "Convocation"; & "Fumeg River"

& how much or how badly do "slight injuries"

affect "Big Drama"; "Square Eddie" ; & Theregoesjojo"??? just workouts lost??? OUT OF CONTENTION?

with only 10 weeks before the dance are these injuries qualifying threatening????

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

DONNA — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 23:18:25 GMT

If Bob Baffert believes Pioneer can win the Derby if he continues to move forward I wouldn't bet too heavily against him. Also Larry Jones thinks Freisan Fire will get better as he learns more. No matter how good the horse is if they get stuck between a wall of horses the ending some times does not play out for the best horse, especially in a twenty horse field like the Derby.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

MIKE RELVA — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 22:56:19 GMT

HELLO STEVE:

What is your perception regarding Haynesfield? I also like him alot. I realize what some are saying concerning distance,but I still like him.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

ALYDARSTAR — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 21:33:55 GMT

AT THIS POINT, THERE´S NO A CLEAR FAVORITE FOR THE DERBY. THAT MAKES THE SELECTION A REAL FUNNY GAME, DOESN´T IT? MY TOP 12 CONSIDERING DESERT PARTY, Vineyard Haven AND MIDSHIPMAN WILL STAY IN THE DESERT.

1-PATENA

2-FRIESAN FIRE

3-MR FANTASY

4-OLD FASHIONED

5-STARDOM BOUND

6-FLYING PEGASUS

7-PIONEER OF THE NILE

8--Capt. Candyman Can

9-HAYNESFIELD

10-DUNKIRK

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

mg — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 20:57:46 GMT

Wanda, Yeah that was me when we discussed the Saratoga heat. I'm still on board and looking for the entry pretty soon. Best of luck with your home boy, get to the window early and let's get a clean trip.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Nile Flowing Fast

Wanda — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 20:46:25 GMT

Makes sense to me about reserving judgment on VH till after he runs against older horses.{Southern Hemisphere time}. It's a big transition from 2 to 3 and a bigger one from 3 to 4. If he can pull that one off I agree with you, he should be considered a serious contender.