Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Michenka — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 00:02:49 GMT

What is all this with Big Brown? He is not running this year, and a good thing too because he would have this bunch for lunch. Having said this OF did what he had to do, win. He picked up some form without taking too much out of the tank. By doing this he should be much better by the next race but not a peak form so he should be just about right by May. In the meantime, there are several good horses coming into form and the Derby should be great.

By the way I breed my mare in March or April because I live in the mountains and want a slightly later foal so ice is not an issue.

We do not need any slip and fall dramas. We put a band around the tummy and turn on the TV to listen and watch the mare at night so we do not have any surprises. Mother nature is allowed to decide the time. There is alot to do before the horse ever sees a race track, or a auction ring.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

BIG BIRD — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 01:53:39 GMT

its true unbridled song shure has the liscence to become a super sire...but...genes are unpredictable .If I had been at the sale when seattle slew went thru the ring i would have never guessed him becoming the SUPER SIRE ELITE he became..He didnt have near the breeding in my opinion that secretariat had..I have my eye on ghost zapper .

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

zarvona — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:27:06 GMT

yep the 'FOY' is shaping up to be a sprinters duel! Looks like "Beethoven"; "Break Water Edison"; & "Jack Spratt" won't have any problem with the distance, but "Taqarub";

"Theregoesjojo"; & "Notonthesamepage" may all go wire to wire in front of them??

Now wondering where that leaves "Capt. Candyman Can"??? Should prove most interesting! I wouldn't touch this race even if I had a favorite!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

SSC — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 16:44:37 GMT

Looks like the Gotham may be tougher than the Fountain of Youth

Is the inner track at the Big A a real test or not?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Draynay — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 16:30:59 GMT

Ranagulzion... I agree with you this is the year for Unbridled Song. He will have 6 or 7 in the Derby so how can he miss? Any idea how many he has had in the Derby the last 5 years?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Wanda — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 16:18:35 GMT

Ya got to remember m palmer, they don't know how their bred, they can't read.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Ranagulzion — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:33:43 GMT

M PALMER: If there is one and only one stallion that I had to forcast as a Derby-winner-producing sire and probably producing multiple derby winners over the next decade it would be Unbridled Song. His only weakness is that he occassionally passes on frailty in the legs of some of his offsprings but right now he is the successor to Storm Cat and AP Indy and I believe that he will outshine those two when it comes to producing successful Triple Crown horses, especially in the kentucky Derby. The writing is on the wall. Dunkirk's pedigree is awesome (I was very impressed with his dam Secret Status) and while I he has not yet broken into my Derby Dozen, he is on the bubble. Remember there are exceptions to every rule.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

m palmer — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 12:11:10 GMT

“Elysium Fields” Liked him as a 3YO. Firstly, because his pedigree reflects five inbreeding between his third and fifth generarions. Two past derby winners reflected the same level of inbreeding i.e., Real Quiet and Charismatic. He showed a lot of promise as a 3YO. Good to see him back.

If you like “Elysium Fields” you should like Godolphin's Regal Ransom. His pedigree reflects five inbreeding between his third and fifth generarions as well. He is a late foal (May 26) that has been running well but has a large maturity gap to fill.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

zarvona — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 09:12:30 GMT

Geeze , I am sitting here remembering shouting ...go cat!!, go cat!!, go cat go!! ...and they think "Flat Out" gave up ground??... ya should seen what non-maiden winner "Nolan's Cat" had to make up!! I rememeber him passing "Giacomo" and heading right along, but opps, the wire...only 3rd!!! Where would he have finished if he hadn't spotted the field a FURLONG plus!?!?!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

zarvona — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 05:45:00 GMT

Yes, it is only the 3rd week in Feb. and we are all only speculating, including Steve! And, we haven't even yet seen a Major prep outside of the Breeders Juv and really only a few minor ones, all while watching the various connections plotting their courses. I haven't had a ‘single favorite’ ever going into any Derby until "Big Brown" last year, although I admit was pulling for "Barbaro" and “Smarty Jones”. I carry 5 or 6 hopefuls in my pocket on Derby Day and keep my fingers crossed. I didn't have "Giamomo" either! But, I luv all the info I can absorb to get to those 5 or 6 choices!!! And for one, I was glad to see the likes of an “Elysium Fields” return to racing.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

m palmer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 23:58:06 GMT

Slew.em.All, the following horses are the ones I have identified as the pedigree profile to be the potential winner of Derby 135:-

Notonthesamepage

Hello Broadway

Midshipman

Pioneerof the Nile

Flat Out

Giant Oak

Danger To Society

Wise Kid

Warrior's Reward

Millennium Lake

Cape Truth

Ziegfeld

City Style

Midshipman, Pioneerof the Nile, Wise Kid and Hello Broadway were all sire by great grandsons of Mr. Prospector and consequently will be cut from my list. City Style, Cape Truth and Ziegfeld were sired by grandsons of Mr. Prospector and will be watched. Mr. prospector’s grandsons have sired five derby winners which represents a record for a grandsire. City Style is a January foal but he is out running his pedigree and has left me puzzled. Notonthesamepage, Giant Oak, Danger To Society, Millennium Lake are all from the Storm Cat sire line. This has never produced a winner and is overdue. Most of Storm Cat’s better off springs are chestnut and Giant Oak and Notonthesamepage are chestnuts. Flat Out is the sole representative from the A.P. Indy sire line via his unassuming son Flatter. I like him a lot. Any horse that gives up a lot of real estate at the start of a race and reclaims a substantial portion in defeat is good, very good. The last time a Bold Ruler line stallion sired a derby winnerwas24 years ago. Warrior's Reward by the brilliant Medaglia D'Oro was defeated by the celebrated Dunkirk but remains high on my list.

You probably have never heard of City Style. He is a horse that continues to puzzle me. He stated his career in a maiden claimer. After breaking his maiden he won the Sunday Silence stakes from 12 lengths last. He was then entered in the Breeder Cup Juvenile Turf and closed from 12 lengths second to last to be beaten by 21/2L behind Dnativum and Westphalia. He recently won easily in Dubai. His sire City Zip started 11times as a 2YO and this may account for his toughness.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Slew.em.All — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 22:21:20 GMT

Also,I likened your stats to the Derby Dosage Index hoopla of the 80's and 90's. Nowadays those "calculations" are considered garbage when analyzing a Derby prospect..Good research though,but I'll stick to good old fashioned Trip Handicapping,no punned intended.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

m palmer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 22:18:41 GMT

I have stated in past postings that I dislike January foal as potential derby winners. My dislike stems from the fact that horses in their natural habitat do not foal in the winter months. A January foal is therefore a product of forced conception. For those who are interested in the reasons for my position, the extract below will hopefully provide some insight into t the reproductive cycle of a mare.

The estrous cycle (also spelled oestrous) controls when a mare is sexually receptive toward a stallion, and helps to physically prepare the mare for conception. It generally occurs during the spring and summer months, although some mares may be sexually receptive into the late fall, and is controlled by the photoperiod (length of the day), the cycle first triggered when the days begin to lengthen. The estrus cycle lasts about 19-22 days, with the average being 21 days. As the days shorten, the mare returns to a period when she is not sexually receptive, known as anestrus. Anestrus prevents the mare from conceiving in the winter months, as that would result in her foaling during the harshest part of the year, a time when it would be most difficult for the foal to survive.

While horses in the wild mate and foal in mid to late spring, many horses domestically bred for competitive purposes, especially horse racing and various futurities, are usually born as close to January first in the northern hemisphere (or August first in the southern hemisphere) as possible, so as to be at an advantage in size and maturity when competing against other horses in the same age group. When an early foal is desired, barn managers will put the mare "under lights" by keeping the barn lights on in the winter to simulate a longer day, thus bringing the mare into estrus sooner than she would in nature. Mares signal estrus and ovulation by urination in the presence of a stallion, raising the tail and revealing the vulva. A stallion, approaching with a high head, will usually nicker, nip and nudge the mare, as well as sniff her urine to determine her readiness for mating.

Barn Managers have to intervene for a mare to foal in January in most if not all cases. It is my view that a horse born out of season is like a fruit out of season. What negative impact does it have on the foal? Probably none; however, I cannot recall a thoroughbred great that was foaled in January. Irrespective of how good these foals are, they rarely win the derby although they have a sized and maturity advantage. This is fact not fiction. I am not declaring that January foals are not good; I just do not list them as likely derby winners. All authors have their systems of trimming their derby lists. I use many issues to trim my list and a January foaling date is just one of them.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

LDP — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 22:06:38 GMT

Dray,

Remember BB? i believe he had only three starts coming into the derby, one was a turf start the year before. This has been done before, who's to say it can't happen again?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

m palmer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 22:02:27 GMT

Helsbelles, Although I stated that the derby is weird, the pedigree profile of the past winners remain consistent. Derby winners are produced by low earning broodmares and stallions standing for modest fees at the time of the winners foaling date. It is weird because the horse with the derby winner’s profile is normally not the best going into the race.

It is pretty much unprecedented the number of Unbridled Song offspring’s in the derby mix. This is the reason none of them will win. Stallions that stand for $100K and over are have very limited success in the derby. The Mr. Prospector sire line will probably account for 80% of the derby starters and probably City Style win end up winning.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Slew.em.All — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 20:41:52 GMT

I think "luck" has to do with the winning results of the Derby.With 16+ horses in the starting gate,and a stampede going into the 1st turn,it's not always the best horse that wins,but the one with a smooth trip.

"January foals are a product of manipulated conception"..you've got to be kidding right? It just so happens that January is the beginning of breeding season here in the States.The luck of the draw,I guess.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

helsbelles — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 20:40:46 GMT

mpalmer, do you realize you contradicted yourself? With all your cold, hard facts... you ended with it's the derby, i.e it's weird. That's the whole point... stats have their place, but anything can happen in a 20 horse field of young 3-yr olds. You are obviously well informed on racing, can you tell me if you remember a year where there were so many derby prospects from one single sire, like the situation this year with Unbridled's Song? When has this happened before and with what stallion? Thanks.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

m palmer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 19:57:21 GMT

Slew.em.All, I just provide the cold facts. I know they appear over the top but they are what they are. Storm Cat and his $500K stud fee has never sired a derby winner. He has now been pensioned to quarter horse mares. A.P. Indy and his $250-300K stud fee has not sired a derby winner with 13-14 crops. The great Mr. Prospector sired one at age 26. No Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat or Affirmed broodmares have produced a derby winner. The aforementioned stallions have sire 2,121 dams that have produced 11,968 foals, 7,694 runners and 5,424 winners. Of the 5,424 winners none were derby winners.

The derby is no ordinary race and it has to be seen for what it is i.e. weird

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Slew.em.All — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 18:13:26 GMT

m palmer:

by your stats,it seems like the Cons outweigh the Pros.Proof that your analyzation has gone overboard.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

phoenixky1 — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 14:18:43 GMT

Steve, I thought you might like to know that Take the Points will not be running in the Gotham but rather they are shipping him to California to run in the Sham on Feb 28. It came as a surprise to me too. Do you think a horse can ship from Gulfstream to Santa Anita and stand a chance? I am worried...

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

m palmer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 10:45:10 GMT

If the pedigree profiles of past Derby winners are examined closely, it will be blatantly obvious that Dunkirk will not be the winner of Derby 135. I suggest sticking to the winning profiles and avoid those that have not produced. The positives with Cape Truth cannot be opposed.

(a) His dam was sired by Far North a son of Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer is unequaled as a derby grandsire. Seventeen of the last 37 Triple Crown races were won by broodmares sired by his sons and grandsons. In five of the last 14 KDs, Northern Dancer’s sons have sired the broodmare of the winner. The talented but ill fated Eight Belles who was sired by Unbridles Song was produced from a broodmare sired Dixieland Band a son of Northern Dancer. Subject to correction her runner-up position is the best finish for a prodigy of her sire.

(b) His second dam was sired by Traffic Judge a son of Alibhai. The influential Alibhai sired 1954 derby winner Determined and remains the only unraced sire of a derby winner. He is featured in the pedigree of many derby winners. In fact, the pedigree of Bedazzle the dam of the brilliant Street Sense reflects inbreeding to Alibhai. Needless to say, she was sired by a son of Northern Dancer.

(c) His third dam was sired by To Market a son of Market Wise. The pedigree of the great Spectacular Bid reflects an inbreeding to “To Market” Spectacular Bid former WR holder for 10F on dirt 1:57 4/5 is the broodmare sire of the brilliantly fast Mr. Fantasy.

Guys, horse with these types of profiles win derbies. Dunkirk’s profile has not yet made it to the derby board and I am confident it will not in 2009. Stick to those profiles that have been successful.

NB: Expensive yearling have dismal records in the derby. Only Fusaichi Pegasus ($4.4M) has finished in the top spot. He was never able to repeat in the Triple Crown series Do you know that based on his excellent looks, he was called superman as a yearling. Dunkirk may have glittered in the eyes of many but he is certainly not gold.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

draynay — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 04:52:50 GMT

m palmer I could not agree more has everyone lost their minds? Dunkirk ? You have to be kidding! No racing foundation at all and he is going to show up and beat 20 battle tested horses in May? Dunkirk is not a derby horse and the total lack of foundation makes him a toss in the Derby.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

zarvona — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 02:31:45 GMT

TY Palmer

Now tell all which of the 401 nominations and the likely 15 + late entry fee payers will be the winner!!!, that is, if you have researched them all in such depth! And, just why bother even owning those other 400 if your going to keep making cases against everyone that has popped up into someone's present top 30 list? But I do appreciate reading your angles!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

m palmer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 01:30:05 GMT

Guys, I must have seen another race. When exceptional horses take the lead at that point in a race, they move away with authority. They do not have to be ridden aggressively. Did anyone see the head on replay? He carried his head like a mule. This horse does not stride out like a champion. If Dunkirk wins the derby I have to give up evaluating horses. It is my opinion is performance was average at best and there are a lot of negatives that have been ignored by his evaluators.

(a) His DOB is January 23, 2006. January foal RARELY win the Kentucky Derby. Many of the horses he defeated lack his ability, plus he has the maturity advantage. January foal are product of manipulated conception to gain a maturity advantage on the first Saturday in May. Bluegrass Cat from the Todd P. barn was a January foal who was 3 month older than Barbaro. His maturity advantage did not make a difference. Old Fashioned has a DOB of January 27, 2006. He is 3 month older than Friesen Fire. He will not finish in front of Friesen Fire if they make the derby.

(b) No great grandson of Mr. Prospector has sired a derby winner to date. In fact, of the enormous number of Mr. Prospector great grandsons that exists, only Grindstone has sired the winner of a Triple Crown race.

(c) No broodmare that has earned a million dollars and over have ever produced the winner of a Triple Crown race. In fact, the highest earning broodmare to produce a derby winner is Wishing Well, dam of Sunday Silence. She earned $381K. The best horse produced by a member of the millionaire club has been Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Gulch who earned $3M.

(d) No A.P. Indy broodmare has produced a classic winner to date. He has had some of the best broodmares.

(e) The sire of the runner-up in one year has never sired that winner the following year.

For Dunkirk to win the Derby a number of firsts have to occur. His profile cannot overcome all of the above and consequently he is not the horse. If Cape Truth impresses in his next start, he is the horse. He won his debut at 7F in a fighting 1:22 plus. His pedigree profile matches perfectly those of past winners. His dam is inbred to Hyperion and Bull Lea. Inbreeding to Hyperion has featured in many derby winners. However, no inbreeding to Bull Lea, the sire of three derby winners has ever appeared in a past winner pedigree. Bull Lea was dominant both as sire and broodmare sire.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Southwest & Middle East

Abbie Knowles — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 23:55:17 GMT

On the latest maidenwatch (Kittens) there is the U tube video of Dunkirk's win. He was so impressive wasn't he? What do you think of him Mr Haskin? Apparently he now goes straight for the Florida Derby which will tell us a lot more but he could not do more than he has. A P Indy and Secret Status are influences for stamina I would have thought so i am not worried because he is by Undridled's Song. Who is a lovely stallion.

Dunkirk leaps up my list of favourite horses and I will be following his career with interest throughout the year as I do all of my favourites. After all 2009 is not just about one race is it? Important though that race is!

God Bless

Best wishes

Abbie