Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Slew.em.All — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 18:24:04 GMT

Thanks Barbara,everything you stated is right on..Also,TTP already had done his major preperation in Fla.,that's why Pletcher had no problem shipping him a couple days in advance to let him stretch his legs and get a feel for the track..European horses do that all the time,with success and they travel across the Atlantic.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Barbara — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:59:28 GMT

I think Pletcher probably knows how to get a horse "ready" for a race. Many horses fly in on top of a stakes race if based elsewhere. They don't all fly in week(s) in advance for the Derby now either.

TTP's plane was supposed to leave the DAY before, not a week BEFORE.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

zarvona — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 09:05:54 GMT

gee after all those points and counter-points noone stood up for "Chocolate Candy"??

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 02:08:29 GMT

Slew,

TTP original flight was suppose to arrive like a week before the race so he'd have time to work over the synthetics, but it was canceled and he got there with only two day to go over the surface, a surface which was totally new to him. Because of getting there so late he only had time for one gallop over the surface. How in any way does that qualifies as ready??? Had he gotten there on scheduel he probably would've been ready, and the only exuse i could, but wouldnt use is the fact he traveled from coast to coast.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 02:01:18 GMT

Barbara,

I'm not contorting anything. If TTP had arrive earlier and had been able to work over the surface once or twice, i'd say he was ready, thats why if he looses in the SA Derby i'll be happy to admit i'm wrong. In this case he only arrived two days befor the race and had one gallop over a foriegn surface. That hardly qualifies as ready. If MHS had run in some more stake races, not a lot but more than none and jumping from a maiden to stakes then i'd say he was ready, this horse is still growing and still trying to figure out the game, that is why he was not ready. As i said i'm not contorting anything it's just my oppinion. In regaurds to the race with Square Eddie, the Pamp was on the improve anyhow, but the presence of a Juvinile runner up overshadowed it. The Pamp had been putting everything togeather and finally put it all togeather in that race. Square Eddie was not geared up to face a potential challenge, he was in that race to just go in run win and get him back into the groove of competion. IMO had he been more prepare and not been handle so confidently he would've won, and with ease. This is just my way of thinking, if you don't agree fine, were never going to meet so why should i get upset. Not being rude, just stating a fact.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Slew.em.All — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 21:12:15 GMT

LDP:

TTP WAS ready for the Sham Stakes,he was also entered in the FOY but,they chose to ship him out West for 2 reasons: 1)they thought he'd like the Synth. track better,and 2)to keep him away from his stablemate Dunkirk in the Fla.Derby. They most certainly had him ready as best they can considering he had no Graded Stakes Earnings to get into the Ky.Derby.

FYI...You can trust that ALL horses without or little Graded Stakes Earnings are pretty cranked-up for these preps in order to qualify.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Mike Relva — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 20:15:57 GMT

TO LDP:

No,your thinking isn't flawed,wasn't even back in the day when we were taking shots @ each other,lol. No,seriously I see your point,I think he is good,but I'm taking a wait and see approach.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Barbara — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 20:07:43 GMT

LDP, TPM was not any more ready for the Jan race than SE. Hello? Otherwise how did TPM have so much improvement - well documented by clockers and observers as well as his trainer - over the past 6 weeks? And on display Sat? Has he peaked now? Maybe. Probably not. But we will find out in SA Derby, won't we?

The "beat nothing" theory is one that you seem to contort for your "argument." If a horse loses, he wasn't ready, therefore he is "nothing" until he wins? Huh? All of these horses are being brought along to peak later and have a natural progression of maturity. While balancing the need to win for most of them to garner graded earnings. It will work for some and not others. But a horse either has talent and potential as a young 3 yr old or he lets us know he is in over his head pretty damn quickly.

All horses peak and have form cycles - I am shaking my head here. BB peaked in the Preakness? No he didn't. He peaked in the Derby, had enough left in the Preakness, and was done on Belmont day. Then later his form arguably was cycling back up.

And what does a training feat that leads to peaking in a classic have to do with early season preps? Peaking in the Derby is the plan!

Baffert claims POTN wasn't 100% for his first prep but his bullet works said he was ready as could be. But if there is a trainer who knows how to control the ebb and flow of the peaking Derby colt it is Bob. And Canani may make as much sense as you do, but he is a great horseman.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Karen2 — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 18:37:15 GMT

Barbara I am in complete agreement with you regarding young improving horses on the derby trail. It is really hard to say right now. What got me with Pamp is is seamingly effortless stride. He was cruising at a decent clip and he didn't seem to faulter. He came across as a much more experienced horse. I loved watching him. The other horses seemed to struggle to find their way and get comfortable. The Pamp was just floating. Maybe just a good day for him...maybe the sign of a great horse in the making...to early to tell but fun to watch!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 18:06:55 GMT

Barbara,

Whose to say the Pamp hasen't peaked? BB did last year, the only difference was he peaked completely in the Preakness. Also part of his success was by beating inferior horses. The trainer may not want TPM to peak, but you can't stop nature. Also just because a horse is favored does not mean that they are ready to fire their top shot. The reason Eddie was favored was because everyone thought he was racing in a soft spot and even with the layoff nobody in the field could handle him. The connections got overconfident and did not gear him up as much as they would if they knew that the field contained some good horses. Pamp knows the track loves and loves the track and was geared up enough to win, plus he has already run in stakes. TTP was not ready so you can throw his performance out and guess that he'll do better, maybe even win next out. MHS is a later bloomer and still learning the game. He had only won against maidens, and was not ready for this race. The Pamp because of these reasons has beat nothing notable this season. If he comes back and does it again in the SA Derby against the same two, plus possible SB and POTN, then he'll have beat something good enough to be moved up the list some.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Barbara — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:05:26 GMT

LDP,

Pletcher and Harty had their horses as ready as they needed to be on the day and they were not going to beat TPM anyway. I am well aware of TTP's ship, etc.

Of course they have room for improvement.

My point is that all of the colts are sorting themselves out and so it would be impossible to say "He beat nothing" when dealing with young, improving horses on the Derby Trail. Who knows yet? And BTW, Square Eddie was favored off his lay off in Jan. and was well regarded - and TPM beat him fair and square. Unless you think Canani was trying to peak his colt in Jan?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:58:47 GMT

Barbara,

The reason the Pamp didn't really beat anything last out, in TTP or MHS, is because TTP was not really even ready, he arrived two days before the race on a foreign surface, therefore he didn't most likely give his best effort. MHS is a winner against maidens, and that's it. Was his win impressive, yes, was he as good as we all expected no. Do both horse have room for improvement, yes, but unlike the Pamp neither one was ready for the race. If they had been, and both ran to what their true potential can do, then I'd say different, but they didn't.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 21:33:18 GMT

Mike,

Thanks. The Pamp is on my list now but not very high. As i said i'm not totally sold on him and based on my reasoning i seem to be getting some flack for it, not too much though. I swear in Nile was running on dirt i'd have him as my number one. I never have got to see many of his older races, but when i saw a replay of the Lewis i was like no thats a derby horse. I'm not going to rehash what i've said for the millionth time, i've put it on a couple other blogs, but do you think my thinking is flawed on the pamp?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Barbara — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 21:05:06 GMT

The Pamplemousse was very impressive. As we move along, I get a kick out of the comments from some that a horse didn't beat any horse of consequence - since the soph prep season is meant to sort out the chaff, isn't it? And to then note the horses that seem to have more improvement in them, like TTP and MHS?

I think this crop might turn out to be pretty good in the end.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Mike Relva — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 18:20:44 GMT

TO LDP:

Hi! I like many of your selections. The Pamp. impressed me,I will admit that he was never on my list,but he looked really good. I agree w/you aboyt Pioneer,I've liked him from the very beginning,much like I have Zenyatta.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

phoenixky1 — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 15:30:26 GMT

Karen, thanks, I thought he ran a great race. The Mousse was great but I think if you give TTP a chance to train over the surface he will be a different horse in the Santa Anita Derby. How many horse can say they have run over 5 different tracks and have been either 1st or 2nd in 4 out of the 5. He had to overcome change of surface, outside post and jet lag. I am not sure how the West Coaster's will do when they have to come and play on our play ground, the dirt :)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Karen2 — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 15:01:09 GMT

Phoeix..TTP looked good in the sham, just no match for the pamplemousse that day...you should be proud.

Wow..what a run by pamplemousse... He really made it look easy...what a fluid stride, I was truly impressed.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 13:42:44 GMT

Mike,

What do you think of the Pamp? I'd love a second oppinion in this matter. You can see my thoughts in some of my other posts. You can feel to critisize any part if you feel needed.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 13:40:35 GMT

Zarvona,

Personally i think POTN is still the best, and if he in the Pamp run togeather in the SA Derby i will make sure to get to watch that race it should be one of the best preps of the year, the only thing wrong with it is that it's on synthetics. My reason for liking Nile better is because he's already prove twice now that he's got loads of heart. His trip in his last was just as nightmarish of a trip as the Derby can be and he still over came that. His acceleration was just a thing of beauty to watch as well. He has the pedigree the boot and the pamps is kinda questionable. The pamp ran a nice race, but exect for Square eddie he hasn't beaten any real horses. Most of those new upstarts that were suppose to be for real didn't even get close to him. He also has had dream trips in his last two. He was allowed an easy lead in both which also allows a lead horse like him to get brave, i wonder how brave he'll be when looked in the eye for the lead in the Derby. I know he also set fast fractions but again that track is has the ablility to be very fast allowing horses to more easily make those fractions. I will say i do like the fact that he is a lead horse in a dist race that can sustain his run. Still the winner of the two right now for me is POTN

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Mr.Ruffian — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 03:38:20 GMT

Zarvona

Patena had a slight setback after the LeComte. He's working up to the La.Derby

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

zarvona — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 02:47:20 GMT

so... who is the best in California NOW??? "Pioneeerof the Nile"; "Chocolate Candy"; or "the grapefruit?"

...and where is "Patena"? plotting a course to miss 'the dance' although??? sry to hear about "War Echo", ...they are falling fast!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Derby Mass — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 13:05:58 GMT

any new news on charitableman???

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

m palmer — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 12:40:52 GMT

Ranagulzion, Breakwater Edison I do not like. He should have done better in his last. Running so badly after a respite is not consistent with a good horse. Apart from my long shot Jack Spratt I really like Beethoven. If you want to know how talented this horse is, visit the Kentucky Derby135 web site and review his 7F race at Keeneland. He got an excellent break to claim the lead and shortly thereafter he was relegated to last. He then made a Monarchos like move to get to the leaders only to lose by a SH. I have never seen a horse close that way on the keeneland surface. He is better than Breakwater Edison and is realy the horse to beat.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

Mike Relva — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 04:58:36 GMT

TO: LDP

I think Mr. Fantasy is possibly for real.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?

LDP — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 03:33:24 GMT

Mike,

Lets see about Mr. Fantasy too. I'm hoping it will be our two at the wire togeather, preferably mine first. That be Mr. F, lol.