Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

VANDAL PA — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 05:29:45 GMT

REVENGE with VENGENCE ON SAT 3-7-09 was FIERCE IN A 2 GUY ROMP umtil 30' short of the yarn. YOU GOT IT RIGHT as usual.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

borntograze — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 15:33:05 GMT

Jeff Mullins had his horse cranked fit. He pulled off the traveling and relocation beautifully. He brought his riding savant, who is connected to the horse like youth are apt to connect, especially under Mullins guiding hand and heart. Mullins is by now up to the challenge to keep I Want Revenge happy and sound through the Triple Crown. Which horse holds the record for the Derby when it was a mile and a half, and where do that horse's roots cross with Mullins?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Karen2 — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 22:16:32 GMT

Steve...please don't ever apologize for a story you have written. If it doesn't suit someone they can always choose not to read it or furthermore not comment on it. I feel privledged to have your insight and your expertise, especially this close to the Derby. IWR ran a great race and should answer those questions about his ability to handle the dirt. Thank you Slew Em all for pointing that out to coldfacts. Pedigree is important but it isn't everything.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Mike Relva — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 19:36:39 GMT

TO RANAGULZION

What were you saying regarding Mr. Fantasy? lol

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Laura B — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 10:25:34 GMT

Dear Steve -- What a touching story, elsewhere on your blog, about the "'Miracle' at Machmer Hall!" On another note, would you please let us know what you thought about Nicanor's good second in his second race? And have you ever written at length (in more than a paragraph or two) about how you got "into" horseracing journalism; if so, would you please let us know where we may find that? You so clearly love horses; your knowledge is deep and wide-ranging; and you're a terrific and prolific writer to boot! Many thanks from one of your lucky and loyal readers! ~ Laura B

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

GunBow — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 07:45:43 GMT

Good job Steve. You were one of the few turf writers who really stuck his neck out and predicted that I Want Revenge would move up considerably on dirt. I was right with you, after being somewhat disappointed by his stretch run in the Lewis. Talamo's comments after the race verified what I saw, a horse full of run that just couldnt get a hold of the synthetic surface. This is turning out to be a wonderful crop isn't it? Every week it seems a monster or two steps up and runs a hole in the wind. Alot different from last year when most top contenders fizzled, and only one horse(Big Brown) ran particularly fast.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Michenka — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 00:21:15 GMT

I thought this race would be between IWR & IC. I had thought it would be a fight for the wire. IWR caught IC flat and MR. Fantasy ran a interesting race. This should move him up in the rankings-hooray!

Hard knocking horse!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Slew.em.All — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 22:34:37 GMT

UnTruths,err..Coldfacts: you were saying?

"Revenge is Sweet",Steve..looks like the Wood Memorial will be a total walk-over for IWR.Unless Pegasus comes down from the clouds and challenges him.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Ranagulzion — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 17:42:48 GMT

Draynay: Imperial Council unbeatable, are you kidding? So far this is one of the wait and see colts. Avoid getting ahead of yourself because Mr Fantasy could possibly be showing him a clean pair of heels at the wire.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Draynay — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 04:32:26 GMT

Mike... Haynesfield is not a winner in this race. 6 races and his best Beyer is 93 and he did that last year? He is a good NY horse but that is it. No dreams of the Kentucky Derby here. This is Imperial Council's race to win or lose and any improvement off his last makes him unbeatable here.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Mike Relva — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 23:27:54 GMT

HELLO STEVE:

Taking Haynesfield for the homerun!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Slew.em.All — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:29:41 GMT

Coldfacts:

Yes IWR is only 1for6,but he's never been worse than 3rd..he never had the lead in th CC Futurity,but came flying and just missed(1/2 a nose)catching POTN..in the R.B.Lewis he ran similar to what Big Brown ran in the BC Classic where he made the lead maybe a little too early in a surface he might not have cared for all that much.

A fellow commentator on these blogs used the same angle as yours,i.e...(pedigree,d.o.b,etc.) in analyzing his predictions for the Sham and FOY stakes last weekend and both his picks finished-up the track..Don't worry,IWR's female line has plenty of South American and European Classic Distance winning profiles.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Steve Haskin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:29:41 GMT

joedunaway, neither the trainer nor the owner have a clue what theyre going to do about the blinkers. Mullins obviously will have to make a decision soon.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Steve Haskin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:26:27 GMT

coldfacts, my assignment was to listen to the NTRA teleconference and write a story. The guest was I Want Revenge's owner David Lanzman, so I wrote a story. I'm sorry I wasted your time and upset you so much.

fyi, I touted Wise Kid when he got beat in a maiden race and will be touting him again in Monday's column. I also like Flat Out. I hope you enjoy that column more than the last one.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Coldfacts — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:14:01 GMT

Steve, I do not understand your reason for dedicating a piece to a horse that is one of six. Are you implying that he is more deserving than two of four Flat Out and two of three, Wise Kid? Firstly, I Want Revenge broodmare line has no derby or Triple Crown record. Secondly, he stopped in the last sixteenth in his last two races suggesting he does not want to go further. I do not accept the issue of him not getting a hold of the track. In the Cash Call Futurity he took lead briefly and relinquished it just fast as he took it. He did the same thing in the Robert B. Lewis Stk. The change of surface will not help him. His dam line is just too weak.

Flat Out ran a monster race in the Southwest to finish fourth. Although he was used early to get into contention he was still running at the end. This indicates a stamina pool that is deep. His broodmare line is significantly better than that of I Want Revenge. His first dam was sired by a son of Northern Dancer. Only five of ND’s sons have been broodmare sire of Derby winners. His second dam you have mentioned in the past was sired by Double Jay. Double Jay in addition to being leading broodmare sire in 1971, 1975, 1977, and 1981 is also the broodmare sire for Ferdinand and John Henry. Double Jay’s son Sunrise Flight is was the sire of Sun Colony dam of Pleasant Colony. Certainly Flat Out who appears to be able to run all day has more upside than I Want Revenge.

Wise Kid captured my attention in his first start when he was a troubled second. He is unfortunate not to be one of the still remaining undefeated 3YOs. It is not often you see a debutant accelerate from last along the rails only to lack racing room and when switched out, accelerate again for a NK defeat. Like Flat Out, Wise Kid has an abundance of stamina and is from a broodmare line that is exceptional. His first dam was sired by Seeking The Gold who has sired some of the best fillies to have raced in recent times. His unraced second dam is a daughter of the Secretariat mare Six Crown who was dam of GI winners Chief's Crown. The fourth dam is certainly the best. She is none other than fillies Triple Crown winner Chris Evert.

I think both Flat Out and Wise Kid are far more deserving of an under the radar piece than I Want Revenge.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Coldfacts — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 10:18:07 GMT

Guys, I think some re-handicapping should be done for this race as some important bits of information are being missed. Let me firstly state that Haynesfield will win Saturday's Gotham. The race is between ML favorite Imperial Council and Haynesfield. Let’s compare both. They both started their racing career a day apart, Imperial Council a January foal and Haynesfield a May foal. In spite of Imperial Council maturity advantage, he has only made three starts compared to his much younger counterpart’s five. Clearly Haynesfield is the structurally sounder of the two. Haynesfield‘s last four races were mere exercise gallops, whereas Imperial Council had to run very hard to win his 3YO debut. In the speed department, handicappers may believe that Imperial Council is faster than Haynesfield. Let me hasten to highlight the fact that Haynesfield recorded a time of 1:16 1/5 in the deep sand of Belmont Park for his maiden victory. That was his second start some five months ago Imperial Council recorded a time of 1:16 3/5 for his 3YO debut victory. In the pedigree department the Haynesfield has the advantage. His sire Speightstown had far superior mile speed to Empire Marker. These speedy grandsons of Mr. Prospector i.e., Street Cry, Elusive Quality, Distorted Humor, Quiet American, Unbridled etc., seem to produce the exceptional 3YOs. Haynesfield’s broodmare line is far superior to that of Imperial Council. The first four dams hail from Deputy Minister, Round Table, Northern Dancer and Mahmoud. Imperial Council’s first four dams hail from Gulch, Secretariat, Lucky Mike and The Pie King. Coincidentally Imperial Council’s third dam Special Warmth, is also the third dam of The Pamplemousse. In summation, Haynesfield is better bred, tougher, faster and more seasoned than Imperial Council and will defeat him easily.

As for the rest of the field Mr. Fantasy is a sprinter and will not hit the board. His PP reflect that in his last race he was ridden out in fractions of 48, 1:13 with a final time of 1:45 1/5. Haynesfield in contrast was in hand at a similar distance and recorded fractions of 47, 1:11 final time 1:44 2/5. I Want Revenge should not beat Axel Foley for the minor spots. Axel Foley finished 5 lengths behind I Want Revenge in the Cash Call Futurity after a slow start. The G1 Cash Call Futurity was his third start compared to I Want Revenge’s fifth. It was also his first in the US. In his last start, he race with an equipment change (Blinker) that he clearly didn’t relish. I therefore expect the now more improved Beverly Hills Cop to get the better of I Want Revenge for third. My plate of crow will be very big if I am proven wrong. My Picks are:

Haynesfield

Imperial Council

Axel Foley

I Want Revenge

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

joedunaway — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 03:16:27 GMT

You did not mention if I Want Revenge is going to continue with blinkers?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Draynay — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 02:05:47 GMT

Steve I just read your new Article "Fastest by Far" and I have to say I am in shock. I would like Mr. Brown to kindly explain what he is talking about. Let me post below what he said.

The horse with the second-fastest figure last time out with a 2 1/4 is Imperial Council in his 3-year-old debut. He still has tremendous room for improvement, especially stretching out, which should play to his strength. According to Brown, however, he bounced off his career debut and he has to show he’s not going to bounce again, so he questions whether he can come back with a big effort.. The other brilliant New York-bred, Haynesfield, is coming off an open stakes victory, in which he ran 3 1/2 points slower than Mr. Fantasy. He did run his best number three races back, a “2,” which still is 2 1/2 points slower than Mr. Fantasy’s last and two points slower than Mr. Fantasy’s maiden race. He’ll have to run back to that race, and actually better it to have any kind of chance against Mr. Fantasy, according to Brown. But he does look he'll certainly make his presence felt.

Steve, Mr. Brown said he "Bounced" off his career debut. What? Huh ?

How on earth is a win by 2 1/2 with a mild hand ride a "Bounce?"

www.youtube.com/watch

I implore any and all to watch this race and get back with me and tell me how you can call this performance a bounce...

I find it interesting that Mr. Brown found Mr. Fantasy's performance so good when he posted such average fractions. A 48.3 ? a 1:13.1 ? These numbers are very average and open company will expose Mr. Fantasy to REAL fractions. We will see how he holds up to a 46.5 and a 1:10.5

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Tiznowbaby — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 01:26:37 GMT

Wizard, I really like Mr. Fantasy a bit better. I don't think this is the optimum race for Imperial Council, but it could be a good race for him to move forward from. I'm curious to see what I Want Revenge does.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

The Wiizard — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:18:04 GMT

Tiznow...just realized they are still using the inner Winter track Saturday. Haynesfield loves this track...can he handle the improved competition?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

The Wizard — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:05:40 GMT

Tiznowbaby:

I agree on Haynesfield as far as Derby distance, but if can duplicate the form he had on Aqueduct's Winter Track to the main track, he sure can win a 1 1/16 miles Gotham.

My derby horses are no real surprise, but I like Old Fashioned and Quality Road.

Old Fashioned reminds me a lot of his daddy, Unbridled's Song, who ran such a courageous race in the 1996 Derby on three feet. Led to mid stretch, after going very wide on the turn...bad leg side.

Quality Road is trained by Jimmy Jerkens, who learned his trade by the master, father Allen, greatest trainer of my lifetime. Quality Road looked great in the FOY, winning by 4+lengths,and I was impressed by what Kenneth McPeek, the trainer of the runner up, had to say. "My horse ran great, but believe me the winner is a very, very impressive horse".

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

ElusiveQuality8 — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:44:15 GMT

I've seen many references regarding the stakes races Derby winners have run in. How much does this really matter? Within reason, yes. The horse should perform exceptionally well against solid company prior to the Derby (i.e. SweetNorthernSaint - not; and goes to post as the FAV). The calendar has changed, the races (from some) are not even the same distance, surfaces have changed. The horse has to be (a) fast (not necessarily early, but fast, (b) have a solid pedigree, (c) come into the race well-meant and in great shape and (d) able to strike from mid-pack or closer. I am not an expert, but I do like to see experts sway the public with their historical angles. So, please keep up the good work and may the best handicapper win. Sincerely, thank you for the venue and the attention brought to the Derby season.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

Tiznowbaby — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:14:09 GMT

Oops, sorry Wiz, indeed you did. I claim brain fart (or that laziness!).

Haynsfield is just not a Derby horse for me. Not keen on the breeding. Same with the Mousse, though I love his honesty.

Still holding out crazy hope for Mr. Hot Stuff just because the trainer said the horse is still a big goof. He's got foundation, so if he can pull his stuff together, there's some hope.

Imperial Council is interesting, but he has so much to overcome.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

DONNA — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:16:07 GMT

Mike R., ditto on Mr. Mullins. He's had his share of problems and not so much on the up and up. After being high on Buddy Gil the year he ran in the Derby leaves me kind of sour on him. I don't know if it was the horse or the trainer that wasn't so good.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Revenge is Sweet

DONNA — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:07:42 GMT

I have to agree with Draynay. I think Imperial Council is the one to beat. I'm rather leary of Haynsfield seeing Ramon Dominguez has deserted him for the Califoria races Saturday after he hyped him up so much. I Want Revenge will run a good race and applaude his connections for sending him across country. Still, the Gotham should be a very interesting race and am anxious to see how Mr. Fantasy runs.