Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Steve Haskin — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 18:31:22 GMT

No problem, Wanda. I'm just surprised you're still back in that blog. That was three blogs ago.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Wanda — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:43:44 GMT

Steve I would like to publicly apologize to you for the verbal exchange I got into with Mike R over this rider thing. I have been on the receiving end of a bad ride a few times ( twice with money on the line) but IMO however bad the ride was I still don't believe in calling out the rider in front of people.

Thank you for all you do on these sites and believe me I won't go there again.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Mike Relva — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 21:47:03 GMT

TO:WANDA

Here's a "reality" check. I've done it before,twice and I was able to sleep just fine that night.Thats' my call to make!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Wanda — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 04:21:23 GMT

So let me get this straight Mike. You would call out a rider in public, in front of other people instead of talking quietly about it somewhere else. Why? Would it not be better to change riders? There's lots to chose from at any track, besides no human being needs to be humiliated by another over a stupid horse race.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Mike Relva — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 20:08:33 GMT

TO WANDA:

You have your opinion,I have mine!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Wanda — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:55:20 GMT

Hey Mike I hope you don't call them out in public, that would be wrong on all sorts of levels.

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sophiekea — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 20:23:42 GMT

Im cracking up reading these comments as it seems everyone is fired up over who the best horse is and so forth. We will only know the derby winner when the day comes and as of now, its March 12. There are a lot of races to be won and a lot of training yet to come. Is there a pool for which horses on the hot lists dont make it? Everyone should chill out and just enjoy the races and the horses while we can. If only the horses knew of all the crap spoken about them and the pedestals we put them on......

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Mike Relva — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 16:35:43 GMT

TO RANAGULZION:

ARe you kidding? Steve is on point regarding IWR. I own three horses that race in minor stakes in Fla. and make no mistake about it,if the same situation happened w/mine that did with IWR,I would have found the jockey very quickly after the race!

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Dreamer's Mom — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 22:58:01 GMT

So happy to hear your comments regarding Talamo and the whip. Find myself screaming "get off the stick" all the time. Ahead by eight? Throw the darn thing in the infield! You can pop my horse once or twice to see what happens, but you better not be using the stick if you have the win in hand or you'll find another horse to ride!

I have General Quarters in my stable mail-just got a workout notice on him-any idea where he'll run next? Yep, I'm a girl in love with a gray horse and a great story!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Draynay — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 21:38:22 GMT

marc W like you I also pull out the bucks on Derby day. On that day I have done my homework and believe in my heart of hearts I know who will win. The races leading up to the Derby I am a fan first and wishing the horses I like make it to the Derby. I bet a 50 dollar box in the

Gotham and got paid half because of my heart half because of my head. I am rarely sure about any race leading up to the Derby but come the first Saturday in May I will have the winner. Am I always right? No but the last 5 years I have only missed it once. I was pretty cock sure last year, I hope I can have that much fun this year being so cock sure.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

marc W — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 19:32:14 GMT

Draynay--

A point-I thought Unbridled was the best 3yr old the year he won the Derby. In my mind at the time, better the Summer Squall whom I deemed his only threat-I watched the Bluegrass and replay a few times-in my mind he was climbing badly and didn't seem to handle the Keeneland track at all. I thought it was a perfect prep and with the result I licked my chops because at that time I was known to bet fairly serious money and I was going to get a bonus price off that race. I bet a little over $1000 dollars on him in the Derby---by far my biggest Derby bet (I have bet a bit more at times but the Derby is usually a tough race to bet with confidence-it is better to cash at Finger Lakes on a $5K claimer than boast after the Derby)With a easy pick for second it made for a cash of about $24K.

A) I didn't need to overly pontificate on my selection-if asked I gave my opinion and reasons why. I thought I had an edge to exploit. Money in my pocket was the prevailing thought

B) I put my money where my mouth was---I didn't tell everyone I was brilliant even after the race or those having other opinions they were wrong.

You have a great opportunity to make a score. People like me don't think your horse is going to win. I don't knock your choice or your reasons for liking him. As evidenced I am not always right--although I have my opinions, but it is getting a little lame, your picks, as it heralded on a number of different posts. Amazing but we horse people are not all are right all the time.

Cash your tickets if you win and take your kudos--I am admittedly curious how much value would be on the tickets if you lost--only to see how much truly you were willing to risk on your overly sure thing. I know a few days ago I bet $1000 on a horse called Hanna's Classy Boy at Santa Anita and ate it. I was so impressed with his first race--in retrospect it was a bad bet--(of course he lost)first off a lengthy layoff, and first time turf--the moral is-I put my money where my mouth was-win or lose.

I have no Wood or Derby wager-

a) I don't know who is running b) it is too early to predict with any confidence.

If forced I would say same field in Wood as Gotham-same result

Just a few thoughts to the king of surety.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Karen in Texas — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:29:40 GMT

Tiznowbaby--Off topic or not, I agree with your views on the bias against Sunday Silence.

There have been several comments on these blogs about The Pamplemousse's stride. Some have said it resembles Barbaro's, and others have said it was more like Skip Away's. As I watched a replay of The PM's last race, I suddenly remembered the quarter horse filly Kool Kue Baby and her distinct way of moving. To me, The PM has that sort of action.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Draynay — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:02:12 GMT

Rock...me an excuse ? Nope... Imperial Council wins the Wood.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

marc W — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 15:45:06 GMT

Tiz and Mathew

Since I started this SS EG thing I will put my 2 cents in although it is off topic.

Easy Goer and Sunday Silence or even Affirmed Alydar when running basically even in talent. In both cases the handier horse proved best the most times. Alydar wouldn't change leads and wasn't as fast out of the gate, and Easy Goer didn't seem to get race position as well as Sunday Silence giving SS the edge. On the two closest decisions of both pairs the Belmont A and A-Affirmed made an easy lead in the very early race before Alydar challenged him the rest of the way and in Preakness EG and SS case EG broke a touch slow before putting in the most exciting race I have ever seen other than Da Hoss just absolutely refusing to lose the Breeders Cup-(Trumps the A & A Belmont in my mind) I won't even say the gamer horse won in either because all four gave their all. If a horse finds ways to win and another to lose-on who is better-you have to go with the winner. Ranking wise I would put EG and SS in the same area of the wonderful Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin crop. A & A above them talent wise, and the Dr. Fager, Damascus crop of 3 yr olds that year the best ever in my lifetime (I rate Dr Fager as the best ever and there were 3 yr olds in that crop excluding those two that in any other years would have been superstars-and I am not talking Sham like horses and remember Buckpasser was still running as a 4 yr old)---I can't comment on or place Man O War or Citation as I never saw them.

The Boss (SH) or any other can disagree-but those are my thoughts-I think it is interesting and a great blog topic-but it isn't what is at the top of the page.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Robert H — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 14:43:45 GMT

Zarova- The Risen Star looked more like the Derby with 250-1 shots, bumping, traffic jams- it almost feels like Sat is the Preakness as I said on the other board.

When I picked Revenge it was because his Hollywood races told me that I felt he'd love Aqueduct. The posts are on the Gotham blog- I won 3k, but moving to the race you mentioned- the LA Derby- Friesan Fire will not run three winning races in a row, nor will we see him again after this race if they intend to run him at Churchill and expect to have something left-in my opinion.

There is a reason why horses that have won the Louisiana Triple never do anything else- as a matter of fact- the last horse to attempt it was Fly Cry in 1994- he was the heavy favorite and finished off the board.

Dixieland Heat did it in 1993- then after that- DH was used up for the rest of the year and DID NOTHING.

Look at Giant Oak- take out the Bourbon and using the Risen Star for what it is- a showcase for his talent and desire to win and he becomes a clear choice in my book. And it was the DRF that said he was in an impossible position and can't be blamed for his showing on the turf, or don't take that word- watch the two races.

You have to also consider the Triple Crown trail is always full of heavy favorites that lose because people jump on bandwagons week to week.

As I said in the 'Gotham/Revenge' blog, Last year; War Pass lost the Wood at 4-5, Pyro lost the BGrass at 1-1, Z Fortune was off the board in the Rebel at 3-5, War Pass was 1-20 in the TB Derby and off the board, El Gato Malo was 3-5 lost the Sham, Z Humor was off the board at 6-5 in the Sam Davis.............My point is- before the Derby, people get bent out of shape on some of these horses thinking they are backing the next 'star'. When you look at the rankings just before those defeats- they go hand in hand with how heavily the above horses were bet.

And in the Florida Derby, Ill Derby and Lexington- the favorite was off the board each time.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Robert H — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 14:34:04 GMT

In regards to the Easy Goer comments- the bottom line is- he was an excellent horse, BUT of his 5 most important races- he lost 4!

He won the Belmont, lost the BC Juv, lost the Derby, lost the Preakness, lost the BC and was 3rd in the Met Mile.

You can't blame anything on the JCGC as Curlin ran down LR and won the BCC going away. Because Crypto didn't flop- is that an excuse?

It is like all those who said Big Red lost to Prove Out because he was tired- well- LOL- Prove Out ran 5 races in 5 weeks- he wasn't tired as well?

Easy Goer was a damn good horse- but minus the Belmont- he lost almost all of the really important races when he needed to win.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

OLD TIMER — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 14:13:04 GMT

Okay. So maybe I was using a little hyperbole with the phrase "catapulted from nowhere" regarding IWR Derby Dozen ranking. You got me on that. I admit. I still have to differ on putting IWR at the top spot unless he repeats a similar performance in the Wood. To me, the good Gotham performance flattered Pioneer of the Nile even more. That's okay. That's what the game is about. If IWR wins the Derby, I will admit my error. In the meantime, I'll enjoy even better odds on Pioneer of the Nile in the next future wager!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

TexSpect — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 10:38:20 GMT

I just remembered where I had seem the stride like The Pamplemousse had in the San Felipe at Santa Anita, in Forego. I have not been able to see The Pamplemousse in perdon as I am in Texas and can only watch the races on tv. I am interested in his chest conformation. Also, it seems he was "climbing" a bit in the stretch. If that was the fact and he was accelerating, it would indicate a penchant for dirt. Him being tired after the race does not bother me as he probably ran close to a mile and a quarter in the run out. That should put him in better conditioning. I truly expect him to rate in his next race. If so, if Canani could hold off with his "Celebrations" until after the Derby, he just may be the one. Since we can't put pedigree on the track and the horse must do the running regardless of such, we'll just have to wait and see. All said and done don't forget about 10% is jockey performance and who knows when they will"trip."

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Tiznowbaby — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 03:58:22 GMT

Matthew W, I know we're off topic here, but this always chaps my hide. If Sunday had been the East Coast horse and Easy the Cali horses, no one would be mentioning Easy's name. As it was Sunday that won 3 of the 4, do you you regard him as one of the truly all-time great horses?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

The Rock — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 03:54:21 GMT

Draynay,

I'm sure you'll find some kind of excuse if he runs second in the Wood.....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

Matthew W — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 02:23:49 GMT

Easy Goer and Sunday Silence faced off four times--the heavy favorite lost all four--I won a bundle on the Derby Tri---But I thought Easy Goer was the better of the two, and it was Phipps/NY Racing who "lost" that now legendary Classic--By running Easy in the (then) 1 1/2 JC Gold Cup--and getting a strong challenge from Cryptoclearance--They took his edge away just like that---They were looking down the barrel at Sunday Silence and they took his speed back a notch! They cost Easy Goer his rightful place as one of the truly all-time great horses...

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joedunaway — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 02:20:38 GMT

Absolutely love IWR. Do wonder what is happening with the Assmusen trainee Captain Cherokee, thought we would see him in the Louisiana Derby.

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Draynay — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 01:16:18 GMT

Rock... Imperial Council was out for a jog first time at two turns. The Gotham was a stepping stone and finished 2nd with a 98 Beyer. That sets him up perfect for a 105 in the Wood and a 112 in the Derby. Its all about getting your horse ready the first weekend in May. The Gotham means very little if Imperial Council wins the Wood... agreed? Lots of horses have run well on the inner dirt at Aqueduct but it means very little come Derby time. The winner of the Wood will go into the Derby ready to run. I believe that horse will be a rested and ready Imperial Council.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

SolidSpun — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 01:14:11 GMT

Dray, do you even know what a furlong is? When exactly is IC going to catch IWR in an 8 furlong race? In another blog, you said that Stardom Bound should have "no more 9 furlong races....only 10 or more". She's never gone 9 furlongs. Only 8.5. And what series of races is a 3yr old filly supposed to follow to only have 10+ furlong races?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: The Total Package

zarvona — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 22:17:39 GMT

P.S. Now I think that its time for an article and a blog on the L.A. Derby, especially since you refuse to write an article or make up a fillies list before Pool #2. Where do the likes of the underwritten about "Uno Mas" and "Nowhere To Hide" really stand in this race? If the thought was that they were going to get hammered here, then why not opt out for another race in order to qualify instead of jumping in again with this bunch?? Do they have some hidden confidence that the writers are not capturing while looking elsewhere? Is this an "if we have a good horse it will show here", vs. "if we can't run 1 or 2 against this field then we may not belong and will have to start thinking 'off the Kty. Derby trail' and start looking elsewhere."?? Can "Giant Oak" have another mediocre run and still be a contender? Has “Terrain” just been off in hiding? Can “Free Country” really rebound against this field?? Is “Patena” going to have an “Imperial Council” Gotham run and blame it on inexperience? Is “Papa Clem” the “Buzzard’s Bay” next shipper story?? And then where does that leave “Flying Pegasus”?

Please write us an article. I for one am dying to hear your opinion. Downey is rarely right in his predictions, but I love reading his angles. But now I want yours, Steve.!