Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Greg J. — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 12:50:22 GMT

Draynay,

Well, I respect your opinion, and we will leave it at that, I will just go on the record and tell you, "The Pamplemousse" & "Freisan Fire" WILL go one/two in KD(Either Order)(I have loved these two since day one, NOT jumping on bandwagon), I will also throw R.A. in the mix(If she runs)....We will see who is right in about six weeks........

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Slew.em.All — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 00:35:03 GMT

LOL..Draynay,tell us all what was IC mile clocked at in the Gotham? No chance in the Derby? Sure,like u said FF had no chance in his La.Derby romp huh?

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

LDP — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 00:16:01 GMT

Barb,

There is no need to throw around insults. I know plenty about the sport, but just because i have a different opinion and you don't like doesn't mean you have to get evil over it. I never said your source was not creditable only that others said differently. You also i guess did not see or chose not to see the part where i mentioned that at first i did suspect something was up, but when nothing was reported or questioned didn't fight it. Also why would i ask Haskin, do i respect his opinion, yes, in fact i normally agree with him, but again right now i probably wouldn't. As i've been saying if you can find another source that has a time that is different or actually say there was something wrong with the teletimer, i'll admit i'm wrong, as of now there has been nothing reported.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Draynay — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 20:57:59 GMT

Greg J... I know what I said and FF has no chance in the Derby. The horse is simply too slow. Look at his times at a mile....slow. You don't win the Derby when you are running 1:37 miles at a 1 1/16th. You can argue with me all you want but when it comes to the Derby I am rarely wrong. FF = Pyro.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Barbara — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 20:47:49 GMT

LDP, I would say that far more than a comment on your lack of knowledge of the sport - that the 1:33.35 mile split error that has been picked up by those that report on the industry as gospel - and not questioned early and often - is an example of what is terribly wrong with this sport.

Will duly note that my "site" - the Equibase chart - is not as credible as your sources....the regurgitating media masses that copy results word for word without thought.

Ask Haskin if he thinks FF ran 1:33.35 mile...

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Ranagulzion — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 19:59:12 GMT

Karen in Texas: I can tell a classic race horse from experience and this Win Willy is the real deal both on pedigree and ability. That quality of his performance in the Rebel will stand up to the Arkansas Derby test providing he has some fast fractions to run at. Anyway he is definitely Derby caliber and the sky is the limit for this horse. If I were the owner, anybody offering less than $12M I would tell to call back after the Triple Crown series.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

2 time valley player of the year — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 19:39:10 GMT

Shakeouts continue, not ready to throw out Old F yet but wasn't impressed with his tiring performance.less then month and we'll get a real good picture. Fire looked very good no doubt and question is will they run Rachel in the Ark Derby? When does the goldophin Desert P arrive and what race will he run in?

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Mike Relva — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 19:05:47 GMT

GW_ Bushwacker

So from your "expert opinion" lol you don't label Smooth Air as a quality horse. Here's the problem of too many people with too little knowledge thinking they know everything!

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

stardust — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 17:30:24 GMT

Alan. What I normally do when I am doing the 3,4,5,6 picks is I check the records of each horse and their past races with the horses that they are racing against in the race. It is a lot of homework. I spend about a week with that.

Then on race day, I always change my mind. Horses are like us and they have on and off days. When I wager on just an exacta or a tri I always look at the post parade. I go by my gut on the horses with those wagers. I usually hit long shots that way. I have this really good eye for seeing a horse that I think is going to hit. When they are on the track, I totally dismiss the tote board and the odds. I only go by the horse and how that horse is acting. I have hit more exactas and trifectas that way. Another thing I do, is I usually don't do a wager on more than an 8 horse field. Sometimes there will be a long shot and I get this gut feeling that that horse is gonna hit. I always go with my gut. I have hit 60/1 odds before on a win doing that.

On the 3,4,5,6 picks I stack them. I do a 6 and only put ONE horse in each race. The one that I feel that will win it. Then I do the 3 picks as the races go on. If I don't hit the first horse, I change my 3 pick. On an on like that. The problem with those 3,4,5,6 picks is you can't watch the pp so it is harder.

I never do the multiple horses in one race on those picks. That way, if I hit I hit, if I don't, I don't lose a lot of money. I'll try to explain more of this in another post LOL. :)

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Draynay — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 17:03:24 GMT

gw_bushwacker you can try to knock last years class of 3 year olds but they are dominating Stakes races this year like it or not. You can also continue to knock Smooth Air but like I said he has won Stakes races on turf and at various distances on dirt which few other horse have done in the last 50 years. The MetMile will be the G1 win he has been looking for. Ranagulzion... No the Derby build up is not over but the winner comes from the Wood or Florida Derby and maybe Desert Party. Adding optional claimer Win Willy is a joke and the field will be watching the Derby from the same seats as you and me.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

LDP — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 16:39:03 GMT

Barb,

The reason i consider it is because i know a good enough horse is capable of running 20 second. It would take an incredibley fast horse to do so, as well as incredibley talented. We have no idea of what FF can do, Jones has said he is the best horse he's ever trained. As i said i was skeptical, but then again it's posted on NTRA and the videos show the same thing. Maybe the was something wrong with the teletimer, but if there was i'm sure that there would be something about it somewhere, not just N/A from one site. I could be wrong, but right now according to two different sources i'm not. As i said if you find anything that differs and is an acutal time or something that say that the teletimer was off, i'll gladly admit i'm wrong, but as of now there is nothing solid except for my two sources.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Karen in Texas — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 15:45:31 GMT

Ranagulzion---Brisnet is reporting that the owners of Win Willy turned down a $3 million offer on Saturday night. I thought he looked interesting as well, especially being by Monarchos.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

For Big Red — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 15:36:00 GMT

TO DRAYNAY: You missed my point. I didn't have to "bring Secretariat and John Henry into it." I used them because their past performances are easily available online.

The fact is that numerous horses have won stakes on both turf and dirt, at various distances, through the years since grass racing started to become popular in the U.S. roughly 50 years ago. Some are famous, like Secretariat and John Henry. Others are not, like Kiss the Kid and Christmas Kid (both by Lemon Drop Kid), and McCann's Mojave. He won eight stakes, mostly in California, on turf and dirt, ranging in distances from about 6 1/2 furlongs on the hillside turf course at Santa Anita to 1 1/8 miles on the main track.

Your claim that it's rare for a horse to win stakes on both turf and dirt, and at various distances, simply doesn't hold up.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Greg J. — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 15:31:14 GMT

Dray, I believe you said "If Freisan Fire wins I will NEVER handicap another race", You said this on the live blog Saturday, Then after He wins HUGE, in the toughest field on that day, In Horrible conditions on the track, YOU still give him ZERO credit, Say he is "Done and Over". He is not even on your top six derby list!

No offense meant here, But "Are you Crazy???"(lol), I can understand someone not liking a horse, but if you go by the facts and put your personal likes/dislikes for a particular horse aside, This Horse is Incredible right now and only will get better !

I have been high on Freisan since day one and so far I am correct about him, He is a "Freak", and hopefully you will realize this after he wins the Kentucky Derby!

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Ranagulzion — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:21:05 GMT

DRANAY: This year's Derby build up isn't over yet. The ghost of Monarchos (Win Willy) has suddenly appeared on the scene with the most explosive rally seen going two turns this season. Also remember that the backdoor entrance to the Derby (Bluegrass Stakes-Gr I) is there to let in perhaps a precocious grass/synthetic horse, so hold your six horses buddy. I tell you one thing, count Win Willy in. At last 2001 Derby winner Monarchos has thrown his spitting image. More anon.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

gw_bushwacker — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 12:20:30 GMT

For the record smooth air still hasn't beaten anybody. Once again he was placed in a very small field of nobodys. Someone had to win. LOL the favorite in the race was cool coal man who was another weak 3 yr old from last year. It isn't very impressive to build a resume against nobody. G2 doesn't guarantee a quality field. I've seen it mentioned here before and I'm starting to believe that races should not be rated until after the year and then only on the quality that showed up that day. draynay you argue one day that the races in the south mean nothing even though they have been graded stakes, then when it serves your purpose you argue that because smooth air won a graded race it makes him good. Labels mean little to me it's who you run against that counts. smooth air never was a "classic distance" runner and never will be. He may have won at 1 1/8th. but did so against nobody and in each case was struggling to the line. When I say last years weak class of 3 yr olds it pertains to who showed up on Derby Day and their abilities (or in this case lack of) to get the 1 1/4.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

draynot — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 11:48:38 GMT

draynay,

I'm chuckling a bit here this morning. I saw your "top 6" list and lo and behold the ones you listed 1-5 are the very ones I boxed in the Derby Futures Exacta Pool. I was most surprised you included Theregoesjojo in your group. Last I recall you did not like him at all. Let's hope they all get to the Derby in good order and we shall see from there.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

zarvona — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 05:39:10 GMT

"Friesan Fire" stamps himself as one who belongs, "Papa Clem" young green growing and coming along... "Terrain" a sneaky steady eddie... the rest in the LA Derby get dropped! Enough of waiting on 'Giant Oak' to perform!! "Pioneerof the Nile" got a workout while "Chocolate Candy" goes on siesta?? "Old Fashion" hmmm blame it on non need, the non speed, or the sloppy track? No one else was impressive this weekend other that "El Crespo" off the turf...

However, I suppose we will have to put higher up on the 'watch list' the likes of "Musket Man"; "Win Willy"; "Join The Dance"; and "Jeranimo"; and I suppose "Justdon'tcallmejeri" & "Fiesty Suances". ARE WE KIDDING OURSELVES??? Bring on "Sal the Barber"!! "Herr Mozart"!! and "Major Marv"!!! and let’s settle who the likely long shots will really be at this point!!

Guess that I will just be yawning until the Santa Derby, the Fla. Derby, and the Wood Memorial from here... but, as to a dozen?? right now I see a dozen half empty!! and only a 1/2 dozen that look for real... So I propose again, 'Weak Field'? or 'Strong Field'?...

P.S. I surely hope someone like "Dunkirk" adds some more excitement down the road at this point...

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Kat — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 03:47:49 GMT

Barbara - If FF ran that quarter in 20 seconds, he might very well have run (well sorta) the last 1/16 in 10 seconds. . . ; >)

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Barbara — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 03:44:16 GMT

Um, LDP, Equibase is the official chart caller for the industry, not my "sight" or site.

I'll guess it was a typo or a timer malfunction from Fairgrounds and no one thought quickly enough to question the obvious mistake right away.

I used the Equibase chart as the industry standard reference and the n/a should indicate to you there was a problem with the split. But how could you even consider a 1:33.35 mile split as possible w/ a 6f in 1:13 and change and a final time of 1:43 and change? Seriously??

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Householder — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 02:00:23 GMT

POTN just needs something to run at. He won't find himself ahead at the 1/2 again any time soon.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Karen in Texas — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:53:39 GMT

Alan--Thunder Gulch, one of the most consistent three year old colts ever, was a May 23rd foal. He was also only 15.3 hands, but won the Derby and Belmont and was third in the Preakness. He then won the Swaps, Travers, and Kentucky Cup later that season. He suffered a fracture in his prep for the Breeders Cup and was retired to stud.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

LDP — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:43:37 GMT

Barbara,

Go to NTRA, it has the times posted, and if you watch the video on Bloodhorse and look at the times it also said that FF ran the time in 1.33.35, i think that was. So is the tape wrong too? You thing says not available, well that may just be that site. I've watched the tape and been on NTRA and all say the same thing. Just because your site couldn't get their hands on the time doesn't mean a video and another site are wrong. I'm going by what two sources have told me his times were, and both are consistant with each other. If you think for a minute that when i first saw that i didn't think there was a mistake your kidding yourself. Both sights say it, you sight just doesn't give it. If you find another site that has an actual time, not just a N/A, then come and tell me.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Draynay — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:39:14 GMT

For Big Red... the fact that you had to bring in Secretariat and John Henry into the conversation says it all ... thank you! Slew... like it or not one of the 6 I posted above is going to win the Derby. My future ticket hopes its Imperial Council.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Second Wave Lands

Barbara — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:00:57 GMT

One more time, the 1:33.35 is a TYPO that exists for the mile split in LA Derby - at least one place and apparently has taken the web by storm - and the chart does not reflect it. Who in their right mind thinks any horse ran a 20 second quarter mile? Or that FF came home the final 1/16th in :10 seconds...