Destination Louisville

re: Destination Louisville

Deltalady — Wed, 16 Jan 2013 06:44:42 GMT

I can't add much to the comments here except to express my undying gratitude for your lengthy and detailed descriptions of each horse. I have printed it out, am studying it and using my highlighter. Not that I want to commit it all to memory, but at least when their names come up, I will have at least a passing knowledge. Some no doubt will fall out of contention for various reasons, and that will be the exciting part, to see where the "cream" is and what rises to the top.

You are the best, Steve. Appreciate you so much!!

re: Destination Louisville

White Plains Eric — Sat, 12 Jan 2013 13:16:18 GMT

Thanks, Coldfacts. I subsequently read that he may be pointed to the Withers at Aqueduct 2/2. We'll wait and see.

re: Destination Louisville

Davids — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 23:15:45 GMT

Steve, you can never please all the people all the time, no matter how hard you try. I must admit I have a bit of a giggle reading your tête-à-tête with Coldfacts. A little warmth at this time of year can be quite comforting.

Has anyone be watching the A. P. Indy colt "Powerful" train at Hollywood Park? As a yearling he was the spitting image of his illustrious sire so there were/are high hopes for him.

I doubt he is a Kentucky Derby horse but the Belmont should be a jewel to contemplate on. At this stage, Flashback, Normandy Invasion, Dewy Square, Power Broker, He's Had Enough, Orb, Bold Dance, Shaler, Dynamic Sky, and Battled are the ten for me.

re: Destination Louisville

Steve Haskin — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:53:06 GMT

Coldfacts, I will repeat my question, because you didnt answer it. In which category should I have put Footbridge, who is still a maiden -- Top 25 Derby contenders or Top 10 maiden WINNERS? Those are the only two categories I listed, so you tell me which one he belonged on.

re: Destination Louisville

Coldfacts — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:43:29 GMT

Mr. Haskin,

When Out of Bound made his debut he finished 4th beaten handily by So Brilliant. I highlighted this colt as a serious racehorse off his 4th race finish based on my knowledge of characteristic of a good horse. No surprisingly those that comment on my post ridiculed the colt and me with the exception of Forbidden Apple who saw the colt and liked him as well. In his debut he was ridden by Mr. Bejarano left him to ride Secret Circle the BC 2YO Sprint Champion in the Glll Sham Stakes. Out of Bound won the Glll Sham @10-1 and justified my assessment and became the buzz colt in CA. What caught my attention with OOB was the fact that at the start of the race he was off the monitor, totally uninterested in the event upfront. Suddenly this big powerful chestnut appeared on monitor as though shot from cannon. Ordinary horses do not make those kinds of moves while still running green. That was enough me.

Why this bit of history? Footbridge is not dissimilar to OOB. He showed me enough in his debut to tell that he is a very talented horse. He broke from the #2 post and was taking a lot of dirt and seemed uninterested. While stuck on the inside a colt trained by Mr. Assmussen ran by him and put on 6L as he went in serious pursuit of the leaders. Mr. Gomez switched to the outside and asked for an effort and the colt took off. He was angled 7 wide and displayed ground devouring strides to beat all except the two leaders who were long gone when he got going. The time of the race was a fast 1:14 and a bit. Footbridge is no sprinter but despite his greenness and inexperience came forwards willingly. When a colt with Street Cry as sire and dam by Dubai Millennium show that type of ability in a losing effort all 3YOs are on notice.

Between 2008 and 2009 I highlighted three horses on the now defunct MSNBC Message Board as ones to watch. Rachel Alexander was highlighted after her runner up finish the Debutante Glll as CD. Mine That Bird heading into the BCJ and Summer Bird after his maiden victory. All the horses took a leg of the 2009 Triple Crown.

I do not post certain statements from a position of ignorance.

re: Destination Louisville

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:28:07 GMT

I liked Peace Rules (and won some money on him at his Haskell).

re: Destination Louisville

Coldfacts — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 16:41:04 GMT

White Plains Eric

My pick in the MSW won by Revolutionary was the runner up Transparent. Revolutionary past and left him like he was glued to the ground. When I witness those impressive performances I normally pay attention to the horse when it returns to the winner’s enclosure. Revolutionary returned to the winner’s enclosure with more energy than he left the paddock. No 3YO would have defeated him that day. The average 8F split for the last 10 Derbies is 1:36 and a bit. Revolutionary ran 1:36.52 finishing in hand and came back pulling a bus.

Assuming his performance was based on his natural ability the Derby is over. However, since I am aware that such post-race energy levels are rare, I will way to see in what condition he returns for his next start.

re: Destination Louisville

Shelby's Best Pal — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 16:33:08 GMT

I read this list with great interest. And I took notes! I'm adding many to my Virtual Stable so I can keep up with them. Thank you for the interesting, invaluable information.

re: Destination Louisville

Coldfacts — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 16:21:37 GMT

ksweatman9,

No amount of focus on soundness will alleviate the issues highlighted in your post. I have long accepted the reality that horses bred for thoroughbred racing will invariably sustain various injuries associated with what they were bred to do. A horse was never designed to carry 126lbs in its back while running at speeds of 30-40 miles per hour over any distance. It is therefore doing something unnatural and for which it was never designed. It will therefore always be injury prone in spite of the great preventative measures taken horse loving professionals. A horse in its natural habitat has the luxury of stopping for a rest when tired. However, in a race it is usually under the whip and sustained drives to the line even when tire. I have long believed that whip whips should be outlawed.

re: Destination Louisville

El Kabong — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 10:41:59 GMT

Paula H,

I ran Mike's name past my brother. Ed didn't recognize him. He even looked up Mike's picture in his yearbook thinking he might have remembered a face but no luck. Ed had some biology in his background, an environmental engineer, but he only had two classes. More chemistry. Still, what a small world. Ed's roommate his first year was ND's starting running/tail back Eric Penick. That obligated us to get up at 7am on Sundays to watch ND replays hosted by Lindsey Nelson. Great memories. Outstanding effort by your brother to receive that award, you must be very proud of him.

Ranag,

Nice catch on the man o war/violence irony:) too funny.

re: Destination Louisville

ksweatman9 — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 07:43:03 GMT

Unfortunately, the million dollar question is how much of this potential talent will we actually get to see? How many of these gorgeous creatures will make it to the derby? How many will end the year on the track? How many will end up in the breeding shed? Or even more tragic, not survive at all? The main reason I hate to see I'll Have Another win HOY is because we have to start putting more value on soundness. Maybe that doesn't seem fair. Lord knows it isn't the horse's fault, but in order to bring about change, it's imperative we adopt a different value system. Physical break down is failure, even for the brilliant ponies. Greatness doesn't equate to winning a handful of prestigious races, then falling apart and being retired. Winning alot, losing a few, being strong and hanging in there for the long haul is the stuff warriors are made of. Greatness is within their grasp. Breeding has to put more focus on strength and soundness and put speed on the back burner. I'm sure there are other culprits, but watching these majestic animals fall like dominoes is disturbing to say the least and very hard to accept.

re: Destination Louisville

White Plains Eric — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 02:08:42 GMT

Revolutionary caught my eye in his first start at Saratoga. He was wiped out at the start that day and I thought he did well for himself to finish 3rd. I've been keeping my eye on him since and would like to think he has the talent and is starting to put it all together (8 1/2 length maiden score in his 4th start). Scott Pletcher has his "first string" horses right now and his bench runs deep. Steve, have you any insight on what Pletcher thinks of this horse and whether he'll be taking a shot with him against others who may have accomplished a bit more at this time? Or just too early to tell? Thanks.

re: Destination Louisville

Paula Higgins — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 01:27:47 GMT

Oh your welcome Steve! They were great reads and informative as well. I really enjoyed all three.

re: Destination Louisville

Ranagulzion — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 23:08:29 GMT

Steve,

To my shame I missed Ore Pass' dismal effort at Parx but think it not reflective of the colts true ability and will therefore keep him on my watch list for now.

re: Destination Louisville

Steve Haskin — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 21:40:23 GMT

Paula, sorry I missed your comment about the books. Thanks very much and I'm so glad you enjoyed them.

re: Destination Louisville

slee — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 16:50:54 GMT

Hi Steve - this actually applies to a blog entry from late last year, but I found the story C. W. Anderson wrote about Dark Star. I was pretty sure it was in "Black, Bay & Chestnut" and I was wrong - the story is in "Twenty Gallant Horses".

re: Destination Louisville

Steve Haskin — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 16:25:47 GMT

Coldfacts, this is what I'm referring to. You say I left out Footbridge. Where would you like me to put him? On the Top 25? On the Top maiden winners? He is a maiden after one start, and you write "If Foot Bridge runs to his pedigree the Derby field will be at his mercy." Really? That's your comment about a maiden? You are really that sure the Derby field will be "at his mercy off one losing race? I take it that is a cold fact.

re: Destination Louisville

Steve Haskin — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 15:31:54 GMT

Baby Jane, I wasnt that impressied with Eton Blue or the other division of that race. He'll have to step up next time.

re: Destination Louisville

Steve Haskin — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 15:27:53 GMT

Ranagulzion, you obviously missed Ore Pass's last-place finish in a Parx allowance race last Saturday.

re: Destination Louisville

Coldfacts — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 14:18:12 GMT

JerseyBoy,

“We are talking about the 2013 Kentucky Derby. This is a different field of horses from the ones that ran in previous Kentucky Derbies.”

I agree but was of the opinion that this was common knowledge.

“The issue is which horse in this year’s field deserves to be ranked on top.”

I gather Violence is more deserving than his more accomplished stable companion. I guess it’s a matter of opinions since their respective records are not being used as a measure. When the more accomplished is less deserving, the more deserving must have a significant advantage. Three races won by a combined 3 1/4L hardy qualify as stellar resume. I will commit to memory that more actually means less.

“History has no bearing on the outcome of a race.”

I disagree! When one sire line has accounted for 15 Derby and 35 other Triple Crown victories, it has a history of winning.

“The horse that finishes first is the one that runs the distance the fastest. I think this year in a 10-fur, 3yo race, that horse will be Violence.”

You are aware that a victory can be secured via a disqualification. There is a significant difference between ‘will be’ and ‘Likely to be’ This sire line does not have a stellar history of producing Derby winners consequently extreme caution is suggested.

The information about the speed ratings for the two colts at comparative distances makes for interesting reading. Based on your summation SB had no chance of finishing ahead of Violence at the Derby distance. He raced without Salix in his last start and that could have accounted for his struggles. Until Violence defeats SB he will always be the ranked second to him irrespective of speed rating.

“I would not draw any inference from your statement about Shanghai Bobby. I would rather you make that statement yourself.”

Shanghai Bobby should have been ranked #1. Now that I have acceded to your request I can specify the colt that is ranked #1 on my list. He is Mr. Palmer my name sake. That should give you a good laugh. He is a well-bred router that is trained by Bill Mott. Many adjectives have been used to describe me and you can add facetious to the list.

re: Destination Louisville

Coldfacts — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 13:22:40 GMT

Derby Dew,

I lost a bundle on Dewey Square in the KJC Stakes and my back up horse Fear The Kitten did not get a fast enough pace upfront to land a blow. I like this colt a lot. When $575, 000 does not cause a yearling to change hands, the breeders must think they have something special. Homebreds have won 6 of the last 10 Derbies so at least he belongs to a category that has dominated the race in the last ten year.

I am of the opinion that his rider made an error in the KJC by not engaging the leaders from the off as the pace was very slow. Based on his previous starts het appears better on the lead. I have one reservation about him and that is his dam sire. The sons of Storm Cat have not been stellar broodmare sires of TC horses. If not for Tabasco Cat the dam sire of Derby runner up Ice Box, Strom Cat sons would not be on the TC chart. This might very well be an insignificant issue if not for the fact that over 100 of Storm Cat’s sons were used as stallions. The broodmare band from this group should therefore be huge.

re: Destination Louisville

JerseyBoy — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 13:02:48 GMT

Man o' War

Alex's BigFan

Ok. To satisfy everyone, I propose that all those who like Violence agree to buy an exacta box in Pool 1.

The exacta box will in effect be 2 separate bets:

It is this:

He’s Had Enough-Violence

re: Destination Louisville

Cassandra.Says — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 10:46:50 GMT

Aha . . . once more you Yankees are writing down a Canadian two-year-old champion, although not an especially tiny one. You never learn!

BTW: Hotbloods are not defined by coldfacts.

re: Destination Louisville

Ranagulzion — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 03:47:24 GMT

Man 'O War, how's it that one with a moniker such as yours could be disturbed if a Derby winner has the name Violence? Beats me (LOL).

Frankly, I'd prefer if his name was altered to "No Violence" but maybe that name will be reserved for his sibling.

re: Destination Louisville

Paula Higgins — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 03:06:06 GMT

El Kabong, my brother graduated in 1975 from Notre Dame as well. I wonder if they knew each other? Big school, but his name is Mike Novell. He was a biology major and has worked for Save The Children for the past 34 years in Asia. He won the Father Hesburgh Alumni Award for service to people in need (I am paraphrasing here). Yes, this was a rough loss for Notre Dame. I guess it can't be like 1977 with Joe Montana winning the National Championship every year.

Man O'War, I don't like the name of Violence for a horse either. I don't totally get why anyone would name a horse Violence. In any event, it's not the horse's fault.

Linda in Texas, loved your play on words.

Nice to see Gary Stevens back in the saddle again. Should be interesting.