Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

LDP — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 02:15:51 GMT

Barbara,

I was just trying to make a point, that though the final time was slow, Dunkirk did have a reason, and with a better trip would've had a better time. As i said i'm not crowing the horse, just saying give him a chance. I am eager to see what happens this weekend, considering the amount of talent mixed with the number of questions. Basicly, i look at Dunkirk the same way i did BB last year, which is, hey thats a nice looking horse with some talent, lets see what they can do. Am i saying he's BB, no, not by any means. Just saying he's a good talented, unproven horse that i'm willing to keep on the bubble, thats it. Basicly that is all i'm trying to say in these posts on Dunkirk, give the horse a chance, the worse that will happen is that he'll lose and warn you not to bet on him come Derby day. Then again, he could whip the field and be a TC candidate, we just never know.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Barbara — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:03:39 GMT

LDP, wouldn't you have to study the trip of every other horse in the race - how far were they from the rail - were they checked at any point, etc. to extrapolate a theoretical winning margin for Dunkirk if all trips had been equal?

Given that horses often don't get to run the way they want due to other horses in the race or jock decision, especially inexperienced horses - they might prefer free on the lead, stalking, off the pace, inside, outside, etc. yet not get that trip that made them most comfortable - it seems to me this makes it impossible to determine "perfect" trip scenarios and winning distances in reality.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

LDP — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 22:07:00 GMT

Dray,

I'm saying if Dunkirk had had a trouble free trip and got a Street Scence kind of run on the rail. The way i calculated is that every path out from the rail equals 1 length, and he was caught very wide on both turn, like 10 on the first turn and wide again on the second, i forget how wide. I think like 4. With these little math tid bits it tell he lost about 14 lengths. He won by almost five, mathmaticly he would've won by like 18 lengths. On his time 1 length is abouth the equivalent of 1/5 of a second which means Dunkirk lost about 3 seconds. As i said i'm reserving judgement on the colt until i see him run against stake competion. I have most certainly not crowned him yet by any means, just keeping an open mind.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Barbara — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 18:42:51 GMT

On Point Given, he was far and away the best 3 yr old of 01. But you either put it all together in all 3 classics or you don't. In addition to Gary's hindsight to not be close to that pace, Bob also said he should have run him in 3 preps not just 2, and the paved highway track may have stung him, too.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

dbjr8 — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 17:07:15 GMT

Ranagulzion-

What does Point Given's being to close to suicidal fast fractions have to do with anything? That is on Gary Stevens, not Point Given. Point Given WAS, in MY opinion, the best 3YO that year. It is my opinion that he should have been the triple crown winner. I also don't believe Monarchos was anywhere near the caliber of racehorse that Point Given was-again, my opinion. Point Given won the Santa Anita, Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers at 3....The only time in his career he ever finished out of the money was that Kentucky Derby. He was 9-3-0-0 in his 13 starts. All 3 of his second place finishes came as a two year old. So as a three year old his only loss was in the Derby....so YES, I do believe that he should have been the TC champion-just because he wasn't doesn't change my opinion on that.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Barbara — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:40:21 GMT

Wanda, they will announce the late TC nominees around Mar. 28...

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Draynay — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:35:13 GMT

LDP...,. Dunkirk would have won by 17? Interesting calculations. Until he runs something under a 1:50 its hard to take him very serious... and he is not the first horse to go a bit wide into the first turn and win. Maybe you should watch again Big Brown winning the Derby by going 4 wide ALL the way around 1 1/4.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

LDP — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:28:27 GMT

Dray,

I know you don't like Dunkirk and i can see why, ie. his times, but he has an excuse for the time. He was extemely wide in that race and when i did the calculations a couple months ago, if he had clear sailing and had not been caught so wide he would've won by almost 17 lenghts and his time would've been more around 1.47 or 1.48. Now i'm not crowning the horse yet, but i'm withholding judgement on him until i see him run against stakes winners. Now he may very well be beaten, because i highly doubt we'll get a third year in a row where we get another super horse 3yr old like BB or Curlin, that just pops up and wins out of the blue. If we did like you said in an earlier post to mike you'd have to pick me up off the floore, lol. I will say that even if Dunkirk wins, i don't think he'll win the Derby, and not for lack of talent. This year i think will have a much tougher group of 3yr old in the gates on Derby day, and being as how i doubt that this horse is Curlin or BB, i think he'll be too tired and hit that brick wall everyone perdicted Curlin would hit in 07, but didn't. He's run two pretty tough races, considering he's had to overcome some major traffic issues, and the FL Derby won't be any easier and will take another top effort to win. For this reason, even with the five weeks i perdict if he win he'll bounce in the Derby. If he doesn't and he ends up placing top three or winning, i'll need a new bottom jaw since mine will have dropped ten feet. Pesonaly, i'm hoping that POTN, OF, or FF wins. Larry Jones deserves to go out a winner. You can give your thoughts on that analysis if you wish. Mike don't be shy you can critique too.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

LDP — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 21:33:36 GMT

Dray

Good, please stay in your happy place, it's a good place to be, lol. I just hope Derby day hurries up and gets here before i'm driven up the wall. The Derby IMO is a very exciting and fun race to watch, with every jockey and horse keyed into doing everything to the best of their abilities. This year should be extra fun with so many variables, like all the Cali horses and some of those coming from Dubai. I personally can't wait.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Draynay — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 19:50:44 GMT

The only thing that wasn't fast was Dunkirk's last race... 1:50.15 is simply not good enough and will get him beat by 8 in the Florida Derby.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Wanda — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 18:48:00 GMT

Interesting side note, Quality Road as of today is not nominated to the Triple Crown.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

DONNA — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 18:45:53 GMT

The Lanes End was nothing but throw away horses. Not a single one of them will vaguely or remotely be a contender. I guess the winner was a prime example of a trainer getting a horse fit and race worth after a lay off.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Wanda — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 16:45:08 GMT

Nice works put in by Quality Road and Dunkirk. I like that Quality Road worked 7/8 in a good time. Dunkirk had a bullet work at Palm Meadows which I think is not a fast track. Anybody know any different?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Householder — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 16:13:52 GMT

Another weekend of disappointments and upsets (e.g., Lane's End).

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Householder — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 16:08:05 GMT

Alan. Good work. Didn't Monarchos run a sub 2:00 Derby...3rd or 4th fastest ever I think.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

For Big Red — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 15:35:38 GMT

TO ALAN: Wow! Thank you SO much for that Beyer information. Much appreciated. I'll play around with the figures and see if I can spot any kind of pattern. If so, I'll share it here.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Barbara — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 02:48:58 GMT

Mike Relva,

you must have the wrong person? Pioneerof the Nile is my Derby horse. Barbara is hardly discounting him...

Barbara

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Draynay — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 01:43:09 GMT

Mike... I know you love Pioneer of the Nile but after his last race I would say its time to jump ship. We have seen the best from him and I don't expect anymore improvement. If he catches the Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita you will have to pick me up off the floor. LDP... its Derby time I am in my happy place! Next week we will know if Quality Road is all that and more.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Alan — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 23:56:29 GMT

Big Red- Beyer figures for the last 17 Kentucky Derby Winners in their final prep race in brackets, with * for horses born April/May

(the only one born in May was Thunder Gulch):

*Big Brown - 109 (106)

Street Sense - 110 (93)

*Barbaro - 111 (103)

Giacomo - 100 (95)

Smarty Jones - 107 (109)

*Funny Cide - 109 (110)

War Emblem - 114 (112)

Monarchos - 116 (103)

*Fusaichi Pegasus - 108 (111)

Charismatic - 108 (108)

Real Quiet - 107 (107)

Silver Charm - 115 (110)

Grindstone - 112 (100)

*Go for Gin - 112 (107)

*Thunder Gulch - 108 (101)

Sea Hero - 105 (91)

Lil E. Tee - 107 (107)

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Mike Relva — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 23:43:34 GMT

TO: BARBARA:

You are obviously fooling yourself if you discount Pioneer of the Nile.He's one of the few horses,(I said few not ten like some people on here) that I've been on from the beginning.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Karen2 — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 22:11:38 GMT

Right now I'm going with PM. His work was amazing and he was flying well in hand. He just seems like the real deal to me. Mature, strong,relaxed and he is ready to run.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

LDP — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 21:27:09 GMT

Dray,

If only you could explain all your posts while sounding so nice in them we'd probably get along much better. Im not being sarcastic in the least, you sounded calm in this post, when in your others you tend to sound arrogant, whether you mean to or not i don't know, but normally you sound arrogant. This time you stated your opinion cooly and calmly, nicely done.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Draynay — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 17:29:25 GMT

Tiznowbaby... and LDP let me try and explain my position. Quality Road has raced 3 times and it is important that you watch all of the races. He has raced in 12, 12, and 9 horse fields. He races out near the the front just off the pace. When he runs in the Kentucky Derby it will be simular to he previous races because of his early speed. At the first pole he will be 2nd 3rd or 4th just off the pace. The other 16 horses will be behind him and be no factor to him. Also... look at the splits Quality Road can run...he is very fast. Can he make it two turns and win? Don't know yet but based on his last race and the ease he ran a 1:09 flat and 1:35 flat I would say this horse is big trouble for those running 1:13 and thinking they are in his league. LDP... I like Desert Party for one reason and one reason only... A WET TRACK.

I don't believe any 3 year old can beat him on a wet surface.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

For Big Red — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:41:13 GMT

TO ALAN: Thanks for listing those Beyers for the last 17 KD winners. Those numbers work out to an average Beyer number of 109.3. Although I'm not a huge fan of speed figures, they can serve as a rough way to sort a field by relative talent. I think they're more useful with older horses than still-developing 3-yr-olds, since any young horse can improve suddenly this time of year as they fill out and mature.

The numbers I'd be more interested in are the Beyers each of those Derby winners ran in their last race before the Derby, but it would take a heck of a lot of digging to come up with that information. What I'd look for is any kind of consistent pattern; maybe something like all those KD winners ran a Beyer within x points of the 109.3 average in their last start before the Derby.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Louisville Shuffle

Karen in Texas — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 15:13:08 GMT

Kat---Forgot to thank you for the update on Papi Chullo the other evening. He deserves a happy life.