Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Uncle Smiley — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 23:58:53 GMT

Colfacts,

Moving into Kentucky in earl May.

I see battle emiting from: Verrazano, Shanghai Bobby, and Oxbow.

Is Game on Dude the one?

I know you are above being a prognosticator.

Yet, as expert, you must have a point of view, with reason.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

-Keelerman — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 02:57:53 GMT

Age of Reason;

"Otherworldly" is a perfect description for Qiaona's performance! And while the final fractions weren't all that impressive, I'll venture to guess that Qiaona ran her personal final half-mile in a very respectable time indeed.

Your reference to the old saying about turf form transferring well to the main track is very insightful. The thought had crossed my mind as well, but since Tiz a Minister still hasn't gotten an opportunity to try his talents on a fast track, I'm going to hope for the moment that he will run to his pedigree and successfully transfer that turn-of-foot to dry tracks.

That said, if Tiz a Minister and Omega Star were to meet next week in a one-mile race on a fast track, I would definitely side with the latter, for many of the reasons you outlined.

I've really enjoyed talking with you! Perhaps we could resume this conversation in the future, the next time one colt or the other is entered to race?

-Keelerman

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Secreteriat — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 19:24:50 GMT

Coldfacts,

I have a lot of respect for you.

You have a wealth of knowledge and I appreciate your input. You've helped many of us and I commend you for picking a 40 to 1 shot to finish 3rd in the Holy Bull and help me to $195.00 trifecta.

This business is all about $$$$$ and owners expect a return on their investment and Lukas is a pro at managing horses. Look at the top trainers in the business. Four of them where his assistants.

I know this first hand because 2 of those trainers train for us and learned all they know from the "Coach"

Keep your information flowing.

Respectfully

Secreteriat

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Age of Reason — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 15:26:10 GMT

Keelerman, I hope Steve will forgive me for continuing our discussion from the Holy Bull blog since it was taken down...Yes, Tiz A Minister's stretch run was very impressive--no sour grapes here! Honestly though, I thought Qiaona's stretch run in the filly counterpart was plain otherwordly. I know the closing fractions would indicate that the rest of the field was gasping for air inside the final furlong (and their final time was over a second slower than the boys despite similar fractions so Tiz A Minister's and Omega Star's beyers should come back good), but I still had to pick my jaw off the floor after the finish. There are a couple ways of looking the Cal Breeders colts race, and I'll just mention them in the order they come to me. First, you mentioned Omega Star might prefer synthetic/turf courses, being by Candy Ride; however, with the way he's ran over the Santa Anita and Aqueduct dirt tracks, and being out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, I see it as unlikely; also, the way O.S. seemed to hang slightly in the final furlong wasn't really reminiscent of a turf runner. Then too, you noted that Tiz A Minister has already ran well on turf, which reminded me of the old saying that turf form tends to transfer well to a sloppy track, and vice versa. That boded well for T.A.M., but it might also indicate that Omega Star would not do well on the lawn. And finally, some might say that Leparoux moved too soon (for once) on Omega Star, considering he was on a colt trying mud and two turns for the first time; but Denman did note that O.S. was "eager to run" on the far turn, so who knows? Regardless, I'll be sticking with Omega Star for the time being!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

cuba"s classic chef de race — Sun, 27 Jan 2013 02:21:39 GMT

I hope the experts got rich last year, because my only error was the Santa Anita track expressway feeling but this is not 2012. what can you do now? i hope to find who i am now because i know Boston harbor,mt livermoore,S.beauty,best turn,valid appeal,S.mesa,lion hart,etc etc will have to run out of their skin,this are a few names later i will tell you the rest.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

cuba"s classic chef de race — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 23:51:25 GMT

If Shanghai Bobby win the Kentucky derby!! Todd Pletcher should win the trainer of the century award,just an opinion to start warming up.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

cuba"s classic chef de race — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 00:42:28 GMT

My friend Steve, one thing is to take advice from an expert and other to be sure that he is right... Last year my identity was a little similar to the one i am using now but due to an Email change i decided to change my identity a little but the thing that has not change is my passion for this race. even the most ordinary person can bring an extraordinary hope. Steve, i do feel it's too soon to reach a conclusion about the possible outcome of this derby,but also the value could be great now if you are open to read all the comments and not only the experts. thanks god this is a free country.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Uncle Smiley — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 01:24:18 GMT

Coldfacts...

Uncle Smiley is my only identity on the web.

You have an understanding of racing that is deep.

Part of any day I am priviledged to watch live racing at a track includes having a good lunch.

Only seeking advice from an obvious expert.

So let it be written, so let it be done..

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

cuba"s classic chef de race — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 01:10:52 GMT

The most entertaining part is to see The horseracingnation.com 500 hundred horses to find the derby winner and he may not even be included in that monster list yet. wow!! i did find huge family deficiencies in about 490 horses on that list and that is a good sign to be patient.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Uncle Smiley — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 01:07:00 GMT

Coldfacts...

You are truly a fenom!

You possess a literary spirt that belies my suspicion that you are, indeed, several authors under your cognomen.

Glad to see that you backed off on your critique of Dominguez.

But I do agree with your assessment of Napravnik.

She is the best out there.

And, sincerely, you never had to get a hot dog for lunch at some track?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Slew — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 00:43:40 GMT

Coldfacts: just read yout post of

19 Jan 2013 12:47 PM.

"Zenyatta avoided the best colt of her generation in 2008." Exactly who would that be? If you're referring to Curlin, I beleive he lost the 2008 BCC to Gosden's Ravens Pass. And Zen went on to defeat the best males in the world in the 2009 BCC....and lost by a nose in the 2010 BCC. Rachael Alexandra did deservedly win HOY in 2009, but she never beat Zenyatta since she never faced Zenyatta on any track.

If you think I'm emotional, you betcha! I'm tired of people who won't give horses their due. 19-1, mostly G1 races....a re-incarnated Silky Sullivan.

With the likes of miler Goldikova, and Frankel, and So You Think, Midday, and the Coolmore arsenal, I get emotional about Snow Fairy too. She's a fast turf filly who constantly took on the boys and either beat them or ran up their heels to the wire. I don't think she ever got the credit she deserved, but whenever she ran, she stirred my heart like few others.

And I really think, Coldfacts, it's time you stopped trying to play the victim. You make outrageaous, unacceptable pronouncements, and are surprised when people react to your pedantic tirades? If you make a statement

and it's proven false, don't try claiming people are picking on you.

And you write comments so lengthy and so often, maybe you should take the time to spell check yourself...rather than keep making excuses of English being a 2nd language...after all, you've been commenting on these blogs for a few years already.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Coldfacts — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 15:10:57 GMT

Uncle Smiley,

I stated previously that your kindness was questionable but failed to add that your sarcasm was overwhelmingly clear. Your approach is not dissimilar to another contributor who posted his disguised ridicule under another ID.

Why would anyone assume that one’s perceived wisdom regarding flat racing would automatically extend to riders and restaurants? Sir, you might perceive me to be green but I am not a vegetable. I respectfully request that you select another contributor to play your games.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Coldfacts — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 13:52:18 GMT

Uncle Smiley,

You kindness is questionable since my response to your question defied conventional wisdom. I certainly do not possess superior wisdom regarding flat racing. It is obvious you access Mr. Haskin’s blogs regularly and you are probably using a new ID. You therefore would have noticed that I am regularly ridiculed for my positions. If I depicted wisdom my contributions would be embraced and not discredited. I am the blog’s rented mule.

Forgive me if I did not address your question in suitable a way. Mr. Dominguez is an excellent rider. During the winter meet in New York most of the top riders relocate to Florida with the big outfits but Mr. Dominguez does not. He therefore pick of the best mounts and is competing against mostly apprentices and second string rider. The quote ‘In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king’ is applicable. The jockey colony in the winter in New York is normally weak and the superior rider is king. His record is enhanced as a result of this. Would he be as dominant in either Florida or CA against top riders? Unlikely! He is a mere passenger on many of his mounts and will invariably be dominant.

I much prefer riders that face greater challenges and dominate.

You already knew the answer to your question before it was posed. My response merely highlighted why Mr. D dominates and my preference of the three riders' you proposed.

I avoided restaurants at all cost. Food sustains life and I have worked behind the scene!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Uncle Smiley — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 02:13:41 GMT

Coldfacts:

Your wisdom in matters flat racing might have no parallel.

Your answer to my changing leads jockey question defied conventional wisdom.

So now, I present my last challange.

Given three tracks, from NY to Delaware, where would your prefer to have lunch before entering the track?

The tracks are: Aqueduct, Parx, Delaware Park.

You cannot eat at any restaurants at these venues, but pick local venues within ten mile radius.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Coldfacts — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 19:59:04 GMT

Secreteriat,

Your happiness regarding your return on investment is understandable. I did not wager any of Mr. Lukas’s winners on the weekend. I could provide a list of horses trained by the HOF trainer that have been victims of his destructive program but it would be pointless.

A 2YO maiden that secures its first victory in its 9th start in a $500K race deserves to be given a break and freshened for a 3YO campaign. This very willing colt was asked to make his 10th start two weeks after securing the $300K winner portion of the purse associated with the race in which it broke its maiden. Although he finished 4th he was badly beaten and appeared very tired.

You might be a fan of the trainer but you do not have to substitute your pupils with $ signs.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

JerseyBoy — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 18:42:55 GMT

Slew:

The test answered the question-what effect does arguing over matters of no relevance to an issue, have upon the person who is convinced that the matter raised is irrelevant.

You only find out if you stop.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Bill Two — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 17:36:50 GMT

Steve, you put it perfectly. People really need to look at this puzzle from this perspective. Thinking outside the box - sometimes way outside - is usually helpful when it comes to this race.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Secreteriat — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 17:00:07 GMT

Coldfacts,

Lukas won the Lecomte and Smarty Jones this weekend.

My wallet is full.

What's in your wallet?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Slew — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 15:09:47 GMT

First, ever since Rock Hard Ten was shut out of the Derby for not enough $$, the clamor has risen from owners, trainers, and fans to establish a point system. (as is already established in other countries of the world.) I think we need to give it a chance.

Comparing times of different races, and ignoring weather, track conditions, surfaces, and ages of the horses,is a superfluous exercise that quickly becomes irrelevant.

Jersey Boy: I'd love to know what your doctor's test was. And...apparently, since the challenge made was never answered, your point on irrelevance is strong. (but I'm sick and tired of hearing about RAN getting compared to stallions who have been at stud for so much less time.)

Deacon and Jorge: It would appear Eclipse voters have a "What have you done for me lately?" attitude. Although Wise Dan certainly deserves accolades, I personally felt Royal Delta did more...as did IHA.

As to racing horses often....how did Rapid Redux do? What about Citation? Of course, the USA-bred seems more pampered and fragile. Euros will race often. One year at Royal Ascot, a top G1 horse came in 3rd in a Wednesday race. 24 hours later, he ran again and won the G1 race.

Trainers often feel it's a matter of what the horse needs. Most all trainers agree that running a race is the best exercise a horse can have. However, while some horses thrive on the competition, others do better with mild workouts on a daily basis between races. Just because a horse is not racing, does not mean he is not galloping.

Just my opinion.

By the way, where is DR. D.? Is he on another bender? or did Ted from LA shanghai him?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Coldfacts — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 23:08:19 GMT

Age of Reason,

I reviewed all Elmutahid’s races on turf as well and I think I need to walk back my assessment about him being a Turf/Synthetic type. In his turf races he is normally forwardly placed but does not have the finishing kick of a genuine turf horses. In his dirt debut he showed similar early speed but sustained his gallop throughout.

My only concern is the 40.34 recorded for the last three furlongs. The spits for his first 6F were comparable to those set in the race won by Ron The Greek. However, thereafter the splits were 2-3 seconds slower. I am not expecting a developing 3YO to run as fast as mature Gl horses but 1:50 to 1:51 would have signal Elmutahid as a serious Derby horse. It was his first race on dirt and he is expected to improve. He has been placed on my DWL.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Karen in Texas — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 21:44:51 GMT

Ranagul,

Oh, dear, I left out Secretariat's points for his DQ to second in the Champagne, so he gets +4 for that.

Sorry, Steve, I'll now get off this subject.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Steve Haskin — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 21:31:17 GMT

Coldfacts, you see to be very defensive. As someone who dals in facts, isit not a fact he has received a lot of ink here? Is that a derogatory comment? Did I not offer my own opinion about the colt as to why he possibly got beat last time out? Did anyone here say he didnt have a bright future? My comments on him were strictly positive.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Coldfacts — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 21:21:23 GMT

There have been some exchanges between supporters and me regarding Footbridge. Now I am well aware that he is still a maiden and probably should not be the subject of any exchange until he at least wins a race. In his two races the three colts that have finished ahead of him had at least two previous starts.

His most recent start was contested at a mile. To better evaluate this colt’s ability I compared the splits and final time of his race to those of the Glll Sham Stakes contested at the same distance on 1/5/2012.

Goldencents Sham Stakes - 23, 46.31, 1:10.06, 1:22.84, 1:36.50

Footbridge MSW: 22.83, 46.81, 1:11.25, 1:23.55, 1:36.23

I have been advises to cease and desist from this practice as it is meaningless. I agree it might not be the best to judge a maiden winner and runner up. However, if Curley Top who finished 1L ahead of Footbridge recorded a winning time of 1:38 and a bit on a comparative track, the prospects of both winning a stakes race without significant improvement would be very remote.

Most if not all the colts that contested the Sham Stakes had Salix administered. The winner Goldencents was making his 4th start and third at a mile or longer. The runner up Dan’s Legacy was making his 9th start and fifth at a mile or longer. Third place finisher Manando who led and was caught late was making his 5th start and had previously won at a 1 1/6M.

A colt that is attempting a mile in its second start and without the added benefits of Salix, sets racehorse fractions on the lead and is caught late in a time faster than that recorded by more experienced colts, certainly merits serious evaluation even with its maiden status.

In reviewer Footbridge’s recent race it evident the need trim down to a competitive racing weight as he appeared to be big, strong and heavy.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Age of Reason — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 20:25:54 GMT

You're right, Steve, as usual. I apologize for taking up too much space on Footbridge when there's a slew of other colts who are more deserving of the attention--namely, at this point, any colt who's actually broken his maiden I suppose. But becoming a fan of an as-yet unproven runner and rooting for it from the beginning is what puts joy in the sport, no?

Coldfacts, I might disagree with your asessment of Elmutahid as a turf horse, because at this point it would be speculation; after all, did he not just break his maiden on the main track at first asking after four winless efforts on turf (with an average turf finish of 5th)? Also, Elmutahid's pedigree gives no clear indication of what his preferred surface might end up being. Sire Street Cry of course is from the European bloodlines of turf stars like Troy and Machiavellian, but won the Dubai World Cup and his record as a sire of dirt/all-weather runners is no secret. By contrast, dam Alwajeeha (Dixieland Band/Seattle Slew)has the opposite profile: an American-style dirt pedigree, but she was a G1 winner on turf (QEII). I just finished watching all 5 of Elmutahid's races in chronological order, and I'm no trained eye but in spite of frequent rankness and other maturity issues, he seems to run more like the sterotypical dirt horse. Don't forget too that his 9-furlong time on Saturday was faster than the Sunshine Millions Distaff later on the card. Hopefully this one will give us plenty of excitement to cheer for down the road regardless!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: The Powers of Illusion

Coldfacts — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 19:44:41 GMT

Mr. Haskin

“Footbridge has gotten a lot of ink on here for a maiden.”

I gather from the above that too much time is being spent on a colt that has not yet won a race. Are maidens less worthy of evaluation than winners? I pose the question as there seems to be an emphasis on the maiden status of the colt as oppose to the promise he has shown.

If Footbridge was deemed to be an average maiden no time would be spent evaluating his prospects as a likely Derby horse. Based on his pedigree and performances to date there are those who believe he will be better than those that have so far finished ahead of him. Consequently, his maiden status is irrelevant as that will changes in due course. If he had won his last start there would not be much difference in his status as he would only be maiden winner.

NB: I agree with your assessment of the race.