Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

mike — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 02:33:05 GMT

steve,I probably had a beer or two also when I wrote ya.Ha! Still an old fashioned fan.Thought ramon d. didnt give him a great ride althought he was struggling in the bog at oaklawn that day.Think rachel alexandra can beat the boys?She is awful tough but I know its a different ballgame against the boys.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

zarvona — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 00:13:42 GMT

We need some clarification:

If "Big Drama" wins the Swale, is he back on the Derby hunt?

Is "Square Eddie" really back in the Derby hunt?

...whoops there would go 2 more potential gate slots per earnings right there!!

And, how about "Charitable Man"??

He would only need a 3rd in some stakes down the road!!

Their reentries would certainly cut down the several remaining open gate slots considerably!!!

Are they all alive for real again at this point?

Thusly, it would seem that "Dunkirk" really needs a straight up win in the Fla. Derby!, as a 2nd may not cut it!!!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Ranagulzion — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 00:09:21 GMT

COLDFACTS: I agree with you thet Stately Character has genuine classic/triple crown pedigree, unfashionable though it may be. His sire tends to throw late developers that get better as 4-5yos therefore his best races are most likely down the road. I think that the Belmont Stakes could be his "cup of tea" as the stamina in his pedigree could possibly make up for his class deficit going a mile and a half. Although the field is small it would be a major upset if he were to win the Florida Derby. Quality Road on a speed favouring track looks like a cinch (not disrespecting Dunkirk or Theregoesjojo).

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Coldfacts — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:31:19 GMT

Steve, Dunkirk is bred in the purple and if he runs to his pedigree he should be an exception colt. He will be facing a colt in the FL Derby that I think has the best pedigree of the 2006 crop. However, this colt has not been running to this pedigree. The colt is Stately Character (Pleasant Tap - London Valley)

This colt’s first four generations contain the winners of 10 Triple Crown races. Grand sire Pleasant Colony (Kentucky Derby & Preakness) His sire’s dam Never Knock who was also the dam of Derby winner Go For Gin, was sired by Stage Door Johnny (Belmont) The grand sire of his dam London Valley is Seattle Slew (Triple Crown) His second dam was sired by Riva Ridge (Kentucky Derby & Belmont) His third dam was sired by Damascus (Belmont & Preakness)

His sire Pleasant Tap has been one of the most versatile participants in the Breeder Cup history. He participated in four different races over a four year period. He was sixth in the 1989 Breeder Cup Juvenile; eight in the 1990 Breeders Cup Turf; second in 1991 Breeders Cup Sprint and 1992 Breeders Cup Classic. It appears he got better with age.

Stately Character is bred to get 10 furlongs pulling a bus. Sadly he appears to lack the class of the top colt in the FL Derby field. Could it be that he is a late developer like his sire? I have heard the term “Light bulb going on” used regularly. Could his pedigree light bulb get stitched on for an upset in the FL Derby?

Friends Lake won the FL Derby at very long odds. Can Stately Character do the same?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

GunBow — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:14:10 GMT

Zarvona, I do not think 3 years constitutes a curse. Giaocomo came out of the Santa Anita Derby to win in 2005.

In 2006, Brothers Derek, who ran 4th in the Derby, would have run 2nd had he not been forced 10 wide on the 2nd term; some of it is just poor racing luck.

In 2004, Lion Heart came out of the San Rafael (where he was 2nd) to run 2nd in the Blue Grass and Derby. I know his last race wasnt in the Santa Anita Derby, but he had wintered in California, won the Hollywood Futurity, and was running in California as late as March. Imperialism, wo was 2nd in the 04' Santa Anita Derby after Rock Hard Ten was disqualified, rounded out the trifecta in that 2004 Kentucky Derby won by Smarty Jones.

In 2003, Frankel's Empire Maker and Peace Rules, 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Kentucky Derby, had run in California over the winter before heading East for prep races. Peace Rules won the Generous and Hill Rise stakes on turf in November and late December in California, and then shipped to capture the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass. Empire Maker ran 2nd in the Sham Stakes, after which Frankel concluded that he didnt care for the Santa Anita track. Empire Maker went on to win the Florida derby and Wood in his next starts. Another star of the 2003 crop, Ten Most Wanted, ran in So. Cal and then No.Cal before romping in the Illinois Derby and running 2nd in the Belmont.

While 2002 Santa Anita Derby winner, Came Home, ran poorly in the Kentucky Derby, a Santa Anita Derby also-ran, Proud Citizen, ran 2nd at Churchill. In between his starts in the Santa Anita and Kentucky derbies, Proud Citizen won the Lexington.

In 2001, Kentucky Derby 3rd place runner, Congaree, had come from the maiden and allowance ranks at the Santa Anita winter meet (winning an allowance in late March) before beating Monarchos in the Wood. Point Given, the 2001 Santa Anita Derby winner, disappointed at Churchill, but came back to romp in the Preakness and Belmont en route to his Horse of the Year.

Fusaichi Pegasus, the 2000 Kentucky Derby champ, wintered at Santa Anita and won the San Felipe in March (over eventual Santa Anita Derby winner The Deputy) and then Drysdale took him on the road to win the Wood.

Every kentucky Derby winner between 1997 and 1999 had run in the Santa Anita Derby, although none had won the Santa Anita Derby (Silver Charm 2nd in SA Derby, Real Quiet 2nd in SA Derby, Charismatic 4th in SA Derby). Free House and Indian Charlie, the 97' and 98' Santa Anita Derby winners, both ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.

Grindstone, the 96' Kentucky Derby winner, had wintered in California before winning the Louisiana Derby and running 2nd in the Arkansas Derby. Cavonnier, who lost to Grindstone by a nose in that 96' Kentucky Derby, had won the Santa Anita Derby.

Timber Country in 95' came out of the Santa Anita Derby, etc...

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

For Big Red — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 17:30:21 GMT

TO STEVE: You asked where I dug that up and how. Answer as to where is on Braulio Baeza's website. How...I was digging for news about whether or not Friesan Fire is at Keeneland, and what Mr. Jones has been doing with the colt. Couldn't find anything, and happened to enter a now-forgotten search term in Google. Your Dr. Fager-Damascus article is one of the links that came up.

It was a wonderful, nostalgic read -- and made me even more grateful that you're doing this blog and interacting with us so generously. Thank you again. :)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

zarvona — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 04:03:11 GMT

Karen2

Hint…Google DOSAGE INDEX for a better understanding…

If memory serves me, after Steve’s blog regarding the result of the Louisiana Derby, I stated that my ‘sack of potatoes’,--Steve’s coined phrase as a result of some many early watched names that I once listed that I was looking out for as a future watch list,--had been thinned down to a ½ dozen and that I still regarded those few much higher than the others. Repeating those, they were the “Three Amigos” still in California, “Pioneerof the Nile”; “Chocolate Candy”; and “the Pamplemousse” along with “I Want Revenge”; “Quality Road”; and “Friesan Fire”. Additionally, that I had and have a high regard still for “Dunkirk”, “Papa Clem”; and “Imperial Council” still. I am also keeping a watch on about 50 others still, many of which will never make the Derby, but will likely be entries here and there farther along during the year at various distances no doubt and possibly in the other remaining majors, as three year olds develop differently and some return from injury, or layoffs, and whatever. Last year we saw many defections from the Preakness from those that ran in the Derby and thusly we will likely be looking again at a near wholly different new field once again when the Preakness rolls around. Also, it might be noted that I don’t like getting surprised by the likes of a late arriving “Da Tara”!!. Thusly, should the likes of “Dunkirk”, or “Imperial Council”, or “Petena”, or “Take the Points”, or even “Papa Clem”, for example miss the Derby cut, they seem as prime candidates to jump into the Preakness with hopes of chasing down the ultimate Derby winner who will likely attempt to complete the silly Triple Crown circuit.--$5,000,000.00 was more of an incentive, as if I won the Derby now with a $3.7 million dollar purchase I would automatically skip the Preakness myself as I have always contended that the Preakness is scheduled too soon after the Derby, a trait easily correctible!--

Thusly, as to your question, I think very highly of “The Pamplemousse” and consider him at the moment in my top 3!!! He may yet be this year’s ‘freak’, that is, if one’s definition of a ‘freak’ borders my own. I am one who has no reservations about his non dirt running. My feeling has always been that a good horse should be able to run on any surface! Many don’t agree with that thought since the introduction of artificial surfaces, but I subscribe to it. We have already seen this year horses move from synthetic to dirt without any problems with several actually improving over dirt. Just think, if “The Pamplemousse” can run a 1 1/8 in 1:47.86 over artificial,--which is probably like running a 1:49.50 on dirt or over some other eastern surface calculating in ‘variance’,--and can thusly improve moving to dirt, well the sky is the limit in my way of thinking! I also don’t see the distant issues in his breeding that some others have pointed to. So, I think he is in top the three, well, that is, in my own top 3!! Again, I like to carry 5-6 hopefuls into Derby Day and play exactas, but should I get ‘a real price’, thusly high odds on one of my choices, a WIN-PLACE bet is always easier to pick and cash than guessing at an exotic!! Believe me I had no plays with “Denis the Cork” on them last year!!! However, should he win the San Anita Derby at a good time and by 3 lengths or more, likely he will one of the Derby favorites and will thusly not fetch such a good price alone!

My fear, however, is the ‘California Curse’!! That being that California entries have failed in the more recent Derbies. For example, I hammered, “Colonel John”,--whom Baffert had claimed “was the best horse he saw out of California” last year and whom was a renowned closer,--behind “Big Brown”. Oh, I hit “Eight Belles” behind “Big Brown”, as I track fillies and because my brother hammered her for the upset, but I had “Colonel John” behind him 18 times and a California entry let me down again. Was it the horse?? The Trip??? …or “the Curse”!!!???

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Steve Haskin — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 02:21:16 GMT

Big Red, wow, where did you dig that up from, and more important, how?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

GARY — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 01:55:34 GMT

Liked your article on chocolate candy,

the dorf is like an assembly line in

Detroit in the sixties,but after all

those winners,his name never seems to pop up with those med/positives that

plague all the other successful trainers,maybe he's due.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Karen2 — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 00:54:54 GMT

Zarvona: Very interesting post. I had to read it twice but it sounds like you have some science behind your picks but are also open minded to other factors. I don't understand DI or many of the other angles used to handicap. Just out of curiosity... what is your thought on Pamplemousse?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

For Big Red — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 00:15:47 GMT

TO STEVE: Ooops. In my previous post, "I am content to with than outcome for them," should read "I am content with that outcome for them." Note to self: proofreading is your friend.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 00:15:22 GMT

I'm interesting to see how things turn out for Square Eddie as I read that he is or has returned to work and is still working for the Derby...

I hope that they do not push him too hard for the race, but if he makes it in good order sound and everything he'll be my under the radar horse.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

For Big Red — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 23:06:41 GMT

TO STEVE: I just happened to come across an old article of yours here: www.brauliobaeza.com/.../article_27.htm

November 30, 1991, A Look Back At Two of History's Unsung Heros, Damscus and Dr. Fager Rivalry Made Headlines in 1968

I was a starry eyed, horse-crazy kid then, and I remember those Buckpasser, Dr. Fager, Damascus years well. I loved all three of them.

All of them, plus In Reality, whom you mentioned in that 1991 article, became important pedigree influences. Now, all these years later, I am content to with than outcome for them.

I miss the days when great horses carried that kind of weight and still blazed across racetracks into legend.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

zarvona — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 20:31:23 GMT

It has repeatedly been mentioned that the Kentucky Derby in such a large field and at a distance of 1 ¼ miles is a race like no other. It is also a race like no other for a horse player to get right at the window. You can lose money for the rest of the year, but you will never forget cashing the winning bet on the Derby itself.

Also, it has been mentioned, that a horse with a “Dosage Index” figure at some set standard of 4.00 or above has a much lesser percentage chance to be the Derby winner,--that is, since DI became a consideration, and--thusly since the average U.S. ‘DI’ is 2.40, where high DI (s) in the neighborhood of 3.90 and above must therefore be more carefully scrutinized.

Furthermore, it is often also been mentioned, that horses bred down lines to “Storm Cat” have a lesser chance to get the distance and therefore be in the winner’s circle at a 1 ¼ . And, I must admit, that I never understood the why behind the “Storm Cat” gene to extreme distance problem, although it has repeatedly reoccurred as a Derby factor in recent history. And especially so, as “Storm Cat” was by “Storm Bird”-(Can.)-[“Northern Dancer”-(Can.)], which have produced other distance horses, and on the damn side by “Terlingua”-[“Secretariat”];-[[“Bold Ruler”]], and etc.

Notably, this is also all in the age beyond the use of steroids, however that it is that those drugs did affect a horse’s durability and/or stamina coupled to the more modern speed trend in breeding to cope with a 1 ¼ run, and as such, all excluding running in and from heavy traffic itself of course.

Are such rules regarding exclusions absolutes? NO. But, notably, although these are not totally hard and fast rules, they are just identifiers to general ‘non-plays’ by percentage that you, or one, might want to consider the percentage of the logic behind as such. Yes, “Giacomo” won the Derby and had a higher DI than 4.00 and there were several others, but only a few over the years. Also, “Blue Grass Cat”, a “Storm Cat” bred, generally broke the non-“Storm Cat” bred distance capable consideration rule, when he went on to finish 2nd in both the Derby and the Preakness.--I personally have always wondered if the ‘strange non-distance getting “Storm Cat”’ gene could be canceled out by another crossing gene from say “Rahy”? In any event, throwing out every animal for just such reasons may not always be the winning play, but surely they are high “percentage considerations”.

In any event, one should take in and take a closer look in scrutinizing the lists found below from this year’s crop should any such show up in one of the 135th Derby gates--as some have already qualified technically earnings wise--and give them some extra thought before spending your money at the Derby window. “Pioneerof the Nile” DI 3.89;--(notably still in my own top six! and still high in Steve’s top ‘Derby Dozen’)--“Desert Party” DI 3.90--(notably still in Steve’s top ‘Derby Dozen’);-- “This One’s for Phil” DI 4.00; “Munnings” DI 4.00; “Flat Out” DI 4.00; “Musket Man” DI 4.00; “Scorewithcator” DI 4.14; “Mr. Fantasy” DI 4.20; “Win Willy” DI 5.00; “Mine That Bird” (g) DI 5.22; “Old Fashioned” DI 5.22; “City Style” DI 5.67; and “Beethoven” DI 5.86; and etc.

As to this year’s crop of those including “Storm Cat” breeding, that is, either through “Giant’s Causeway”, “Sky Mesa” via “Caress”, “Sage Cat” via “Tabasco Cat”, or “Speightstown” via “Silken Cat”, and etc., are: “Giant Oak” (now off the trail); “Notonthesamepage” (now off the trail); “Beethoven”; “Join In the Dance”; “Munnings”; “General Quarters”--although a winner at a 1 1/16;--“Musket Man”--now notably a winner at a 1 1/16;--“Hold Me Back”--now notably a winner at a 1 1/8 !!!!;--and “Desert Party”; and etc.

Moreover, let me once again emphasize, that these considerations are all relative to considering not just runners, but runners to a winner and at the dreaded distance of a 1 ¼ !!!!

Therefore, since the likes of a “Beethoven” and “Munnings” notably appear on both lists, they were easily tossed! And, outside of the “Dubai Drought” itself,--(that being that NO Derby entry from the Sheik’s vast Southern Hemisphere stable has yet hit the board in the Derby and as)--“Desert Party”, who also falls near to or within both of the above considerations, thusly, in my play book, he too is tossed! Hopefully, this has clarified my thinking regarding one of Steve’s continual top dozen pets, his still #4 “Desert Party”, being one that I personally, ‘chucked long ago’.

If one could logically play a near “all-all Derby exacta” and profit, yes I too would not throw out hardly any such ‘qualifiers’ as they all are relatively in the near top 30 in the country distance wise or outside. But, since one does have to limit one’s playing field when wagering, this is just one of the tools that I follow personally. Following, such thinking,--or not,--you or one must do so at your OWN RISK yourself, as I make no guarantee (s), as neither am I God, nor am I God’s single only gifted horse picker,--(like those of some other unmentioned names that I will not list from this very blog).--But again, I am just a light horse player and a two-to-three year old Pre-Derby tracker and picker who does love to cash on Derby Day and who does love to give myself every angle to success to do just that.

Also, I don’t mind sharing my thoughts, as my reading ministry does not reach the entire Derby betting universe and thusly my wee thoughts will not affect the odds of yours’ or any other horse come Pool #3 or on Derby Day!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Steve Haskin — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 19:18:23 GMT

Jeff, last week I had to get Win Willy in the Top 12, so I had them tied at #12. Not wanting to do that again, I had to drop one of them, and Take the Points' plans were uncertain. Pletcher said today he's likely running in the Blue Grass Stakes, which is probably a wiser move. I'll see how the top 12 shapes up next week after the Fla. Derby and UAE Derby. But I want to get Hold Me Back on there as well.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Barbara — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:58:19 GMT

Steve, you may have already posted this - I am Derby info drunk - but doesn't Chocolate Candy have good Thoro Graph and Ragozin numbers?

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Jeff A — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:15:15 GMT

Steve -- what happened to Take The Points on your derby list ??

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Rggc — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 17:01:12 GMT

Steve, I bet you are correct in saying it isn't Kiaran's decision to run Charitable Man. I don't know the man, but just by the slight insight I gained by reading about him, I believe he is a very compassionate man; who wouldn't knowingly put an horse at risk for injury or burnout. Many times we as fans forget that the man behind the trainer has got control of the purse strings and it is not the trainer that has the last say. Unfortunately, the trainer usually takes all the heat when things go wrong.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Karen2 — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 15:17:27 GMT

Matthew W: I am on board with you and the Pamp. He has captured my interest and has become my early favorite. His effortless stride,high cruising speed and playful personality makes him a joy to watch. I am slightly concerned with the distance but something to keep in mind. In the Sham, the fact that he was tired didn't show until after the race. He was all on until he was eased. He didn't tucker out in the race. I think he has a lot of heart.

Steve...love the stories behind the "stars". That's what makes this game so much more than a horse race..I echo Predicts comments. Very nicely put Predicts.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

ElusiveQuality8 — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:56:53 GMT

Steve, thank you! Great read and just the kind of nuanced article that puts some balance to all of the other data/articles/view coming at the reader from all directions this time of the year. True writing is an art and you bring that to the blog-o-sphere. Regarding your updated Derby Dozen, I believe with Quality Road the plan called for three works between the FOY and the FL-Derby and Jerkens was limited to two (versus the 2 and 1 you currently have). I would imagine putting the 7F into him may be partly due to the "missed third work in the plan" and like Jimmy said, getting him ready for the one mile and 1/8.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Coldfacts — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 11:03:23 GMT

Steve some very interesting stories and issues covered in you piece. It appears you are reluctantly open to the Churchill Downs imitative of offering one spot to a European horse via a win and you are in policy. The amount of negatives cited in your post suggests you are pessimistic about its potential for success. I understand your concerns but you must be aware due to your long term coverage of the Kentucky Derby that it is not an ordinary horse race. Below are some views on one of the issue you cited:

“Why this sudden urge to have a European horse, especially a non-stakes caliber horse”

A lot of European buyers patronize our yearling sales. They buy a lot dirt pedigree that has done well on the turf in Europe, but some have not done well. Some of the horses that do not take to the turf are likely to be better than the bottom five or ten that line up in the derby field annually. What is wrong with offering another option to our European counterparts?

The horse that won the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes at Kempton was beaten 2 lengths in his second start by eventual Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner Donativum.. Are you implying that a 2 lengths loss to Donativym makes Mafaaz a non-stakes caliber horse? Are you also implying that Aiden O’Brien’s selected his non-stakes caliber 3YO for entry to this race? We have seen a number of stakes caliber horse race on dirt in the US and they have been miserable failures. Certainly the horses that were selected for the Kempton challenge were either the ones best suited to synthetic tracks or had previously performed well on the surface

What could be the worst result for a non-stakes caliber European horse? I guess it would be a last place finish. Well, with highlighted negatives this horse would have to overcome i.e., new track/country, different starting gates, different loading procedures, different pace and new surface, a last place finish would be understandable. However, I think it is worthwhile noting that being a stakes caliber horse does not guarantee a favorable result. Many stakes caliber horses are incapable of seeing out 10F on the 1st Saturday in May. The most powerful stable in the US over the last 5 year sent the following stakes winners to the Derby: 2006 - Keyed Entry (Won Hutcheson Sk. (G2), NTR 1:27.12 , he finished last; 2007 - Cowtown Cat (Won Illinois Derby (G2) & Gotham S.(G3) he finished last; 2008 - Manbo (Won Blue Grass S) he finished last.

Now let’s look at two non-stakes winners and possible non-stakes caliber horses: Giacomo entered the Derby with only a maiden victory to his credit. He was not considered stakes caliber and won at 50-1. Sir Barton lost all six starts as a 2YO. He could hardly have been considered stakes caliber as he was sold for a modest amount. He made his 3YO debut in the derby as a rabbit for his stable companion and won by five. Each year there are a lot of stakes caliber horses that do not win the derby.

A number of the horses in Kempton challenge costs their owners large amounts and were never considered non-stake caliber at purchase. Some of them may be late developing 3YO. To conclude that they are non-stakes caliber is painting them with a very broad brush. The European lines are loaded with stamina and it is unlikely that if they take to dirt that they will not be competitive. A number of derby entrants are at Churchill Downs because they have the graded earnings and for the novelty. A lot of us would prefer to see a stamina filled horse from over the pond than a six furlong stakes caliber horse that is at Churchill Downs for a party and not a horse race.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Matthew W — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 05:44:10 GMT

Steve I just hope The Pamplemousse has something left in the tank for Kentucky...This is a horse who TRIES, thus, he's a horse who lays it all out there--Not sure I wouldn't look for something say, six weeks out---Cuz you already know he's gonna show up/be tough....Julio is having a huge year! Never been on TC Trail...The Pamplemouse runs fast early (on his own) then opens up on them---That he comes back tired is TELLING---he tries hard--in other words, "handle with care"....also, with Freisan Fire training up to Derby, will he be rank/on engine with Pamp? More food for thought....

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Steve Haskin — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 05:34:56 GMT

Actually, Mike I see you did say I had too many beers. OK, thats funny.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

Steve Haskin — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 05:24:26 GMT

rggc, thanks. I doubt very much this is Kiaran's decision. Remember, the owner is the same guy who made the bad decision with Denis of Cork last year after listening to his two advisors. This decision would be even worse than that one.

Black Mamba, you mean the Preakness. I'm a firm believer in foundation for the Derby, but it's not as important for the Preakness if you have a horse as talented as Bernardini. But there's a reason the Derby winner usually does so well in the Preakness. Horses get on a roll. But any lack of foundation will come back and bite them in the Belmont.

No problem, Mike. Now if you said "I" had too many beers, that would be funny.

Derby 132, I heard the same about West Side Bernie. It's desperation time for some of these trainers and owners. Wy not give him a chance to bounce back?

Gun Bow, that would be bad a decision in my opinion. I know Mott wants to run in the Blue Grass. Why pass up the opportunity for a grade I when there's no guarantee he'll handle the dirt? Flying Private is getting better and he's proven on dirt and bred to run long, so he could be one to watch.

Karen and Predict, I thank you for your kind words. Predict, you're making me blush :).

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Simple Twists of Fate

GunBow — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 05:15:03 GMT

Black Mamba, did you mean the Belmont (instead of Preakness) when you liked the lightly raced Bernardini over Barbaro?