Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Mike Relva — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 20:04:46 GMT

TO:Barbara

May I borrow your comedy writer? lol

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Barbara — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 17:38:18 GMT

Mike, after you get a massage for your arm after that big reach to pat yourself on the back, are you noting that I have no problem giving ANY horse his due whether I picked him or liked him?

If so, thanks.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Mike Relva — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 16:27:57 GMT

TO:BARBARA

If you notice I selected QR to win for the last two weeks. What I can't stand is many so-called experts thinking they know everything about everything and then using a "spin" when they are wrong.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Karen2 — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 14:50:40 GMT

I don't see the hating your referring to Dray. I think QR is a very impressive horse however he just raced on Saturday which makes his win fresh. How can we forget about IWR or FF?? IWR ran a very impressive race. Plus, I think Gunbow may be on to something with the Pamp. Horses just don't do what he has done on synthetic. Great point about Well Armed. If the Pamp likes the dirt he may very well be a monster. In my opinion horses have to be fitter and have more stamina to run on synthetic. He may have a weaker female family but its been proven that that doesn't always mean everything. He sure adds to the drama of this years derby. Personally, I like the horse and enjoy his running style. Should be interesting.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Barbara — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 14:11:18 GMT

Dray, you have Brisnet confused w/ BSF. Some of us had to sort that out last week for ourselves. Dunkirk had a 98 Beyer last out. The 107 is a Brisnet figure.

That aside, I think the Beyers at Gulfstream are just wacky this year as bloggers and other posters have noted.

I don't think anyone hates your boy. Although the hype for Dunkirk on ESPN did verge into inanity pretty quickly. I bet QR jumps to the top of most Derby lists now.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Draynay — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:29:53 GMT

A 103 Beyer ? Lol... you have to be kidding so.... Dunkirk gets a 107 for running a 1:50 + but Quality Road gets a 103 for setting the track record? Nonsense... now you know why Beyer figures are to be taken with a grain of salt at Gulfstream. Two great horses set records and instead of talking about the horses we are talking about the track like they shot steroids into the track. The hating of Quality Road has begun and it was obvious on ESPN... all they wanted to talk about was Dunkirk a horse that had won NOTHING leading up to the Florida Derby. Even after the race Dunkirk got more face time. Now with each win Quality Road haters are going to increase and you will hear things like, "he's a good horse but he is no big red."

Let the hate begin.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

GunBow — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 04:01:29 GMT

Quality Road's Beyer for the Florida Derby is a 103.

Dunkirk- 100.

Jojo- around 90.

The Beyer came up a little lighter than I was expecting. It appears that the Beyer team felt the Gulfstream track was sooo fast that 1:47 and 3 was not extraordinary. Interesting.

If one takes it at face value, Quality Road regressed about 5-6 lengths off his Fountain of Youth (113 Beyer) and Dunkirk didnt improve nearly as much from his second to third start as he did from his first to second start (78 Beyer in his 1st race, 98 in his 2nd, and now a 100).

Beyers in the 100-103 range are still solid, but they certainly dont tower over other contenders. I Want Revenge ran a 113 of his own, Friesan Fire ran a 104, The Pamplemousse 103, Win Willy a 102,General Quarters 102, Rachel Alexandra 100 and 99 (eased up), Imperial Council 98, Hold Me Back 97, Pioneer of the Nile 95.

And The Pamplemousse ran that 103 figure on a synthetic surface in which even grade 1 older horses rarely run over a 103 (Einstein a 100 for the Big Cap, Well Armed 89 in the San Pasqual and 99 when 2nd in the San Antonio).

Beyers arent everything, though.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Saratoga AJ — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:13:29 GMT

Karen in Texas:

Forego was 17 hands tall. I believe I read where QR is the same...17 hands. Sure looks that way.

By the way, the tallest horse I ever remember seeing was Cox's Ridge, another stakes winning horse of the 70's. He was over 17 hands. Fortunately, he wasn't a gelding like Forego and had a very successful career at stud.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Speedball — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:09:53 GMT

Karen in Texas-I think Quality Rd is 17 hands. He reminds me of Refrigerator Perry that used to play pro football. He's built like a brick----house!!

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

zarvona — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:04:36 GMT

Boy, we are really operating on real anti-cimax from here!!! The only mysteries are 'Will "Dunkirk" change strategies and attempt to qualify earnings wise running again? 'Will "Big Drama" or "Square Eddie" jump back in? 'Will "Charitable Man" make another stab? Why do we all Dubai results earnings count toward our DERBY!?!?! MAKE THEM earn it here, U.S. Graded winnings ONLY!! Make the winners of the Illinois and the Arkansas 'win and you're events' to make them significant! The Claifornia Derby won't reveal anything we don't know already and neither should the Wood. The winners of the Ill. and Ark. Derby's will likely only be attempting to accrue earnings qualifications, and are we really gonna respect the suprise winner anyway? Like at this point I am feeling, who cares. Earnings fighting for 2 remaining slots seems insane depending on who might jump in vs. those that already have the earnings and might declare in. And there isn't anyone out there we haven't identified and scrutinized. Just wake me up again on May the 1st.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

LDP — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 00:48:04 GMT

Karen in Texas,

I heard from one of the announcers on ESPN yesterday QR is about 17 hands tall. That's a big boy, lol.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Karen in Texas — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 20:30:55 GMT

Saratoga AJ and Speedball---Quality Road does look big and mature--reminds me of a 4 year old as well. Is he as tall as Forego though? How many hands is he--anyone know? To me his chest and lower neck look like he may have tremendous heart/lung capacity, which bodes well for any athlete.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Ranagulzion — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 20:17:57 GMT

COLDFACTS: Your analysis of the comparative speed fractions is compelling. Keep up the good work buddy.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Speedball — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:29:14 GMT

Gun Bow,

I agree with your assessment of Quality Road. I think he's going to win the entire shooting match. His muscular build reminds me of a 4yr`old, not a 3yr old. I think that he has stamina and class written all over him. Do you know what his Beyer for the race was? I think it's going to be close between QR,I Want Revenge,and FFire, but QR will pull it out if he has a decent trip and post, but anything can happen, that's for sure.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Kat — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:24:15 GMT

GunBow - the down side of the PM taking the Derby is that there would be no TC this year.

If PM goes to the Belmont, Alex S better have some taxi money in his pocket. . . :)

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Barbara — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:44:55 GMT

Wanted to say hat's off to Quality Road - very impressive horse. Every reason to say he is Derby fav. Dunkirk is the real deal, too, that was quite the move around the turn. He even galloped out in front of QR into the clubhouse turn but seemed like the race took a lot out of the gray horse. I think he deserves to go to the Derby v. some of the others that will get in, BUT I kinda hope he doesn't make it for his own sake. Run him in the Preakness.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Mike Relva — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:19:45 GMT

TO:TIZNOWBABY

I'm gonna say what you told Dray earlier,"thanks for the laugh"! lol

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Kat — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 16:39:29 GMT

I DO hope they don't try to get another race into Dunkirk to get him into the Derby. He was clearly exhausted yesterday, still severely winded while they were hosing him off. He looked like a flat tire trotting down the track. Hats off for a courageous effort, but consider the horse first. I suspect he will see the winner's circle again.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

LDP — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 16:29:11 GMT

Karen2

Completely agree with you on your opinion of the DQ in the Swale. I know that BD bumped Phil twice, but once BD kicked in Phil never was gaining and wasn't going to get past. I know you have to be fair, but in this case Phil wasn't ever going to get past BD.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Saratoga AJ — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 15:23:18 GMT

Jimmy Jerkens has an absolute monster on his hands. The sheer size of this colt...about as big as Forego was for those of you who remember...is impressive. And with connections like Jimmy J. and Johnny V. what's not to like. I picked him after the FOY, and like him even more now.

A short note on The Pamplemousse. While he's nicely bred on the sire side, his dam's side is very weak...the weakest among the major Derby candidates. No route stamina. He will NOT get 10 furlongs. Add that to the fact he only has run the fake stuff, don't waste your money if he makes it to Churchill.

And lastly, doesn't the Kentucky Oaks look like it's shaping up to be one of the best ever?

Rachel Alexandra, Stardom Bound and Justwhistledixie. If they all make the starting gate what a race it will be. The feeling here is Rachel is a possible superstar..her running style reminds me, dare I say, Ruffian. Go to the front and just pour it on no matter what the distance. Scary.

$50 straight Oaks/Derby double:

Rachel Alexandra/Quality Road

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Coldfacts — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 12:13:03 GMT

GUNBOW, some views on some points in your post:

“Quality Road will have to run another eighth of a mile against much better speed horses running even faster splits, and will have to race over a Churchill surface that is usually

much less kind on speed horses than Gulfstream”

Who are the better horses that QR will meet? Is there a 3YO that can set a pace that QR cannot rate close to? The fastest 6 furlong for the derby is Songandaprayer’s 1:09.25.The average time for six furlongs for the last ten derbies is 1:10.94. If there are going to be faster splits, then Secretariat’s record is history. How many on Steve’s top twelve list have recorded 1:10 plus in their rout races? The Mousse is probably the only one but can he run as fast on dirt? The speed of War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown were not affected by the Churchill surface. Good horses take their races wherever they go.

“Dunkirk ran HUGE today in the Florida Derby. As I said before the race, Dunkirk was going to be at a serious disadvantage vis-a-vis Quality Road in the Florida Derby”

Good horses overcome their disadvantages. If Dunkirk had won there would be no arguments about his disadvantage. He rocketed to every top ten list after his Allowance win. Were his disadvantages taken into consideration with the hype that surrounded him?

“the track was ridiculously fast”

I have read this statement elsewhere and I do not think the posters know their facts. Below are the fractions for the last three FL derbies:

Scat Daddy 23.06, 46.78, 1:10.82, 1:35.92, 1:49.02

Big Brown 22.76, 45.83, 1:10.08, 1:35.18, 1:48.16

Quality Road 23.49, 46.83, 1:10.66, 1:35.28, 1:47.72

QA’s fractions for the first 4 quarter were slower than those recorded in 2008. His fractions for the first two quarters were slower than those recorded in 2007. Big Brown was not challenged so he coasted home. If horse had challenged Big Brown, it is conceivable he would have gone below 1:48. Are you implying that Big Brow won the 2008 FL Derby on track that was ridiculously fast? The splits for the FL Derby for the last three years reflect marginal differences. This track is always fast on derby day. The Olympic track in China was fast but yielded only five records. Three WR were recorded by the amazing Usain Bolt. Exceptional athletes are likely to record world records on fast. It is not inconceivable that Quality Road is a better athlete than Big Brow. We already know he is better than Dunkirk irrespective of the excuses being brandished.

“Given this was only Dunkirk's 3rd career start, and that he was forced to make a premature rally on a speed favoring course”

I am not sure the point above carries any value. Big Brown made his third start in the FL Derby and had no problem winning. Quality Road made his third start in the Fountain Of Youth and had no problems winning. QA had only a one race advantage. What exactly is a premature move? Dunkirk rider took correct decision to move at the time he did. If he had allowed QR to straighten and change leads he would have been beaten five or more lengths. Without that move, he would making the turn for home when QR had already change leads and would be well on his way home.

“Hopefully, Dunkirk can get into the Derby because he would be a major factor”

I am hopeful he can get into his feed pan after his exposure to the monster Quality Road. Sometimes races can have adverse effects on horses, lets hope he was not damage too badly and will be able to recover.

Quality Road’s dam sire Strawberry Road was a HOY in Australia and champion older horse in Germany. His second dam was sired by Alydar, sire of two derby winner. His third dam was sire by Bold Bidder, sire of two derby winners. Do not expect distance to be his problem.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

GunBow — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 05:41:50 GMT

Kat:

I agree about The Pamplemousse. Well Armed folded in the stretch of the 9 furlong San Antonio after setting an uncontested lead, but wins the $6 million Dubai World Cup by 14 on the front end. Horses simply dont win stakes races at Santa Anita on the lead. Except, of course, The Pamplemousse. If he likes dirt, his speed will turn from a disadvantage on Pro-Ride to a huge advantage. That last eighth, as you said, is also a concern for The Pamplemousse.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Ranagulzion — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 05:30:37 GMT

Wow! Quality Road and Big Drama in track record times in their respective races ...(never mind the objections and DQ ...just added drama) the Derby plot just thickened.

Quality Road is "el numero uno" right now. Any handicapper trying to diminish the brilliance of his comprehensive crushing of the Florida Derby field is being less than honest.

Also I'm pretty sure that Harold Queen and David Fawkes (connections of Big Drama) are going to be roasting with Derby fever in the coming days. I hope that they never get healed until the first Saturday in May. It appears that inspite of his bone bruise injury, missed training time and apparent withdrawal from the Derby trail, destiny beckons this grandson of Buckaroo (Spend A Buck's sire). His class, versatility, rateability, gameness and propensity to win his races, not to mention his Derby pedigree, make him one of six legitimate challengers to Quality Road in the Derby. More anon.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

Alan — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 01:50:37 GMT

Kentucky Derby Exacta/Trifecta-Box: I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Old Fashioned, Imperial Council.

re: Ky. Derby Trail: Rabbit Punch

draynay — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 01:34:24 GMT

There is no point in talking about Dunkirk for the Derby. He was a tired beaten horse. Quality Road showed immense talent going two turns for the first time and now get to rest and train and improve for the Kentucky Derby. This one is not hard to figure out. If Quality Road comes out of the race well and trains well how can you pick any other horse than the one the just posted back to back Beyers over 110 and won the Florida Derby ???