Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Your Only Friend — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 16:37:58 GMT

Cannot wait for some of the Big Money Races.....then we will be able to sort out the real players....right now everyone is guessing....hope is all everyone has at this time until the points show up on the board.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 17:40:07 GMT

Paula - I believe it has been established for humans that most athletes have some small amount of bleeding in their lungs after a strenuous contest. It may be a natural reaction to physical stress and does not need to be treated because the body takes care of it.

The problem with the "preventative" use of any drug is that drugs have side effects. Lasix is a diuretic; loss of fluids post-race can debilitate a horse, leaving him unable to recover normally from an effort. You can check the insert for other effects.

Actually, I think more interest should be taken in the routine use of Bute. It is an NSAID (aspirin, ibuprofen, etc.), and we all know what kinds side-effects these drugs can have - stomach upsets, liver damage (I get blood tests every year to see if my arthritis med is affecting my liver), etc. It may even be possible that using Bute as a preventative (rather than when clinically recommended) CAUSES some bleeding in the lungs. Lasix may be treating a side-effect of Bute! I do know that the demand to use race-day Lasix arose about a decade after race-day Bute was allowed. And even then, it was only permitted for horses who actually had bled in a race, not every horse in the barn. Raceday Bute is more likely to send a break-down-waiting-to-happen into a race than Lasix.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 17:46:18 GMT

PBP does the service have ratings on Flashback and Verrazano going into their next race?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 16:30:49 GMT

HHE modest upgrade from the RBL is not enough to offset the strong downgrade from the BCJ and supporting modest downgrade from the CC. He's neutral for me now - aka, 'just another horse'.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

JayJay — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 06:22:49 GMT

PBP : So HHE is an upgrade next time out ?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Paula Higgins — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 03:37:05 GMT

sceptre, I totally agree with you about Salix/Lasix. Horses can have bleeding that can't be seen without a scope. Horses are bleeding in countries that don't use Salix. You just may not see it without scoping the horse. I guess their phiosophy is if they can't see it, it isn't happening. So why wouldn't you want to give the horse something that prevents a problem that is relatively common in race horses and everyone knows it? That's why people like John Shirreffs advocate using it. It's not a steroid that masks a problem. It's a drug that prevents a problem. Huge difference. The sport has lost it's perspective and sense of balance because of all the negative publicity.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Mookie's Hero — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 00:39:41 GMT

Maybe they should make the Kentucky Derby an invitational race ( and maybe even let the fans vote for their choices with the officials having the final say) Some horse kept Ruler on Ice from the Kentucky Derby and then Ruler on Ice won the Belmont. So is this race about speed or about distance? Also, most people say some speed horse changed the race that Giacomo won. And then these speed horses don't turn up in the Preakness-Why??

Mookie's Hero

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 21:53:32 GMT

JayJay,

You know, I'd forgotten the whole Lasix thing, so that's a good point. But it was also slow.

PBP's point is good: try realize what kind of a race it was before the runners run their next out. I should never have made a bet on He's Had Enough (even the small one I made) after Shangai Bobby failed to win.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 21:26:39 GMT

You asked.

We analyze past races to look for horses that have performed better than they look to everyone else, or those that have been glorified by advantageous scenarios in prior races. In general, the former leads to overlays and the latter leads to underlays.

Those with the opinion that a Speed Bias on BC Saturday (non-existent) carried SB to the win had an over-inflated opinion of HHE. Our stance on HHE has never been more clear going into and coming out of the Cash Call. I have the same opinion of Fortify, Capo, and any others that were in the BCJ that failed to take advantage of a race Flow that was nearly as favorable to a closer as there can be. The fact that these were 2 yr olds at the time makes the opinion more risky, since there is much room for development. That said, all must show a race to change that opinion before I will change.

This is typical of what we do at the Flow. We isolate races that have fallen outside the norm, thus those events were advantageous to one running style and disadvantageous to another. It is our opinion that being swayed by standard handicapping factors as class, distance, surface, post, and potential pace scenario serve only to eliminate the big mutual pay-outs for which we are known.

The point is, only now do I read comments that perhaps the BCJ field wasn't that good. No kidding. There was one very good 2 yr old in the race. That is Shanghai Bobby, who, as posted the Thursday after the BC, recorded a rare 'vs Zip Win'. This opinion has nothing to do with whether or not he is a potential Derby winner.

I'll confirm as soon as figs are competed later this afternoon, but I believe that HHE may have run his first good race from our perspective. Chasing the wire to wire winner of a Speed favoring race from a length or more back at the first call is never easy.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

JayJay — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 17:34:38 GMT

Rusty : I think everyone knew the race was not going to be a good gauge for the horses because of the no-lasix rule. I don't think anyone took that race as a measuring point for the TC trail. It did give us a good show with the head to head battle between Bobby and HHE.

Baffert's other horse Belvin will be running in the San Vicente (7F) and I'm really anxious to see this horse run, not sure how he'll do in his first race as a 3 yr old but it being a stakes race, makes me believe that Baffert thinks highly of this horse. Either that or he's behind on him and needs to find a race for him so he can be ready for the SA derby. In any case, I'm thinking he'll be Baffert's top derby horse when all's said and done.

PBP : Can you elaborate more on "understanding the potential productivity of the races before horses return" ? I may have missed it but how do you analyze a future race without knowing the track surface, the field, the post position ? I'm only asking since you said this is the "key" to quality handicapping, just wondering if this really is the "key." If so, I'll try and understand it so I can make loads of money and retire.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 16:05:09 GMT

"The key to quality handicapping is understanding the potential productivity of races before horses return - not after."

Aye.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:10:51 GMT

Rusty -

As I stated two months ago, the only horse worthy of serious consideration from the race was the pace presence and winner SB. The reason the time was slow was the absurdly fast early pace. The key to quality handicapping is understanding the potential productivity of races before horses return - not after.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:08:14 GMT

Mike Relva-

It was an impressive race by Revolutionary. I did not state otherwise. My point was poor starts and the lack of a clue will not get it done in a 20 horse field.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 01:20:45 GMT

Too early for to book Verrazano for the Derby but Beyer 105 Brisnet 104.Does anyone know Rags and Thorograph figures.I would like to see him in the Florida Derby on the same track as the figure and against the high figure of Itsmyluckyday and S.Bobby but the timing wouldnt be right as his next prep will probably not come until early March.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 22:58:24 GMT

Steve Haskin what speed figure did Verrazano get for his cakewalk NX1 Saturday at Gulfstream.I think last year you had access to more than one provider.If you have Thorograph, Rags, Beyers, Brisnet or any others can you post?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 19:00:28 GMT

The BC Juvenile had a slow time and it is looking like it wasn't a strong race.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Mike Relva — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 17:07:52 GMT

Phil

Revolutionary showed me alot. Maybe you weren't watching the same race.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 16:43:41 GMT

Im sticking to what I said about Long River after the Jerome that McLaughlin would go conservative with him and try to get him ready for the 3yo distance races at Saratoga.He added performance enhancer salix and it didnt work,he might not be a stakes horse at all.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Karen in Texas — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 16:21:44 GMT

TLLuvsTizs,

I did not notice that TTT would have won the Lewis, but I certainly noticed the hand ride and his general demeanor. He lowered his head, flattened his body and drew off with no wasted motion. Baffert was interviewed later on HRTV and said (something like), "Yeah, Gary's face was fixed in a smile after that race." I realize that all races set up differently, but I couldn't help but remember that when Tiznow ran on the front, he would never let another horse get past him.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 16:16:05 GMT

TJLuvs -

For a little perspective, since SA went back to dirt, there have been ~150 races each at the 8f and 8.5f distances. On average, 8f races are ~1.5 lengths faster in the 1st Q than at 8.5f while the half miles are ~2 lengths faster.

TTT enjoyed as easy a trip as Flashback did. Both wins should be viewed with a grain....

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 16:11:58 GMT

I think my point on modern black type has been made by at lest one prep this weekend. Four- or five-horse races or even more, dominated by a front-runner backing up the pace, then sprinting clear. Nice work-out, but nothing that tells you how good a horse will be in a real race. Trainers don't want to test their good young horses for quality, they just want to get enough points for the Big Dance. The doubling of available stakes races from 'the olden days' makes that possible.

P.S. Watch out for Old Tune, who made her US debut a winning one at Tampa yesterday. Back in the 2011-12 season, her 3yo year, she won the Rio Triple Crown for fillies - the Guineas, the Oaks, and the Vermeille equivalent, 8f to 12f. She is now in the second half of her 4yo season (considered 5 here) and ready to meet Northern Hemispherians on a equal footing.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

sceptre — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 06:41:01 GMT

Hi Davids,

As the topic of this blog doesn't at all relate to the EIPH/lasix issue, I think Steve would prefer that we not get into this. Let me just simply say that I can't truly agree to disagree. For me, the present data is overwhelming in support of lasix. The rest of the world? Consider that we also didn't treat with lasix until relatively recently. Yes, there was racing, pre-lasix, they ran around the track and most survived. But this proves nothing. Some then tried other "remedies", others, perhaps, nothing. They "bled" then, as they do now (but far less now because of lasix), but then "bleeding" was defined only as frank epistaxis-there wasn't endoscopy...The most credited study was performed on South African racehorses. S. African racehorses run without lasix-it isn't permitted. Yet it was found that these horses "bleed" ,just as ours in the U.S., and that lasix helped curtail their "bleeding". Just an example of your "rest of the world", if you catch my drift.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

TJLuvsTizs — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 05:09:37 GMT

Anyone else notice that Tiz The Truth would have won the Robert B Lewis? He ran it .3 seconds faster under a full hand ride, while closing his final 1/8 in under 11.8!!! Take Flashback all you want, but I'll take Tiz The Truth to the bank!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

JayJay — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 02:52:06 GMT

PBP : All I'm saying is post something right before the race, you can't go back to the BC, that was back in November... last year. You didn't say anything about this horse this year when this prep was being discussed...then after the race, you post that you "knew" all along. You did exactly the same with Mountain Eagle, you stay quiet before the race then after, it's like "I knew it ! I told you all so! " lol. Come on now...you and your site's credibility depends on how you post here :)

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of Interest

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 02:41:05 GMT

correction: Little Jerry of course. We like Mike.