Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Karen2 — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:58:33 GMT

Bill... Even more confused : )

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Bill — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:12:43 GMT

I see where Andy Beyer substantially raised the number he gave QR the other day after reviewing all of the mile and an eighth races run that weekend. If Beyer gets confused re speed figures where does that leave the rest of us???

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Matthew W — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:43:40 GMT

Karen2--I think The Pamplemousse will dirt just fine! He'll be on lead--no kickback for The Pamp! As far as this Sat, I think he's up against it on the Pro Ride---that's a strong group of closers on a closer-friendly track! Better on to Kentucky and take them for a ride! Greg J--I'm practically certain Sham won SA Derby by SIX over Linda's Chief...Sham may not have been "great"...but neither were Unbridled and Monarchos but they, too, ran lights out in The Derby---That is what Sham did--He ran lights out in The Derby--I thought he was a sure winner then Secretariat became legend....

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

GunBow — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 06:49:21 GMT

Andy Beyer has upgraded Quality Road's Beyer for the Florida Derby from 103 to 111.

That seems closer to reality than the 103. I wrote immediately after the Florida Derby that the Beyer should be in the 107-113 range. When the 103 figure came out, I tried to make sense of it, and found that the Beyer team must have used Stately Character as a reference point to get the 103. I did state, however, that I thought 103 seemed too low and that a 107, at the lowest, fit better.

For those who portray quantitative measures like Beyer speed fiures to be completely objective and accurate, keep this case in mind. It is an inexact science.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Speedball — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:11:44 GMT

Official Speed Notice to The Pioneer and The Mousse-Mr Hot Stuff is about to break loose at Santa Anita-BEWARE!!

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

GunBow — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:12:02 GMT

helsbelles:

Thank you for the correction. It was Cushion Track. I hope it doesnt take away from the point I was trying to make. Cushion or Pro-Ride, the times were insane and clearly demonstrate how track conditions can affect records. Interestingly, the times for the Cushion Track period are still the track records, even though there was the switch to Pro-Ride.

Sham = Tale of Ekati?

Tale of Ekati is a nice horse and has four solid stakes wins (Wood, Cigar Mile, Jerome, Futurity). However, he has also run some terrible races, and has finished out of the money in half his starts. In any event, Sham was a much faster horse. I'm not one to put Sham in the Hall of Fame for 4 or 5 performances, but he was a couple of levels above Tale of Ekati. For those 4 or 5 races, Sham was as good as 99.5%+ of the horses that have ever run. I do feel, though, that Sham was not a "great" horse. He gets alot of attention for the 2nds in the Derby and Preakness behind Secretariat, but he really doesnt have a "Hall of Fame" resume.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Dreamer's Mom — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:00:33 GMT

Karen2-good horses can run on anything. No worries....

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

For Big Red — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:19:29 GMT

Re the SADerby, the key to the race is Z Day. He's capable of running :21+ first quarters, :44+ halfs, and 1:09+ 6f. No other horse in the race has demonstrated that kind of speed. However, Z Day has only run on dirt, so the big question is...can he run that fast on synth?

If he can, then I like Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy, in that order.

If Z Day doesn't run that fast on synth, then The Pamplemousse most likely runs away with the race.

So, no straight win bets for me. Playing around with exacta boxes on my three contenders, and also my longshots, who are Take the Points and Gallant Son.

No opinion on the other KD preps next weekend.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Alan — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:10:11 GMT

Smarty Jones: My trackside call of the 2004 Belmont Stakes spliced together with the actual race footage. The crowd noise is captured. What a heartbreaker!

www.youtube.com/watch

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

For Big Red — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:08:58 GMT

TO TRAVIS L: Thanks and much appreciated. Will do. :)

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Tiznowbaby — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:26:53 GMT

Karen2, I look at it this way. Either the Mousse will take to the dirt or he won't. If you prep on dirt and he doesn't like it, then he's missed a G1 race (SA Derby with a fat check) on a surface you know he likes. I think as a front runner he has an advantage over other synthetics moving to dirt. I'm more worried about him getting the distance than disliking dirt.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Greg J. — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:19:05 GMT

Dray,

If you make a comment that is completely out of line about "Sham", You can't just say "Drop it , He only won one race". If you educate yourself on this Horse instead of looking at just wins/losses, You would have never said what you said. A little Education for you:

"Sham":

On March 31, 1973, at Santa Anita Derby (GI), California's main Kentucky Derby prep race, Sham scored a 2 ½ length surprise victory over 1-2 favorite Linda's Chief, under jockey Laffit Pincay Jr. Sham electrified a crowd of 49,564 by equaling the Santa Anita Derby record for the 1 1/8 miles of 1:47, which was set in 1965 by Lucky Debonair. Sham provided Pincay with his third win in the Santa Anita Derby.

Sham ripped two teeth out on the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby. Although bleeding from the start of the race, he poured his entire heart into the effort. Secretariat won by 2 ½ lengths over Sham, running 1:59 2/5 for the 1 1/4 miles, the first horse to break 2 minutes in the Derby. (The previous record was 2:00, set by Northern Dancer in 1964.) By running 2 1/2 lengths behind Secretariat, Sham ran the distance in either 1:59 4/5 or 2:00. As races were not timed to 1/100th of a second, and nonwinning times were not taken, no exact time is available.

It wouldn't be until 2001 that another horse won the Derby with a time under 2 minutes. Monarchos won it in 2001 in an electronically timed 1:59.97, which is by convention converted to 1:59 4/5. No other horse, through and including the 2008 running of the Kentucky Derby has ever been below 2 minutes. Sham's Derby time was thus no worse than the fourth fastest time in history (behind Secretariat, Monarchos, and Northern Dancer) and may have been the second fastest time in history.

With a Maryland racing record audience of 61,653 looking on, the mighty chestnut Secretariat struck down rival Sham for the second time in two weeks. With a field of just six, Sham finished second to Secretariat by 2 ½ lengths again.

Odd fact: Sham was given only bottled water before the Preakness Stakes.

Under orders, Pincay was to keep Sham with Secretariat from the start. This worked fine through the first turn and into the backstretch. The gates crashed open, and they surged onto the track as one. Secretariat and Sham soon went to the front. Neck and neck, they began to pull away from the field. They were racing as though this was a sprint race, ticking off quarter-mile fractions in incredible times that were record-breaking in themselves. Neck and neck halfway through the race, Secretariat pulled ahead as Sham equally fell back. Sham ultimately finished last and Secretariat pulled ahead to a win of what was later recorded by 31 lengths.

While Sham did not race again after the Belmont Stakes he was not retired, contrary to the perception of a Belmont breakdown, until July 1973 while preparing to meet Secretariat again at Saratoga. It was in mid July that a hairline fracture of his leg was detected and he was retired.

Some of his progeny included stakes winners Arewehavingfunyet (f), Jaazeiro, and Safe Play. He died of a heart attack on April 3, 1993 at age 23 and is buried on the Walmac farm.

Record 13 starts: 5-5-1

Earnings $204,808

Dray, I know this is in the past, but this was a great horse, I believe he helped Secretariat be the horse he was by giving him the Challenge he needed in his races...

Just a little education for you...

P.S. You also said "If Freisen Fire wins the La. Derby, I will never Handicap another race", Also another quote from you, "Dunkirk has no shot finishing on the board in the Fla. Derby, If he does, Monkeys will fly out of my ***"

So the comment should have not surprised me....That's all

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Karen2 — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:13:26 GMT

Thanks Matthew W.... nice to know someone else has seen something special with the Pamp! Even if he doesn't win, I just truly enjoy him. I am wondering why they haven't prepped him for the derby on dirt. That will leave a big question mark on him coming in to the derby. What if he doesn't take to the dirt??? Wouldn't that be a question you would want answered before you run in the derby? I'm not a trainer and no expert by any means so maybe there is some science or reasoning behind this but it doesn't seem to make sense. I must have missed that he wasn't training well. I thought he turned in a bullet work.

Dray... I have to go with the majority on this one. How can you possibly call Sham a nobody??? I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and think that you really didn't mean it that way. Right?

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Ben B — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:07:23 GMT

The Derby depends on who's peaking and who is coming up to their best race. I've already seem 3 derby favorites wins and looks like that may have been their best race ever. If that is the case, then they will be going dn hill @ derby time. We'll know for sure this weekend.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Karen in Texas — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:45:38 GMT

Perfect Song's last race looks good--maybe ran "green"? Will be watching him this weekend.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Draynay — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:42:09 GMT

You guys have to be kidding... stop it... Sham won one big race that is it. Stop looking back and making something out of nothing. He never made it past Belmont and won just one big race. 19 starts 5 wins and he is a legend ? What about Tale of Ekati... look what he has done in his career and COMPARE.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Travis L — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:08:59 GMT

BIG RED

Just go back to the home page of Bloodhorse scroll down to upcoming stake races, click on the Illinios Derby, from there listed our the horses in Post position, click on Perfect Song, it will go into the horses profile, from there click on racing history, it will show his 3 races, and then from there just click on any three of the races and it will play them, what awesome features we have now to handicap. I got lucky sitting at home and saw his first race, otherwise I wouldn't know who he is.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Matthew W — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 17:17:53 GMT

Dreamer's Mom I agree with you--every year you always hear about that Derby horse who "isn't training well"...and they run lights out! SMART horses get bored--Tiznow was another guy who loved to race/did not love to train...Alex said "well see on Sat" the other day--he wouldn't change places with anybody right now.....

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

For Big Red — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 17:04:03 GMT

TO TRAVIS L: Well, Perfect Song certainly is bred to get 1 1/4 miles. Not a lot of speed in his pedigree, though.

Speaking strictly from a pedigree perspective, it would be fun to see a Ribot-line horse win the Derby. Perfect Song's sire, Pleasantly Perfect, has only had two crops to race so far. If Perfect Song wins the Illinois Derby, he'll be the first graded stakes winner for his sire.

I was using Brisnet's free PP's, but that turned out to be a promo, and they aren't available now. So I can't look up Perfect Song's race record. Can you tell us more about him, and why you like him for the Illinois Derby?

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Greg J. — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:56:59 GMT

Dray,

"Sham was a nobody/Sham was an average horse"....I know ignorance is bliss, but please dray, WAY OFF BASE on that one

"Sham":

Sham had 19 starts, Won 5 , 5 Seconds, 1 Place and 1 Show. Won $204,808. His heart was the second largest heart ever recorded for a racehorse at 18 lbs. His rival SECRETARIAT had largest heart ever recorded weighing around 22 lbs. At two he ran four times won one, second twice, and third once. he ran second to Secretariat in the ky derby. ran second fastest kentucky derby time of 1:59.4 , A horse with a great heart...

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Tiznowbaby — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:53:42 GMT

Mike Rullo, I know that you asked Steve and not me, but your question made me ask myself what I would do. If I needed the money, I'd sell at least a piece of him. If I was having a ball and on the ride of my life and didn't need the money, I wouldn't sell any of him unless it was to a friend or family member so that we could enjoy the experience together. Kind of like how all the offers for Smarty were rejected.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

For Big Red — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:47:07 GMT

TO BILL: You are absolutely right that it's difficult to compare horses from different eras. However, the '1/5th = a length' rule of thumb is the way it's been done since practically forever. Also, handicapping is all about comparing differences in horses, tracks, races, times, jockeys, trainers, etc.

You need to understand...I'm not disrespecting Big Brown. For me, it's all about the horses, first, last and always. I wouldn't disrespect the cheapest claimer at "Podunk Downs," because I love the horses. They don't ask to run these races so we can be entertained and occasionally make some money.

In any case, as already noted, you are entitled to your opinion. If you want to think Big Brown's Derby was the best ever, who am I to try to argue you out of it. By any objective measure, you're wrong, but objective measures are not the sum total of what makes us humans believe the things we do. :)

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

nickie — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:40:27 GMT

love the pedigree comments, from all and 4bigred and coldfax in particular...still would put Dunkirks' ped up vs any. From where I stand I se both 'Wanna & 'Moose having ruff Saturday, especially the former...there will be some pace early which 'Council should reverse Gotham order, and I wouldn't toss 'Bernie oughta the mix just yet...barn is capable, and has put him rite back out there after baffling performance. If the 'Moose wins from his spot, I will toast Canani and buy him a drink at Siros if he ever ventures to the Adirondacks in August.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

For Big Red — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:32:15 GMT

TO DRAYNAY: You wrote, "Sham was a nobody..."

I'm embarrassed for you, Dray. I love your passion and willingness to take a firm stand -- firmer than most professional handicappers. But that one is over the top, even for you.

re: Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby

Matthew W — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:19:15 GMT

2009 SA Derby looks strong! Dinard/Best Pal/Sea Cadet was strong.....Free House/Silver Charm was great...Snow Chief/Ferdinand represented....Sham/Linda's Chief/Groshawk/Ancient Title was pretty solid....Baffert's got the guy to beat/Julio's got the freak/Dorf's got the sleeper/Harty's flying under the radar with a real nice colt....maybe 2009 will rank up there with those others....