Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 14:22:55 GMT

Cuba"s CCdR I played the Palace in the 2nd pool,hope to soak the soldiers in the generals glory.by using the tactic of an exacta box.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

cuba"s classic chef de race — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 02:31:25 GMT

And as they say in horse racing to draw a line,Purple Egg won the fastest inaugural in the 25 years this race has been ran and he did beat Falling Sky there who then did beat Majestic Hussar who did beat Palace Malice, if this 3 horses ran well enough at 1 1/16 don't you think the Egg can do better then them with his stamina packed botton line?.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

cuba"s classic chef de race — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 01:58:07 GMT

My friend hasking,if Falling Sky has HTR a few times in his blood and and Sea Hero is his broodmare sire what can you say about Purple Egg who is by the same sire Lion Hart and has Prize Who did beat the great Sunday Silence before winning the 12 furlons B.C.Turf with a beyer speed figure of 110!! running on grass for the fierst time and olso has the unbeaten monster Ribot winner of the Arc twice in a row also at 12 furlongs? well for me the Question for the Egg is about class becouse he has serious stamina in his dam side.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Owlbet — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 08:14:46 GMT

Now with the injury and subsequent retirement of Violence, the Run to the Roses has taken on a decidedly deeper shade of red.

I'm really liking Orb!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 14:38:11 GMT

Coldfacts I now definitely dont think Falling Sky can defeat Violence in any race at Gulfstream.I hope he tries in the Florida Derby.I have luck betting in the Kentucky Derby because I project a colts known ability, into what he can do in his next race or his next two,if Im wrong well so what.I like the Derby betting pool because I can increase my wager, and have a reasonable chance of recouping my investment(or most of it) even if I lose most of my bets, because of a 20 horse field, and being able to reliably toss up to 5 betting interests.This is not a science so nitpicking at my statements will only help reinforce my opinions.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 23:10:35 GMT

There you have it an unexpected result in the Risen Star,even knowing that I wouldnt have gotten Ive Struck a Nerve their were 3 colts at 99-1.I like the points system.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 17:03:14 GMT

"Breeders try to avoid May foaling dates due to the maturity disadvantage these foals face heading into a Derby run in the month of their births. Consequently, there are not a lot of May foals."

It is not the racing ability that counts to breeders; it is the appearance at the weanling and yearling sales. Sales are where breeders make their money and bigger is better at the sales. Buyers have been conditioned to prefer weanlings that look like yearlings and yearlings that look like 2yos by the use of steroids in preparing sales youngsters in the recent past. Even broodmares who will foal 'late' (in May) bring much less than those foaling earlier.

The Sales are driving the breeding industry now, to the detriment of racing and the breed itself.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:19:14 GMT

KYVET good luck to you in the FOY,I would go in person to Gulfstream to wager and collect cash, but I wont know his closing odds or even where he opens until the race is on the board.That will afect my exotic wagers because I dont know how much I should wager because I need to hedge in the win,place,show pools.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:15:42 GMT

PBPhil if I can remember that bit of trivia, I might use it as a reversion to a May foal winning the Belmont.BTW exotic betting can make use of such data because it is not as logical as betting for the win is,although we all know there are headscratchers in all facets of playing horses.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

KY VET — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 22:48:56 GMT

i like violence too.......big whoop

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 20:15:45 GMT

Chief -

A link would have sufficed - thanks.

I'm honestly not particularly interested in the concept, though I appreciate how others might be. That said, the article still appears to lack reliable statistical support as all of the numbers put forth (win % of the BCM and BCD as well as the Belmont)all lack the necessary detail of how many May foals were entered in those races. The addition of that information is not likely to provide statistical relevance, but it would at least be a starting point. The authors use of MTB's Derby to provide betting support is only legit if he were to also include the results of similar exacta boxes made during the previous decade or two. No doubt the net result would be positive, though it's unlikely that the ROI of such a betting strategy would have been the selling point of the article prior to this one result.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Coldfacts — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 20:09:51 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“Coldfacts I don't think Falling Sky can beat Violence Saturday in the FOY.”

No one thought Mine That Bird could have won the Kentucky Derby. He not only won the race he destroyed the field. What's the moral of the story? Races are not decided on paper and past performances are no guarantees for future success.

If I did not think that Falling Sky was a serious racehorse I would not be on record specifying same. There are those that focus on the known and ignore the unknown. Revisit the videos of this colt races and focus on his stride pattern and the ease with which he covers ground. He easily defeated a highly regarded Majestic Hussar who returned to humble the highly thought of Palace Malice.

He went into Tampa Bay and won The Sam Davis from gate to wire. If you know anything about that track it is very difficult to go gate to wire. When he was joined by Dynamic Sky he would not let that one by and showed that he was capable of finding another gear.

His dam was sired by Derby winner Sea Hero a horse that was loaded with stamina on both sided of his pedigree. His second dam was sire by a son of Seattle Slew and his third by Roberto. There is enough stamina hi his dam line to carry his speed. This colt’s most impressive victory came at GP and he will be forwardly placed and dangerous.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 19:06:32 GMT

Ky Vet dont tell anyone but I copied that whole article.Plod Boy Phil requested it.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

KY VET — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 17:48:55 GMT

Cheif's 9:19 post.....avaliable in paperback friday.....orders taken on amazon....

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 17:06:38 GMT

Mr KY Vet I dare you to pick another horse besides Violence to win the FOY and back it up with a REAL wager

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 15:18:45 GMT

Vetky if you wanna lose more money bet against Violence on Saturday.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Love 'em all — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 15:16:30 GMT

Speaking of foaling dates, I'd like to take this opportunity to wish Wise Dan a very happy 6th birthday today. Love that fella!

I'll be rooting for "Pal Mal" and Rosie this weekend ... along with Oxbow.

Hope the weather improves for the Risen Star.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 04:31:11 GMT

Chief-

I did read your subsequent post about the great Afleet Alex being the last. My apologies for coming across a bit aggressive in questioning the data you provided - poorly done, me.

You do understand of course that knowing the number of May foals entered in each of the last 15 Belmonts is an important starting point in validating the meaningfulness, or lack there of, of the stat.

Thanks.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 02:32:21 GMT

Coldfacts correction there is a high figure horse who ran the fig on the same track,in fact he was high odds in the last race(Holy Bull) after running 2nd to Itsmyluckyday but from the chart he had issues in the last.His name

Sr. Quisqueyano,but he wont beat Violence on Saturday but he could beat Falling Sky.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

KY VET — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 02:28:02 GMT

Thank you jesus!....These are the people, who are betting against me! I know jesus.....the really ARE having this discussion......yea, i know.....they really are!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 02:26:44 GMT

Coldfacts I dont think Falling Sky can beat Violence Saturday in the FOY.In fact there are no Itsmyluckyday's(high fig on same track) in the FOY.Violence will be 1st or 2nd unless he stumbles gets boxed or something else out of the norm like a frontrunner that tries to separate from the field.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 02:19:58 GMT

PBP after my last post I remembered what I used on google to search and the author didnt state a percentage of starters in the Belmont the 10% figure I remembered was in the article but not given as the Belmont starters if they allow me to copy here it is:

by The Paulick Report | 05.13.2009 | 12:16pm

Ask Ray

I’ve always been surprised at the habits of many buyers at yearling sales…they sometimes remind me of lemmings marching to the sea, making decisions without logic or rationality. I once asked a leading buyer why he often spent so much money on yearlings by unproven first-year sires, a practice that is common enough to inflate the yearling average for those new sires. His response was simple: “They haven’t failed yet.”

That philosophy makes no sense to me, for it would seem far more pragmatic to look for undervalued proven stallions than to roll the dice on a group of newcomers whose chance of succeeding are somewhere between 5-10%.

Another unexplainable practice of yearling buyers is their disdain of foals born in the month of May. On average, it would make sense that May foals would be smaller than their January-April counterparts, so perhaps buyers at summer or fall yearling sales are simply unable to project how that smaller horse might look as a 2- or 3-year-old.

Some years ago, statistics accompanying an article I wrote for Bloodhorse’s MarketWatch newsletter, showed that May foals were only marginally behind earlier season foals in performance standards (stakes wins, money won), but their average yearling prices were much, much lower. Where I come from, that makes May foals a bargain.

Rob Whiteley, who operates the successful Liberation Farm breeding operation, came to the same conclusion in an article he wrote this week for the Thoroughbred Daily News. From the winning Kentucky Derby exacta of May foals Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile to a review of May foals that have won Breeders’ Cup races, Whiteley makes a compelling argument that buyers should pay far more attention to May foals than they traditionally have. We’d like to thank Sue Finley of TDN for granting reprint rights of Whiteley’s article. – Ray Paulick

By Rob Whiteley

As a populist horseman, it makes me smile when a relatively obscure horse comes out of the hinterlands and beats up on a bunch of fashionably bred horses who are sired by generally over-priced, over-hyped, and over-bred stallions. And it turns my smile into a broad grin to observe that Mine That Bird is a mid-May foal.

To be fair, the valiant runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, is regally bred and fully deserving of his cost of production. His bloodlines and hefty stud fee came through in a brave display of talent and determination, and those who played him unsuccessfully in the exotics only have themselves to blame for not taking home a big piece of the track. Like the item we look past in the front of the refrigerator, it was right there to see. Pioneerof the Nile is also a May foal, and if you had played a May foal exacta, you would have received $2,074.80 for a $2 exacta box.

(Ed. Note: A $2 exacta box with all of the May foals in the Derby would’ve cost $40. Atomic Rain (Smart Strike), Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) and third-place finisher Musket Man (Yonaguska) are all May foals as well. A $1 triple box on the quintet would’ve set you back just $60, and returned $20,750.30)

In light of the continuous racing success achieved by May foals year after year, I am at a loss to rationally understand how that success fails to translate into the sales scene where May foals, as a group, bring approximately 35 percent less than their counterparts. For some in-grained reason, rooted in hearsay and perpetuated by the typical word of mouth momentum that spreads other horse industry falsehoods and myths, May foals get a bad rap at the sales, and are often discounted accordingly in the ring. This is such nonsense. The stigma on May foals that floats around on the winds of ignorance has no basis in fact.

It can even be persuasively argued that May foals actually have a slight advantage over other foals, as May foals are born according to a horse’s innate and natural spring-time predispositions, and with the most favorable environmental conditions.

Savvy buyers who keep up with the details of racing know that May foals, as a group, race as successfully as foals born in other months, and better than foals born in January. And the sharpest horsemen and pinhookers know that a few days or even weeks generally make little difference in a horse’s early development.

The most important factors in a horse’s ability to perform early involve genetically based precocity, balance, athleticism, and mental maturity, not date of birth. Each horse has its own genetically wound clock, and horses have wide-ranging differences in the rate that they develop, no matter which month they might be born in. Like foals born in January or February or any month, some May foals may be forward enough to zip along at two-year-old sales, while others may not be mature enough to race effectively until the middle of their three-year-old years, or later. Horses, like humans and other mammals, follow their own genetic blueprint.

When it is their time to perform, however, May foals truly hold their own, even as two-year-olds.

Except for the month of January, the fewest number of foals are born in May, yet they account for 10 percent of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile colt and filly champions. Furthermore, as May foals mature, their success rate in certain top level venues can be jaw-dropping. May foals have won a stunning 50 percent of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs (including, Azeri, Round Pond, Spain, and Escena). And May foals have won over 25 percent of all Breeders’ Cup Mile races.

Despite the impressive frequency with which May foals find the winner’s circle in big races, however, a May foal may not win the Preakness this year. Instead, a magnificent January foal named Rachel Alexandra may be brilliant enough to outrun the boys, no matter when they were born (if she can adjust to a new groom, a new trainer, and new routines). But the Belmont, please take note, is entirely a different matter because of the extraordinary potency of the May foal factor.

The May foal factor is the strongest available predictor of Belmont success--far stronger than the most sophisticated figs or Beyer numbers--because May foals, incredibly, have won nearly 40 percent of the last 15 runnings of the Belmont (including, Afleet Alex, Lemon Drop Kid, Thunder Gulch, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, and Mine That Bird’s own daddy, Birdstone). Therefore, given the historical dominance by May foals in this mile-and-a-half event, and given the Bird’s paternal family connection and the probable presence of steadfast Pioneerof the Nile, we could even be looking at the same May foal quinella we witnessed in the Derby. In any event, it is time we give May foals the respect they deserve, at the sales and on the track.

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re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 01:56:29 GMT

Plod Boy Phil I got that from a search on google and the writer was from The Paulick Report and it was dated sometime in 2009.If memory serves me he said 10% of the starters were May foals.But after I posted it I checked going backwards from last year and no May foal has won since 2005,when Afleet Alex did it.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Criminal Type — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 00:39:38 GMT

Susan, Your partly right. Mares are put under lights in January to stimulate their cycle so they can be bred in mid February or early March. The resulting foal is then born in late January or early February. This is a procedure used on maiden mares and mares who did not get in foal the previous season for whatever reason, not to make mares who are in foal go into labor to ensure early foaling dates. Typical gestation is 11 months give or take a couple of days and if all goes well the mare will be bred again a few weeks after she gives birth.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Play the Palace

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 00:07:40 GMT

Chief -

In an attempt to inject even a sniff of statistical reliability to the 40% figure you provided, how many May colts have run in those 15 Belmonts ?