Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Ann in Lexington — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:05:26 GMT

Re: Beyer numbers. Aren't they calculated based on historical data? How fast horses at particular levels have run in previous meets at the same distance? Well, the surface at SA was laid down last summer and was used for the Oak Tree meet, and then for this winter meet. That isn't a lot of data, compared to that available at many other tracks, unless they are cheating and using data from previous surfaces. Grain of salt required with use.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

marc W — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 19:32:00 GMT

For all those smarter than me with there facts and figures----

These truths to be true

I know whether the breeding is more inclined to sprinters or distance, muddy or fast, and of times.

A) A superior horse lets say for sake of argument a $50K and a $4K claimer---the 50K with wins at 5F is still going to beat the 4K with win over a mile at a 1 1/4---meaning if the horse is superior he will win at a greater distance no matter his breeding preference.

---Yes, breeding--it has merit--but not so much these days as hardly anyone breeds for true stayers these days-its not sales ring popular--but more important is talent-it always has been.

B) There is no such thing as a distance loving horse---some are just better at it than others. The same is for mudders-some just handle the mud better---watch at any farm -horses get out of the rain and will avoid puddles if they can.

(I ran in 3 marathons finished 2 and ached so bad I wanted to stop in all 3. I would much preferred running 100 yards --trust me horses don't love running over a mile with 126 pounds on their back--its just some can do it well)

C) As to times---very simple

If a 10K race is run in 1:09 and the horse won by 10 lengths--- on the same day a crack stakes sprinter with a $1/2 million besides his name for the year wins in 1:10 wins by a neck-----I can, with almost complete certainty, say that if they raced in the same race ---the class horse--- wins---no matter what the time.

Handicapping isn't all facts and figures.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

For Big Red — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:56:32 GMT

TO MARC W.: Good advice. I'm not only interested in works, but in how the contenders are galloping in the mornings. Wish I could observe Friesan Fire's gallops, or at least get some news about how he's doing. He's almost the forgotten horse at this point, for understandable reasons.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

For Big Red — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:44:53 GMT

TO MIKE RULLO: You wrote, "I don't think the derby distance will help I Want Revenge's chances in the derby." IWR may or may not win the Kentucky Derby. If not, it won't be due to his pedigree.

I Want Revenge by Stephen Got Even x Meguial by Roy. "Stephen" is by Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic winner, and Horse of the Year, A.P. Indy. Most know Indy is by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of Broodmare of the Year Weekend Surprise by Triple Crown Winner Secretariat. Weekend Surprise, of course, also produced Preakness winner Summer Squall, who sired Derby and Preakness winner Charismatic.

What may be less well known is that the dam of "Stephen," Immerse, was bred along classic (stamina) lines, being by Cox's Ridge, a son of Best Turn out of a mare by Blushing Groom. Immerse was inbred 5sx5d to Bull Lea, sire of Triple Crown winner Citation. In addition to Best Turn, other stamina influences in Immerse's pedigree include Man o' War, Princequillo, Wild Risk and Admiral Drake.

Starry Night produced I Want Revenge's dam, Meguial, to the cover of Roy, a son of Fappiano. Roy was a leading stallion in South America, where he sired a boatload of champions and over 100 stakes winners. As for Fappiano, it seems his reputation and influence on our classic races only grows with each new 3-yr-old crop.

Fitzcarraldo is the sire of I Want Revenge's tail-female granddam, Starry Night. Fitzcarraldo, Argentine Triple Crown winner, was a direct tail-male descendent of Alycidon, one of the breed's strong stamina influences. In fact, there are multiple stamina influences in Starry Night's pedigree. She was inbred 5sx4d to Donatello, sire of Alycidon, and an important stamina influence in his own right. Other stamina influences in Starry Night's pedigree include Crepello (by Donatello), Persian Gulf, Sideral, Blenheim II, Mieuxce, Wild Risk and Hyperion.

Handicappers would be wise to base their betting decisions about I Want Revenge on factors other than whether or not he can stay 1 1/4 miles.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Steve Haskin — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:12:03 GMT

Rock, clears up what? I dont know what point you're making? Did I not write nothing but positive things about his race?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

marc W — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 16:59:57 GMT

When people comment on times, performances, quality of races et. so sure they know everything early and before it is "REAL" race time.

Suggestions:

Whether you agree with Mr Haskin or not, realize he has seen many horses work for years and is on track and he has an edge on most of us. I know as the Derby gets closer I want to know how my picks are going in the morning before the race. He is a good source. ANYONE that knows racing knows that a horse can go 58 flat and look impressive or all out---on paper it is 58 either way. Some will understand my comment some will say the horse worked in 58.

Never pick before all preps are in and Post Positions are assigned unless taking a small shot on the futures. Just because BB won out of 20 doesn't mean QR or another can. A horse missing 3 days training can be dead meat heading into the race--wait wait wait!!!!

If you have TVG or HRN on your television you can see the works they offer. I would suggest you steer away from the jock's comments and go with the trainers like Tom Amoss for best results.

Obviously, if you know what you are looking for and have seen many works your own opinion is all that matters in the end---As a former DRF clocker I still am open to others opinions, although I might not agree. When I know everything, I certainly won't be on any blog-I wouldn't share it, it would kill my price, but I don't ever have to worry about that happening.

Thoughts to consider from someone who "does not" know it all.

Side note---The Pamp is the only one I have had to drop from my list because of injury---no changes (other than moving IWR up #3 from #9 after the Gotham) or excuses needed, but still all is subject to change before the 2nd.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

The Rock — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 16:11:08 GMT

Steve,

Below is a comment from Sohby Sonbol, racing manager for Zayat Stables in regards to PIONEER OF THE NILE race on Saturday to Dan Illman of DRF. Hope this clears a few things....

Dan,

Just a comment on Pioneerof The Nile. You can state your opinion about your horses positively or negatively, that's your opinion. But so i will just address facts. You said that POTN was washed out before the race. I am not sure which feed you were watching the race on but the horse was the furthest from being washed out. I was there my self with the horse while saddling, in the paddock and until the minute he left to the track and observed him like a hawk till he got in the gate. The horse was very professional, very calm, and did not turn a hair and he was defiantly not washed out. Maybe the glow from how shiny his coat was gave you that impression. As a matter of fact when Mr. Zayat was walking the colt back in the winners circle he was not blowing nor did he even break a sweat.

Bobc thank you very much for your comments, wishes and hopes. I will try as much as possible to provide you our personal insight.

One of which is also about a comment Dan made regarding Pioneer's pulling hard. The colt covers about twice as much ground with one stride than any other horse does. So if they are walking in front of him going 24 then they slowed down to 24.3 and when his shutting off speed is faster than that he had no choice but to take it to them which made them go the 3rd quarter in 23.3, then he got in the rhythm of his cruising speed to the mile in 24.1 and came home for the final 1/8 in 12.2 which is consistent with his rhythm. HIs comfortable cruising speed is 12 sec for the 1/8 and he can do that all day long. That's basically running a 1 1/4 in 2mins flat. but of course a lot of factors come in to play like the trip he get and the condition of the track not to mention the pace of the race. I wish the Pampelmousse did not scratch because we would have ran a faster pace and he would have probably won it in 1:48

Unfortunately not a lot of people appreciate a horse that over comes different circumstances to win and adapts to any pace scenario to get the job done but by low margins of lengths. So he gets knocked for not winning by the "AirPowered" margins that I Want Revenge or the others win by. But at the end of the day he has won 4 graded stakes in a row so far: 2 G1s and 2G2s, every one that he has beaten has become a graded stakes horse Lime Rickey, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem etc. He will probably end up being the youngest or one of the youngest horses in the field of the derby. With horses like Dunkirks have 4 months of age over him, or even 2 months like quality road. Everyone knows that in this time of their 3 yo year an age difference of 2 to 4 months is huge in their development.

I hope this provided some insight in how we view our colt. I will try to keep you updated as much as possible.

Sobhy

Posted by: sobhy sonbol on April 06, 2009 at 08:46 PM

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

mike rullo — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 15:07:04 GMT

steve,

a.p. indy is the best sire in the last 15 yrs. but stephen got even was not a 1 1/4 horse and he has yet to sire one. I dont think the derby distance will help I want revenge's chances in the derby.

quality road is a throw out for the derby.name me a horse with foot problems before the derby that has gone on to win it??

do you remember unbridled's song, empire maker they could not do it!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

txhorsefan — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:28:45 GMT

Dear Steve - Thank you once again for another informative and educational column which I always look forward to even though I may not respond. I am grateful for your insight as well as your dedication to helping us learn.

Fellow blog commenters, thank you for all your valuable messages as well. I enjoy the commentary and the individual observations many of you have from either first hand knowledge or past experience. It makes very enlightening reading and that is what I'm here for - to learn more about the Thoroughbreds that I love. Thanks!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Draynay — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:07:47 GMT

I hope everyone finds reasons to bet on horses like Friesan Fire, Old Fashioned, IWR, and POTN. I would love to get 5 to 1 on Quality Road and laugh all the way to the window as I hear people say, "Wow...who knew Quality Road was that much better than the field?"

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Sandy — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 13:18:49 GMT

I watched the Wood Memorial and thought that Revenge really didn't beat much in that race... just like his last race in NY. I think there are plenty of others who have been dominating their competition (keener competition) that could have also pulled it off too under those circumstances, e.g. Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Dunkirk and Old Fashioned (and maybe Musket Man). He's a good horse, but I don't think that effort catapults him to the top of the heap. I'm not convinced yet that the So. Cal 3-year-olds are that spectacular. Papa Clem who was right in the mix with Pioneer and Revenge early on got his butt kicked in New Orleans. And I think Old Fashioned will do the same to him at Oaklawn. Have you noticed that most of the horses that have run against Old Fashioned have chosen not to run against him again, except Win Willy (love that silly name). Does Willy have the foundation for 1-1/8 miles? Rachel Alexandra, now there's a star.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

LDP — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 10:05:46 GMT

Picksixny,

I know POTN was the one who took gomez up, but as i said he was keen to go on, not rank. Gomez didn't allow him to become rank by letting him run his own race. POTN was running relitively, to me relaxed, was he pulling, most definitely, but a rank horse is a horse you can tell is upset, and refuses to settle no matter what you do. POTN was not upset, was not up tight, just keen to go into very slow fractions. Also are you Gomez himself? He may choose POTN or not. As of now he is more experienced than Dunkirk, he's getting better and better, and he's actually in the Derby. Right now i'd take POTN.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Steve Haskin — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 06:59:37 GMT

GunBow, the key to reading my observations is, I'm not looking for horses to eliminate, because they can often fool you. I'm looking for horses that stand out, who I think are coming up to the Derby in the best shape, as far as works and looks. If I write glowingly about a horse, it's because he really impressed me. If I wrote so and so worked this morning in l:01 and leave it at that, it means he did nothing to excite me. In my Friday column, in which I summarize everything and give my picks based on my observations, I wrote that Smarty Jones had the best Derby work I'd ever seen. Two that came very close in subsequent years were Barbaro and Street Sense. I also wrote that Monarchos had the best work in 2001, and raved about Fusaichi Pegasus' only work in 2000.

I've never been really surprised by a winner, because they didn't look or work well. Some Derby winners like Funny Cide and Giacomo came in late and I never got a chance to really observe them or watch them work. The closest I can come to answering your question is Thunder Gulch, who did not look good working in company with a filly, because he refused to leave her. He was all over her and looked very ordinary in his work. But that obviously didnt hurt him.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

picksixny — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 05:09:46 GMT

steve,

baffert is known for fast works so he will not change.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

GunBow — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 04:38:11 GMT

predict:

Observation is particularly important for the Derby. I'm sure that is why many will be reading this Blog. Steve is one of the very best, if not The best, observers of Derby contenders at Churchill. While most Derby contenders look good, Steve (and others) are usually able to give folks 3-4 horses that should be tossed based purely on appearances and works.

Steve:

Has there ever been a Derby winner that fooled you with his/her appearance? In other words, since you've been going to Churchill early, has a horse ever looked really off, or worked poorly, or made an overall bad impression and then won the Derby?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

GunBow — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 04:31:21 GMT

I want to make one more comment about my original "Sunday Silence/Easy Goer" post. Notice how in my original post I threw in the words "may" and "since" as in IWR and QR MAY give the Derby it's best 1-2 punch SINCE Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. I think I was fairly circumspect. I never meant to be definitive, and certaintly did not write that they WERE the "next" Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. If any direct or implicit comparisons were being made, it wasn't between IWR/QR and SS/EG, it was with the horses SINCE 89'. By writing "since Sunday Silence and Easy Goer", I was specifically referring to those Derby horses from 1990-2008. It was the Derby contenders AFTER 89' that I wanted people to think about. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer remain the standard for recent (last 20 years) dynamic Derby duos, thus the word "since".

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

GunBow — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:47:09 GMT

Matthew W:

I NEVER said Quality Road and I Want Revenge are the next Easy Goer and Sunday Silence, nor did I compare the careers of Quality Road and I Want Revenge to the careers of those two great horses. I only said that GOING INTO the Derby, we might have to go back to 1989 to find two more impressive colts. Remember, going into the 89' Derby, Sunday Silence had only won 2 stakes as well, the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe. That's it. Easy Goer was, by far, the more proven stakes horse at the time and that is why he was such a huge favorite. I've been the one on here telling people to relax, that there is a long way to go, that one or two of these horses will probably not even make the Derby. And if I ever compare any of these horses to horses from the past, I qualify it by saying that I am looking at these past horses at the SAME STAGE of their development. Look at what I originally wrote before telling me to do anything.

Here's what I wrote:" I truly hope all the horses being discussed with such passion can actually make into the starting gate at Churchill the first Saturday in May. If they do, this does appear to be one of the strongest Derby fields of the last 20 years, right up with the 89', 94', 97', 04', and 07' fields. And in Quality Road and I Want Revenge, this field may have the strongest 1-2 punch since Sunday Silence and Easy Goer."

So, I was complimenting all of the Derby prospects, placing them, as a whole, next to 5 other crops. I don't think that is so unreasonable. Now, I can see how saying that QR and IWR MAY give this year's Derby the best 1-2 punch SINCE Sunday Silence and Easy Goer can be seen by some as a stretch. However, consider this: Since 1991, only 3 horses have gone into the Kentucky Derby having already run 2 Beyer speed figures over 110. These 3 horses are Holy Bull (94'), Silver Charm (97'), and Indian Charlie (98'). Since 1991, there has not been a Derby that has had two horses that have both earned at least 2 Beyers over 110. Well, this year Quality Road has earned 2 Beyers over 110, with consecutive 113 and 111 Beyers. And if you assume that I Want Revenge lost 3-5 lengths in the Wood, then his 103 would certainly have been above 110, giving him 2 Beyers over 110 (Gotham 113). According to the speed figures, Quality Road and I Want Revenge ARE two of the fastest colts to enter the Derby since 1989. And it's more than speed figures. What IWR did in the Wood was just sick, and the fact that Quality Road has been so impressive in winning graded stakes races in only his 3rd and 4th career starts is also sick.

Do they have alot to prove? Absolutely. Do I put them in the Hall of Fame? Absolutely not. These horses have alot more to accomplish before I compare their CAREERS with any horse in the Hall. Of course, I never said they had nothing to prove and that they are destined to be in the Hall. I only have to write this for clarification because Matthew W put words in my mouth.

With this hopefully clarified, I do believe IWR and QR are two horses of rare talent, and compared with other outstanding horses at THE SAME STAGE OF THEIR DEVELOPMENT, they are not too far off. Add a horse that has won 4 consecutive grade 1 or 2 races (Pioneer), another that has won 3 consecutive graded stakes (Friesan Fire), a horse than ran a 108 Beyer in his 3rd start (Dunkirk), and so many others, and we have a really good crop.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

predict — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:04:10 GMT

It is starting to look like a clash between Cali and Flori horses coming up to the Derby. I am surprised by the lack of support that POTN seems to garner, after what he has done, he should be the top one or two pick for most. Who else has beaten so many good horses? I have nick-named him, "Nostrils" . When he sets his head down and starts driving he has the biggest set of "air scoops" I have ever seen. He looks like he opens up those air holes and enjoys pushing through the air like some sort of breathing machine. I think people should look at these animals and judge them more by what they see, than just numbers and PP's. Witness the comments here about Stardom Bound. Observe and win......

Thanks Steve for the great articles, I always enjoy your insights.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

picksixny — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 02:33:35 GMT

ldp,

well i don't know what race you were watching , but potn was dragging gomez up to the lead. while under hard restraint. he will off the board with that race. but you must also realize he is not fast either. especially to qr,iwr,ff, or dunkirk. and do you believe gomez will pick him over dunkirk i highly doubt it.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

helsbelles — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 02:31:59 GMT

Looks like I am forced to defend myself a little here, if Steve will allow it. My comment had NOTHING whatsoever to do with Mr. Haskin. I have told him on several occasions how much I value his work (and his kind heart). Where were all you folks when he was given so much trouble by bloggers early on that he communicated to us that he was having second thoughts about doing the blog? I can tell you I was right there being ticked off with them, telling them that we are about to lose a good thing because of them. Where were you guys? GunBow, I agree with everything you said about Mr. Haskin, we are very fortunate to be able to interact with him. Again, my comment was directed at certain bloggers, not Steve! It's difficult to gauge people over the internet, and I always give people too much benefit of the doubt until they prove me wrong. And moreover, feelings can be very easily hurt on these blogs. Now, can we get back to horseracing? Aren't there more pressing issues than my insignificant comment that was miconstrued?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Steve Haskin — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 02:05:08 GMT

You're too kind, guys. You're making me blush. But I do truly appreciate it. I'm glad we're all able to interact. Once the Triple Crown is over, I'll get back to the historical blogs.

To Picksixny, I agree that if Pioneer runs the same race in the Kentuckly Derby he won't win. But with the pace expected, there is no reason why he should run the same race. That's not his style at all. The dirt is a question, but he has won 4 stakes in a row as you noted, and that says a lot. I have him ranked high because of the other things about him I've observed and like. I think those fast works had him a little too sharp. He looked too on edge before the race and was sweating a bit. If I were Baffert, I'd think long works and not quite as fast.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Matthew W — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 01:17:09 GMT

Pioneerof The Nile has made very disadvantageous moves in his last two--early moves on grass are usually bad moves yet POTN has gotten the job done vs many on the (grass-playing) pro-ride!--VERY likely he hits the Derby board....the guy who said I Want Revenge/Quality Road might be the next Sunday Silence/Easy Goer needs to amp the gloss down just a peg! One two-turn race does not a champ make--I Want Revenge maybe---but Mr "claim a guy for $20/raise to starter alw/15 point Beyer gain/12 days after claim/wins as 3/5 FAVORITE"---is right where he belongs in the light of day!...We'll see where this goes but I've caught this guys act and it's weak.....

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

LDP — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 01:11:09 GMT

picksixny,

Your not suppose to run the same race in your prep as you would in the Derby. This race in my opinion took the edge of POTN and set him up perfectly. Now all he has to do is take to dirt, which i don't think will be a problem seeing as how versitle he's already shown us he is. He can run on turf or sythetics, plus he can come from anywhere in the field. POTN was not rank either, that means fighting the rider, tossing their head, basicly being just about uncontrolable. POTN was eager and keen to go on into slow fractions, which is just fine.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

LDP — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 01:06:03 GMT

Paula,

No problem. I will agree with you after a long day a school, or work i also look forward to reading the posts, it is very fun.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Coast Clash Looms Big

Paula Higgins — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 23:57:06 GMT

LDP, thanks for your response too. I am sorry I missed the first one. I also think Stardom Bound looked thin.

You know, I am a R.N. and I work hard all day long, like many of you. When I come home, I really look forward to reading these articles and blogs. You all love horses and are plenty horse smart as well. I also love the dialogue back and forth; some of it pretty "energetic." Some of it is hilarious. All in all, this site is very entertaining and enligtening.