Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Greg R — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 04:00:31 GMT

Yes, actually, at this time of year I HAD heard of Big Brown (saw his Saratoga debut on grass - he caused quite a buzz), Mine That Bird (he had come down from Canada to run in the States as 2 yr-old, right?....when he showed up again in New Mexico, of all places, I was mystified, and couldn't believe it was the same horse), Funny Cide as an up-and-comer who kept giving it the old college try and Giacomo, who kept chasing the "star" California colts as a 2 yr-old. War Emblem had yet to emerge at that level at this stage. Grindstone only hit my radar after the Ark Derby - in those days, we didn't pay quite as much attention to early-season Oaklawn races, did we?! After Grindstone, Oaklawn steadily grew in prominence vis-a-vis the Derby Trail.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Slew — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 22:12:46 GMT

I should have added earlier...I was watching a History Channel special on Horse racing in America. They paid a lot of attention to Seattle Slew.

In the narration and interviews, the owners and trainers both referred to the Belmont Stakes as the most challenging race in America.

Just saying....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Greg B — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 18:54:00 GMT

What about Al Stall's Sunbean? Although a LA bred, he has been quite impressive, scratching from the Risen Star because of the bad draw, easily won a state bred race on that day in I believe the fastest mile and 70 yard race of the meet. He also won on the same Friday night card that Departing won in I believe a faster time.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Giddyup — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 10:40:48 GMT

I think Steve makes a good point with this blog. Any trainers that remember all the media hype that surrounded Uncle Mo must wonder if maybe there aren't some advantages to keeping a potential Derby runner under wraps and off the public's radar for as long as possible.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

cuba"s classic chef de race — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 21:41:18 GMT

Dr Steve Roman shuld be happy when he see the San Felipe winner Hear The Ghost with a dosage profile of 41500,this will be the first derby winner with 5 points in the classic wing sinse he invented this formula and the irony is that his sire and grand sire won the breeders cup classic but at 4.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Slew — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 15:35:23 GMT

COLDFACTS: The statement that the Belmont is considered the true test of Champions by horsemen was actually almost a direct statement made in the book, "The Most Glorius Crown", written by Marvin Drager. So I certainly am not alone in my thinking.

No matter how many horses are entered, post position is irrelevant because the horses start slow and have plenty of time to get into position during the stamina test of 12f.

Of course a fresh horse can steal it, but the Belmont usually determines a Triple Crown Champion...or pinpoints a horse's flaws.

The Kentucky Derby, on the other hand, is considered one of the most prestigious races in the world, and certainly the premier race in the USA. But, in a 20 horse field, there's an awful lot of luck needed to win it.

The Belmont weeds out the lucky horses from the champion horses.

I'm confident in Verrazano. He did rate in the race, shows a preference to be outside the speed, took on every challenger with ease, and simply cruised. I don't think he worked hard at all for his win. I was very impressed by Java's War, who closed with lightning speed, and didn't seem to tire after his spectacular run.

In the San Felipe, dumb! Flashback and Goldencents engaged in a duel when they were only 2 furlongs into the race. They should have saved it for the homestretch. It was the early duel that wore them both down.

I was very impressed by Tiz A Minister, who came rushing up from 12 lengths behind the field; he shows promise. And he's handsome. I was most impressed by the stride on Hear The Ghost. He stayed midpack, and made his move in the homestretch, easily bypassing the tiring duelists. His stride was long and always reaching for more ground, and he had the jump on Tiz A Minister whose stride had begun to shorten slightly in the final furlong.

And Hear The Ghost is a Ghostzapper-tough to beat. Dr. D. called it, and I'm glad he got my attention.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 15:17:42 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

I listed 21 stallions from the MR. Prospector sire line that have sired classic winner in the US. As previously stated I regard Mr. Prospector and his sire line mutually exclusive.

Mr. Prospector's achievements are his and those of his descendants I consider to be from his sires line.

You will note I did not include Miswaki, Machiavellian, Rhythm etc. They are all sons of Mr. Prospector that have sired winners of major races in Europe and Australia. In the case of Rhythm he is probably best remembered for being the winner of the first Breeder Cup Juvenile. Few will probably know that he sired the 2001 Melbourne Cup winner Ethereal.

The thing applies to Storm Cat. I regard Storm Cat and his sire line mutually exclusive.

Storm Cat's achievements are his and those of his descendants I consider to be from his sires line.

I am aware of Giant’s Causeway, Forestry etc., exploits outside the shores of the US. Discreet Cat won the UAE Derby but that is not relevant to the point I was making.

Only one stallion from the Storm Cat sire line has sired the winner of Triple Crown race. Whereas 21 from the Mr. Prospector sire line have.

Despite the significant age difference between the Storm Cat and Mr. Prospector, he has more sons as stallions.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 13:11:31 GMT

“I think Mine That Bird, has messed people’s heads up.....handicappers, owners, now think you don’t have to be ( good) anymore to run in the derby”

The above extract from a particular post was slightly edited due to capital letter being added where appropriate in the referenced gelding’s name and brackets added to the word ‘good’.

I remain the most English challenged on this board, but despite my deficiencies, the above statement clearly infers that the subject gelding was being as used as a measurement.

If Mine That Bird’s victory in the Derby has led to the misconception that a horse does not have to be good to win the great race, then it is being inferred that the subject gelding not worthy winner of the great race.

There is no such status as being good up to the Derby and Preakness. The gelding was third in the Belmont. If his goodness stopped at the Preakness, how would his 3rd place finish in the Belmont be explained?

THIS A CLASSIC CASE OF EXCEPTION NONSESSE!

He was one of two horses in the Belmont that contested the Derby and Preakness. The other finished off the board. Is there a point where a Champion 2YO’s goodness stops?

MTB was very small gelding that took on the ultimate challenge for 3YOs and paid the price. His willing heart was far bigger than his tiny body. It is an inequity from which his tiny body did not recover.

Instead of damage control follow up posts, the contributor that has sought undermined his achievement and has inferred that he was not good enough to be a Derby winner, should do the right thing and post an apology to the geldings many fans.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 12:34:19 GMT

Slew,

You are probably alone is your assessment that the Belmont is a harder race to win than the Belmont.

Connections do not pray for favorable post positions and good trips in the Belmont. Connections do not ship all over the country trying to secure graded earnings, now points to secure a place in the Belmont.

The like of Da'Tara, Ruler On Ice, Commendable etc., would be chasing the ambulance in the Derby.

Most years Belmont’s fields are small and void of quality. A second stringer that avoided the Derby and Preakness can easily get loose on the lead and steal the race. Likewise an also ran from the Derby that avoided the Preakness can defeat a Derby/Preakness participant due to extract recovery time.

You have reminded me regularly that horses are herd animals. When 20 are assembled for race it transition from a race to a stampede. When five are assembled it’s a grazing session or a slow canter.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

El Kabong — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 12:22:19 GMT

Steve,

The KJC's form just got a nice boost from the second wave of Java's War. This guy is a classic. He was slow out of the gate in the KJC and was very wide down the the backstretch and coming home. He needs a derby rider. Martinez, chilly Willy, did a good job yesterday, but had one hesitation in the far turn and it cost him a little momentum. That said, the breeding on this guy is really suited to go the classic distances. After yesterday, I like Uncaptured's chances better but Java has the royal breeding to relish 10F's. Maybe Calvin would like another victory from out of the clouds. Another cup of Joe for you Steve? I can't wait to see this guy run farther.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 12:07:09 GMT

Age of Reason,

Regarding Mr. Palmer,I did not see your post until today.

At 9/5 I missed big pay day as he should have been 1/2.

This colt is a 10F horse but is he fast enough?

If his connections have Derby ambitions I think they might consider the to the Wood.

Although late, Thanks for the alert.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

cuba"s classic chef de race — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 01:39:21 GMT

Verrazano did well the pace was so so the place horse was 32 to 1 what happen to flasback when the pace was fast? so to turn the fantasy in reality is very inportant to know your game,unrace at 2 Stroke Creek by hello sire of 2 derby winners before him finished 2d to Go For Gin in the 1994 derby and he was facing Brocco The chanpion 2 year old,Bluming Affair by dynaformer Who finished 3d at this derby and Tabasco Cat who went to win the preaknees and the derby over derby winner Go For Gin do you want to talk about class? and last year a son of belmont winner Enpire Maker who had the hart to finish 2d in the derby despite having ran 3 consecutive races at 9 furlongs who have done that this century? so like i say open the gate and you will realize that one thing is with spoon and other with fork, i hope you understand my humble coment.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 22:51:14 GMT

Oh my gosh...Gulfstream..Fort Larned, winner of the BC Clasic, 2 steps out of the gate went to his knees and almost on his side, lost rider Hernandez, ran riderless up the rail, passing the field by 12 lengths. Discreet Dancer gets the win in the Gulfstream Park Handicap.

Hernandez ok...no word on Ft Larned who was 1/2 mile in front of the field.

And Verrazano cruised to victory in the TB Derby.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

KY VET — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 22:12:15 GMT

Mine that bird was good......at the derby, and preakness.......he improved over 8 lengths.......the odds might be a clue .....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

KY VET — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 22:07:37 GMT

Who said mine that bird was no good?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 21:53:57 GMT

Coldfacts: While I agree that Mine That Bird earned his win, and was not a fluke....the statement

"The Derby is by far the most difficult race to win"

is incorrect. The most grueling TC race is the Belmont at 12f, and real horsemen consider it the true test of a Champion.

While the UK would consider the 4 mile Grand National as their most difficult.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 19:16:44 GMT

Wow! Gulfstream 3, Declan's Warrior and Narvaez dogfight down the home stretch to the wire..dead heat. What a fantastic run from 2 determined colts. I'll be watching them when they go longer than 7.5f.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Slew — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 19:04:43 GMT

Since I've seen Crop Report and Treasury Bill and He's Had Enough staggering lengths behind the winner of their respective races, I don't have much faith in them.

Age of Reason: 3 seconds on dirt does not make a race on dirt. I think Dice Flavor has something very special. I just hope they nominate him soon...he already has 20 points if they do.

We all have a lot of races yet to see. Best horse doesn't always translate into Derby winner...but we have faith, and a bagful of hope.

I hope everyone enjoys these preps.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

myntjulius — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 18:45:09 GMT

I for one am very disappointed to see that the triple crown races keep falling to lightly raced horses that after winning, so often are never heard from again. Where are the battle tested champions of old that gave the fans a hero to cheer for for entire seasons?? I refuse to believe that thoroughbreds are so fragile that they can only handle 3-4 races in a year and then they are done. If they spent more time RACING and less time TRAINING perhaps we could enjoy more of their performances. These athletes thrive on competition, and it should be the trainers job to keep them sound and race them as often as possible. THAT is what the sport needs, Champions, not one hit wonders. The likes of War Admiral, Affirmed, and Citation would be ashamed!!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

myntjulius — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 18:44:38 GMT

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Coldfacts — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 15:28:02 GMT

The unbeaten Park City has captured my attention as a second wave mention. He will be part of the Tampa Bay Derby field and I do not believe he was nominated as filler.

He broke his maiden in July at 5F with a closing effort in a good time of 58 2/5 and then disappeared. His next start was almost 7 months later where met a loose on the lead Cat Five Hurricane in a 6 1/2F Optional Claim. He squeezed out a fighting NK victory.

In Both his wins the recorded fractions were very fast i.e., 22 & 45 and he closed on both occasions. He was sired by the very hot Harlan’s Holiday out of a Pleasant Colony broodmare. From his running style he is no sprinter. For him to win a 5F in 58 and a 61/2F in 1:17 and a bit, it suggests he is a very classy colt that is a serious unknown quantity.

He is one of three unbeaten colt in the TBD and with a very hot pace expected, this colt could be closing for a major piece of the pie.

NB: He did not look very comfortable on the GP surface and might just prefer TBD.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Coldfacts — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 14:53:04 GMT

There were two Scat Daddy colts in the 2012 Derby i.e., Daddy Knows Best and Daddy Long Legs.

Daddy Knows Best won Synthetic, Turf and Dirt and Daddy Long Legs won on Synthetic and Turf.

Both colts were impressive in their Synthetic and Turf victories but were amongst the also ran in the Derby.

Why is there so much interest in Dice Flavor?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Coldfacts — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 14:36:54 GMT

We can all be excused for overlooking cold facts but there is no absolutely no excuse for disparaging comments about any Derby winner. The Derby is by far the most difficult race to win and MTB record setting performance is one of the best seen in the last 40 year or more. I could understand if he had inched by Pioneerof The Nile by a HD but he did not. The decimated the field with his rider having time to look back and point his whip to those he had left in his wake.

To classify MTB as being no good underscores the overwhelming ignorance associated with some contributors. Mine That Bird was 2008 Canadian Champion 2YO. Which other Derby winners were Canadian Champion 2YOs? Northern Dancer and Sunny’s Halo!

MTB recorded a time of 2:02.66 on a sloppy track. Super Saver and Smarty Jones recorded time of 2:04.45 and 2:04.06 on similar tracks. Animal Kingdom recorded a time of 2:02.04 on a less challenging track.

MIT was a diminishing 1/2L behind eventual HOY Rachael Alexander in the Preakness. He was 3rd to the eventual Champion 3YO Summer Bird in the Belmont. The little gelding took on the ultimate test for 3YOs and came away flying colors .How many before has been in the top three in all three legs of the TC?

How can anyone with a functional brain consider this horse no good?

I respectfully request that some contributors engage their brains before engaging their keyboards.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 14:20:34 GMT

KY VET

Most of them were injuries. Pushed too hard, too young, on medications is one possibility but you can't discount bad luck on a few. At least three are from the same barn but it's a big barn so percentage wise isn't that high. It's all speculation. As far as lessons are concerned I forget them all the time and have to relearn them. The game is complex, old lessons forgotten, new lessons learned. Things change too. There are far more variables than most people take into account.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Beware the Second Wave

joepo — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 12:28:52 GMT

Steve - I'm glad that you have included 2 of my Future Bet 2 horses on this list. I have Treasury Bill at 28-1 and Titletown Five at 61-1 in exacta boxes with 10 other legitimate contenders. I would love to see Treasury Bill win the Rebel next week. I also have Oxbow in FB 1 and FB 2 bets. I will be rooting for an Oxbow/Treasury Bill exacta in next weeks Rebel as I try to qualify my future bet horses for the Derby. Titletown Five may be pointed to the Sunland Derby, where he will face Shakin it Up. I would love to see Titletown Five win this race so that Lukas could train him up to the Derby. Also glad to see that the Sunland Derby is 1 1/8, which gives Titletown Five a chance to stretch his legs.