Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

JoyJackson21 — Sat, 30 Mar 2013 20:36:29 GMT

To Pedigree Ann,

I am not a neophyte to the sport, and I know full well that the Kentucky Derby has gained significant stature over the years from the time Regret ran in the Derby in the early 1900s. In my original post, I said if today's points system was in place during Regret's era, she might not have made it to the gate for the KD she actually won. You did not apply the supposition of applying today's standards to her race in your response to my post, you told me what I already knew about the stature of the race in those days. The explaination doesn't resolve the problem that needs to be fixed in the points system.

To your point about Genuine Risk: With Genuine Risk running against males and coming in third in the Wood Memorial, she would have earned only 20 points for a third place and more than likely would have missed being in the starting gate in her Kentucky Derby. Thirty or more points might stand up this year to get a horse in the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby, 20 points probably will not cut it. The Wood's 20 points probably would not have cut it for Genuine Risk, either. That was my point in my original post, and you have again proven the point I was trying to make. We would have lost a winning performance by a female horse in the Kentucky Derby had this points system been in existence in Genuine Risk's time.

To your point that most of the fillies who have run in the Derby came in 4th or worse, I can say the same for male horses as well. Approximately 4 female horses have hit the board in the past 138 years of the Kentucky Derby, appoximately 410 colts have hit the board during that time, and 1,000+ colts have NOT hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. So, it is totally irrelevant that only 4 out of roughly 12 females have bit the board. That is approximately the same percentage of colts who have placed in the race vs. number of colts who have not placed in the race. You do have a point, however, that the new points system works to the advantage of late developing 3 year olds.

Sfcjordan, I am well aware that the owners of fillies are allowed to enter their fillies in these races, however, the rules as they are now do not encourage an owner to send their filly down the Triple Crown path. What if you change your mind in early winter and decide your filly is pretty formidable and should be running against colts as well? Is there an ABSOLUTE guarantee in place that if you do start steering your filly down the TC path instead of the Oaks path you can completely transfer her points earned in the Oaks trail at equal value and that the Oaks version of a stakes race has the same amount of points and stature appointed to it as a TC qualifying stakes race? It just has not been fully addressed that you can do so. The current rules can psychologically influence an owner to send their filly down the Oaks path and ONLY down the Oaks path. I would like, and think it would be admirable, to see equity applied in all of this and make sure the rules are encouragingly inclusive to both sexes.

I also believe that a couple of the two year old stakes races, definitely the Breeders' Cup Juvenile & the one at Saratoga, should receive may 5 or 10 more points than it presently does. That would distinguish those races as being significant to win above other 2 year old races and gives them enough points to being nearer to qualifying for the Derby, but not quite have enough to guarantee a spot in the starting gate. That would leave a little room to encourage their owners to have to enter their horses into later 3 year old preps to prove their horses really do have the goods and are up to racing with the best of the 3 year old crop. And in response tothe rest of your post, please see the response to Pedigree Ann in regard to Genuine Risk's Derby participation.

No system is perfect, and this points system is not as well. It definitely needs tweaking. That has always been my point and has been what I have openly stated. I am sure the Churchill Downs Corporation has already realized some tweaking needs to be done to the system and will probably quietly do just so sometime in the Fall of 2013 to right some of the inequities now present in the system before horses start their trek toward the 2014 Kentucky Oaks, Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races.

Thank you, everyone. I hope you are all having a great Easter weekend. Animal Kingdom had an absolutely fabulous win today in the Dubai World Cup and has brought glory to American racing and has made all of his fans, including me, so VERY proud of him. What a horse!!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Your Only Friend — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 19:06:25 GMT

Went back read your article again......you are correct....owners,trainers can no longer lean on the rail ,talk about how good horse they have....got to run baby run.....or you are out.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Rinzler — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 11:50:41 GMT

sfcjordan, +1

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

angelaj — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 20:59:42 GMT

NEWS FLASH: To all of those crying about the point system eliminating fillies, be advised that their owners and trainers ARE ALLOWED to enter them in the prep races. Regret, Genuine Risk, and Winning Colors would not have been shut out of the Derby by the point system because they actually faced colts and won or placed in major prep point races. No one is stopping fillies from entering these prep races. So please stop with the complaints aboutthe "total mysogeny of preventing fillies from pursuing the Derby/Triple Crown". If their connections believe them to be deserving, they will enter them in the remaining prep races. If not, good luck in the Oaks!!!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:03:19 GMT

El Kabong -

Point of fact - Spanish Chestnut won the G2 San Rafael at 8f, which is no longer run, at Santa Anita. It was source of most of his graded earnings.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:00:26 GMT

JoyJackson21 -

Get a grip. Graded stakes have been around only since 1973, and the use of graded earning to limit Derby fields did not come in until a few years afterward.

In Regret's time, there were no graded races, no field limitations, and no starting gates. The horses lined up as best as possible behind a tape, which was raised to start the race. The way 'chases are still started. Oh, and she came in as champion 2yo, having beaten colts in the major stakes at Saratoga.

Before Regret won it, the Kentucky Derby was a nice regional race, and not as prestigious as the Latonia Derby in No. Kentucky. Matt Winn, the man who built the Churchill race to it current status, considered it a coup to have lured Regret to his race and her win gave him all the publicity he desired. But it still took another couple of decades for him to build the race into the premier US classic race - that title had belonged to the Belmont since 'dash' racing had become the norm (as opposed to heat racing).

Winning Colors won the Santa Anita Derby over colts and Genuine Risk was a close third in the Wood Memorial. (Only 13 ran in GR's year, so the field-limiting regulations didn't come into play.) Eight Belles is the ONLY filly to have hit the board without having run against males previously.

Many other fillies who ran in the Derby didn't do as well - Santa Anita Derby winner Silver Spoon (5th), Cupecoy's Joy (last), Excellent Meeting (5th), Three Ring (last), Arkansas Derby winner Althea (19th), Life's Magic (8th - she had been 2nd in the Norfolk, 3rd in Hol Futurity), Mata Hari (4th, won Ky JC and Brdrs Fut at 2), Nellie Flag (4th, beat colts at 2).

Furthermore, you seem to have things backward. The graded money system worked AGAINST later developing horses by counting huge 2yo purses, which could eliminate a horse who was a close second in the Florida or Santa Anita Derbies but hadn't other graded earnings - that DID happen to Pleasant Prince in 2010 and Rock Hard Ten, who actually finished first but was dq'd to 3rd, in 2004. Late developers have a better shot to get in with the points system.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Bethany Loftis — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 14:42:04 GMT

I love the new points system. Of course there will need to be some tweaking, as with every new system that's implemented, however it's a start. Trainers and owners of colts and fillies alike knew towards the end of 2012 that Churchill Downs was going to use a new points system to determine the Derby field. As a trainer, it should have been their obligation to sit down with their owners and say, "hey, if you're serious about potentionally making the Derby, we need to map out more than a few races to ensure we get the points. We need to be prepared to win some, and lose some. We can't wait until the last second with your champion and cross our fingers."

The same trainer obligation could be said for the owners of the fillies. The points system isn't designed to block out fillies, it's designed to assemble the best of the best at this time of year. If an owner of a filly wants her to dance the big dance with the big boys, then the trainer needs to map out a campaign designed around the boys to determine if she can be considered Derby worthy. Using past examples with fillies such as Genuine Risk, as a bolsterment for argument is completely irrelevant as a new system is now in place.

I look forward to the weeks to come as we get closer to the big day!!! Let's just pray the rest stay happy and healthy along this long road!

Thanks again Steve for your wonderful articles and insight! It is greatly appreciated by all of us!!!

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Saratoga AJ — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 12:49:15 GMT

A day for two old timers...a trainer and stable.

A Lucas exacta? Amazing. Especially when the winner Will Take Charge lost by 18 lengths on the same track, at the same distance, against many of the same horses a month ago. Only explanation is it was wet then.

So old timer Lucas has two for the gate on May 4th. As does the legendary Calumet Farms, who own's 2nd place finisher Oxbow.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Saratoga AJ — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 12:47:50 GMT

A day for two old timers...a trainer and stable.

So old timer Lucas has two for the gate on May 4th. As does the legendary Calumet Farms, who own's 2nd place finisher Oxbow.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

JoyJackson21 — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 01:13:00 GMT

I have real problems with the points system as it stands right now. It needs some serious tweaking, especially in its elimination of fillies qualifying for the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races, and its elimination of the Illinois Derby in the issuance of both importance and stakes points.

The Illinois Derby was eliminated because the man who owns Arlington Park is the main honcho of the Churchill Downs Corporation, and the owner of Arlington Park loathes the owner of Hawthorne Race Track. Their rivalry is toxic and Arlington's owner used this points system to play one-upsmanship with the Hawthorne owner. Never mind that Hawthorne's Illinois Derby gave us War Emblem, who won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, which gives the Illinois Derby a much better cache than some of the other stakes races that the Churchill Corporation considers "excellent" barometers of Derby-calibre horses.

And please don't get me started about the total mysogeny of preventing fillies from pursuing the Derby/Triple Crown track, because I would be typing all day invoking my ire about that stupid decision. The tragedy that happened to beautiful, brave, courageous & inspiring Eight Belles was the exception, rather than the rule. Fillies have competed very nobly in the Kentucky Derby and has won three of them. Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors probably would not have even been entered in the "qualifying" Triple Crown-relevant stakes races under this current point system if they were running today, not to mention Rachel Alexandra and Rags To Riches, who went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. This point system sucks, and it should be tweaked as soon as possible.

Trainers are avoiding certain races, like the Florida Derby, altogether (as of this date) in the chase for points elsewhere because they feel that the top three contenders in the Florida Derby race might not be beatable and will limit their horse's chances of getting a start in the Kentucky Derby, a legitimate fear I must say.

We won't have to wait very long for the Churchill Corporation to tweak this points system or eliminate it altogether, though. I think the combination of race results like the ones in today's Rebel Stakes, the Risen Star, and a couple of other stakes races that have been run so far, is making a farce out of Churchill Corporation's original intention that only the "best" horses will win those races, and other "not worthy" horses would be eliminiaed and weeded out. Three year olds are an unpredictable bunch and what happens every year is happening again this year: certain 3 year olds are late maturers, and they are suddenly coming to the forefront. Those late maturers are winning the stakes races at a pretty good clip at long shot odds for the most part, not that I'm complaining about that part because it makes for a great payday when it happens. - LOL. I don't normally bet chalks, and I love it when something 9-2 or better wins a race. I like value for my dollar. The late maturers are standing Churchill's points system on its ear right now, and there are going to be some interesting, very unexpected horses that are going to be in the starting gate in Louisville the first Saturday in May! And THAT was DEFINITELY not the intenion of the Churchill Corporation, that's for sure. By December 2013 the Churchill Corporation will probably admit their Great Experiment did not work out as well as they originally thought it would, and they will quietly make changes to the system. Hopefully, changes in the right direction, please (i.e., letting fillies compete again and giving the Illinois Derby winner at least 50 points to 100 points in the points system), or just go back to graded earnings, which wasn't such a bad system after all. Trinniberg did go on to win a Breeders' Cup race in November 2012. He has proven and redeemed himself from all of his detractors. Trinniberg did turn out to be a "worthy" horse in the end, and nobody reviles him anymore....

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 23:44:18 GMT

Neither S99 nor Delhomme or Treasury Bill ran very well in the Rebel.Sometimes keeping it simple works the best just box D Wayne in the race and the exacta is yours.

Coldfacts on to the next prep our picks bombed in the race.No bragging rights for this race, but for the body of picks thus far for the preps I know who I have picked do you?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Davids — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 23:42:31 GMT

Well, in the Rebel Stakes Super Ninety Nine reaffirmed Bob Baffert's first assumption that he is a miler. Even so, DWL runs 1, 2, too thrilling.

Joyful Victory could have easily run 12f. in her dominating performance in the Santa Margarita, a nice Grade 1 win for the Tapit filly. Is this an omen for the Derby?

Meanwhile, Incognito looked impressive at Aqueduct, is it too late for him to get to the big dance? I am hoping that an A. P. Indy colt will get there.

The Derby gods are sorting out the field in fine fettle.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Paula Higgins — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 19:40:32 GMT

Old Old cat, you are so right. Cassandra.Says, you too.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Mahuba — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 13:41:22 GMT

I agree that assuming the same decisions would be made using the point system rather than if the money system is highly unlikely. And to pick out horses who won that wouldn't have gotten in under the point system is not logical. Who knows which horses in the past might have gotten in with the point system in use and won?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Davids — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 11:13:55 GMT

Rusty Weisner, you are right, the evidence is there plain and simple. Going on the current points scored versus prize money earned - I would much rather watch the points system Kentucky Derby than the prize money earned.

I believe the 'ayes have it.'

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Cassandra.Says — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 08:12:11 GMT

We won't be able to evaluate after the Derby; we'll need more experience. The worst case scenario, which will bury this system with a stake through its heart, would be to have a horse fail to make the Derby and then win the Preakness and Belmont.

A few people have scoffed at the notion that any really good horse could fail to get in. There are some right now who are conceivably good enough to win the wins and yet not a lock on a starting position.

Things that are "good for racing" are things that make an impact beyond the "fraternity."

Good: an evolving super horse.

Offspring of a super mare everyone remembers.

Little colt from the back country on a winning streak that leads to the Derby.

My first thought on this system was that it would be a fail if it compromised the chances of the unexpected contender whose people didn't start thinking of him as a Grade 1 horse until he'd won five non-graded stakes away from the coasts.

The public is mad for these unheralded champions, but might it be too late for them to qualify by the time their herald turns up, allowing for a bad trip, a fleeting temperature necessitating a scratch, the usual small things that come at the wrong time.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Giddyup — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 07:27:37 GMT

I totally agree with what Steve said in an earlier episode of "And There Off" when he and Lenny were discussing the new points system and that is that no matter what system is eventually adopted you are always going to get some fans that think something better should be in place.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 23:59:10 GMT

Coldfacts: The Rebel field is significantly stronger and despite his excellent speed his prospect of winning are extremely remote.

OK so who will win the Rebel then?

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 23:41:38 GMT

Steve from st louis-

Back when the graded system was in place, trainers were "forced" to run in graded stakes races. The points races are the logical races that have been used for prepping for the Derby for the last decade or so. The only change is that sprint races are excluded, which is a good thing to my mind. Use a non-point sprint race to set up for running in longer point races later, sure. Use only sprint races to prep? Stupid strategy.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Age of Reason — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 23:40:58 GMT

It's already been mentioned, but I too am hopefully looking forward to seeing Footbridge break through this weekend. He continues to work very well at Hollywood Park, firing bullets in the morning as has almost become his custom; on Tuesday, the 12th he went 5f in 1:00 flat (1/19). I don't think I've ever "stuck with" a maiden after 3 losing starts, but there's just too much upside to this baby.

Orb, late development syndrome? My eye. The horse won a deep G2 in February over a Grade 1-winning 2 year old. Sure, there are certain noticeable trends with runners from certain families, but there are also exceptions to the rules. We might all approach the Derby with a little less confusion if we let those darned 'cold facts' (grin) speak for themselves, instead of trying to fit them into our own pre-conceived narratives.

(I tried to post the above comment on Steve's earlier Derby Dozen article for this week, but the link in the blogroll disappeared shortly thereafter, so I'm re-submitting it here.)

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 23:31:42 GMT

Your Only Friend -

Arlington's Spring meet doesn't open until the 3rd of May, which is one day before the Derby is run.

Now, there is a Derby prep in Chicago, the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, on April 20. But the powers at CD decided this race was less likely than the Derby Trial or the Lexington S to find a worthy Derby starter so gave it no points. The fact that Hawthorne is defending itself against the desire of Churchill Downs, Inc-owned Arlington to poach some of its dates of course has nothing to do with it. (And if you believe that, I have this property...,)

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

RJPPDP — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 22:51:38 GMT

Sorry Secret Circle had 105

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

RJPPDP — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 22:19:28 GMT

If we would have had the points system last year, this would have been the top 25:

1. Bodemeister 120

2. Secret Circle 115

3. Dullahan 111

4. I'll Have Another 110

5. Gemologist 110

6. Daddy Long Legs 110

7. Hansen 105

8. Hero of Order 105

9. Creative Cause 102

10. Take Charge Indy 101

11. Union Rags 85

12. Prospective 65

13. El Padrino 62

14. Mark Valeski 60

15. Daddy Nose Best 60

16. Alpha 55

17. Went The Day Well 50

18. Reveron 41

19. Sabercat 30

20. Optimizer 23

21. My Adonis 22

22. Wrote 22

23. Isn't He Clever 21

24. Blueskiesandrainbows 20

25. Cozzetti 20

Missing from the list Rousing Sermon, Liaison Done Talking and Trinniberg.

Race choices might have been different if the derby point system would have been in place last season. Who would have won? Who knows

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Karen in Texas — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 20:56:38 GMT

Rusty W.,

Thanks for linking the ESPN article.

re: Haskin's Derby Trail: Points of No Return

Your Only Friend — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 19:51:51 GMT

Never understood why "Arlington" was not included in Point System if they came up with Grade 1 qualifying race?