Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Tattenham Corner — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:43:54 GMT

I liked GunBow's perspective on the difference between harness racing and the thoroughbreds. Few t'breds today would ever achieve one tenth of those stats--incredible! Is polytrack making any difference or is it too early to tell?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

LDP — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 19:44:07 GMT

Dray,

OF ran that race and came out with a fracture in his knee. To run like he did with a fracture is remarkable. I wonder how badly he would've beanten the field had he not been injured. It is a shame he got injured, and anything this horse has done should not be diminished.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Karen2 — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:38:34 GMT

Interesting post Marc W. Its always fun to see things from the gamblers side. As someone who doesn't bet, there are many angles that aren't even considered when trying to choose the winner.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Marc W — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 15:54:47 GMT

Thoughts,

OK Win Willy lost--could have gave him points had he caught the former 15K claimer as they ran about the same race-but he wasn't gaining on him. My early Derby bet is appearing to be toast--took a shot ---lost. (Funny I put this on the other blog and it didn't make the cut-since I have been somewhat high on WW-I guess the comment about having humility and saying I was wrong without using excuses killed it.)

The Blue Grass results makes ColdFacts MM comments appear better, also makes FL Derby look bad if Theregoesjojo was a top contender. It was poly so jury out.

Funny, I like Regal Ransom better than Desert Party but think they will receive a good bath for all the dirt on them after the Derby, not roses. Red Ransom as WELL AS Regal Ransom are names used in the past---there was a Canadian horse years ago named Regal Ransom-I am pretty sure. 25 year name recycling in effect.

Now on to the works--one more point-not choosing the right-wrong of either argument Tampa Derby win vs Wood 2nd value point wise. Will say this though and would love to bet on it

Kelly Leak who ran in neither will have double to triple the money of West Side Bernie at the end of the year because they are managing the horse properly. I am probably the biggest fan of going for the money and not destroying a horses spirit and will to win by getting their A--kicked running them against the nuts. As a true gambler I even play cards on occasion--I am not bad--the guys at work kicked me out of the game because I won 7 weeks in a row and the cigar club I go to-I can't seem to get in a game anymore after a few wins. Saying that, I certainly couldn't sit down with good players and win. I knew that quite a while ago but needed to re-enforce that so last year while at Prairie Meadows after the races I sat down at a low limit table-a couple hours later and $900 up I went to a higher stakes one--they read me like a book and I walked out minus $40. Its good to know where you fit well. Kelly Leak will have a million besides his name and his owners can invest in a number of horses next year. Those chasing dreams of grandeur will have 2009 KY Derby program souvenirs with their name on it.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Karen2 — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 14:17:48 GMT

Dray... because "anything can happen in the derby". I believe it was a trainer by the name of Nick Zito that made that comment or one similiar to it. If QR was the foregone conclusion we wouldn't need to run the race. We could just all show up that first Saturday in May and watch him gallop around the track. If I recall you had stated Win Willy would win the Arkansas. He didn't even show up. Old Fashioned battled to take second in a race run with fast splits and he suffered an injury. We need the competition. It just makes the derby and the winner so much more sensational.QR will face a tough field.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Draynay — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 12:58:55 GMT

So... Win Willy and Papa Clem beat Old Fashioned who was distance challenged and these two horses should be considered for the Derby why ???

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Travis L — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 12:35:28 GMT

What determines when a blog is taken off and or a new one added. Just curious why the Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby was taken off so fast. Wrong picks?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Karen2 — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 18:38:11 GMT

Better rephrase my comment. I was impressed with what I saw yesterday out of Old Fashioned. He has a big heart. I wasn't impressed with the outcome and his career ending injury. Papa Clem could be a horse that flies in under the radar and beats everyone in the derby.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Karen2 — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 18:30:07 GMT

Old Fashioned out, probably for the rest of his careeer. Pamplemouse...possibly the same thing. Such wonderful, talented colts suffering such injuries so soon in their careers. Something has got to give.

not impressed with the race yesterday. Didn't see anything spectacular.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Laura — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 17:28:37 GMT

Like him or not, one cannot deny Wayne's presence in the idustry. Enjoyed your article, Steve.

Laura P. (formerly Lukas)

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

LDP — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 16:13:28 GMT

I can't believe the luck of Larry Jones. OF is off the trail due to a slab fracture in his knee, sustained in the AK Derby. They said it may be carree ending. What an absolute shame, he could've gone on to become a very good horse. My condolences to Larry and the rest of the OF team, and good luck.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

stardust — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 15:55:43 GMT

Well I got the news this morning about Old Fashion. :-(

Well now he won't be running the Derby. Old Fashion sorry big guy. I hope you get well fast and your leg starts to heal. Such a beautiful horse.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Matthew W — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 10:34:27 GMT

much more impressed with General Quarters today--that horse will get the Derby Distance! He ran like a real pro today--that's important--he's won two graded two-turn races and thats one more than Quality Road and two more than Dunkirk and he'll be double/triple their odds! Loads of contenders this year! Hold Me Back is another with a real shot--think I Want Revenge will be the only guy under 6-1....

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 07:06:42 GMT

I went to the local harness track here in the Detroit area tonight, and thought the thoroughbred audience would be amused/intrigued by some of the horses' stats, particularly in light of Old Fashioned's untimely injury.

The following stats are organized: Horse(age) starts-wins-places-shows

Blue Oxfords(13) 332-80-59-58

JC(13) 308-92-68-50

Kel's Comet(12) 301-57-45-31

Bold Adventure(11) 264-40-44-51

Johnny G Thats Me(9) 206-41-35-27

Talon Seelster(9) 177-47-28-15

Pacific Titan(10) 173-29-29-15

Johnny Made Her(7) 164-32-30-14

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 06:50:28 GMT

For Big Red:

While I remain unimpressed with Papa Clem's 2nd in the La Derby, I am impressed with the horse overall. Evidently, Papa Clem was not supposed to be on the lead in the La Derby, and the connections believe he didn't care for the slop. The Arkansas Derby was his first start on a fast dirt track. In my opinion, Papa Clem's 2 best performances were his Arkansas Derby win (obviously) and his 2nd in the Bob Lewis, when ahead of I Want Revenge. Those 2 performances place him with horses like Musket Man, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, Hold Me Back, and West Side Bernie. And while I am not impressed by how Papa Clem and the other La Derby also-rans performed in that race, I fully respect Friesan Fire, and recognize that part of the reason those other horses looked so bad is that Firesan Fire ran THAT well.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 06:31:32 GMT

Stardust:

It looks like your intuition about Old Fashioned was spot on.

I think his experience with Eight Belles has led Larry Jones to be very conservative with Friesan Fire, something which will only be reinforced with the Old Fashioned injury.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 06:28:00 GMT

Unfortunately, Old Fashioned is out of the Derby and his career may be over. He suffered a fracture to his knee during the Arkansas Derby. It puts a whole new light on the stretch run of the Arkansas Derby. Good luck in recovery. Sadly, he will probably not be the last Derby hopeful to fall to injury.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 05:42:44 GMT

For Big Red:

Also, the reason I wasnt impressed with Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby is not because he finished 2nd to Friesan Fire, it was because he was beaten by 7 lengths; it was the margin of the defeat I didn't like not the horse that beat him. I havent written anything negative about Friesan Fire, and have had him ranked in my top 4 since the Louisiana Derby. I have written repeatedly that I respect any horse that can win 3 straight graded stakes. Papa Clem certainly flattered Friesan Fire in the Arkansas Derby, but the other Louisiana Derby also-rans have not fared nearly as well. But, yes, when others ask "who as he beaten", the answer for Friesan Fire is the winner of a million dollar race.

As it concerns the 7 week layoff, I'm not sure what to think. The key will be how he trains, but I would think he will be given some fairly serious morning exercises. Hopefully, Steve can help with interpretting his works.

In terms of horses being flattered by the results of other races, Pioneer of the Nile is on top. To the question, "who has he beaten?", the answer for Pioneer of the Nile is very impressive. There is I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, and Chocolate Candy; those 3 horses have combined for 5 wins and 2 seconds in their next 7 starts after having faced Pioneer of the Nile. Included among these victories are the grade 1 Wood, grade 2 $1million Arkansas Derby, grade 3 Gotham, grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, and the $100,000 California Derby, along with 2nds in the grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Additionally, Massone, 2nd in the El Camino Real, ran a good 3rd in the grade 1 Blue Grass. If Pioneer takes to dirt, he will be a major force in the Derby.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 05:20:36 GMT

I liked the performances of General Quarters, Hold Me Back, Papa Clem, and even Old Fashioned. However, it does appear that Old Fashioned is not going to thrive at 10 furlongs. I had the other 3 ranked in my 4th tier going into the day, and now have them in the 3rd tier.

I have I Want Revenge and Quality Road at the top tier, as I believe they are the fastest and most talented runners. However, they are far from a sure thing, and I think other horses have a solid shot as well. My 2nd tier is Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, and then Dunkirk.

My 3rd tier is bulky, and includes Papa Clem, General Quarters, Hold Me Back, Musket Man, Chocolate Candy, West Side Bernie, and Old Fashioned. I think the Dubai horses, Regal Ransom and Desert Party also belong here, but I am very skeptical of the Dubai to Kentucky route. Those 2 would have to train very well to sway me, although I do think they are quality colts.

That's 14 possible starters right there. Not only do I think this crop has some potential superstars, but this is a very deep crop as well. I really wouldn't be stunned if the any of the 3rd tier horses were to win the Derby, although it takes alot to really shock me when it comes to horse racing. In addition to the horses mentioned above, there are other, promising lightly raced horses like Mr Hot Stuff, Mr Fantasy, Just a Coincidence, Kelly Leak, and Summer Bird.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 05:03:33 GMT

For Big Red:

I still am not impressed by Papa Clem's 2nd in the Louisiana Derby. He was beaten 7 lengths with a 90 Beyer. However, on Jason's blog I provided a more extensive preview in which, having thought about it more, picked Papa Clem to run 3rd. So, I am not "surprised" to see him win". Please, see my other post as I was much more positive atowards Papa Clem. For me, the impressive race for Papa Clem wasn't that 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, it was the 2nd in the Bob Lewis, a half length behind Pioneer and ahead of I Want Revenge.

As for Friesan Fire, the Louisiana Derby also-rans have had mixed results. While Papa Clem came out of the race to win, Giant Oak ran moderately for 2nd in the Illinois Derby, while Terrain, Patena, and Free Country have since run out of the money. Additionally, Nowhere to Hide, a Risen Star also ran, has finished out of the money in his last 2.

I have Friesan Fire rated 4th, behind IWR, Quality Road, and Pioneer; he definitely has a good shot to win the Derby, as I respect any horse that can win 3 straight graded stakes. The 7 weeks is the question for me.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Alan — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 03:50:18 GMT

Old Fashioned and Quality Road will cancel each other out in the Derby.

I Want Revenge and Dunkirk will be the horses to beat.

I Want Revenge.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

Derby132 — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 02:29:25 GMT

Just read that Old Fashioned suffered a slab fracture in the Arkansas Derby today and is shipping to Rood and Riddle in KY for surgery tomorrow. Non-life threateneing but could very well be career ending according to Larry Jones. OF tried hard today.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

helsbelles — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:32:45 GMT

Papa Clem came through, and joins IWR, POTN, ChocCandy. I only hope Ziegfeld is ok (oh gosh). RIP Nick Adenhart, we love you.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

stardust — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:29:56 GMT

Well after today, I feel a lot different about these horses. I think Chocolate Candy will hit the win and I think that Quality Road won't be in the Derby. I just feel that with OF, he is being run too much. Win Willy too. Why run those horses this close to the Derby? They already have a spot in the Derby. They need their rest. Me and my mother hen instinct. I just feel that horses need more than 3 weeks in between races. Really the Kentucky Derby? My Gosh, they need their strength. Old Fashion really is a good horse. Twice now, second. I don't know. He used to be my pick. I think he will come in the money but not the win. Maybe 3rd or 4th. Maybe.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Old Fashioned Blunder

stardust — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:22:40 GMT

I don't feel that good about Old Fashion anymore. I love that horse. I feel that he is running too much. He didn't need to run today. He needs rest. :-( Such a beautiful horse. He doesn't have a whole lot of time to rest before the first Saturday in May. I have a lot of respect for Larry Jones. I wonder who made the decision to run that horse so close to the Derby when he didn't need to run. I just want him safe. He is such a good horse.