Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Ranagulzion — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 00:21:16 GMT

Bravo again Zarvona! It's always reassuring to read the musings of like-minded fans of this wonderful game.

For a long time I felt lonely on these Blogs touting the (somewhat masked) brilliance of Big Drama. With your esteemed opinion of this horse out in the open I can see the a rush to the Big Drama bandwagon for the Preakness.

You haven't clearly stated your pick for the Derby or have you? However this year's Derby winner will have one serious "customer" awaiting him in Baltimore and conceivably, two if Rachel Alexandra somehow enters the fray). I believe Quality Road is "el numero uno" thus far and if things proceed according to empirical data and savy horsesense (minus injury and misfortune) it's gonna be a "thrilla in manilla" when the Preakness arrives. This is turning out to be a deep and talented crop of 3YOs.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

zarvona — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 17:52:52 GMT

P.S. Thusly, my most memorable moment was the return was "Big Drama", returning after injury and putting away the Sunshine Million Dash 6 fur. winner over 7 fur. in track breaking record time!! And, my biggest worry prior to that re "Big Drama" before then was his speed! He took that consideration right off of the table.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

zarvona — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 17:49:13 GMT

And “Yes”, Karen2, a lower DI. only means “more suitable to the distance”. But, any DI lower than 3.60 is totally acceptable and most all up to 4.00, the established cut off figure, (not by me) per the founders conclusions and is just a cutoff figure one should guard against when picking the winner or a horse suitable to a 1 ¼ race or longer.

And, “NO”, Karen2, a lower DI does not mean one horse is more suitable, or faster, or should be favored over another with a higher DI, that is, up to the 4.00 cutoff class by comparison so established, where 2.40 is the current average so presently arrived at. Which again is not to say, that a horse with a DI of 1.80 is any better or faster or more suitable to win than a horse with a DI of 3.50. So do not get confused along those lines!!! And, that does not mean that a horse cannot be successful if his DI is at or higher than 4.00 either, ie. “Curlin”! and “Musket Man”, thus far. This is all based on multiply bloodline followings and the expressed math that one falls asleep to reading as introduced by Rasmussen. If your get your "Blood-Horse" Magazine religiously, just take a highlighter and highlight winners’ pedigrees back the several generations listed each week, where eventually you’ll easily start to see some trends, like the names of "Northern Dancer"; "Mr. Prospector", "Raise A Native", etc., which start repeating themselves, and such might intrigue you more and more. Unfortunately, the most races that we all have to look at for determining success at 1 ¼ have to be taken from the lesser distances of a 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 races and the like. Youthful 2 and 3 year olds are not in the business of training at a 1 3/8 or a 1 ¼ and I am not even sure if many such distances are even offered to them until we run the Derby! Thusly we have to look even more attentively at bloodline to scrutinize as to who ‘might’ be successful at the greater distance. Many in these blogs have traced pedigrees back identifying the traits on the male and female side that they have found desirable to aiding toward the breeding of producing more successful “DISTANCE HORSES”. Stamina, unfortunately coupled with “the need for speed”, and some suitability to the distance and then some percent of a number of wins by some such an ancestor, or the fact that he or she has produced other successful racing offspring seems to be what most are looking for from such a bloodline analysis. Thusly, this is the “Bloodline Sport” and why so many point to this and that trait and potentially significant in the various multiple different breeding lines out there. The DI grid so established was merely to have been an aid in pointing out greater strengths for distance and stamina from various bloodlines and that is where it is a useful tool. Apparently, not all agree with Rasmussen’s theory or his conclusions, yet we list “DI” and “CD” in all pedigree charts!, thusly some took note of its value!!

Thusly, the theory being, that the better bred for the purpose of this particular distance will have a better chance of success in this marvelous spectacle of what we call “The Derby”. This is the Super Bowl of horses races, where some goodly portion of the entire country gets involved for one day for the “Fame” in this, ‘the greatest two minutes in sports’. And not all are bettors or gamblers! Most forget the “Blue Grass Cats” that ran 2nd or lower that don’t follow the sport more intently, like remembering and naming last year’s runner-up baseball or basketball team. But many remember and talk about past Derby winners! The names of “Smarty Jones”, “Secretariat”, and “Barbaro”, and etc., become house hold names that people remember years after the fact. No race, not the Preakness or the Belmont, is publicly remembered liked the Derby. Some accomplished P.T. Barnum type sold us all on this concept once long ago via the media airway of the day and we are all still intrigued by it, some more than others obviously like the ones that read and post here. My blog contribution was to give some awareness to bettors that read here. Again, my words are not gospel, take from them what you will. I just think that Steve might see more in the value of Rasmussen’s work and occasionally point out where maybe the consideration of DI is possibly a factor. If your memory is short, Steve had a horse with a DI of 5.22 on the top of his marvelous “dozen list” for x number of weeks and stated even ‘he was only there by default’ and that he did not necessarily see him as the Derby winner until someone else came along??? Of Course way back when, I had “Big Drama” at the top of my list and neither will be going to ‘the dance’. LoL. Procrastinating a week before the Derby is actually kind of silly then isn’t it? huh? But, it sure is fun!!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

da3hoss — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 11:50:33 GMT

My most memorable moment was the AD, picking the tri of Papa Clem, Old Fashioned & Summer Bird...PC's and OF's duel, neither willing to lose, Papa Clem's & OF's hearts showing in their faces, Summer Bird's athletic, beautiful run against such class in his 3rd start...finding out OF ran with a slab fracture made his determination only the more poignant...

That's the race that stands out for me.

Tin Cup Chalice and Zany, we remember you.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Mike S — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:28:48 GMT

MR. HOT STUFF all the way! Whoooo Hooo!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

For Big Red — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:17:18 GMT

West Side Bernie is reported to have had "a touch" of colic after shipping to Churchill Downs. That, and other factors, make him a complete toss for me.

I Want Revenge is reported to have gotten cast in his stall, causing some scrapes and bruises on his left knee. This can be a minor issue, but let's see his works. The colt's first work at CD was an extremely easy 4f breeze in :50, out in 1:04.60. The work was more of a gallop than a true breeze. What we in the general public can't know is whether or not this incident has affected IWR's condition in any but a minor way.

Based on their first works at CD, the Dubai horses might be training with somewhat different agendas: Regal Ransom to go out quickly, Desert Party to finish quickly. Although his overall time for his 6f work was slower than RR, DP actually finished up quicker. Let's see if this work pattern continues.

At Santa Anita, Pioneerof the Nile worked with a "rabbit" stablemate to chase. POTN wasn't pressured by the rider, but was still extended to pass his stablemate and get 4f in a bullet :46.20 breezing (1/39).

I wish videos were available in a central place for every work of every Derby contender. Actually seeing a complete work tells me a heck of a lot more than just reading about them.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

TouchStone Farms — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 13:57:15 GMT

Steve,

As of this morning Mafaaz is still listed under the graded stakes listings (now withdrawn), and "Mine That Bird" isn't listed at all and yet is reported as a starter on May 2nd? In my mind's eye it strikes me a little odd as I think once they check the finish line on the 2nd they may find a colt by the name of "Mr. Hot Stuff" waiting to greet them all as they cross the mile & a quarter mark. Just my way of responding to all the hoopla that seems to encompass the rest of the potential entries.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

zarvona — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 10:09:56 GMT

TY FOR BIG RED for you explanation that would have taken me as long as finding and posting the other info to explain. Google is a great search engine that is where I started! If one needs more on the “D.I.” explanation! or on “chef-de-race”, or “CD”, or “DQ”, etc.

And ok ok, I did make a slight error in stating 90 years times 20 entries, told you I was no mathematician. It has been pointed out to me, that it was only over the last 80 years, thusly not knowing the exact number of entries (20 per year estimate) or how many entered with a DI of 4.00 or higher, etc., there have only been 4 WINNERS from 1600 entries thusly 1 in 400!! or .25 % that won the Derby in the past 80 years and that had a D.I. of 4.00 or higher... and as stated, thusly 4 of 1600 have broken the rule. Do you want to fight those odds?? .25 % ??

Again this is only a tool and only a tool used to distinguish a NON winner. Odds are therefore just math not horses on a track, not getting out of the gate, slowing the pacing, bumping, get trapped in traffic, and etc., where I can’t tell you about “the trip”, I can only single out those that I don’t see crossing the finish line First based on pedigree. Anyone can finish 2nd through 19th!! But the point was, that the chance of a horse with a D.I. of 4.00 and higher at a 1 ¼ is vastly diminished. The explanation above re stamina via breeding etc., generic to the longer 1 ¼ race only should make one therefore see the concept behind its value and that such applies even more to 1 1/2. It is not an absolute, but spanned a 50 year period without a winner as specified. There are only 20 horses this year to be entered in the Kentucky Derby, 3 with a D.I. of 4.00 or higher so far per the above list by FOR BIG RED (I earlier listed others that I singled out and identified that were earlier contenders to make that list during the year, which one might want to refer to if they are entries in the Belmont, which history and the above article tells us THEY SHOULDN’T BE. Thusly, my premise is that in betting on the likes of “Win Willy”; “Mine That Bird”; and “Musket Man”, being those so identified, “TO WIN”, the chance of any of them being “the Winner” is greatly decreased and I actually like “Musket Man”, just not as the winner as stated earlier. If all factors were equal, with 20 horses entered and non scratched, each should also be a assigned a Morning Line Odds figure of 20-1, right?. Yet, this isn’t the case, is it?? Because all the factors aren’t even. Some other factors make the Morning Line Odds set varying widely from 3-1 to 50-1. Why? because the horses are not all clones and because Mike Battaglia loses so much sleep figuring out who should be assigned what odds! he has to ask Steve Haskins for help! But the point is, “Giacomo” wasn’t the 3-1 favorite and neither will “Win Willy” be. I won’t bet “Win Willy” to win by percentage! But, if you love him feel free, because he may go off greater than “Giacomo” at 50-1!!! for larger than a $102.00 return on a $2.00 bet! But percentages alone via the “DI RULE” says he won’t be the 1 in 20 winner at the finish line. Again, this rule is based on the 400-1 figure over 80 years and yet is not an absolute, as proven where it has been broken, and only applies to the 1 ¼ races or longer as designed, and is just a simple easy handicapping aid. However, my earlier point was, that Steve keeps dismissing ‘the rule’ as outdated and I certainly don’t see why if one reads the above posting thoroughly! This is not to say that “Win Willy” won’t come in 2nd just appears to lesson his chance of winning versus the other 17 entries with a lesser D.I. than 4.00.

And, I never understood the “Storm Cat” line breeding problem either, as stated several times, but by “percentage”, his bred line never is in the winner’s circle, and yet I like his breeding and for most all distances under 1 ¼ !!! And again, “Blue Grass Cat” went on to be 2nd in the Derby and the Preakness. I had him ‘to win’ in the Future Pool, but forgot to add him as 2nd on Derby Day in my exacta plays! He didn’t win, thusly the “Storm Cat Rule” of getting to the winners circle held up, but that didn’t stop him from finishing in the money!! We are talking here of narrowing the field down by percentage to identify a WINNER, that is simply all. These are tools to aid one that I follow. But, if I get 95-1 or 99-1 on “Musket Man”, believe me I will spend a few dollars, expecting a bad investment! But then again, even “Giacomo” crossed the finish line first! so who knows!!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Matthew W — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 03:06:15 GMT

I think POTN wins The Belmont...if he gets the Derby I think he'll get it all....I also think he's the best horse of this crop.....The Robert Lewis clearly shows he's the best horse of his crop seen so far!...I Want Revenge will be his biggest challenge...General Quarters is also a contender but I think it's down to those three for me...I'll let the Florida guys beat me/go with the proven class---POTN is the proven class/has Baffert which is a HUGE advantage in this theatre!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Karen2 — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 02:08:09 GMT

I just read the story about Tin cup Chalice...How sad. I hate to hear about these accidents. I hope the jockey is o.k.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Karen2 — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 00:27:21 GMT

Wow.. thanks Big Red and Rangulzion for the info. Now my head is spinning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!maybe I won't worry about the DI : )

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

sophiekea — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 23:55:36 GMT

I just read about Summer Bird heading to the Derby! Im so happy about that.

But on a sad note, that was a horrible accident for Tin Cup Chalice. My condolences to his connections. He was a very nice horse.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

The Phantom — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 23:13:10 GMT

Revenge and Eddie, Quality ,Nile, Dun, Fire Desert who knows but one thing for sure there will not be a heavy favorite to win so the prices should be real good.

Eddie could be a serious threat if he's ready, a big if.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

For Big Red — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:52:04 GMT

TO KAREN2: To answer your question about what "Dosage" is, it's a complex theory that uses a mathematical formula to attempt to quantify speed and stamina influences passed down from prepotent sires in the breed. Here's a link to the overview on the official site: www.chef-de-race.com/.../review.htm

Unless you're a mathematician, it will make your head spin. So let me boil it down. The late, great DRF pedigree analyst, Leon Rasmussen, became a believer in the Dosage system circa the late 1960's or early 1970's, and he began incorporating Dosage information into his pedigree analysis columns. He also modified the original methodology and discovered that no Kentucky Derby winner had a "Dosage Index" over 4.00 and a "Center of Distribution Index" over 1.25. Naturally, many people rushed to include Dosage in their Derby handicapping. All went fine for years, until a horse came along who did not qualifiy on Dosage, but did win the Derby. Since then, it's happened several times -- how many, I can't say without doing a lot of research.

Dosage only relys on prepotent sires (who are designated "chefs-de-race" in the methodology). This is why I've never been a big supporter of the system. It only takes a cursory knowledge of genetics to realize any system that excludes half an animal's genetic inheritance is flawed. But after all these years, the Dosage concept is very ingrained in the sport.

I don't want to bore you with a long write-up of the several reasons why I'm not a huge Dosage proponent as a handicapping tool. But here's the best one. All but a few horses in any Derby field will qualify on Dosage. In many Derbies, all the starters qualify.

Here's the probable 2009 field. The first number after the horse's name is the DI. The second is the CDI.

Charitable Man - 2.06 - 0.69

Chocolate Candy - 2.08 - 0.70

Desert Party - 3.80 - 1.00

Dunkirk - 3.00 - 0.68

Flying Private - 3.67 - 0.88

Friesan Fire - 3.00 - 0.65

General Quarters - 2.69 - 0.67

Giant Oak - 3.00 - 0.94

Hold Me Back - 3.44 - 0.80

I Want Revenge - 3.00 - 0.69

Mine That Bird - 5.40 - 1.19

Mr. Hot Stuff - 2.11 - 0.64

Musket Man - 4.00 - 1.10

Papa Clem - 3.36 - 0.92

Pioneerof the Nile - 3.89 - 0.86

Quality Road - 2.38 - 0.73

Regal Ransom - 2.00 - 0.54

Square Eddie - 3.40 - 1.00

Summer Bird - 2.56 - 0.69

Take the Points - 1.35 - 0.30

West Side Bernie - 1.80 - 0.50

Win Willy - 5.00 - 1.13

You'll quickly see that only Mine That Bird and Win Willy don't qualify on Dosage. Some system, huh. It only gives itself a 90% to 100% chance of being right most years.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Ranagulzion — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:19:24 GMT

KAREN 2: If you go by the truism that "pace makes the race" and consider the developing pace scenario in the Derby with Quality Road as the controlling speed, the outcome will be clear. Don't go nuts, go bananas over QR.

Just my two cents on the Storm Cat question: that stallion has a dismal record in the Derby (as well as AP Indy) despite being bred to the creme de la creme of the North American broodmar band for two decades. I believe that his dam Terlinga carries a very dominant speed/stamina-deficient genetic trait (perhaps inherited through grand sire Bold Ruler) that stymies the chances of Storm Cat progenies in the Kentucky Derby. Most of the Storm Cats are stamped in multiple traits with Terlingua' qualities. Cat Thief, High Yield and Bluegrass Cat were the only ones I can recall out of a large number that had real Derby shots. Cat Thief matured later in the year to win the Breeeder's Cup Classic, High Yield appeared to have been mismanaged by D. Wayne Lukas (running two gut-wrenchers as preps plus a bad draw in the derby) and Bluegrass Cat ran into "Hurricaine" Barbaro in the 2006 Derby.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Karen2 — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 21:32:55 GMT

Zarvona I am intriqued by your blogs. Can you help me understand exactly what a dosage index is? If I am reading this correctly, the lower, the better? I would imagine with the new proride and synthetic surfaces, this will have an effect on the DI? Beside PON and WW you have written "high DI". What does this mean? Sorry about all the questions.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Karen2 — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 21:12:55 GMT

Just out of curiosity Zarvona, why do you exclude Storm Cat breeding? Thanks.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Karen2 — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 21:12:03 GMT

This derby is driving me nuts. I simply cannot decide who I like for the win. Everytime I zero in on one of them, I watch a replay of a race, or see a work and change my mind. Why should I care?? I don't even bet......

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

dennismc — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 20:43:54 GMT

having seen square eddies first two races in the uk let me tell you he wont stay in the kd.musket mans performane in the id and the crucial decision of coa to ride hime is significant wont be out of the first three ill be watching from newmarket with bated breath

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

steve s — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 20:38:13 GMT

Iwant rev and gen q(lost about four len in blue grass)are about equal in speed rating yet come derby day odds Iwr 4-1, GQ 25-1

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

zarvona — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 19:56:26 GMT

TY Ranaglzion, you and all are entirely welcome.

Let me again state another consideration. I also disqualify as a "potential winner" all horses with "Storm Cat" breeding, where it did once cost me dearly not playing "Blue Grass Cat" for 2nd applying my own rules again, even though I liked the horse and even played him in the Future Pool that year as a winner!!! lol! at myself.

However, the above DI rule much like this breeding exclusion rule does not exclude anyone from coming in 2nd through 19th!! and occasionally even 1st, as in the case of "Giacomo", being one outside of the rules that proved against my own exclusions!! [[But then again, since 1929 (let us see, that is 90 yeras times 20 entries per year (ave.) thusly of near 1,800 entries??, what 4 have broken the rule !!! DO YOU LIKE THOSE ODDS???

Thusly, these general rules are critea for picking against a WINNER ONLY on a percentage basis! And yet, don't cast out a play you like because of my logic!!! Again, I didn't have "Giacomo", but my brother did!!! My thoughts are only to aid and help guide the readers and bloggers on Steve's blog. Again, nothing I contribute will shatter the odds on Derby Day, and if you like a horse because of his name, or whatever, (my brother's girl friend liked a horse named "Lemon's Forever" and got a 99-1 winner!!!) and that or whatever is your critiea, I wish you the best! (and then I just have to hope that your pick is also one that I arrived at applying logic and my used tools, etc., so that we both are standing in the window line cashing! and hopefully we thulsy did arrive at the winner together however we got there! lol.)

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Ranagulzion — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 18:58:21 GMT

My last line should read "...money for jam/ marmalade for Quality Road backers"

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

Ranagulzion — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 18:17:30 GMT

ZARVONA: Enjoyed reading your posings. Good stuff. Regarding the Dosage Index, it will be interesting to watch the outcome of Win Willy's (DI 5.0) stretch run in the Derby although he may be compromised somewhat by the absence of The "Mousse" and Old Fashioned on the front end. If the fractions are slower than 1:11 for the first 6 furlongs it's gonna be "money for jam/ marmalade" for Quality Road.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

zarvona — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 16:13:03 GMT

Steve, I was greatly amused from your live blog at Mike asking you for 'odds help' in setting the odds for "IWR" and "QR". I hope you passed along to set them at 99-1 so I can get a better return on my plays come Derby Day.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Memorable Moments

zarvona — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 16:03:01 GMT

Dosage Index Chart:

“Beethoven”: 5.86

“City Style”: 5.67

“Mind That Bird”: 5.40

"Old Fashioned”: 5.22 high DI

“Win Willy”: 5.00

“Massone”: 4.71

“Mr. Fantasy”: 4.20

“Munnings”: 4.00

“Flat Out”: 4.00

“This Ones For Phil”: 4.00

“Musket Man”: 4.00

____________________________

“Desert Party”: 3.90

“Pioneerof the Nile”: 3.89 high DI

“Flying Private”: 3.67

“Checklist”: 3.62

“Uno Mas”: 3.57

____________________________