Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Nancy — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 21:30:39 GMT

Steve, Thanks for your analysis of some of the Derby horse at the Blood-Horse site. I think your mystery horse is General Quarters. This will be a tough race for all of them. May they all come home and come home sound!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Susan in Seattle — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 04:40:58 GMT

I was THRILLED to read Steve Haskins's comments today--FINALLY!!! We have our 'eyes' back at Churchill! Thank you, Steve--we've MISSED you!!!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Susan in Seattle — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 04:39:06 GMT

I am sorry that QR is out...I really liked him and thought with his superior speed, he had the best of chances to win the roses. But moving on--the Dubai horses, RR & DP are looking pretty hot--they have great works and solid foundations. FF did exactly what he needed to do today to prove he is a 'tour de force' in here, and--I agree with Ranagulzion--that FF is a true stalker and that he will just sit off of the front pace and just do what he has to do get the job done. He has the perfect running style in this--he won't be too far from the front and can make his move when need be. Larry Jones has had two 2nds in this, but the difference with FF is--he is actually bred to get the distance--watch out!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Slew.em.All — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 22:58:53 GMT

Ranagulzion: FF huh?..lol..I told u this guy can Boogie! Glad to see you seen the light.With Quartercrack Road out of the Derby,u can now focus on the 'real contenders,i.e...IWR/POTN & FF,with QR,Dunkirk sneaking in.There's your Derby play,box 'em!!

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

kevheels — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 22:16:38 GMT

Dray, we all should have figured that you'd go with the horse that QR beat. YOU need to get off the FLA Derby. Yes, it was a very key race, but to announce Dunkirk as the winner is a joke. I love your posts, but there are plenty of other horses in this field that merit consideration now that QR is out. I am very disappointed that QR is out as well, because I think he would have been the best horse in the race. Notice I didn't say winner, but the best horse in the race. The Derby is crazy. It's all about the trip, not necessarily who's best.. What did Monarchos and Giacomo do after their wins...pretty much nothing at all. Now I think about 5 or 6 horses have a legit shot at it...You also say this group is slow. Well if that's the case then what would you call last year (outside of Big Brown) there wasn't a horse who would be close to this year's group of Friesan Fire, Pioneer oftheNile, Dunkirk, and IWR. Take a look back even further. Two years ago was just as bad as last year's crop. I think this year's group is solid. Remember you have more horses running on synthetics nowadays than ever before, and even Andy Beyer himself admitted that they still have problems making figures for all the different syn. surfaces. I agree with you Dunkirk has a great shot, but the pace in front of him will dictate if he can win or not.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

draynay — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:59:12 GMT

Quality Road is out... hate to see it but now the Kentucky Derby is nothing more than a glorified allowance race. As much as this pains me I have to face facts and if you look at the PP's of all the horses in the race how can you think any horse will win except Dunkirk.

He is the horse of destiny...everything is breaking his way. Look at his improving Beyers and his workouts are nothing but bullets what more do you need? Yes... I know ... no races at 2 and he is by Unbridled Song... well you can try to get in the way of destiny or you can ride with it. I choose to ride with it. Any move forward by this horse makes him impossible to beat.

Dunkirk is your 2009 Derby Winner.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

marc w — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:05:02 GMT

Quality Road is out--does not make me happy although he was not my pick--As mentioned on a previous post the extra weight of being Dray's pick probably killed him.

Now to this:

ColdFacts Wrote: (Actually reading this I wonder if it really was him)

Chocolate Candy and POTN are slow horses. The splits for the first six furlongs in all the prep races that have won averaged 24,48,1:12. Those splits are two seconds slower than derby average. Even without the defections they had no chance of winning. Dunkirk will not hit the board so forget him and is overrated trainer.

Excuse me? I am certainly not a cheering section for Todd Pletcher--but overrated? Trainer of the year 3 times in recent history selected by people "in the business". Its bad enough another blogmaster says KD can't ride--where do you get these comments? Did you folks never study history? If you are going to go by the moniker "Cold Facts" you would think you would stick to them.

As to pitching POTN and CC two of my top four--no problems with you doing so as everyone is entitled to an opinion, but factions you mention have no bearing as you are "not" comparing apples to apples given the difference of poly and dirt. One thing everyone seems to forget that if a good horse wants to work in 34 he will even if he comes out of the sky in races. A good horse --is a fast horse. Just because a race shapes up one day differently than another--a good horse will adapt. These are nice horses.

If times made the race it would be easy.--I'll go to another sport---BECAUSE IT IS A GREAT ONE TO USE FOR AN EXAMPLE- for it is recent and makes the point brilliantly.

At Meadowlands Harness the other night a $30K went over a "second faster" and may I add fastest timing of "ANY" harness horse race this year by "over a second." IF HE RAN IN THE FEATURE THAT NIGHT HE WOULD HAVE RUN LAST! PERIOD! A horse with well over 2 million made won the feature---do you honestly believe because of times the 30K beats a horse that will probably end up in their sports Hall of Fame? So much for times as an exclusive handicapping tool.

Are you sure your name wasn't stolen? --These comments are way off--I might not agree with you but usually you are fairly intelligent with your posts. This one is weird you are lost in space here.

Final notes-as a horse racing fan I am sorry to see QR unable to run.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Ranagulzion — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:12:45 GMT

DRAYNAY: Beware of the Beyer dogmatics my friend because the jury is still out on those figures for synthetics. So far Pioneer Of The Nile's exercise gallops over Churchill Down's dirt suggest that he might transition superbly and even move up just like I Want Revenge did. Tell me, where would that put his Beyer figures, remembering that he has already turned back the challenges of IWR twice in California?

Rethink this Draynay. Also, i've read your postings on Friesan Fire which reflect one dimensional analysis. FF is a classic stalker, which means that he doesn't run fast splits unless the front runners are going real fast, therefore you cannot be adamant about him being slow when he is obviously motoring down the lane in all of his races. Chances are he is much better than you or even his connections think. This horse is bred to stay for ever and with the maestro trainer Larry Jones doing what is necessary to ensure a fresh horse for all the Triple crown races (seven weeks off between the Louisanna Derby and the Kentucky Derby) he is my pick to win the Derby, in the absence of Quality Road.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Karen in Texas — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:08:59 GMT

Gunbow---Thanks, I didn't mean to offend you either.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

GunBow — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 11:01:53 GMT

Karen in Texas:

I am not exactly sure what you are referring to as it conerns your opinions on fitness. I was responding to your post to me about how having experience around horses can gain one an added advantage. I was agreeing with that. I never referred to you as it concerns a horse's fitness, nor did I infer that you thought fitness was unimportant.

All I wrote about conditioning is that it is important and probably more so for the Derby than other races. I didn't say anything about whether you think conditioning is important or not.

After reading your last email to For Big Red, I now realize that you two have been going back and forth about conditioning. Knowing that now, I can see how you infered what you did about my earlier post. When I wrote, "For Big Red is correct...", I wasn't suggesting that you, Karen in Texas, are wrong. To be honest, I wasn't really aware of the details of the back and forth between you and For Big Red, having read over it all briefly. I wasn't taking sides. I was just referring to what For Big Red has been writing for a long time, and something everyone agrees on, that a horse's condition is important.

In short, my post was in response to your comments to me(which I agreed with, being close to horses and understanding them is a valuable tool I wish I had) and had absolutely nothing to do with whatever you and For Big Red were debating. I wasn't taking sides in the debate, and my comment about For Big Red being right was simply a reference to the importance of a horse's condition, and had absolutely nothing to do with what was going on between you two.

While I did address you at the beginning, because I wanted to specifically address your message to me, I was writing as if others would read it, and wanted to make sure the reader knew that I had been reading others' posts; since conditioning is something Big Red discusses alot, I wanted to reference him when I brought up conditioning. I never, never meant to imply that- For Big Red is correct.....and Karen in Texas is wrong.

To be honest, I wasnt aware of all the points of difference between you and Big Red, and wasn't thinking about it when I wrote that comment. It seems like you both agree that Quality Road's condition now is more important than what it was 4/10(seems self evident), that a horse's condition is a key variable, and that a quarter crack is serious and caution should guide Jimmy Jerkens' decision. In any event, I wasn't trying to take a side (when I wrote that post I wasn't aware which one of you had which side in the debate). I was responding to your post to me, and my "Big Red is correct" was in reference to conditioning as a whole(being important) and not a reference to the back and forth between the two of you. The last thing I wanted with that post was to offend anyone, and I am sorry for the misunderstanding.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

draynay — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 04:06:55 GMT

Coldfacts... let me clue you in ... all the horses this year are too slow. Did you know 13 contenders in the Derby have run 1 or 0 Beyer figures above 95 ? Did you know only 2 have gone over 100 twice ?

And only 1 has gone over 110 twice...Quality Road. Now when the horses that can't break 95 meet the horse that breaks 110 what do you think will happen ?

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Karen in Texas — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 03:24:27 GMT

Merrywriter---I think the lady you mention is Mrs. Genter, the owner of Unbridled.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

merrywriter — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:47:35 GMT

My two bits for winner:

General Quarters because he's the feel good, last chance story and they do win - what was the horse of the 90 yr/old lady who hardly realized her horse had won?

I Want Revenge because we know he has the guts to get thru traffic.

Joe Talamo on whoever because that kid is just plain lucky.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

For Big Red — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:00:56 GMT

TO WISTA: You're exactly right. It's a different racing world today. I mentioned Buckpasser's situation as an example of what the people involved with him elected to do vs. what we are seeing today.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

wista — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 19:32:03 GMT

Forr Big Red:

There are no Buckpassers in this Derby. You are referring to another world; one that included Damascus,Dr. Fager, and Buckpasser. They were bred by the Bancrofts,Tartan Stable, and the Phipps'. They were interested in "improving the breed" and even raced their superstars as 4 year-olds.

It is a different racing world today. They breed "speed to speed" and have produced exceedingly fragile thoroughbreds. Even with the aid of bute and lasix, horses today are not as tough, strong, or(dare I say it) as fast.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Karen in Texas — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 17:46:10 GMT

Big Red---I put the word "condition" in quotes because you had previously stated and emphasized that "condition" is your #1 handicapping factor. From a medical and practical standpoint, the second quarter crack alters and takes precedence over any "condition" that existed before. Of course 35 days is scant time to recover from his issues--that is the basis for my concern for his health. I have stated on both this and Jason's blog that without virtually 100% healing he should not run in the Derby. Whether or not he wins is irrelevant--that he risks further damage and/or injury if he runs at all is my point. I am not even slightly interested in his situation from a handicapping point of view.

There are people on this blog from many different geographical areas, lifestyles, professions, and educational backgrounds. I am not viewing racing in general, and Quality Road in particular, in the same manner as you. We can both be knowledgeable and yet not agree. Even if I wanted to continue this conversation ad infinitum, I do not have time today. I wish you luck with all your handicapping stats, but I have other tasks to accomplish right now. Thank you for your willingness to have a civil discussion.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Coldfacts — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 17:36:50 GMT

Householder,

Chocolate Candy and POTN are slow horses. The splits for the first six furlongs in all the prep races that have won averaged 24,48,1:12. Those splits are two seconds slowwr than derby average. Even without the defections they had no chance of winning. Dunkirk will not hit the board so forget him and is overrated trainer.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Matthew W — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 17:19:06 GMT

I continue to hear good things about Friesan Fire---I also hear Quality Road's quarter cracks are tiny compared to Big Brown's....which puzzles as I'm also hearing of the unofficial declaration of QR.....Steve have you heard these rumors, which is all they are/yet I heard it from a Derby trainer this morn....

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

For Big Red — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:10:14 GMT

TO KAREN IN TEXAS: You wrote, "QR's 'condition' as of April 23 is more important than anything that could have been observed in the April 10 video." First, I don't know why you put the term condition in quotes. No athlete, animal or human, can perform to their peak unless they are in prime physical condition. Period.

The Florida Derby appears to have been a very taxing race. Of the horses who ran in it and then came back to run again, none of them have done good. Going into the FLDerby, Theregoesjojo was one of the hot favorites. He regressed badly off that race. We know Dunkirk was so exhausted that even the TV announcer commented on it. Quality Road has had nothing but physical problems since that race.

The FLDerby was run just one month and four days before the Kentucky Derby will be run. These are youngsters and it is absolutely true that they can bounce back more quickly than older horses. It is also absolutely true that horses are not automatons. The 35 days between the FL and KY derbies is scant time to recover from the issues QR had had this month.

Can he recover in sufficient time to be fit enough to win the KD? Yes. Will he? Color me highly skeptical. Even if he wears the blanket of roses come May 2, I will not regret what I'm posting now.

It's obvious QR is a colt of considerable class and ability, with a potentially brilliant future. Yet he's only raced four times in his life, not much seasoning going into the KD, particularly when compounded by condition issues.

The great Buckpasser raced 11 times as a 2-year-old, winning nine. Yet he was kept out of all three 1966 Triple Crown races due to a single quarter crack. Later that year, he swept all before him on the way to Horse of the Year honors.

In my fantasy stable, I always take the long view of a horse's career, like Ogden Phipps and Eddie Neloy did with Buckpasser.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Karen in Texas — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 13:55:18 GMT

Gunbow---Of course fitness is important-where did I say it wasn't? I question the relevance of a video linked without correct/proper context. And, as I said earlier, interpretation of behaviors is highly subjective in all species.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

LDP — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 11:43:18 GMT

I got to see the replay of Mr. F in the withers and it was a pretty easy and impressive win. He also ran faster than Dray's beloved QR, when running a 1.34 mile. He also didn't seem very hard pressed to hold off TOFP, while the jockey in the latter stages of the race just let him gallop down to the wire. If he gets to the Preakness watch out.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

GunBow — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 06:06:32 GMT

Karen in Texas:

Yes, I'm sure being around horses allows one to look at the coat, legs, back, feet with a much keener eye, and that familiarity then aids in the assessment of a work or a race.

For the most party, people, like myself, do not need to have experience around horses to be able to tell whether a race was strong or not and be able to correctly compare the ability of different horses; handicapping does not necessitate growing up around horses.

However, I do think experience around horses can give someone an important added advantage, particularly when it comes to evaluating works, gallops, and walking. These people are going to be able to catch something that others, like myself, may miss.

Where I have improved most over the years is being able to analyze a horse's appearance in the paddock/walking ring and in the post parade/warmup. I went to the track one day and, for fun, wagered small amounts based totally on the horses' physical appearances. Somewhat surprisingly, I ended up doing fairly well. However, all I really can do is look at a horse's coat, its eyes and ears (to see if it is calm or agitated), and its mid-section (as a reflection of condition, if it is carrying too much or too little weight). Typically, I look for a horse that has a shiny and dappled coat, an inquisitive stature with the horse on it's toes and with it's ears pricked taking in it's surrounding while remaining calm, and a horse that carries it's flesh well. In terms of weight, I remember Silver Charm and Best Pal getting extremely thick at the tail end of their careers, with both Baffert(Silver Charm) and Dick Mandela(had Best Pal towards the end) commenting on how difficult it was to keep the weight off.

For the most part, I have become good at spotting the more obvious of physical characteristics. What I don't have is the ability to identify a horse that is ever so slightly off. Some are able to see a tendon bow from miles away or some other ailment that I completely miss.

For Big Red is so correct about the importance of a horse's conditioning/sharpness. If anything, fitness might be even more important in the Derby than any other race. The Derby is just so competitive, with so many good horses and trainers, horses managed by these trainers with this one race ultimately in mind. Any and every advantage becomes significant. This is why there will be so much coverage on each horse's workouts and gallops, and why Mr. Haskin will be in Louisville over the next week. I wish I could look at video of the works and be able to draw conclusions beyond just the time; that is why I will need to read the upcoming reports from Steve, other writers, as well as some of you, my compatriots on this blog.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Karen2 — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 00:16:30 GMT

For Big Red: I personally appreciate your posts and the research you do. Thank you.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Householder — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 20:49:59 GMT

QR's quarter cracks are unfortunate. The continued defection of speed (QR, Pamp) could cost some other legit continders any chance of winning. This may be strike three against Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, or POTN. Could be the year of the 35,000 superfecta.

re: Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics

Karen in Texas — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 20:23:03 GMT

Big Red---I want to write a couple of sentences and then let this particular line of conversation end. Yes, this board format makes exchanges somewhat difficult. QR's "condition" as of April 23 is more important than anything that could have been observed in the April 10 video. His health and racing longevity are now at stake. I care about the horse, not about the betting public. Literate people can draw their own conclusions from reading DRF, Brisnet, Equibase, etc.