Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 01 May 2013 23:25:15 GMT

Only don't take your umbrella to Churchill Downs. The entrance guards with confiscate it and toss it in a dumpster. Happened to me at the 2000 BC.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Greg R — Wed, 01 May 2013 03:09:08 GMT

Please carry your umbrella with you at all times this week. Thank you!

Although, actually, if so many of the main contenders would be just as happy in the slop, maybe the Derby wouldn't turn out much differently, mud or not.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

greyghost — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 21:37:37 GMT

If Revolutionary is slop positive then Java's War must be inclined that way as well. War Pass' juvenile BC win in the driving rain was amazing.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

mz — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 18:23:19 GMT

Sorry, Rusty: I was just happy they actually had something not unpositive about horse racing.

What worry do I have because of Rosie?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Sail On — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 18:18:20 GMT

LOL Now a race predicted to be a slow motion of past Derby's will be a slog in the park. Yikes. There are no speed horses running this year, perhaps due to the point system.

Horses who do not like slop in their faces better get to the front pronto, where they will find Verrazano and the flash in the pan speedsters.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 18:10:40 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

On the flip-side, I suspect it can exaggerate a good horse's performance, especially in whipping a small field. Look at the higher Beyers for Vyjack and (I think) Revolutionary.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

marapace — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 17:52:58 GMT

I havent been this excited about the Derby since 2006. Orb has been and continues to be my #1. Work out was fantastic. The interview with Shug certainly has me pumped especially when he said he has never be this excited about a horse in the Derby. ORB has everything I look for in a pedigree and many duplication's of several I particularly want in my Derby horse such as Buckpasser and Swaps. Of course being a direct relation to Ruffian thru 3/4 sis Laughter doesnt hurt. To say the Phipps family WAY overdue is an understatement, as well as Shug. Orb is bred for the classics. Additionally, unlike many, as an old time family bred, should he win a number of the classics...not gonna say so as not to jinx...he would most likely continue racing through the year where many others would be retired immediately for stud career. Love the pics you have posted and added info on off track breeding just gives tons more confidence. Revolutionary remains my #2. While weather still saying 50% chance rain, we are in KY and what they say and what actually happens not uncommon for it to be vastly different lol. As long as we dont get an extended heavy hard rain will be okay. Rain prior to works on sun and track was very fast. The horses will like the cooler temps. Now if I could only be as confident about my Oaks pick :P, though my sentimental long shots are the 2 Bull gray girls Silsita and Flashy Gray..never know, gave me Giacamo. Have a great day Steve and TY for all you do for us!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 17:12:24 GMT

Both of Easy Goer's failures in the Churchill goo came following lifetime best efforts. Had he been in the same position of his form cycle going into the BCJ as he was for the Champagne, and in the same position in his form cycle for the Derby as he was for the Wood, I believe the results would have been different.

Off track performance is in general more a reflection of the horse's overall condition that it is a preference of dislike of the surface. When one is feeling like King Kong, there are no excuses. When one is feeling like sleeping in the barn, slop makes it far easier to 'chuck it' or perform below par.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:02:36 GMT

mz,

Steve Haskins' picks for mud pedigree are the least of your problems. Seen 60 Minutes?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

mz — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 14:55:35 GMT

Jeeze Louise: now Mylute won't be at 60 - 1 or over at post time. There goes one of my dream bets!

Good analysis, Steve.

I gotta say, tho, that the Oaks seems more of a horse race to me this year.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Closer — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 12:56:55 GMT

I always found horses with speed had a big advantage in the slop--it's hard enough for come from behind horses to weave their way through traffic in a 20 horse field,let alone doing it with mud slung in their face through the 1 1/4 mile trip.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Cassandra.Says — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 06:39:18 GMT

Revolutionary maiden win, Aqueduct inner, mile, track 'good':

Broke smartly, tracked pace 3-wide, took over at will, beat Transparent x 8 1/2, 20 lengths ahead of 3rd horse.

Triple Beyer.

Oh, yeah, wasn't interfered with.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

ThoroGreats — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 05:46:40 GMT

Easy Goer, out of a champion Buckpasser mare Relaxing, hated the specific type of mud at Churchill. Or was it more due to his problematic, puffy ankles as to why he spun his wheels over it? Though he did finish close 2nd's in his 2 races in it and won 2 races in mud elsewhere(Woodward,etc). Some horses hate that Churchill track for whatever reasons, like Easy Goer, Skip Away, Holy Bull, Go For Wand,etc. As you have said, "Churchill and the Derby seems to make mortals out of gods."

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Vistoso — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 04:35:04 GMT

So Steve, is the the Tomlinson WET Ratings all wrong?? You said Black Onyx looks good and he's around 15th in Tomlinson, Revolutionary romped with a 102 Beyer at a mile on WET and with a Tomlinson of (415) 3rd highest, he's not even in your top 3, so what gives. Are they wrong or are you??

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

joseph alva — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 04:32:27 GMT

Very helpful info, thanks Steve. I'll arrive in Louisville on Wednesday and look forward to a few days extra days of dry racing. I'll be praying that your umbrella be obsolete on Saturday!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Vistoso — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 04:25:55 GMT

Steve,

I looked and researched Tomlinson's WET rating for each Horse and Will Take Charge was 4th with (413) in the ratings and he was terrible when he raced over a wet track...so what can you say about that??

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

GJU — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:29:58 GMT

Thanks for this article, Steve. Got my picks picked based on your information if it should rain. Great pictures too.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Kevin — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 23:59:52 GMT

Other than will take charge, any that you'd move down or absolutely not play because of the mud?

Normandy Invasion was my dry track horse. Thoughts on him?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

nickie — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 23:29:16 GMT

ok Steve, I like your "mudder list", but imo Javas War is an include[Blushing Groom has always been kind to me on the off]

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

iceman92 — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 23:19:16 GMT

great info. steve-i may have to add to my growing list-falling sky because of mr. leader(hail to reason/jolie deja and it's my lucky day(crafty prospector/mr.prospector. also i agree palace malice is just loaded with pedigree for this weekends derby.just hope he didn't tucker himself out getting here. thanks for the help!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 21:53:08 GMT

Mother Nature- I believe that it's going to rain cats and dogs on Saturday and there is nothing you can do about it.

Steve- Sleep with your umbrella, dance with it, turn it upside down and eat dinner off of it. Whatever it takes.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 20:39:45 GMT

Who's actually run in the slop? All the 50 and 100-point races were on dry tracks. The only ones I can think of are Vyjack, Itsmyluckyday and WTC. I didn't like Vyjack and I still won't bet him. I liked Itsmyluckyday and now the odds are spoiled.

I already wanted to take several horses likely to be up front with a clean trip (with the exception of Orb), more so if it's sloppy. I'm glad to hear about the pedigree influences of Palace Malice and Orb, my top two. I hope for Palace Malice to be focused by the blinkers and exhilarated by the mud.

I think a lot of bettors are going to play the wet track form to the exclusion of other factors and it will cause some logical horses to get crazy odds. And who knows? Maybe a horse like Goldencents, from sunny Southern California, will love a wet track? He loved Delmar; that's close to a lot of water. And Verrazano is the name of a bridge named after a sailor.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: A Mud-dled Derby?

Sail On — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 19:44:21 GMT

Bring on the mudders! Love the photos.