Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Old Old Cat — Wed, 08 May 2013 17:55:59 GMT

I told my lunchtime buddies that the Preakness field would be 8 to 12 horses or maybe more this year. Everybody had an excuse for not winning the derby: insane pace, being checked, too much mud, etc. They all will be wanting another shot at orb. I beleive the results were totally skewed by the 1:09 for six which destroyed the first four, gave the next group the incentive to quicken too early, leaving the plodders room to pick up the pieces and blow by the others who were running backwards.

Orb was legitimate for first.

Any other horse's finish was determined by where they were early, and their trip, more than any other factor.

Congratulations to the winning bettors, but if that derby had been run a hundred times, that finish would happen only ONCE.

I hope I don't sound like a sore loser, (but I am: Orb Verzano Vijack Oxbow trifecta)

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

josh — Tue, 07 May 2013 11:58:05 GMT

Thanks Jean! I did have a good amount of money on Golden Soul for Place/Show. But didn't have him in my Exacta or Trifecta, which I am absolutely kicking myself now because if I would have put him in those, I would have landed a sweet payout because I had Orb and Revolutionary in my Trifecta.

Onward to the Preakness! Go Orb!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

trackjack — Tue, 07 May 2013 03:27:18 GMT

Talk about the Kentucky Derby flattering the Louisiana Derby this year:

Golden Soul: 4th in LD, 2nd in KD by 2 1/2 to Orb, 1 length ahead of:

Revolutionary: 1st in LD, 3rd in KD by a head over 4th place Normandy Invasion; a head over:

Mylute: 5th in KD, 3 1/2 lengths and 2 heads behind Orb, 2nd in LD by 3 to:

Departing: dominant winner of the Illinois Derby headed to the Preakness.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

robinm — Mon, 06 May 2013 23:31:43 GMT

Congrats to Orb, Shug and the Phipps and Janney families. Despite my great regard for Shug, Orb wasn't my first choice; that went to Verrazano as I was hoping to see a truly great one and I thought V was the only colt who could be that horse. When the track came up sloppy, I felt Verrazano would be compromised by the track conditions as big, heavy horses tend not to run well on an off track. The unexpectedly fast early fractions did the rest. And then came Orb. Much, much the best as the 2nd and 3rd place colts had ground-saving rail rides. Am I surprised my second choice won? Not at all. Orb is wonderfully well-bred and has the best of connections. I think the Preakness may be the toughest of the TC races for Orb as horses generally don't come from too far off the pace and win the Preakness. If he wins at Pimlico, I think Orb has as good a chance as any recent horse who has captured the first two legs, to be our next TC winner. He has the pedigree and he has the trainer. Maybe Orb is the great one I was hoping to find in Verrazano.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

ksweatman9 — Mon, 06 May 2013 20:20:28 GMT

First off, it was sad to hear about Nehro, real shame. I was tickled that Golden Soul finished with 17 horses behind him. That is so indicative of the sport. This is the Derby, count no horse out who has a heartbeat. Now, about that Orb, I didn't put a penny on him because in my heart I wanted him to be "THE ONE", the special one, and I didn't want to jinx him. Oh, did that work well. No cash, but overwhelming excitement and hope in my heart, better than money. Cool as a cucumber and as talented as they get, he is no doubt the only pony capable of a triple crown sweep. I agree with Lucas when he said the Preakness will be the hurdle for Orb, the Belmont, a cake walk. Ofcoarse he worded it a bit differently. I can't remember ever thinking that, but I do this year. If Orb can pull off the Preakness and stay sound, I think we can nail it, the 13th triple crown winner. Oh Lord, here we go again! Maybe Golden Soul should've won the derby so I could get some sleep during the next 5 weeks. Golden Soul, triple? Hey, this IS horse racing!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

mz — Mon, 06 May 2013 20:12:43 GMT

Hey, Jean/Chicago: Golden Soul was one of my outofthepark longshot bets (not 60-1 but as close as it came in this Derby) together with Charming Kitten and Mylute (because Black Onyx was scratched).

And for a few seconds there, when it looked to me like Orb had come across Golden Soul's line, I even dreamed a bigger payoff.

Anyways, looks like I should keep throwing everything out every year and just bet sires I like (Perfect Soul, Leroidesanimaux, etc.)

Yay! for Saddlers Wells.

On to the Belmont.

p.s. Great to see Wise Dan motoring along. Looking forward to some safe, winning trips for Jackson Bend. Go! fillies.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Linda in Texas — Sun, 05 May 2013 21:37:56 GMT

Need to get a couple of things off my mind. One not pleasant the other one just the opposite.

Nehro - what a sad loss to lose such a young horse and wonderful horse. I had wondered where he was, had saved a couple of photos of him on Bloodhorse.com but he was in Training with Asmussen. Alive on April 30, gone on April 30. So fast they leave with the dreaded disease named Colic. So deep sadness in the Zayat household and for his fans. I guess the family kept the news quiet to not spoil everyone's Derby Fever.He was at Churchill so i hope he had some visitors. Rest in Peace Nehro. Second in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

And to Brilliant Orb, i owe an apology for mimicking your name Orb. Shame on me, had i known your sire was Malibu Moon and everyone knows your grand sire, i wouldn't have said a word.

Cannot imagine a 1,200 to 1,500 pound horse having to put 1 hoof, never mind 4,in that slop at full speed for so long and having the strength to pull each one out and still come from behind the pack gathering speed enough to win. Now that was awesome and to me defines the word 'Stamina' about which so many speak when considering their ability to run X number of furlongs, etc.

And to the Janney and Phipps's Families who happen to comprise two of the premier racing families in the United States for the last 100 years. Congratulations. And to Mr. McGaughey a Lexington native your interview brought tears to my eyes for the obvious deep appreciation you showed for being the trainer of the first Derby Winner for the owners, Janney and Phipps. How nice for you to win. And to Joel Rosario for your third exemplary win, and a few in between smaller ones to boot. Excellent job with Orb. Now for your next 2 encores, take him on to Maryland and then to Elmont, NY for the last leg of The Triple Crown at The Belmont where my first favorite of all time filly Ruffian will be keeping watch over the Janney's and Phipp's and especially Orb as he hopefully tries for The Triple Crown.

Thanks Steve for all of your articles, photos and tidbits from Churchill. Though my horse Itsmyluckyday did not win, i believe they all came home safely, and now the accolades go to ORB.

He won it fair and square.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Tiz Herself — Sun, 05 May 2013 04:23:24 GMT

And big weekend for A.P. Indy whose sons sired both the Oaks Winner (Majestic Warrior - Princess of Sylmar) and of course Malibu Moon - Orb for the Kentucky Derby. Congratulations to all of their connections!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

trackjack — Sun, 05 May 2013 02:47:57 GMT

"Cold hearted Orb

That rules the night

Removes the colors

From our sight

Red is gray and yellow white

But we decide which is right

And which is an illusion."

Moody Blues; 'Nights in White Satin'

Orb left no illusion as to why he was the best win pick in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. The White Satin and Cherry Janney silks, with some mud splattered colors removed from sight, powered down the stretch and across the finish line like a well bred AP Indy line Classic bred colt should, at 5-1 to boot. Congrats to Shug, his team, Joel, the Janney's and Phipps Stable.

Golden Soul knocked me out of my ex and tri boxes. Congrats to anyone who hit that. The win on Orb helped save the day.

Now on to Baltimore. This colt must be taken as a serious Triple Crown threat. Hope all goes well for him and the team and that Orb stays healthy.

Anxious for your comments Steve, your thoughts on Orb's Triple Crown chances?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Age of Reason — Sun, 05 May 2013 02:26:32 GMT

Looks like it's finally time for serious handicappers to ditch those late-development A.P. Indy line runners--why, the best those poor nags could do was take 3 of the top 4 slots in the Derby. And don't get me started on all the fine contenders whose chances were horribly compromised by the incredibly sluggish pace, thanks to that darned, new points system! ;)

Live and learn, comrades.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Jean in Chicago — Sun, 05 May 2013 01:20:39 GMT

congrats, Josh! I think you're the only one who ever mentioned Golden Soul. Hope you had a few bucks on him. Looking him up after the race, he's got a really nice pedigree and I'm glad to see he's another home bred.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

pedmat — Sun, 05 May 2013 01:11:12 GMT

The Speed/Stamina index for Orb is the lowest of any in the Derby at 0.67, the next is Golden Soul at 0.69, then 0.75 for Revolutionary. They were 1-2-3 in the Kentucky Derby.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Tiz Herself — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:51:36 GMT

Big Red was felt on the Derby this year. Orb, being a son of Malibu Moon, A.P. Indy whose broodmare sire was Secretariat.

Runner up Golden Soul sired by Perfect Soul, whose broodmare sire was Secretariat and Revolutionary, as A.P. Indy is his broodmare sire (Runup the Colors). Long live Big Red!

Congratulations to Shug and his connections - Orb is clearly a horse of a lifetime come rain come shine and I cannot wait to witness whether he is the one we have been waiting for to end the Triple Crown doubt. If anyone can get him there it's Shug.

And of course Mr. Prospector was felt as well through Orb as the broodmare sire of Malibu Moon and through Unbridled (sire of Lady Liberty)

Golden Soul, runner up, Mr. Prospector is the broodmare sire. And through Revolutionary as Mr. Prospector was broodmare sire to War Pass.

It looked like M Smith was trying the same race to run with Palace Malace as he had last year with Bodemeister?

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

JoyJackson21 — Sat, 04 May 2013 21:46:01 GMT

Thanks for all of your insignts, Steve. You're fab! I made my final picks this morning & I listed them online for my friends to reference. I hope I have as much good luck in the 2013 Kentucky Derby as I did in the 2012 Kentucky Derby! I'm keeping my fingers crossed. - LOL.

Good luck, Steve, and wishing you the best with your Kentucky Derby singled & exotic wagers. Go get 'em, Steve!

Good luck to everyone on this website with their 2013 Kentucky Derby wagers, too. And good luck to all of the mighty, talented horses racing in today's Kentucky Derby. May all of the fabulous participants in the 2013 Kentucky Derby return from this race happy, healthy and sound!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

El Kabong — Sat, 04 May 2013 19:19:05 GMT

Steve,

I can't thank you and the Bloodhorse staff enough for making this event last 4 months instead of 2 exhilarating minutes. Enjoy yourself today and thanks for providing the great forum. Good luck today, as we all know, it's better to be lucky than good on this day.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

newsnag — Sat, 04 May 2013 16:33:12 GMT

So much for scientific picks. Orb, because he's got Maryland connections and a great owner; Normandy Invasion because my father was on the beach at day one, Verrazano because I love the bridge, having sailed under it and driven over it, and Revolutionary because it's that kind of time. No science at all, just emotion.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

KG1 — Sat, 04 May 2013 16:10:14 GMT

Hi Steve,

Thanks for the insight, color and photos this week.

Java's War, there is something that really draws me to this little guy.

Orb, the colt has done nothing wrong and your comments this week just put the icing on the cake. Besides I can't help but to pull for the Shug/Janey/Phipps trio.

Baggage and all, Vyjack. The horse is a beast and he moves up if it's soupy.

Will Take Charge, if anyone can get a horse around Churchill on works alone...Lucas can. He also has a bit of that In Reality/Dr Fager breeding. Lastly...Jon Cort a journeyman who has long history at this track...how sweet it would be.

I'll also play with Itsmyluckyday and Normandy Invasion in the exotics.

May they all get around safe.

Good luck everyone.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

predict — Sat, 04 May 2013 15:42:09 GMT

Is the day really here? Yahooo!

Looks like Revolutionary is the early favorite, and Orb is 7-1, this will change, most likely.

I can't believe how difficult this year is, I have never found it so hard to like a few horses.

I will play:

Oxbow- WPS

Oxbow,Mylute,Frac Daddy,Palace Malice- EX BOX, Tri BOX, and SPF BOX

Longshot: Lines of Battle WPS

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Love 'em all — Sat, 04 May 2013 14:54:42 GMT

Have fun and enjoy, folks! It's a horse race!

My picks ... just 'cause I like 'em:

Palace Malice

Oxbow

Vyjack

Orb

Golden Soul

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

willie1 — Sat, 04 May 2013 13:40:35 GMT

My picks are

Varrazano

Revolutionary

Orb

MyLute

It's my Lucky day

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 04 May 2013 13:32:01 GMT

Last year horse-to-horse comparisons helped me find the top horses, even if I didn't bet intelligently. So I tried it again this year. The results are:

This year, the top preps were the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby. That gives me Revo, Orb, IMLD, and Mylute as top contenders. Not sure about the second pair at the distance, but the data says what it says. Siete de Oro's drubbing at Hawthorne downgrades Vyjak and by extension, all the Wood runners. Too bad Departing (third in the La Derby) didn't have the points to make the field (he should have, CD).

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Shelby's Best Pal — Sat, 04 May 2013 13:17:28 GMT

Steve, I have enjoyed your columns and Derby Dozen very much. Thank you for sharing your insight, experience, talent, and humor. As for the Derby horses, I have been most impressed with Orb (like everyone else) but last night I began to see Vyjack as the forgotten horse after looking at his pp's. He has done nothing wrong so I will include him. Thanks again. Have a lovely day.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Old Timer — Sat, 04 May 2013 12:59:12 GMT

Nice column, as always, Steve. You have really covered the bases.

Verrazano at 11-1? As you had noted previously, he really gets no respect. I guess the bettors cannot get past his Daddy's sprint record. That and the Apollo curse. Still to get an undefeated horse at those odds is amazing.

I like Will Take Charge for his pedigree and his odds also look attractive. Only thing is that Wayne has not exactly brought home many winners of late. Still, the grand old trainer may have one more trick up his sleeve.

It seems like over the past decade all the rules have been tossed aside.

Smarty Jones sired by a turf sprinter. Animal Kingdom; Big Brown; Barbaro; all had certain marks against them (according to the conventional wisdom) but it didn't matter.

I'd box Rev; Palace; WTC; Orb and Golden. The great thing about the Derby is that you can box even 5 horses and if you hit, a nice profit is almost assured.

Good luck to all.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Stones — Sat, 04 May 2013 12:51:56 GMT

Steve, I too was stunned at the early wagering, mainly with Verrazano at 11-1. I may have to re-think my wagering strategy with those juicy odds, because this horse could be a monster.

The other one that stunned me was Frac Daddy at 15-1. Really??? Don't get me wrong, with my Pool 1 wager on him, I'd love to see him win, but just what is prompting almost 3 times as much money on him than Vyjack? The 20 post can be overcome by a horse with his tactical speed.

I don't worry much about the rain, as Churchill does a good job with the hour they have before the race...unless its a downpour at post time, and then I'll load up on the early speed: Goldencents, Verrazano and Oxbow.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Time for the Pick Sicks

Icaruskid76 — Sat, 04 May 2013 12:41:10 GMT

I can't go against Itsmyluckyday at this point. He had two huge speed figures and really didn't need to win the FL Derby. Second was enough. If he had, I am sure he would be under 4-1 now. Same goes for Vyjack. I will forgive the Wood and the infection, and the outside posts have been on fire in the Derby. Rudy will have him ready. He was undefeated and put a solid effort in despite the infection. Orb reminds me of Barbaro a lot. You just can't leave him out. He can stalk or come from out of it. 12-1, 43-1 and 5-1 could prove to be a nice tri! Throwing Overanalyze, Revolutionary and Mylute (had the lead in the LA Derby in deep stretch + gets Rosie back and a 10 length win previously with her aboard) to complete the super!

Good luck, what a great Derby season!!