Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Soldier Course — Thu, 30 May 2013 18:56:00 GMT

El Kabong:

Apparently Lukas doesn't care about being tactful because his comment after the Preakness was, "I get paid to spoil dreams." That was a coarse and ungracious remark under the circumstances. Many fans were very disappointed at that moment, not only because Orb lost but also because the Triple Crown dream was lost.

Maybe I'm missing something here and Lukas's remark is akin to saying "break a leg" in the theater world, but I don't think so. I've been following racing closely for the last eleven years, and that comment struck me as pure arrogance.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

El Kabong — Sat, 25 May 2013 23:17:12 GMT

Steve,

Gary Stevens said today that he positioned Oxbow in the 4 lane from the start for a reason. He did not want anything to do with the rail. Too Sandy? Also, that the Monday work before the Preakness was not about time and he and Wayne both knew they were sitting on a card(Win/Place) after that work and it was all they could do to not say a thing with all the Orb buzz. And how can you tactfully say, "hell I think we're in a good position to stomp on any TC aspirations."

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Fran Loszynski — Sat, 25 May 2013 22:08:32 GMT

I like the comment Laurie Krause made in the article about Oxbow - would like to take her back to the words about Seabiscuit Gary's movie Toby Maguire as Red Pollard said "he be little but he is fierce!" Little bit of irony there. Steve this was such a great article you always do people justice. And you always give us memories between the lines.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Fran Loszynski — Sat, 25 May 2013 14:00:28 GMT

Great pics Steve. Love the pic of the kids with Mylute and Gary with Mr. Lukas. The greats reign supreme. I don,t believe in superstition so going to write this the Triple Crown awaits Tim Ritchey and A fleet Alex,s son

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 25 May 2013 13:36:27 GMT

Alex'sBigFan

Thank you very much !!!!! And yes, Afleet Alex was one of the greatest of alltime. I also would like to see Ritchey back in the TC picture. He sure did a good job with Alex.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Mary — Sat, 25 May 2013 02:51:18 GMT

Please no one talk about Birdcatcher; what a horrific death.

Papillon, I agree with all that you have said, very simple. I would like to say more, but I am so tired now. I work for the Louisiana legislature, and this session has taken a toll on my ability to think about anything other than health care reform.

Next week, it will all be over.

I'm going to stay with Revolutionary; the horse has the pedigree to win the Belmont. More research is needed. I have always liked Govenor Charlie, but I doubt he will go.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Mary — Sat, 25 May 2013 01:31:41 GMT

Plod boy, the next super horse will be here in less than 50 weeks, explain please.

Revolutionary in the Belmont, if the decision is made to run him. Hopefully, JV will have the mount. I would really like to see Govenor Charlie, but I don't think that will happen.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Soldier Course — Fri, 24 May 2013 20:27:23 GMT

Alex'sBigFan:

I don't think Orb would have lost anything if JR had gotten him off the rail immediately after the break. I think he would have won the Preakness.

Watch the replay and check the number of seconds that roll by before JR does anything with Orb. I filed all my fingernails during that interval.

Rooster's a lucky fellow. He overheard Shug telling JR how to run Orb from the #1 hole. Steve's tried to get the scoop, but Rooster's got Disney in the queue.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

slee — Fri, 24 May 2013 15:14:11 GMT

Thanks Cassandra.

You gotta love the Jockey Club's thinking - there are no roans in TBs, but they''ll take the term and use it in their own way!

AND they don't acknowledge sabinos, so extraordinary coloring like Candy Spots (1960) and the even wilder coloring of Puchilingui (1984) and his son Sato (1996) will be listed as chestnut, bay and palomino, respectively.

But it's interesting to see how Birdcatcher, through his descendants Bend Or, The Tetrarch, Ky. Colonel, etc., show up in their far far descendants with a splash of color here and there.

It's all part of the game, and "a good horse is never a bad color."

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Cassandra.Says — Fri, 24 May 2013 03:49:34 GMT

SLEE:

There's some white "ticking" in the breed, a recessive trait tracing to Birdcatcher (1833).

Roans have dark heads and all their white is present at birth. There are no roan TBs, so, in its wisdom, the Jockey Club has appropriated the word for red horses that gray, and uses gray for dark horses that gray. It also used it for whites with a spot of their pigment genes, until Ky. Colonel (1946), a chestnut with high whites and a belly spot, began to sire too many sabino whites that were widely publicized.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Cassandra.Says — Fri, 24 May 2013 03:13:14 GMT

DEACON et al.

There are thousands FEWER thoroughbreds born every year.

FEWER and FEWER. Y'all hear? (I've said this before.) In 1985, '86 and '87 there were more than 50,000. The figures have declined steadily to 22,500 (est.) in 2013.

That's fewer than HALF.

Thoroughbred racing is circling the bowl. The urban/suburban land for tracks, training centers and farms is needed for a higher and better use: strip malls and housing 'estates.' Governments are looking covetously at the income from slots that slowed the decline for a while.

A massive culling is going on. It is based a great deal on size. THAT is why your forced-up, overgrown, herring-gutted colts can't stand training. Have you noticed the fillies don't seem so troubled, and there are a lot of good older mares still going strong. They're not as big as their brothers.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 24 May 2013 01:13:41 GMT

Dr. D,

Love the "Orb-eo cookies!" Very clever and funny. Who would have thought the icing was flying, only you!!!

I heard that if Johnny V and Joel Rosario duke it out over who is riding Orb in the Belmont that Shug will give a leg up to the Rooster to ride Orb.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 24 May 2013 01:06:07 GMT

Soldier Course,

Maybe Zen was more versatile, maybe that is the difference between great and good, the great being Zen the champion who got herself out of the adversity. Who knows but it's a good comparison you made. Do you think that if Rosario had taken him outside early he would have lost ground and too much time? One poster said in the 10 Questions article next, that it would have been foolish for Rosario to make that move early but I am not so sure. I do agree though a great champion should overcome some adversity. Maybe Zen was a multi-dimensional late closer and Orb is a one-dimensional late closer and only comfortable outside, I don't know what the answer is. Only Shug and the rooster know for sure!

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Racingfan — Thu, 23 May 2013 19:47:46 GMT

Robinm, I too am happy that two year olds are started later and campaigned lighter now days. And I am in favor of the old fashioned "winter break". I just think the trainers of the top echelon of horses have gone too far the other way and the detrimental effects of that is showing up in the injury rates and the lack of a triple crown winner.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

El Kabong — Thu, 23 May 2013 19:37:24 GMT

Steve,

Oxbow is beach bum. That bodes well on Big Sandy if the nickname still serves up. I have a feeling we're in for a real dog fight in Elmont, and hopefully some large pools filled with grudge bets from those unwilling to believe they were wrong about their derby pick. I'm glad Java is moving to grass.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Soldier Course — Thu, 23 May 2013 19:07:51 GMT

Alex'sBigFan:

Your mentioning Orb and Zenyatta in the same breath sparked something in my mind. Compare the videos of Zenyatta's 2009 BC Classic with Orb's Preakness, in particular their respective positions around the far turn and into the top of the stretch. See any similarities in how they were boxed in? But no similarities in how they handled it. "Looked impossible", said Trevor Denman about Zenyatta's win.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

slee — Thu, 23 May 2013 17:16:14 GMT

I love figuring out the "real" color of horses.

The Jockey Club says that a true gray/roan foal must have 1 gray/roan parent.

www.jockeyclub.com/registry.asp

Oxbow's sire, Awesome Again, is a dark bay. His first few generations are brown, bay and chestnut, and it's 5 generations before any grays show up (Native Dancer [twice] and Mumtaz Behum). He has a little white on his forehead, but from the images I've seen, no white feet.

Oxbow's dam, Tizamazing, is a dark bay or brown, but there are grays all over her sire's side. She has a big blaze and her front feet are white.

So if Oxbow is a gray or roan, which in many lighting conditions he appears to be, some gene snuck in there that didn't read the Jockey Club rules!

Sort of like Candy Spots, who won the 1963 Preakness, and who was registered as a chestnut, but would have been, in many breed registries, listed as a sabino.

Time will tell with Oxbow - we'll see if he "grays out" in a few years.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 23 May 2013 16:59:49 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Here's some objective data that will provide readers (and potential subscribers to your "handicapping service") some anecdotal but nevertheless useful context.

By your methodology you "downgraded" (i.e., warned bettors off of) three of the top five Derby finishers: Revolutionary, Golden Soul and Mylute. Meanwhile, "upgrades" were Normandy Invasion, Palace Malice and...Vyjack. Objectively unknown are what you actually bet personally.

Heck, it's one race, so being completely wrong is forgiveable. What's less so is coming back after the race to lecture everyone about the lessons to be drawn from it.

And here's additional objective data: all of the first five finishers in the Derby came off the pace and four of those came far off the pace. The splits of the race, too, are objective and freely available data. Objectively, pretty much any handicapper could figure Orb benefited, while Oxbow suffered, from an objectively scalding pace. It's hard to convey how insulting it is to have you come on here, after mishandicapping the race (and flubbing the Preakness, where your sole comment about Oxbow was: "too many races"), and treat that objective data like it's your propietary information. It truly is disrespectful, particularly when the very author of this blog is making the same obvious points about pace.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Steve Haskin — Thu, 23 May 2013 14:30:44 GMT

JuWong, thanks, but Oxbow could never take me to the poor house. I'm already there :)

Terri V, thanks so much, it was very nice meeting you. I appreciate the kind words.

El Kabong, they did add a lot of sand to the track, and Mr. Lukas was not too happy about it, because he said the track was perfect on Tuesday. But as it turned out, the track was just right for Oxbow :)

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 23 May 2013 14:17:30 GMT

Papillon -

I stand corrected.

The objectivity of the Flow figure comes from the fact that we use only the raw fractional times found in any chart. The fact that we assign a figure to a race and not to the horses in the race means that there are no subjective, and often flawed, beaten lengths to time conversions.

The subjectivity exists in the track and distance specific models that were derived by a well renowned statistician who happens to be a second generation horseplayer. Of course, as you point out, despite the statistical soundness of the work, any horseplayer could choose to question the validity and usefulness of such models.

Our work has been under peer review by handicappers for more than five years. The first and easily the most important review came in the form of a highly respected, published author of t'bred handicapping back in January of 2009. His willingness to give us credit via two feature articles in a national publication followed an eight month 'trial'. While his seal of approval helped to put us on the map, the quality and usefulness of the figures to serious handicappers has been responsible for four straight years of growth.

Best of racing luck.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 23 May 2013 12:50:00 GMT

Linda in Texas

Thank you. I'm happy to give you, who has so much heart, a little fun to break up the sadness of the Oklahoma tragedy. Loved hearing about the ranches too.

Pas

Thank you very much. Thanks for bringing up the very interesting subject. Sometimes it takes people awhile to respond, and I'm glad you were persistant as you should have been for such a strange and largely unnoticed event. Keep posting, your posts are great.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

AngelaInAbilene — Thu, 23 May 2013 10:56:49 GMT

Linda- Racing here in Texas is in the toillete! Until our legislature pulls their head out, the racing business is bottom of the barrel here. Sure, we have the facilities but we are surrounded by states with good State Bred programs and good purses.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

papillon — Thu, 23 May 2013 04:28:49 GMT

phil--you clearly do not understand the definitions of objective and subjective.

objective refers to completely raw data, devoid of any manipulation, interpretation, flattening, methodology etc., that anyone is able to verify without training or disagreement--it is not subject to debate. objective is descriptive. it answers "what?" and "when? and "where?"

examples include: height, weight, pulse, temperature, blood count, order of finish, raw time, path, time of day, location, post number etc.

subjective refers to anything that is not purely raw data. anything that two people can disagree about is subjective. subjective is explanatory. it answers "why?" and "how?" and "because?"

the very fact that you assign a "flow figure" based upon a "methodology" proves that your figures, just like all other figures, are subjective.

subjective doesn't necessarily mean incorrect, but no one is required to accept anyone else's subjective interpretation of objective facts. and subjective analysis that is not subjected to replication and pier review, which no figures are, is as trust worthy as astrology. and in fact, figures have about the same predictive success rate as astrology...

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

pas — Thu, 23 May 2013 03:06:16 GMT

Dr. D., El, Ted, Johnny, - you guys are killing me! LOL!

Linda and Racingfan - I study all breeds of horses and unfortunately, because the TB is a practical breed that is bred for performance rather than appearance, the JC doesn't seem to denote color standards as strictly as other breeds clubs do. A true roan would have a dark head, and when I looked for it on Oxbow after the race, he didn't. But yes, otherwise, he has that roan sheen to his coat. He may yet grey out. Usually greys start dark and become almost white as they age. But because he's still young, only DNA testing would prove anything at this point. But what a lovely look he has!

Steve - I love your writing and am mostly a reader. I rarely comment, but I knew you could set the record straight on the matter. It may have been a jockey friend of yours that translated it, but it was precipitated by you, and I appreciate it.

Coldfacts - while I think the BCC tie-in is interesting, I don't think it's completely accurate. I know AA is a great sire, but I didn't like him as a racehorse. His trainer ducked Skippy at Monmouth, I believe, even though he would have gotten 14 lbs or so. And I kind of felt as though he benefited from the fact that the BC was at CHD that year. SA finished up the track, as he never liked it there. Whereas at least Unbridled and AP have their TC wins behind them as well as the BCC wins. Does that make sense? I think the TC wins are stronger arguments for their success, and AA is more along the lines of just a well-bred horse that also won the BCC. They really don't all fall into that same category, or seem to produce TC horses for the same reasons.

re: Haskin's Preakness Recap: Ox Tale

TerriV — Thu, 23 May 2013 00:38:27 GMT

Steve you always find a heartwarming, uplifting perspective from which to view every race. I have been fond of Oxbow all season too. Love those feisty colts! But I did really think Orb would win. it's been interesting reading everyone's opinion on what happened with him. I find it impossible to be unhappy about the Preakness though - Stevens, Lukas and Oxbow are just too appealing to resist.

It was an honor to meet you Thursday at Sunrise at Old Hilltop. For years I have printed out your articles to read them over and over. They lift my spirits every time.

My 2 year old granddaughter, who I was holding while we spoke, said over and over with tears in her eyes when the Preakness was over "Orb? Orb? Orb?" She is a fan at 2 and like I told you, has Zenyatta on her bedroom wall. Got to start them early!