Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Slew.em.All — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 20:12:47 GMT

Judging by their works/gallops,the horses that seem to be thriving @ Churchill in my opinion are: IWR-he looks really good gliding over the track,sitting on a big race. POTN-seems to be in tip-top shape,dirt will not be a problem. FF-looks ready and able to step it up following his 7week chillin' period. GQ-love the way he's been galloping over the surface he's used too,big sturdy colt looks to be on top of his game. DP-is handling the track perfectly and looks very good.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Blind Follower — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 19:59:12 GMT

Lol, this is the funniest group of bloggers I have ever read.

Who is this Draynay? Lol, every post he/she writes spouts out Beyers as if they are God's word.

You might want to look at Dunkirk's Beyer again, Draynay. I recall, at one time it was quite a few points lower. You speak of Beyer figures with such confidence, as if you think they are science. One day the Beyer number is this the next it is that and next week it could be something else ( adjustments are constant, lol ). That is not science that you spout so authoritativly, but, just some other guys ( and his helpers ) opinion.

Mathmatics is a science. Three plus three equals six, today, 50 years ago and 50 years from now.

How can your opinion be taken seriously when your entire contention of why one horse is better than another is by mimicking some other guys OPINION ( Beyer )?

Whenever I hear people making arguments about horses and their quality by stating Beyer figures ( as if the figures were accepted by all as precise or even relevant )my thoughts are that those people are either intellectually lazy or they lack a true understanding of this sport and are trying to fake otherwise.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

SSC — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:54:02 GMT

Wanda - FF worked beautifully and I did not notice anything unusual in the gallop out

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

slewofdamascus — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:41:59 GMT

Pretty unfair of Pletcher, imo, regarding TTP and Advice; the connections from the other eligible horses deserve a lot better, but that's why no one will shed a tear if his 0-fer streak in the Derby continues.

Just because it's "his right" to do something or other doesn't mean he has to exercise it. I can't even understand what competitive advantage it gives him to wait? Meanwhile, the connections of the other eligible runners can't make plans, can't do much of anything, certainly can't enjoy the moment thanks to Pletcher.

Jmo, of course.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

draynot — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:40:32 GMT

Even with Quality Road out this field towers over last years pathetic group. There are still 8 horses in here that have produced beyer Figs over 100 at 1 1/16 or longer compared to only 4 last year. Desert Party and Regal Ransom's figs from the other side of the pond translate to 100 or better so they are included. it's going to be a very interesting race indeed.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

MikeG — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:18:54 GMT

Dray - I almost completely agree with you except I believe it will be a two horse race between Dunkirk (108) & Revenge (113 & 103) if it comes down to speed figures. It looks like mostly average horses unless POTN, CC, or MHS jump up huge on dirt like IWR.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Karen2 — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:16:50 GMT

I see they are re-playing that tragic accident on the news. What a sad, sad sight. That poor filly didn't know what hit her. My heart just breaks for her. I also wonder with the warning going off why people weren't paying more attention but I also realize that sometimes these things happen so quick there is no time to respond. Another sad day for our industry. I hope people realize how much most of the people that work with these horses care about them.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Karen2 — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:05:55 GMT

Dray...I'm not sure why I am even responding to your post but you are waaaayyyyy off base by claiming that most of these horses don't belong in the derby. Several of these horses are graded stakes winners. I haven't quite figured out how your mind works and if we even live in the same horse racing world. An "average" group facing Dunkirk??????? These colts are far from average.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Karen in Texas — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:04:43 GMT

I questioned Square Eddie's presence in the Derby field as well, Justine. Glad they recognized the new issues and did the correct thing in withdrawing him.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

longwaytomay — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:52:06 GMT

Draynay, You do amuse me. Do I think Dunkirk has a shot on Sat? Absolutely. Is this a weak field as you say. Absolutely not!! Now that QR is out I think you can make a case for several horses including the Cali horses. I will wait for post positions before I give my final picks, but I will say that POTN, DP, CC, will be in my tri's and supers. You have to make a stand against one of the favorites and right now I'm tossing IWR. Go ahead and blast away Dray, I just don't think the time figs on synthetics is correct. I think it will take several years before Beyer and the others get it right. I feel that right now it is a work in progress.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

DONNA — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:49:22 GMT

LOL Dray. I was wondering who you would jump on next. I really thought it would be Desert Party or Regal Ransom. So now it is Dunkirk. Hope nothing happens to him before the Derby. Seems every horse you toot, you jinx. I want to thank you for not liking Friesan Fire.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

rgw — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:05:54 GMT

From the prez of the win willy fan club.You guys are missing the boat, grab a line before u sink!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

sophiekea — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 13:29:53 GMT

I agree with Easy Goer Fan. I have seen that accident too many times on local news channels as well. Its just awful. And Im wondering why that rider didnt try to move out of the way. The horse was barreling down the track with everybody watching him,sirens were going and so it wasnt that hard to notice him coming.

Down here in Florida they have had Polo deaths, many deaths at the showgrounds,etc...And the TV channels are reporting every tragedy they can with horses.

Anyway, Im going for Summer Bird as the upset in the Derby. He has everything going for him at this point.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

draynay — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:53:07 GMT

Wow... I guess many of you here look at Dunkirk and just don't get it. I guess the 108 he posted and the even higher number he sill post in the Derby mean nothing to you. This horse has raced only 3 times and did not race a 2 but this is NOT a strong group of 3 year old horses. With the Pamplemousse out and Big Drama out and Quality Road out you have a MUCH lower class of horses in the Derby. POTN, IWR, and FF have to deal with Dunkirk and there is no reason to believe any one of them is near good enough or fast enough.

You need foundation? Normally yes.. but this is a very average group facing a very talented Dunkirk. Big Brown won on talent last year and Dunkirk will win on TALENT this year. Maybe you should go back and watch Dunkirks Maiden race to see what the Derby will look like this year. The cheap speed will fall apart and Dunkirk will be off to the races.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

EasyGoerFan — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:29:47 GMT

I'm glad to read that General Quarters looks good. Last week I heard reports that he was sluggish and tired.

I cannot believe the "Today" show is airing the footage of the tragic accident that happened at CD on Monday. NBC is promoting the Derby and they want viewers to see that? Does anybody need to see that? No!!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Justine — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:06:57 GMT

Square Eddie's out. In my opinion he should have never been pointed to the Derby if he was coming off a layoff thanks to shin problems. I hope he and Quality Road come back much healthier horses this summer.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Bill C — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:49:10 GMT

Sorry to hear Quality Road is out he would have been right there I think. This is such a quality field this year that a number could win it I think. I still think I Want Revenge will be hard to beat and the sleeper is Desert Party with General Quarters being my sentimental pick at any rate I'm looking forward to this years Derby and all the coverage up too it.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

rowner — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 08:14:26 GMT

To bad the best horse isn't in the race and the coverage is going to suck on The Oaks, Thanks ESPN!!!! I have to agree this is one tough race to decipher, might just have to resort to well thought out LUCK. I want to know what drays pick is too, I hope he doesn't pick any of mine. I don't want the dray curse .

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Coldfacts — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 06:30:20 GMT

TWO COLTS THAT SHOULD NOT BE EXCLUDED FROM EXOCITS:

On the 8th April I post a thread titled ‘SUMMER BIRD SHORT ON EXPERIENCE BUT LONG ON PEDIGREE, A GOOD EXOTIC INCLUSION’ Those who noted it might have caught the Arkansas Derby tri and super that paid $572 & $1990 respectively. Well, Summer Bird made it to the derby because of injuries and defections. If he was 52-1 in the Arkansas Derby he is likely to be 99-1in the Kentucky Derby. Some will conclude he has no chance of hitting the board, I think otherwise. Summer Bird entered the Arkansas Derby of a maiden special victory. He was facing two graded stakes winners and three graded placed finishers. In spite of his overwhelming odds and gross lack of experience he was only beaten 1 1/4L closing from another zip code.

Papa Clem, the victor in the Arkansas Derby was beaten 1/2L by POTN in the Robert Lewis and he in turn had 1L on IWR. Both Pap Clem and IWR left CA to race on the dirt. IWR won the Gotham & Wood against undistinguished opponents. Papa Clem was beaten by two times graded staked winner Friesan Fire on his dirt debut. He won his second attempt against multiple graded stakes winners Old Fashioned and graded stakes winner Win Willy. One can conclude that Papa Clem faced far better company than IWR whom he defeated in their only meeting. Papa Clem’s winning time AK Derby was 1:49.01. IWR wining time for the Wood was 1:49.49. It will be argued IWR had a problem plagued trip. The same can be said about Papa Clem. IWR’s problem was walking out of the gates, PC’s problem was a very fast and talented Old fashioned on an uncontested lead. If IWR walked out of the gates and had to track splits of 22.65, 46.19, 1:11.15 and 1:36.75 instead of 24.50, 48.13, 1:12.32 and 1:37.33 he would be 20 lengths last. I happen to think Papa Clem is better than IWR the likely ML favorite for the Derby.

Now this is the measurement by which Summer Bird’s achievement must be gauged. He passed Papa Clem immediately past the post in the gallop out. If we concur that Papa Clem is better than IWR and he was only able to beat a maiden winner by 1 1/4L, then this horse is a live exotic bet at an enormous price.

Folks the more I look at Summer Bird’s pedigree the more he appeals. He has a double dose of Northern Dancer via his sons Storm Bird (1980 Champion 2-year-old in England & Ireland) and Nijinsky (1970 English Triple Crown winner) This double dose of Northern Dancer makes this colt extremely dangerous.

The next colt is Square Eddie. I know he has been off for a long time his fitness may be in question. I leant that during his period away from the track he has been active in an equine pool. Clearly swimming alone will not be enough to make a horse totally fit but it has immense value. His race in the Lexington will put on the finishing touches to this talented colt and he will be dangerous on Derby day. Why do I consider him to be a great exotic inclusion? Well, he defeated POTN in the Lanes End Futurity by 8L in his first race of the plane from Great Briton. He repeated the feat in the Breeders’ Cup juvenile. They have not met since and clearly POTN has improved but so too has Square Eddie. In a derby that has lost most of the speed horses, Square Eddie has the speed to be forwardly placed, a position from which POTN has never headed him. POTN has lost two of his last six races and on both occasions Square Eddie was ahead of him. POTN is likely to be joint ML favorite and Square Eddie a colt that was only 11/4L behind the 2008 2YO champion Midshipman in the BCJ, will likely be at long odds. NB: 1983 Derby winner Sunny's Halo spent most of his time leading up to the derby training in an equine swimming pool. You have been informed.

I will be playing both colts along with Musket Man behind my choice to win Regal Ransom.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

slewofdamascus — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 05:15:03 GMT

If the New York Sharpies have anything to say about it (think Circular Quay), Desert Party could make his presence felt on the parimutuel end of things Saturday afternoon. And sprung by Street Cry, it's hard not to take this animal seriously, I must say, regardless of his light experience and questionable running companions ("Company Grade": C).

Desert Party, like his stablemate, RR, had to ship half way around the world to get here, and while Godolphin looks like they have finally found a trainer and a system (buy everything that moves) that might be able to bring home this long-sought prize, the best possible prism from which to view their chances with RR and DP is the past.

An improvemment is surely in order, but I could not back a win at a lower than expected price with only 4 lifetime starts in the case of Desert Party. I think Pletcher has a better chance to win with his runners, personally. That's not an endorsement, however. Desert Party may find his way onto the bottom end of my tris and supers. If he wins, I'll be bust.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

slewofdamascus — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 04:55:31 GMT

POTN will undoubtedly garner significant action on Saturday, with his very public flirtation with the Churchill strip and his newly minted HOF trainer, Bob Baffert, giving a leg up to the equally gifted jockey, Garrett Gomez. The money will certainly flow like a certain green libation. 2nd choice seems likely, if he's not vying for favortism with IWR.

POTN is the only horse in the field I have a given a "Talent Grade" of A+, thus, margainaly speaking, I consider him to be the gold standard in the race. I believe - strongly - that the best horses ran in California this year and last (as it happens).

However, the difference is not so great (imo) that he can't get himself beat by being too anxious too early in the race. I give out "Mental Grades", as well, for each prep, and his was a B- in the SA Derby - he was not giving Gomez what he asked for and he was rank, in fact - hence, I don't consider him to be the "Best Bet" in the race, although if he relaxes and gets a trip they are all running for second, imo. He could also run off the board if he does not relax, something that must be considered a strong possibility because of his SA Derby. I'm picking him 3rd.

IWR has the opposite problem, in a certain respect. Sometimes, he's so laid back, he doesn't bother to run much, see the Robert Lewis to get an idea of what that looks like. With Joe Talamo in the irons, the possibility exists that IWR will be left with too much to do and too many horses to navigate around when the real running commences. The other possibility is that he uses IWR's tactical speed to get good early position and moves too soon thereafter. The third possibility is that Young Jow rides the perfect race in his first mount at 19yo. If he were 10-1, I could live with these distinctly different possibilities and just Believe. Not happening. I'm picking him 4th.

Stay tuned for my win and place selctions.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Matthew W — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 04:01:36 GMT

Steve Pioneerof The Nile had the kind of work I hoped he would have--slower--and I hope he takes hold on Sat--He'll be at a disadvantage with Freisan Fire as FF should be up on the pace but I would not trade hands with Baffert here--I also love Hold Me Back AND your Flying Private--Lukas/Baffert have paid big in the Derby Exacta! It's Derby Week!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Barbara — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 03:54:56 GMT

Steve,

do you like how Friesan Fire looks in terms of condition, coat, etc. Guess he was ready to do something today, eh?

Thanks.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Barbara — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 03:34:34 GMT

Great report!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Monday Madness

Mike — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 01:48:48 GMT

FF looks to be the smart choice for this Derby as he should be sitting on a big race and wont be caught like Hard Spun. I wish QR didnt have the quarter crack and was still in to keep the price better however. Dunkirk should be sitting on a big effort also.